it's a mystery so it's a grip on the. spirit of a tradition trivia for you both these to today it's a studio actually the person who goes to revoke or should stay in the spirit of. expressed. it's a week since i'm restless once again triggered in the united states police shot a black man in the back in a city you can no ship of the incident also provides a pre-election opportunity both democrats and republicans. also in the week just gone the kremlin friends off claims that poison probably didn't opposition into mr lex in about an exciting limited medical evidence and the final russian doctors found no trace of toxins in his system. the year after teenager harry duggan was killed in a road accident in the united kingdom the campaign continues to get his alleged

killer to face justice she's a u.s. diplomats wife and fled the country. ok i'll return to with an in-depth look at our top news stories i said and i was time to stay with us so cross talk is a. hello and welcome to cross top where all things are considered on people about economics is called the dismal science for reason it is often imprecise and almost always open to seeing what you want to see in many ways economics remains in our however the economic situation sets us all know is much more than about our it's about the way. we will live for this foreseeable future are we witnessing

a recovery if so what kind of. discussing the economy and more i'm joined by my guest daniela de martino boogy is an daoist she is the c.e.o. and chief strategist for quill intelligence a research and a linux firm she is also be author of fed up an insider's take on why the federal reserve is bad for america as well as they call mr bloomberg view and in new york we cross to marshall are actually is a research associate for the levy institute at our college a contributor to independent media institute as well as a member of america compass or a newly established think tank form to restore an economic consensus that into sizes the importance of family community and industry to the nation's liberty and

prosperity crossed up rules in effect that means you can jump in if you don't want and i always appreciate ok let me go to our national 1st in new york last week we came out with some new jobs numbers and it was quite surprising for a lot of people that was a row of jobs growth probably over 2000000 though there seems to be some all of the issues now which was interesting in itself. which gives people reason to believe that there is some kind of recovery and i would really would like in this program to be politicized that i don't want to talk about who whose advantage it is ok because that's it's turned into a political football and we may be dealing with something that is it can to be the great depression so i think we have to take it very seriously so marshall i mean we in some kind of recovery or is it too early to say more or recovery in some sectors and not others kind of you know unpack it for us without getting too political the look that the idea is if you in. if you go if you if you stop

a car you know you're going 100 miles an hour then you stop a car then and it goes to 0 and then you. celebrate and it goes 20 miles an hour of course you know the car is moving again and. and so course that that's progress but you are still far from seeing that automobile move operated at maximum efficiency so leaving aside this testicle ledge meant there are there is about what i'm sure we'll get into that yes there's been some recovery but you are still dealing with some you've still got some profound long term structural issues which i think are far from being resolved your opinion it's one of the things that you know 2 a situation like 2 very sudden because this was this was self-inflicted it the kind of it was turned off it was a it was it a choice ok but as we come into this recovery if you know the word recovery is appropriate but he trying to reveal some of the structural problems that were in

the economy in the 1st place and i think that that's something that we need to look at is well because i belong to lamented people talking about these really big macro economic numbers that doesn't really always tell you very much about the economy or what how the markets are you know i mean you know you come out with you know these different various job reports and then the markets are soaring and they seem so disconnected because it really doesn't have much to do with the average working family. you know that's exactly right and i think that the reason that the economy was kind of on a weak footing coming into this year is why we've had the rebound in the stock market that we have and that is that the federal reserve kept interest rates at artificially low levels for so many years that non-financial business debt in this country was allowed to double so it was an accident waiting to happen so to speak and once that accident. it happened you know that the blackest of black swans then

we saw a much faster underground filling in the corporate bond market and what would have been expected and that was just it was just a by product of them being as over levered as they were which prompted the fed to ride to the rescue and do things that it's never done such as get into the high yield bond market and rescue companies that have been downgraded which is set off what we call animal spirits the likes of which we've never seen now we have individual that there's this smallest of retail investors pumping up things like insolvent companies such as j.c. penney and hertz that have actually declared bankruptcy filed for chapter 11 and yet investors in general are so convinced that because of the fed's extraordinary actions to contain the outfall of the credit market the credit bubble bursting that the fed no matter what happens is going to have their back with i

mean that's like the fed choosing winners i mean is that really help big for the economy because it again that's kind of been evolution i mean that's a choice it's not really market forces as we're always told to worship here i find that really quite bewildering and what is the doing if you're buying corporate bonds i mean this is this is it's it's not creating an even playing field how do you explain what the current what the fed is doing right now its credit allocation but what the end result is is the likes of price distortion the likes of which we've never seen it is almost impossible whether you're investing in a bond or a stock right now to say what it's inherent underlying value is you've got 40 percent for example of the standard and poor's $500.00 it's pulled guidance all earnings guidance for the year so if you're talking about the most traditional valuation metric the price to earnings. you know it's kind of undefined right now.

