hello and welcome to cross talk all things considered i'm peter lavelle the end of a love story will tensions in the u.s. german relationship determine the fate of nato and if elected will joe biden be america's version of the soviet ruler lenin who.

discuss this and more i'm joined by my guest bundy's and a slow he is an associate professor at the university of southeastern norway as well as the author of russia's geo economic strategy for a greater eurasia and in budapest we have george samuel he is author of bombs for peace nato's humanitarian war on yugoslavia right gentlemen crossed up rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate ok let's go to also 1st there's a lot of discussion about trump's decision to move i think what $12000.00 troops out of germany and the the the theme is that coming out of the white house germany is not paying its nato bills but that's i'm not satisfied with that explanation oh by the way it's bipartisan it's a bad idea everyone knowing i know everyone that knows me watching this program i think nato should be dissolved completely but nonetheless and you know the top line story here is misplaced this is about a fraught relationship that germany has had with. in nato with the united states

leading that alliance since the end. since the knot in the end in the end of the 1940 s. all the way to the end of the cold war in 1901 so there's something much bigger in play here go ahead. well trungpa obviously is a much much bolder than his predecessors and you are correct this is something that's always been yeah some tensions in the relationship has always gone on for example throughout the cold war americans were to a large extent concerned about some of the european integration and us remember after the cold war you had meddling albright to cautioning the europeans that you know the e.u. should not be a couple from nato remember that nato system in these situations now. is because well they are simply because the european integration and the ablest this continent to use collective bargaining power to have greater equality in relations with united states so this is quite normal for any country why would you cooperate with

27 to 27 countries seeking. in the negotiate from business a signal strength and they always have the incentive to deal with one state individual instead of a bilateral basis and then maximize their influence however to us nonetheless membership support of european integration of least a certain extent because that provides the price united states with a very powerful lot was very important to recognize this dilemma that the u.s. always space saw a strong e.u. weakens the u.s. within the west however a stronger a partnership with the e.u. then also becomes a source of collect intentionally and us to empower a strong partner who can hold together now i think now in the last few years this relation bents began to change largely because of the rise of asia with china at the center because the u.s. wants to spend less on europe this older began with obama however they want more loyalty to the u.s. in terms of use our energy our technologies our corporations our transportation course banks etc etc so and

a lot of others on europeans they want more autonomy so and at the same time to still want americans to pay for security so this is a relationship that's always been. out some tensions and it's always been the go. or should and i think what we're seeing now is that has to be read the fine and i think it's a mistake to simply dismiss it trumping iraq exact not saying that he's not erratic . well i mean erratic i mean you know use of moved in troops to another country like poland ok the u.s. promised it would do at the end of the cold war also i find it really quite amusing that you know this bipartisan hair on fire is that you know it's going to cost too much money to do relocate these assets here george they never complain about the cost of the military when they're escalating but they do complain when they deescalate why interesting go ahead george rove had said that's exactly right it's laid the one item in the budget that never causes any controller seen washington

that's the military budget that just sails through. trying to propose a 730000000000 the democrats say 717 mil 1000000000 are less split the difference i think to some 65000000000 i mean that just if you just waltz us through proly apparent control or see in the the bitter fighting between the democrats and republicans militaries. and of course in this case trump's proposal to withdraw all these 12000 troops from germany has indeed been attacked by actually i mean both democrats and republicans have condemned. drums with rope and opposed that's always the case the moment there's any discussion of withdrawing u.s. troops so many ways whether it's syria again bipartisan hysteria withdraw from afghanistan. and remember. the whole story of the russian bounties

on the u.s. servicemen you know you don't mean the story only wheeled out precisely at the time when he seems like where u.s. troops are about to leave. just as the trunk wants to withdraw from syria we saw here. the gallant cuts we must save the cars the cars are of the greatest ally in the world so i would expect at some point you know maybe next week some stories along the lines of that some russian john plot taking place in bali and putin is engineering some kind of a major crisis in john many so we mustn't absolutely mustn't. withdraw any troops from germany the less this always fits into a pattern and of course you're absolutely right with withdrawing troops of germany in fact you know making steps to you know bring this nato this museum really lets us know those political strategic books to an end can only be

