you know i mean you know you come out with you know we have these different various jobs reports and then the markets are soaring and they seem so disconnected because it really doesn't have much to do with the average working family. you know that's exactly right and i think that the reason that the economy was kind of on a weak footing coming into this year is why we've had the rebound in the stock market that we have and that is that the federal reserve kept interest rates at artificially low levels for so many years that non-financial business debt in this country was allowed to double so it was an accident waiting to happen so to speak and once that accident did happen you know that the blackest of black swans then we saw a much faster underground following in the corporate bond market and what would have been expected and that was just it was just a by product of them being as over levered as they were which prompted the fed to

ride to the rescue and do things that it's never done such as get into the high yield bond market and rescue companies that have been downgraded which is set off what we call animal spirits the likes of which we've never seen now we have individual that does this smallest of retail investors pumping up things like insolvent companies such as j.c. penney and hertz that have actually declared bankruptcy filed for chapter 11 and yet investors in general are so convinced that because of the fed's extraordinary actions to contain the al fall of the credit market of the credit bubble bursting that the fed no matter what happens is going to have their back with i mean that's like the fed choosing winners i mean is that really healthy for the economy because it again that's kind of an evolution i mean that's a choice it's not really market forces as we're always told to worship here i find . really quite bewildering and what is the doing if you're buying corporate bonds i

mean this is this is it's not creating an even playing field how do you explain what the current what what the fed is doing right now is credit allocation but what the end result is is the likes of price distortion the likes of which we've never seen it is almost impossible whether you're investing in a bond or a stock right now to say what its inherent underlying value is you've got 40 percent for example of the standard and poor's $500.00 it's pulled guidance all earnings guidance for the year so if you're talking about the most traditional valuation metric the price to earnings ratio it's kind of undefined right now is so i mean we're an absolutely extraordinary times and yet we have the markets at all time highs that is what that policy is creating and the irony is that you know corporations have tacked on an additional trillion dollars of debt in very

short order and this is just going to make them that much weaker than they were coming into the year if we don't have a true the shaped recovery and i mean full the shaped recovery this is going to leave that sector that much weaker and more to one of the things that's coming to my mind one thing of the financial reporting is that it's almost is if house the economy isn't necessary anymore or wrap the people in the economy to continue to move forward i find that really quite bewildering because again if you look at you know a lot of financial news you know people are upbeat you know and of course you know you know. these major corporations that were bailed out 1st you know but that's how it's their ox i mean it's like someone said to me rather just heard you going there are back in the shower drinking wine the good part of the country doesn't feel that i mean if you have even more beer on the street i think that's right and to your point about the fed so i think we'll. it's

a lose i don't even think it's winners and losers i think the fed is it's whether you're politically well connected to the extent of the bailouts really it's a function of how well established craig system banking relationships were which is why programs like p.p.p. have not worked out well because for small businesses that employ say 15 people you're not going to have the same kind of relationships with with j.p. morgan as a large multinational corporation will not that and that's no fault of. the banks per se i mean that's understandable but to your other point i mean i think been a long standing problem we've had a serious deterioration in the open all of you have jobs even as we were coming to full employment and i think that's been a longstanding problem it's been brutally exposed the underlying. about economy for a long period of time and as you point out this post pandemic response has actually exacerbated the problem it's we instead of fixing it we've actually made it worse

you know then you know it's in when people talk about a recovery i think it's more germane to say recovery for home i mean that's really the question we have to ask because i think i know it's usually politicized i'm not i'm i'm deeply conservative person and i can easily politicize it myself but you know the the issue is here is that we need to have a recovery but it was the right people to be on the on the receiving end. and that's exactly right you know right now the narrative in the media is that everything associated with any of the pain of the corona crisis is temporary in nature there will be no hermant the consequences of what we're seeing right now and yet we know that small businesses as they look to reopen. and it's the 1st generation now we've had small businesses focused on an unvaried a low price labor at the expense of capital expenditures now and in

