whose advantage it is ok because that is turned into a political football and we may be dealing with something that is the great depression so i think we have to take it very seriously so marshall i mean we in some kind of recovery or is it too early to same or recovery in some sectors and not others kind of you know unpack it for us you know without getting too political the look that the idea is if you if you go if you if you stop a car you know you're going 100 miles an hour then you stop a car there and it goes to 0 and then you break celebrate and it goes 20 miles an hour of course you know the car is moving again and. so course that's progress but you are still far from seeing that automobile move operated at maximum efficiency so leaving aside this testicle ledge and there are there is about what i'm sure we'll get into that yes there's been some recovery but you are

still dealing with some you've still got some profound long term structural issues which i think are far from being resolved your opinion i mean it's one of the things that you know 2 a situation like 2 very sudden because this was this was self-inflicted it the kind of it was turned off it was a it was it a choice ok but as we come into this recovery if you know the word recovery is. the a trying to reveal some of the structural problems that were in the economy in the 1st place and i think that that's something that we need to look at is well because i've long lamented people talking about these really big macro economic numbers that doesn't really always tell you very much about the economy or what how the markets are you know i mean you know you come out with you know these different various job reports 'd and then the markets are soaring and they seem so disconnected because it really doesn't have much to do with the average working family. you know that's exactly right and i think that the reason that the economy

was kind of on a weak footing coming into this year is why we've had the rebound in the stock market that we have and that is that the federal reserve kept interest rates at artificially low levels for so many years that non-financial business debt in this country was allowed to double so it was an accident waiting to happen so to speak and once that accident did happen you know that the blackest of black swans then we saw a much faster underground following in the corporate bond market and what would have been expected and that was just it was just a by product of them being as over levered as they were which prompted the fed to ride to the rescue and do things that it's never done such as get into the high yield bond market and rescue companies that have been downgraded which is set off what we call animal spirits the likes of which we've never seen now we have individual that there's this smallest of retail investors pumping up things like

insolvent companies such as j.c. penney and hertz that have actually declared bankruptcy filed for chapter 11 and yet investors in general are so convinced that because of the fed's extraordinary actions to contain the al fall of the credit market of the credit bubble bursting that the fed no matter what happens is going to have their back with i mean that's like the fed choosing winners i mean is that really helped be through the economy because it again that's kind of an evolution i mean that's a choice it's not really market forces as we're always told to worship here i find that really quite bewildering and what is the doing if you're buying corporate bonds i mean this is this is it's it's not creating an even playing field how do you explain what the current one. what the fed is doing right now is credit allocation but what the end result is is the likes of price distortion the

likes of which we've never seen it is almost impossible whether you're investing in a bond or a stock right now to say what its inherent underlying value is you've got 40 percent for example of the standard and poor's $500.00 it's pulled guidance all earnings guidance for the year so if you're talking about the most traditional valuation metric the price to earnings ratio it's kind of undefined right now is so i mean we're an absolutely extraordinary times and yet we have the markets at all time highs that is what that policy is creating and the irony is that you know corporations have tacked on an additional trillion dollars of debt in very short order and this is just going to make them that much weaker than they were coming into the year if we don't have a true the shaped recovery and i mean full the shaped recovery this is going to leave that sector that much weaker and more to one of the things that's coming to

my mind one thing of the financial reporting is that it's almost is if house the economy isn't necessary anymore or wrap the people in the economy for it to continue to move forward i find that really quite bewildering because again if you look at you know a lot of financial news you know people are upbeat you know and of course you know you know. these major corporations that were bailed out 1st you know but that was their ox i mean it's like someone said to me rather just heard you think they're back in the shower drinking wine the good part of the country doesn't feel that i mean if you have even more beer on the street i think that's right and to your point about the fed so i think the winners or losers i don't even think it's winners and losers i think the fed is it's whether you're politically well connected to the extent of the bailouts really have it's a is a function of how well established craigs is doing. banking relationships where which is why the programs like p.p.p.