a good thing i mean sadly i think we're still a long way from that at least it seems like a step in that direction you know big claim you know and reading the main mainstream media press on this topic here never once did i come across that public opinion poll consistently in germany would like to see the american treat troops leave their country for 75 years after the bank wishing of nazi germany but it's never mentioned in the press that you know they the troops they're just not wanted they're not needed and and really what this gets it what's coming into for here in your 1st answer was quite eloquent is that you just have american exceptionalism against european ideas of security and they're clashing head let it well the mission of nato has changed because it will initially when it came to place the whole argument was a western europe was very much we can from the war and americans needed to stay

there until they could be temporarily strengthened and then leave them and this was the famous quote eisenhower when he was the supreme commander of nato he argued that you know in one in 51 the are going for still there in 10 years this whole mission would have failed because we didn't build up their p. and some didn't. back well no the situation just show a strategy for understeer is no so it union 2nd year is very much rebuilt but that's what's got before they keep purpose now it's just our structure which emerged during the cold war which is the u.s. base for security and the europeans largely it to us are told but you're also correct that there is a discrepancy between the political leadership and the population mean almost every year to do this poll so who's the greatest who disagrees threat to international security come from and almost all america's allies say united states so that there is this. is the difficulty in the relations. so i think we with that argument i think within washington you get 2 different perspectives

one is trumps argument essentially you know we have to punish the germans because they would do us we're told and if you're shifting the troops in iraq then you're essentially punishing them so i'm trying to respect that he's actually saving they don't by having this punishment and reward based on their loyalty to the united states it's more from congress you get this other perspective which is you know if you alienate. you know the europeans the germans spent effectively you're handing them over to the russians and chinese that this could be a kremlin conspiracy you know i mean yes there is it's actually very multi-dimensional is george i mean they ever since they got drunk talked about it when he was a chant in the president is that there's been a theory out there is it you know forcing the european countries or you the nato members to spend more weight in the nation they did these nato members would realize well why are we spending so much money because it really isn't a threat to our security here and that would be a way for example say see if i force you to pay more you don't want to be more than

you see if there is no threat you know me and they actually spend it coming to fruition in a very near where they'll head. yes that was the. the argument and that's and that's a very reasonable which is that you know ok you telling us that you're terribly frightened that this terrible big russian bear in the east ok fine and they some more you know but you know why are we protecting you you're the one who supposedly in the front line so when they say labby i know we said we're at the front line but we don't actually mean that we have spent more they said ok fine and we're not going to spend any more so that was that was a reasonable argument but trump also had a deeper argument which is that europe has become an economic rival to the united states i mean it was one thing to. build up the you know europe's defenses in the 1950 s. and 160 s.

but even from like the seventy's on. west germany and that's was a lot of the time is now becoming a serious economic rival to the united states now you know 4550 years on it we can see the results of this so that it doesn't make very little sense for the united states to be subsidizing a power that is really an economic giant i mean this makes me a salute you know sense and trump realizes this but of course you know there's a huge powerful well oiled atlanticist establishment that is absolutely hell bent on slaughtering any attempt to. disentangle this relationship so yeah they're they're just they're just too many careers built on this ok i mean the 5000 nato bureaucrats on the continent as well i mean they you know that's the been their entire future one of the interesting things that i find interesting is that with this i mean the polls want they want to build for trump and they want

american troops permanently stationed in poland again that would be against the agreements made ending. the confrontation end in europe with the dissolving of the force. but doesn't poland stay standing like this its position is not really divided nato internally even more because it shows that there is no kind of unified understanding of what the alliance is supposed to do i mean this is an alliance in search of a mission and the poles are stepping up and defining it for the rest of the member countries go ahead. well that was already a concern by when poland and others joined nato because of the cold war there was some concern among for example germany that they didn't want to go into russia they believed that there was able to ice on working relationship with them meanwhile the poles pretty much just wanted to be on the other side of the wall so continued ass and russian alliance not

a solution for nato what you do the western europeans don't want to name russia south threats and the eastern europeans want to label russia as the solution was essential to strategic ambiguity in order just about democracy stable government and you know with friends to russia and. i think to this the guarantee to us russia which is against expansionism and up will trigger this security guarantee and wish to converse from being this organization for democracy to again containing russia so that was the strategic i think you need you need a huge military budget should have been european democracy i'm not sure i really comprehend that gentlemen i'm going to jump in here we're going to go to a short break now to let you know you're special and some real news day.