i mean we're an absolutely extraordinary times and yet we have the markets at all time highs that is what that policy is creating and the irony is that you know corporations have tacked on an additional trillion dollars of debt in very short order and this is just going to make them that much weaker than they were coming into the year if we don't have a true the shaped recovery and i mean fully shaped recovery this is going to leave that sector that much weaker and more issue one of the things that's coming to my mind one thing of the financial reporting is that it's almost is if half the economy isn't necessarily anywhere how do people in the economy for it to continue to move forward i find that really quite bewildering because again if you look at you know a lot of financial news you know people are upbeat you know and of course you know you know. these major corporations that were bailed out 1st you know the fed has

their back so i mean it's like someone said to me rather disparagement there are back in the shower drinking why the good part of the country doesn't feel that i mean if you have even more beer on the street i think that's right and your point about the fed so i think the winners and losers i don't even think it's winners and losers i think the fed is it's whether you're politically well connected to the extent of the bailouts really have it's a is a function of how well established craig's banking relationships were which is why the programs like p.p.p. have not worked out well because for small businesses that employ say 15 people you're not going to have the same kind of relationships with with j.p. morgan as a large multinational corporation will not that and that's no fault of. the banks percent i mean that's understandable but here are the point i mean i think been a long standing problem we've had a serious deterioration in the open all of you have jobs eat. as we were coming to

full employment and i think that's been a longstanding problem it's been brutally exposed the underlying sense about economy for a long period of time and as you point out this post pandemic response has actually exacerbated the problem it's we instead of fixing it we've actually made it worse you know then you know it's in when people talk about a recovery i think it's more germane to say recovery for home i mean that's really the question we have to ask because i think i know it's easily politicized i'm not i'm i'm deeply conservative person and i can easily politicize it myself but you know the the issue is here is that we need to have a recovery it are the right people to be on the on the receiving end. and that's exactly right you know right now the narrative in the media is that everything associated with any of the pain of the corona crisis is temporary in nature there

will be no hermant a consequences of what we're seeing right now and yet we know that small businesses as they look to reopen. and the for a generation now we've had small businesses focused on an unbearable low crisis labor at the expense of capital expenditures now and in a world where so many consumers are going to be going to have anxiety about social distancing now you're going to have an opposite trend of small businesses looking to invest in capital expenditures and automate to have a faster extent than they have kind of like the medium and large sized companies in america have already certainly started that process but you're going to actually have even the small businesses that employ 47 percent of americans prior to the current of the current of our virus outbreak you're going to have an even smaller segment of the population that is brought into and under the small business umbrella and which is a

a main huge foundation and source of innovation and entrepreneurship that is traditionally been a job creation engine so i'm truly concerned about what the aftermath of this is going to look like you know martially with the with the jobs report that we got last week when we're inside is the big dig kannan mean what sectors of the economy you think that these jobs came from because again there was a lot of people have occasion about these numbers and i i kind of think that was politically influence but i mean they gave economy small 'd businesses which trying to small businesses or is it like this amazon just got another 100000 well to your point about the the problems with the numbers themselves if part of the. if occulting ironically it's the that we have these new programs like the government grant programs whereby funding was extended to companies who kept on

their payroll or sustain their payroll for the duration of the crisis so when the they were in this anomalous position of being paid but they weren't doing anything and the b.l.s. at the end of its report indicated that these people were counted as employed of though they are the facto unemployed so and if you actually made adjustments haven't you had a 16 percent unemployment rate so so i but look even if we look at 13 percent that's still one of the highest numbers we've had since the great depression bit the growth came in a lot of instances simply from reopening the economy so that you know even if it's 50 percent you know you're hiring back some steps a worker at restaurants again or other services that have been closed down i mean i'm in new york and most of the economy still shut down here in new york city but in other places it's comparatively open so so clearly there's an impact map and you have to ask yourself whether a lot of these industries like retail leisure restaurants are ever going to recover

from the prepared demichelis levels at least for several years to come i mean you're restaurants will be operating at 50 percent capacity as an example could be considered are you making any money i mean i know one people work in the restaurant business when they have 100 percent capacity to make their job no that's right that's right i mean if i mean as i said in new york there's a ton of small restaurants and a paper high rents they're not going to be able to make it and and that's not unique or on the country then of course some you know we're doing this on zoom lots of teleconferencing in telecommuting mean done zoom so that means less or less travel less airplanes boeing was having problems even before this latest crisis they'll probably make it as a sub. a contract for the pentagon but their civilian business could go straight down the tubes so there is that there are some real problems going in regard to his status you know any bailing out an airline company that doesn't make good airlines

anymore really google ready we're going to we're going to go to a short break not let or break we'll continue our discussion there recovering state our.