a world where so many consumers are going to be going to have anxiety about social distancing now you're going to have an opposite trend of small businesses looking to invest in capital expenditures and automate to a aster extent and they have kind of like the medium and large sized companies in america have already certainly started that process but you're going to actually have even the small businesses that employ 47 percent of americans prior to the current of the current of our virus outbreak you're going to have an even smaller segment of the population that is brought into and under the small business umbrella and which is a a made huge foundation and source of innovation and entrepreneurship that is traditionally been a job creation engine so i'm truly concerned about what the aftermath of this is going to look like you know martially with the with the jobs report that we got

last week when we're inside isn't the conning me what sectors of the economy you think that these jobs came from because again there was a lot of people have occasion about these numbers and i kind of think that was politically influence but i mean they gave economy small 'd businesses which trying to small businesses or is it like this amazon just got another 100000 well to your point about the problems with the numbers themselves. part of the difficulty ironically it's the that we have these new programs like the government. programs whereby funding was extended to companies who kept on their payroll or sustain their payroll who duration of the crisis so when they they were in this anomalous position of being paid but they weren't doing anything and the. b.l.s. at the end of it this report indicated that these people were counted as employed

of though they are the facto unemployed so and if you actually made adjustments haven't you had a 16 percent unemployment rate so so i but look even if we look at 13 percent that's still one of the highest numbers we've had since the great depression bit the growth came in a lot of instances simply from reopening the economy so that you know even if it's 50 percent you know you're hiring back some steps they work at restaurants again or other services that have been closed down i mean i am in new york and most of the economy still shut down here in new york city but in other places it's comparatively open so so clearly there's an impact map you have to ask yourself whether a lot of these industries like retail leisure restaurants are ever going to recover from the prepared democrat levels at least for several years to come i mean you're restaurants will be operating at 50 percent capacity as an example could be considered are you making any money i mean i know $1.00 people work in the

restaurant business when they have 200 percent capacity to make their job no that's right that's right i mean if i mean as i say in new york there's a ton of small restaurants newspaper high rents they're not going to be able to make it and and that's not unique or on the country then of course some you know we're doing this on zoom lots of teleconferencing in telecommuting mean done zoom so that means less or less travel less airplanes boeing was having problems even before this latest crisis so probably make it as a sub. contract the pentagon but their civilian business could go straight down the tubes so there is there are some real problems going in regard to hysteresis you know any bailing out an airline somebody that doesn't make good airlines anymore really really really i'm going to we're going to go to a short break let your break you were discussion on the recovery.

the. arab. she stressed to. this or that the british and the bill of voted out that you have to. stop the show was to you she didn't taste the taste fisheries have a cia bush quote all shall. go to which she never happened and i know what you mean and i must get your corona man for sure. want to talk to you sort of through my if you promise for to be. good to mr siward supporters are still with spirit over 4 years they seem to be arguable that it's a studio actually the person to revoke or should. just go and spin it.

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wives and children with them. yes and the idea isn't lost on you you see me as and you could no. more knew the. hundreds of children and widows were held captive all disappeared. back in russia those children families wait time search for. joining me every thursday on the alex salmond show and i'll be speaking to get a feel of the world of politics or business i'm show business i'll see of.

well the magic were all things are considered i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're discussing the state of the economy. again you let's let me go to let's talk about what the government is doing and not doing you know you can call it a bailout you can call a stimulus package we can talk about the timing of it all 1. what is going to stop the freefall was it basically meaningless because they were bailing out people that have more money than god anyway and using that tax code i mean that's that's what that's fine when you have high unemployment you can redistribute wealth away only have so many people unemployed they're not paying payroll at all and we can talk about the derivative issue of health care if you don't have

a job because the government done the right thing for the working people of america i'm not talking about the rich working people go well you know it's interesting you raise that issue because consumer confidence among the lowest quintile and the 2nd to lowest quintile has recovered at the fastest pace in fact we're seeing consumer confidence among those who make between 75099000 a year continue to slump as layoffs begin to move into white collar industries my greatest concern about giving the lowest income earners and an additional $600.00 a month out to the end of july and what will see if that is extended or not. is that it's provided a false sense of security to an income cohort that will then be at the end of this stimulus period still facing the same traumatic financial consequences as they