have not worked out well because they're a small business that employs say 15 people you're not going to have the same kind of relationships with with j.p. morgan as a large multinational corporation will not that and that's no fault of. the banks percent i mean that's understandable but to your other point i mean i think been a long standing problem we've had a serious deterioration in the open all of you have jobs even as we were coming to full employment and i think that's been a longstanding problem it's been brutally exposed the underlying. about economy for a long period of time and as you point out this post pandemic response has actually exacerbated the problem it's we instead of fixing it we've actually made it worse you know then you know it's you know when people talk about a recovery i think it's more germane to say recovery for home i mean that's really the question we have to ask because i think i know it's easily politicized and i'm

i'm deeply conservative person and i can easily politicize it myself but you know if the if the issue is here that we need to have a recovery it was the right people to be on the on the receiving end. and that's exactly right you know right now the narrative in the media is that everything associated with any of the pain of the corona crisis is temporary in nature there will be no hermant the consequences of what we're seeing right now and yet we know that small businesses as they look to reopen. and for a generation now we've had small businesses focused on an unvaried a low price labor at the expense of capital expenditures now and in a world where so many consumers are going to be going to headings i agree about social distancing now you're going to have an opposite trend of small businesses looking to invest in capital expenditures and automate to

a aster extent and they have kind of like the medium and large sized companies in america have already certainly started that process but you're going to actually have even the small businesses that employ 47 percent of americans prior to the current of the current of our virus outbreak you're going to have an even smaller segment of the population that is brought into and under the small business umbrella and which is a a made huge foundation and source of innovation and entrepreneurship the district distantly ben a job creation engine so i'm truly concerned about what the aftermath of this is going to look like you know martially with the with the jobs report that we got last week when we're inside is the big dig kannan mean what sectors of the economy you think that these jobs came from because again there was a lot of people have occasion about these numbers and i i kind of think that was politically influence but i mean they gave economy small 'd businesses which trying

to small businesses or is it like this amazon just got another 100000 well to your point about the problems with the numbers themselves if part of the difficulty ironically is the that we have these new programs like the government. programs whereby funding was extended to companies who kept on their payroll or sustain their payroll who duration of the crisis so when they they were in this anomalous position of being paid but they weren't doing anything and the. the b.l.s. at the end of its report indicated that these people were counted as employed of though they are the facto unemployed so and if you actually made adjustments haven't you had a 16 percent unemployment rate so so i but look even if we look at 13 percent that's still one of the highest numbers we've had since the great depression bit

the growth came in a lot of instances simply from reopening the economy so that you know even if it's 50 percent you know you're hiring back some steps a work at restaurants again or other services that have been closed down i mean i am in new york and most of the economy still shut down here in new york city but in other places it's comparatively open so so clearly there's an impact map you have to ask yourself whether a lot of these industries like retail leisure restaurants are ever going to recover from the prepared democrat levels at least for several years to come i mean you know restaurants will be operating at 50 percent capacity as an example can be considered are you making any money i mean i know one people were in the restaurant business when they have 200 percent capacity to make their job no that's right that's right i mean if i mean as i said in new york there's a ton of small restaurants and a paper high rents they're not going to be able to make it and and that's not unique or on the company and of course some you know we're doing this on zoom lots

of teleconferencing in telecommuting mean done zoom so that means less or less travel less airplanes boeing was having problems even before this latest crisis they'll probably make it as a sub. contract the pentagon but their civilian business could go straight down the tubes so there is there are some real problems going in regard to hysteresis you know any bailing out an airline somebody that doesn't make good airlines anymore really really really i'm going to we're going to go to a short break let your break you were discussion on the recovery.

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in the world corrupted you need to descend. to join us in the depths. or remain in the shallows. while the magic cross up were all things are considered i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're discussing the state of the economy. and then you'll excuse me go to you let's talk about what the government is doing and not doing you know you can call it a bailout you can call a stimulus package we can talk about the timing of it all. what is going to

stop the free fall was that basically meaningless because they were bailing out people that have more money than god anyway and using that tax code i mean that's that's that's fine when you have high employment you can redistribute wealth only have so many people unemployed they're not paying a role at all and we can talk about the derivative issue of health care if you don't have a job i mean has the government done the right thing for the working people of america i'm not talking about the rich. working people go well you know it's interesting you raise that issue because consumer confidence among the lowest quintile and the 2nd to lowest quintile has recovered at the fastest pace in fact we're seeing consumer confidence among those who make between $7599000.00 a year continue to slump as layoffs begin to move into white collar industries my