join me every thursday on the alex simon chill and i'll be speaking to guest of the world of politics or business i'm showbusiness i'll see of. well the much across up were all things are considered i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're discussing the state of the economy. and then you'll excuse me go to let's talk about what the government is doing and not doing you know you can call it a bailout you can call a stimulus package we can talk about the timing of it all 1. what is this

stop the freefall was it basically meaningless because they were bailing out people that have more money than god anyway and using that the tax code i mean that's that's that's fine when you have high employment you can redistribute wealth or you have so many people unemployed they're not paying payroll at all and we can talk about the derivative issue of health care if you don't have a job has the government done the right thing for the working people of america i'm not talking about the rich working people go well you know it's interesting you raise that issue because consumer confidence among the lowest quintile and the 2nd to lowest quintile has recovered at the fastest pace in fact we're seeing consumer confidence among those who make between 75099000 a year continue to slump as layoffs begin to move into white collar industries my

greatest concern about giving the lowest income earners and an additional $600.00 a month out to the end of july and well we'll see if that is extended or not. is that it's provided a false sense of security to an income cohort that will then be at the end of this stimulus period still facing the same traumatic financial consequences as they faced before and i refer to cop cars being repossessed or rental evictions and in fact you've seen more reticence just in the last few days among potential car buyers and one of their chief concerns is that there's going to be an expiration of the moratorium on rental evictions so the question is have you have you just bought a little bit of time while demand a structured is occurring in the background such that you're not just going to have people and why call a positions but also people at the lowest income runs out of work and will there be

the political wherewith all to address what really needs to be addressed which is figuring out a way to secure jobs as opposed to keeping people on effective universal basic income which has which is really what has been created by congress and has resulted in a disproportionate number of you of u.s. workers being called back to work and saying no i'm collecting a lot more right now than i was before so the incentive system is just all catty wankers to use a very technical term and i worry about what's going to happen on the other side of this because the fate of so many millions of americans rests in congress right now yeah and. those funds that were sent out i would have no match in the great deal of issues to pay off debts to if that's what people are using the money for it because they don't know i mean they worry if you know if there's light at the end of the

tunnel it's really going to be another train coming in their direction i think that's really the analogy here marcia what do you think of how the government is responding to this because i must say this from a moralistic point of view you know they kind of wipe their hands they've been on big. ation you know i mean there are tens of millions of the emergencies out there in the country people losing their jobs. you know and i'm you know as a conservative. i don't you know my 1st reaction is limited government i don't like people becoming dependent on the government i think that anything that the government should do should keep families together in people and work and then that's the derivative. in an emergency in the blocks want to bend like this i think that you know if you can't use the argument we don't have any money we have plenty of money for their friends and their special interests here but in the end you brings up this really important issues that you know how much is the people good and creating or creating relief but without creating dependency because there is

that issue people say why should we go back to our i'm getting a check ok i know we. are short answer to that is that you know come july 1st of these for now those checks won't be coming anymore which does raise the problem that. brought up and what happens afterwards if there is not a job to go back to look it's it's an unusual situation because you effectively have created it's been the government that has created this mass unemployment in order to deal with a public pandemic. they have put the economy into a deep freeze. and to you we can i don't want to discuss whether that was the right of the wrong thing to do in terms of locked in but the fact is you knew it instantaneously created mass unemployment but if you want to sustain political support for those relief efforts then you've got to make sure that you do it properly and i think the europeans have done a better job of that than than we have in the sense that many of them have just

gone straight to a a nationalized payroll and that to me that would've been a more desirable way to go because you're it's less politicized you all you don't have to create a whole bunch of new bureaucracy to do it you you have the the. data within the the . the i.r.s. for exactly it's easy it's easy enough to to get those checks to those people from existing base but if you think payroll and it would have taken out a lot of the government discretion and a lot of the political problems that you that you've raised so denmark norway did that even the conservative government of johnson says the tories covered about 80 percent of salaries up to think $30000.00 pounds so that to me would have been a much better way to go of course as the economy recovers you do want to wean people off point is that if you're the one responsible for throwing people out of course then i think there is a moral obligation to make sure that they that they are compensated for that and

likewise in regard businesses i say you don't want to create profit windfall but there is a a constitutional clause in the us constitution that the takings provision which assumes that which mandates that you compensate misses for any of the sustain which as a result of government action now i don't think you can get them when all profits but at the same time. they should be compensated for their fixed costs they've been they would have otherwise incurred i think that would have been a fair way to sustain support from their side and being consistent with constitutional provisions that we have here and only only if i agree with it that would be the moral thing to do perhaps it's a common sense thing to do at the same time i mean if you you know you eternally economy on which i don't think in the history of ever this is ever been tried. ok and we all saw it ok and when you have the last right the most