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welcome back to cross off were all things are considered i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're talking about some real names. ok george it's switch gears here none of us are doctors here obviously and but we're all perceptive about politics that's what we do basically for a living in one form or another and watching joe biden i mean it's really it's quite shocking that we've gotten down to a candidate it could be the democrats of a rally behind if tepidly that is challenged ok he's challenging it in a pariah he in ways you know that we all know that this is it domestically this is all an anti trump gambit that's very very clear ok it's not voting for joe it's

voting against donald trump but if we do have this bite and ministration the implications are enormous how would the outside world see this who's in charge entered into an agency consensus who's in charge of that i mean it would send a very ambiguous message to the international system go ahead george. yes that's it tell you right. what's very sad here is of course how cynical the democrats have been all of this after all biden's physical and mental deterioration well as apparent throughout the primaries everybody could see it i mean the candidates themselves on the stage was seen to be sniggering at his office decrepitude yet they all running around him they'd all stand why is this because they were absolutely determined to defeat donald trump and they thought that lunch bucket joe

with this suppose it links to the in mid industrial midwest would somehow be the one person who could be absolutely guaranteed to defeat trump now it's becoming clear that this is really very problematic as people do see. that this is you know how can he last 4 years let alone 8 years so who is going to be running the country now his rise the outside world is concerned well there are no doubt the atlantis is establishment types were very powerful in europe who would welcome oh it's great this day the rich ah no the the obama crowd all the all the safe air of hands for george or maybe even the flipside of what you just said is that an empty vessel that we can fill yes yes yes that's right so that i think i like of that i don't tell him i owe you know you know russia's a rat you know we got to you know spend more here move troops you know yeah go

along with all that so yes no doubt. happy about this but it's a very dangerous situation because to have somebody in the oval office who really isn't up to the job so he could either make absolutely reckless foolish decision or all of the. it will be made by people who have not been elected to anything and what their own agenda that's the point you know you know glenn you know historically you know we had winston churchill in his 2nd stint as prime minister he was exhibited mental deficiencies obviously brezhnev the soviet leader he died in power and even ronald reagan in the waning days of his 2nd term in office that would be change became obvious that he was having some problems as well now i'm describing 3 individuals historically 3 important historical individuals at the end of their government power service ok we're talking about

a guy that's going in to the white house i mean that should send alarm bells should not go ahead mark. yeah good health a key difference that it's not end of his term. i agree with fear i was sent before i think that that idea i didn't is why they want to bring him in because. household name who's part of the old guard was with obama and this is very much an anti trump platform and. they meant the message of this campaign will be a return to the normal and he especially were a sense the positive idea biden bucks the realities of this is a great difference with its cognitive abilities according to quite probably and i hope agree that's a sense of. the progress of their as well because keep in mind that the democrats have all for the last 4 years now been criticizing the mental state i would save

quite reasonably pointing to his narcissism on the other running a candidates roost similarly struggling with dementia also. does doesn't bring up a lot of moral issues so. what's going to it's all about winning now of course a whopping after he wins 1st their office. become string together a simple sentence i think. this is going to be president and the for the rest of the allies especially in europe they're going to see. one they like more than trump but also one not well qualified to leap so i'm against the sooners remember much this and to missile. george i mean with the most loot one of the most important elements to keep the international system stable is certainty what can what can you expect i mean in this case i mean when i look at you know last 3 and a half years truman on the margins pushed back against this injury agency consensus but we could have though i'm in the white house in january that will have no

resistance whatsoever it was going to it will sign you know well i'll sign anything i mean that you know and then who's making those decisions that didn't. i'm in so the world you know unelected bureaucrats that like that's going to create a lot of uncertainty in my mind go ahead yes yes and what we've seen during the trump years and before all is that that unelected bureaucracy is a public menace. they have been pushing their agenda they have ignored the elected president they are the one who actually ran on the platform they simply said well we don't care about his policy was he ran on we the people in charge because as you say we are the interagency consensus so if i was a dangerous situation how much more likely it will this be on the bike and i mean a lot of might well enjoy you have a good time you don't have to do anything you know spent time with your family you