greatest concern about giving the lowest income earners and an additional $600.00 a month out to the end of july and we'll see if that is extended or not. is that it's provided a false sense of security to an income cohort that will then be at the end of this stimulus period still facing the same traumatic financial consequences as they faced before and i refer to cop cars being repossessed or rental evictions and in fact you've seen more reticence just in the last few days among potential car buyers and one of their chief concerns is that there is going to be an expiration of the moratorium on rental evictions so the question is have you have you just bought a little bit of time while demand a structured is occurring in the background such that you're not just going to have people and why call a positions but also people at the lowest income runs out of work and will there be

the political wherewithal to address what really needs to be addressed which is figuring out a way to secure jobs as opposed to keeping people on effective universal basic income which has which is really what has been created by congress and has resulted in a disproportionate number of you of u.s. workers being called back to work and saying no i'm collecting a lot more right now than i was before so the incentive system is just all catty wankers to use a very technical term and i worry about what's going to happen on the other side of this because the fate of so many millions of americans rests in congress right now yeah and. those funds that were sent out i would have no match in the great deal of issues to pay off debts to if that's what people are using the money for there because they don't know i mean they worry it you know if there's light at the end of the tunnel it's really good to be another train coming in their direction i

think that's really the analogy here or should what do you think of how the government is responding to this because i must say this from a moralistic point of view you know the kind of wipe their hands they've been on big. ation you know i mean there are tens of millions of the emergencies out there in the country people losing their jobs. you know and i'm a you know as a conservative. i don't you know my 1st reaction is limited government i don't like people becoming dependent on the government i think that anything that the government should do should keep families together in people and work and then that's the derivative but in an emergency in a block's want to bend like this i think that you know if you can't use the argument we don't have any money we have plenty of money for their friends and their special interests here but in the end you brings up this really important issues that you know how much is the people good and creating or creating relief

but without creating dependency because there is that issue people say why should we go back to our i'm getting a check i know we. are short answer to that is that you know come july 1st at least not for now those checks won't be coming anymore which does raise the problem that . brought up and what happens afterwards if there is not a job to go back to look it's it's an unusual situation because you effectively have created it's been the government that has created this mass unemployment in order to deal with a public pandemic. they have put the economy into a deep freeze. and to you we can i don't want to discuss whether that was the right of the wrong thing to do in terms of luck and the fact is you knew it instantaneously created mass unemployment but if you want to sustain political support for those relief efforts then you've got to make sure that you do it properly and i think the europeans have done a better job of that than than we have in the sense that many of them have just

gone straight to a a nationalized payroll and that to me that would've been a more desirable way to go because you're it's less politicized you all you don't have to create a whole bunch of new bureaucracy to do it you you have the the. data within the the . the i.r.s. for exactly it's easy it's easy enough to to get those checks to those people from existing base but if you think payroll and it would have taken out a lot of the government discretion of a lot of the political problems that you that you've raised so denmark norway did that even the conservative government of johnson says the tories covered about 80 percent of salaries up to $30000.00 pounds so that to me would have been a much better way to go of course as the economy recovers you do want to wean people off point is that if you're the one responsible for throwing people out of work and i think there is a moral obligation to make sure. they are compensated for that and likewise in

regard business as i say you don't want to create a profit windfall but there is a a constitutional clause in the us constitution that the takings provision which assumes that which mandates that you compensate. for any of the sustain which as a result of government action now i don't think you can get them when all profits but at the same time. they should be compensated for their fixed costs they've been they would have otherwise incurred i think that would have been a fair way to sustain support a message and being consistent a constitutional provide provisions that we have here and only only if i agree with it that would be the moral thing to do these are common sense thing to do at the same time i mean if you you know you truly economy on which i don't think in the history of ever this is ever been tried. ok and we all sort of ok. when you have the last right the most 929 when you you wonder