faced before and i refer to cop cars being repossessed or rental in the actions and in fact you've seen more reticence just in the last few days among potential car buyers and one of their chief concerns is that there's going to be an expiration of the moratorium on rental evictions so the question is have you have you just bought a little bit of time while demand a structured is occurring in the background such that you're not just going to have people and why call a positions but also people at the lowest income runs out of work and will there be the political wherewithal to address what really needs to be addressed which is figuring out a way to secure jobs as opposed to keeping people on effective universal basic income which has which is really what has been created by congress and has resulted in a disproportionate number of you of u.s. workers being called back to work and saying no i'm collecting

a lot more right now than i was before so the incentive system is just all catty wankers to use a very technical term and i worry about what's going to happen on the other side of this because the fate of so many millions of americans rests in congress right now yeah and. those funds that were sent out i would have no match in the great deal of it is used to pay off debt too if that's what people are using the money for it because they don't know i mean they worry it you know if there's light at the end of the tunnel it's really good to be another train coming in their direction i think that's really the analogy here or should what do you think of how the government is responding to this because i must say this from a moralist a point of view you know they kind of wipe their hands they've been on big. ation you know i mean there are tens of millions of the emergencies out there in the country people losing their jobs. you know and i'm you know as a conservative. i don't you know my 1st reaction is limited government i don't like

people becoming dependent on the government i think that anything that the government should do should keep families together and people and work and then that's the positive derivative but in an emergency in a block's want to bend like this i think that you know if you can't use the argument we don't have any money we have plenty of money for their friends and their special interests here but in the end you brings up this really important issues that you know how much is the people good and creating or creating relief but without creating dependency because there is that issue people say why should we go back to that i'm getting a check ok i know we. are short answer to that is that you know come july 1st for now those checks won't be coming anymore which does raise the problem that danielle brought up and what happens afterwards if there is not a job to go back to look it's it's an unusual situation because you

effectively have created it's been the government that has created this mass unemployment in order to deal with a public pandemic. they have put the economy into a deep freeze. and to you we can i don't want to discuss whether that was the right of the wrong thing to do in terms of locked in but the fact is you knew it instantaneously created mass unemployment but if you want to sustain political support for those relief efforts then you've got to make sure that you do it properly and i think the europeans have done a better job of that than than we have in the sense that many of them have just gone straight to a a nationalized payroll and that to me that would've been a more desirable way to go because you're it's less politicized you all you don't have to create a whole bunch of new bureaucracy to do it you have the the. data within the the. the i.r.s. for exactly it's easy it's easy enough to to get those checks to those people from existing base but if you think payroll and it would have taken out a lot of the government discretion and a lot of the political problems that you that you've raised so denmark norway did

that even the conservative government of johnson says the tories covered about 80 percent of salaries up to think $30000.00 pounds so that to me would have been a much better way to go of course as the economy recovers you do want to wean people off point is that if you're the one responsible for throwing people out of course then i think there is a moral obligation to make sure that they they are compensated for that and likewise in regard businesses i say you don't want to create a profit windfall but there is a a constitutional clause in the us constitution that the takings provision which assumes that which mandates that you compensate. for any of the sustain which as a result of government action now i don't think you can keep them when all profits but at the same time. they should be compensated for their fixed costs they've been

they would have otherwise incurred i think that would have been a fair way to sustain support a message and being consistent a constitutional provide provisions that we have here and only only if i agree with it that would be the moral thing to do these are common sense thing to do at the same time i mean if you you know you truly economy on which i don't think in the history of ever this is ever been tried. ok and we owe a certain ok. when you have the last right the most 929 when you you wonder what was happening i mean if you were money a market maker you want everything is coming to heart this is something that we get noticed and we all kind of walk through it. are what you wrote what's going on here it seems to me that not only was it would have been the morals this decision but if you wanted to switch back to her you would have time to better chance of the moving parts you more or less the same as they were but now we're in

a very different environment. we are and i won't take credit for this idea it was actually it was actually articulated 1st by mark cuban who said you know the i.r.s. has access to all of these bank accounts of all these small businesses why don't you just give them overdraft protection until the end entire national economy is ready to reopen and rather than this patchwork that we've seen where arizona opens quickly and now it's hospitals are becoming overwhelmed and texas is open very quickly and now we've got we've got record levels of coronavirus cases so you've got this this this piecemeal approach to reopening because there is this need to get that you know through the business doors open so that we can get back to work i get that but had you had a much more who ward 8 it blanket national approach i think that there would have been a lot more calm among the small business owners of the country and more of that kind