know you know playing croquet whatever you want to there will run everything. and who are the people going to be running it and they will be people like. fiona hill . all that crowd who kind of came out of the woodwork during the trump yes it will quite frightening in the kind of pathological view of the well they have they will be in charge and you know this is a real serious threat to democracy i mean what is it like or having elections if the people who are running the country i don't think to do with any of these elections and they don't run on anything you know they did that's a perfect good point because it just shows you know they continue divorce between foreign policy issues and the democratic process ok you know one of the things i find really disturbing is that in the last 3 and a half years troops foreign policy is been all over the place i think that's a fair assessment i think the fact that it's been all over the place has actually

created debate now mostly against him from the interagency consensus but in a bitin ministration we won't even have that debate will insist be is if for. he just this is completely separated off into a different realm because whoever is assuming the oval office in january will have to deal with a pandemic an economic turndown social unrest here and what i worry is like when george was alluding to is that you know going to have a small you know little cabin in area will get will take care of the rest ok and you know those people taking care of the rest happened just last year is record over the last 40 years. and i would also add that what is going to do to this notion of a haitian of the country to trust in the political class given mind of one of the reasons why people voted for trump even people who didn't care much for mr want to throw a wrench into the system because that distrust of the political class and the media fossick have the grown at a huge level which is very much definition of populism when people feel that

alienated from the political cause. they believe the political class or to distance from them and then you have trump in power and the 1st thing they see is the political cost effectively trying to taking down with this russia gave them other things other ways as a denying the results of the election hillary obviously leading living it and now once she said ok so i don't care much for the way he leads a list by the time he's gone now they're going to put in biden who does not have. it who seems to have dementia and he seems to be the center vessel which again the political east can control it for those in the united states who are not happy with how the political system is going this is going to probably have a huge reaction this time maybe more from the political right to who will question the legitimacy just like the left can legitimately of challenge the right will not recognize the legitimacy really applied and not because he may in state election

but because. of his mental state well i mean look we have a political system that is now rooted in disbelief. ok i mean it is so partisan george and i have talked about this privately a number of times that no matter who is the clip of in a picture in november the country's going to explode ok and there's no doubt about it in my mind george that we're rapidly running out of time one of the things i find really. again to the point of bizarre is that you know how this plotlines matter we've got you know tackling systemic racism and all of that whole narrative that is in the wake of the of the bike juggernaut as it were in the basement but it meaning there's no reflection that the american foreign policy particularly since the end of the 2nd world war has as it dealt very very harshly with people of color around the world you can look at southeast asia you can look at iraq you can look at afghanistan you look at syria i mean there's no reflection is there i mean it's

all internal they don't see how foreign policy has been played out to the detriment of their quote unquote own values about fighting races go ahead yes that's a very good point that that's exactly that that kind of absolute a heap ocracy oh you know we really care about you know people of cholera except when they're living abroad i mean then then we really don't care but then they just become. i get so frightening that syrians you know that all people of color iraqis they're not people of color you know we can just go on then the smithereens just going back to the point about what the agenda of the interagency consensus there is no question of these people are want revenge against russia i mean they they are furious that over 2016 and one of those dangerous aspects of the biden presidency will be. this crowd that will seek for pain look for payback against russia i mean

and i think that will prove lady who lived through a based on allegations a myth and a hoax ok g.'s the politico. well it really is a cult ok because it's not based on empirical evidence it's based on fury resentments and revenge that's what we might get in january all right gentlemen that's all the time we have i want to thank my guests and also in budapest and i want to make our viewers are watching us here are you see an x. and remember. how can you explain love i've been to 82 countries i did in 12 but i came here and on those 3 days i just go to the pope. and he kept pretty his name sake show.

i made my decision to come here because i felt i knew i could build a new life you see with the. companies and. i was a free man but i think god decided that this money is no good to create a profile and it would only have ended t.v. there my one dream is that all my children find the same kind of happiness i do. i love my home here i love cold weather i like the culture i like the history i like everything about it almost. thought i was i know that. i am join a russian fama. i

know team no crowd. no shots. factions felt. trapped no 1st. quench your thirst for action. join me every thursday on the alex salmond show and i'll be speaking to guest of the world of politics sports business i'm show business i'll see you then. a mandate i'll get out to. head the he. and i are now and be to me that i the head that i take the the halley's abut auda not good enough little buddy of the builder who bought it got it done because the ball must have

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