what was happening i mean if you were money a market maker you want everything is coming to heart this is something that we didn't understand and we all kind of walked through to the. are what you wrote what's going on here it seems to me that not only was it would have been the morals the decision but if you wanted just to switch back to her you would have some better chance of the moving parts you more or less the same as they were but now we're in a very different environment. we are and i won't take credit for this idea it was actually it was actually articulated 1st by mark cuban who said you know the i.r.s. has access to all of these bank accounts of all these small businesses why don't you just give them overdraft protection until the and entire national economy is ready to reopen and rather than this patchwork that we've seen where arizona opens quickly and now it's hospitals are becoming overwhelmed and texas is open very quickly and now we've got we've got record levels of coronavirus cases so you've

got this this this piecemeal approach to reopening because there is this need to get that you know through the business doors open so that we can get back to work i get that but had you had a much more who ward 8 it blanket national approach i think that there would have been a lot more calm among the small business owners of the country and more of that kind of a for lack of a word to geniality if you will nationwide as opposed to what we've ended up with which is a ton of divisiveness that we all know serves absolutely no purpose. marshaling and you know i always explain to the non americans about the virtues and then the downside of having the kind of country the united states has because we have states ok and i constantly telling my friends that governors can say no to the president i mean. they were elected in their state that's what the response to do and you know

it's very very confusing but you know this is one of those downsides here and we all pretty much kept our promise not to politicize this but it was because of oh it's i don't think it was because of good public policy got in the way when we look at 8 because it wasn't a nation night or white response really it was very peaceful you said it was piecemeal but in fairness you know it's a large country a large geography so you know it's not like new zealand where you know you're 7000 miles away from everything and you can easily shut everything down so it's very hard to construct a sensible national response which will meet the needs of new york in the same way that it will meet the needs of texas that is both a strength and a weakness a host country as you pointed out but i don't think it i think it does complicate the issue of federalizing their spots you could have common criteria which i think they tried to do but you know look new york had more of more than half

the cases so to suggest idaho should all exactly the same plan new york as it's silly and i think that's reality. ok going to work well when people say the word recovery what does that mean in your mind what kind of recovery do you want to see him again i want to keep my focus on the middle classes and working people what is a recovery for them well i think the recovery needs to be kind of as i was suggesting in a utopian manner the shutdown was coordinated i would like to think every would be even more coordinated such that there were certain structures dictate it so that when you do reopen you can reopen to the fullest and that is my greatest concern is that across the nation you have consumers and this is a consumer driven economy 70 percent consumption you have some consumers who see

the local news and for example see people who are not wearing masks and say that's fine all throw up my hands and be reticent to return to my old consumption habits until i see that things are such that i am comfortable so you might my greatest hope for the recovery is that the people of individual communities and states and the country come together and say the more we can be much more aggressive at reopening if we approach this as many asian nations that have never shut down have approached it and that is by making sure that you maximize reopening by maximizing the general comfort level of among all consumers so that we can get this engine started back up as opposed to going back to marshall's analogy ok great we've turned the car back on but we're still driving as if we're in a school zone but we need more than anything else is certainty and we all have to agree on that there has to be consensus as all the time we have i want to thank my

guests in dallas and in new york and i want to take our viewers for watching us iraq you see you next time remember. financial survival guide stacey ballfield let's say i'm not so i guess. the fight. thank you for. the story 6 that's right if you looked at slavery. sashay stressed to. this or that the but nash wasn't at the ball of bullshit out that he had to. stop the show so i hope

she didn't taste it taste fishy say so i pushed what i shall. do which book i thought at which she doesn't have time and i know what you mean and i must get your car moment for sure i. want to go to the show through my it's your bonus for trivia. it's a mistake of the word support until put into the spirit of this interview for you both these to teach the student actually the person to be vocal or should. just let them spin. expressed. by the demick no certainly no board is just blind to nationalities. has emerged little time with the we do

a back seat the whole world needs to be. people. judging. 2 coming every crisis what is this time to time so we can do better we should be. everyone is contributing each of our own way but we also know that this crisis will not go on forever challenges grateful to response has been must so many good people are helping us. it makes us feel very proud that we are in it together. the world is driven by a dream shaped by one person. who

dares thinks. we dare to ask. french president among the montreal heads to play roots for the 2nd time i've been under a month to press for political reform and a criticism france is acting again like a colonial power. presidents on italy's lampedusa protests the evolving of hundreds of new migrants with the local saying that they are simply can't cope anymore. and charles a new set of tech export restrictions that could further challenge the sale of top business in the us i mean growing tensions.