929 when you you wonder still what was happening i mean if you were money a market maker you want everything is coming to heart this is something that we didn't understand and we all kind of walked through to the. are what you wrote what's going on here it seems to me that not only was it would've been the morals this decision but if you wanted to switch back to her you would have time for a better chance of the moving parts you more or less the same as they were but now we're in a very different environment. we are and i won't take credit for this idea it was actually it was actually articulated 1st by mark cuban who said you know the i.r.s. has access to all of these bank accounts of all these small businesses why don't you just give them overdraft protection until the end entire national economy is ready to reopen and rather than this patchwork that we've seen where arizona opens quickly and now it's hospitals are becoming overwhelmed and texas is open very

quickly and now we've got we've got record levels of coronavirus cases so you've got this this this piecemeal approach to reopening because there is this need to get that you know through the business doors open so that we can get back to work i get that but had you had a much more who ward 8 it blanket national approach i think that there would have been a lot more calm among the small business owners of the country and more of that kind of a for lack of better word congeniality if you will nationwide as opposed to what we've ended up with which is a ton of divisiveness that we all know serves absolutely no purpose. marshaling then you know i always explain to the north americans about the virtues and then the downside of having the kind of country the united states has because we have states ok and i constantly telling my friends that governors can say no to the president i mean. they were elected in their state that's what the response to do

and you know it's very very confusing but you know this is one of those downsides here and we all pretty much kept our promise not to politicize this but it was because of oh it's i don't think it was because of good public policy got in the way when we look at 8 because it wasn't a nation night or white response really it was very p.c. you said it was piecemeal but in fairness you know it's a large country a large geography so you know it's not like new zealand where you know you're 7000 miles away from everything and you can easily shut everything down so it's very hard to construct a sensible national response which will meet the needs of new york in the same way that it will meet the needs of texas that is both a strength and a weakness of his country as you pointed out but i don't think it i think it does complicate the issue of federalizing there's once you could have common criteria which i think they tried to do but you know look new york had more of more than

half the cases so to suggest idaho should all exactly the same plans new york as it's silly and i think that's reality. ok going to work well when people say the word recovery what does that mean in your mind what kind of recovery do you want to see him again i want to keep my focus on the middle classes and working people what is a recovery for them. well i think the recovery needs to be kind of as i was suggesting in a utopian manner the shutdown was coordinated i would like to think her coverage would be even more coordinated such that there were certain strictures dictated so that when you do reopen you can reopen to the fullest and that is my greatest concern is that across the nation you have consumers and this is a consumer driven economy 70 percent consumption you have some consumers who see

the local news and for example see people who are not wearing masks and say that's fine all throw up my hands and be reticent to return to my old consumption habits until i see that things are such that i am comfortable so you might my greatest hope for the recovery is that the people of individual communities and states and the country come together and say the more we can be much more aggressive at reopening if we approach this as many asian nations that have never shutdown have approached it and that is by making sure that you maximize reopening by maximizing the general comfort level of among all consumers so that we can get this engine started back up as opposed to going back to marshall's analogy ok great we've turned the car back on but we're still driving as if we're in a school zone what we need more than anything else is certainty and we all have to agree on that there has to be consensus as all the time we have i want to thank my

guests in dallas and in new york and i want to take our viewers for watching us iraq you see you next time remember. she stressed to know but mostly to say that the british wasn't at the bowl of bullshit out that you had to. stop the show so you're free dentist to fish it is easy to see which caution. which is you don't know what you. can and must it's a detour come over to me for shit. or to go to the shop with your might your bonus for should be reviewed. for the mr hazlewood support of arguing with them to spirit

or does it seem to be arguable that it's a student actually of course in the personal cost of the phone call or should stop them spilling. throughout its history jihad against with the self-proclaimed islam makes state terrorist groups have recorded up to 30000 foreigners from all over the world to fight them using aggressive internet company gun to contain isis continues to be moving to the caliphate meaning parts of syria and iraq outraged by that your father was african muslims today just like clear frosting and making the problem.