of a for lack of better word congeniality if you will nationwide as opposed to what we've ended up with which is a ton of divisiveness that we all know serves absolutely no purpose. marshaling then you know i always explain to the north americans about the virtues and then the downside of having the kind of country the united states has because we have states ok and i constantly telling my friends that governors can say no to the president i mean. they were elected in their state that's what the response to do and you know it's very very confusing but you know this is one of those downsides here and we all pretty much kept our promise not to politicize this but it was because of oh it's i don't think it was because of good public policy got in the way when we look at 8 because it wasn't a nation night or white response really it was very peaceful you said it was piecemeal but in fairness you know it's a large country a large geography so you know it's not like new zealand where you know you're 7000

miles away from everything and you can easily shut everything down so it's very hard to construct a sensible national response which will meet the needs of new york in the same way that it will meet the needs of texas that is both a strength and a weakness a host country as you pointed out but i don't think it i think it does complicate the issue of federalism there's once you can have common criteria which i think they tried to do but you know look new york had more or more than half the cases so to suggest idaho should all exactly the same plans new york as it's silly and i think that's reality. ok going to work well when people say the word recovery what does that mean in your mind what kind of recovery do you want to see him again i want to keep my focus on the middle classes and working people what is a recovery for them well i think the recovery needs to be kind of as i was

suggesting in a utopian manner the shutdown was coordinated i would like to think every would be even more coordinated such that there were certain strictures dictated so that when you do reopen you can reopen to the fullest and that is my greatest concern is that across the nation you have consumers and this is a consumer driven economy 70 percent consumption you have some consumers who see the local news and for example see people who are not wearing masks and say that's fine all throw up my hands and be reticent to return to my old consumption habits until i see that things are such that i am comfortable so you might my greatest hope for the recovery is that the people of individual communities and states and

the country come together and say the more we can be much more aggressive at reopening if we approach this as many asian nations that have never shutdown have approached it and that is by making sure that you maximize reopening by maximizing the general comfort level of among all consumers so that we can get this engine started back up as opposed to going back to marshall's analogy ok great we've turned the car back on but we're still driving as if we're in a school zone what we need more than anything else is certainty and we all have to agree on that there has to be consensus as all the time we have i want to thank my guests in dallas and in new york and i want to take our viewers for watching us iraq you see you next time remember. join me every thursday on the alec simon show and i'll be speaking to guest of the world of politics sports that's less i'm show business i'll see of that.

throughout its history john just with the self-proclaimed islamic state terrorist group of recruiting up 230000 following us from all over the world to find. out. if you're in. sounds of russian citizens left their country to join the terrorists often bringing wives and children with them. but he's not going to be done and ideas imposed on you that you see me as and you could move. all in you to the moon hundreds of children and widows were held captive all disappeared.

back in russia those children families wait time search for them. is you'll be d. a reflection of reality. in a world transformed. what will make you feel safe. isolation community. are you going the right way or are you being led so. what is true what's his face. in a world corrupted you need to descend. to join us in the depths. for a mate in the shallowness. she

stressed to. this or that the bush and the bill a bunch of idiots will just to. stop the show so your street dentist a place to she's a cia bush question. which she never happened i know what you mean in the investments you check around in there for sure. let's go to the source of your my it's your bonus for c.b.s. . it's a mistake so it's a quarter i'm still with them to the spirit of this interview but you believe that that it's a stupid actually that most of the personal cost of a phone call or should stop them spinning. expressed sure.

this is a disaster for the migrants who aren't leaving because they're left alone 2 nights monthly dues assess enough presidents on the italian island of lampedusa protest over the arrival of hundreds of migrants with the local mayor saying to the region and no longer. europe has done nothing for them to do so on the problem of migrants no one listens and there is a deafening silence from the european and italian the institutions. china unveils new export restrictions that could prevent the sale of tick tocks a business in the u.s. we look at how spying allegations have sparked a bidding war for the popular around. and russia gate the saga drags on.