thank god. welcome to the alex salmond show and today an examination of the economics of recovery from the corporate crisis the world is in recession but the impact globally from beach intervention has been very different the u.k. setting for the 10 percent decline in g.d.p. while the world average is perhaps 5 percent meanwhile in asia where the pandemic began the g.d.p. for will be less than one percent with g.d.p. leads unemployment will surely follow and today show we asked professor danny by far a former member of the bank of england monetary policy committee whether the o.e.c.d. economies are doing enough to avoid the crew and a virus to say running into a corporate depression i ask this leading international economist what impact the

presidential election will have on the economic outlook but 1st to alex with your tweets messages and e-mails. last week sure the democrat campaign in america and president trump and the no to hospital provoked a lot of interest under an awful says really enjoyed both interviews fascinating and informative looks like biden still has a mountain to claim to win but agree that kemal hotness is see this late impressive and not be says in general i enjoy your show and thoughts and i did not enjoy the show as surprising how you and your guests will show one sided against trump well i j in our defense be that we had a sure a month or 2 back on the republicans with the public and commentators last week show was about the democrat campaign so obviously they were less favorable to president trump than the than the republican commentators were and there's a bill says lot of coming because it was

a debate about tom green in the hospital he should've saved money and stayed home since his symptoms were mild he is the president after all and can do as he pleases so why go to hospital and following up on this point and says he either never had it and staged this or he has and does not care as long as and she says the president comes attitude as i am all right i'm the best all right i have ever been an aide says that steadily it's make you feel brand new but money coming home comes to present comes defense she says i know 3 people who tested positive for cold it and to an asymptomatic and out of my part that the call for 2 days i've not had trouble fun but accusing him of faking it with evidence is very odd to me john says trump says all american should receive the same treatment he hunt that's going to take a phenomenal amount of movie producers production crew and helicopters thomas says if you're not going to give this drug cocktail free to the american people lisa

says i'm curious become the president of america be used as a guinea pig for untested medical research if anyone knows please could you let me know and mike's. known defender of the president he says talk became president brought records in the short time he created millions of jobs and unemployment a record low as he just taxes and wages increased trump as one of the greats yet the super rich feedom so they want to paint a bad picture why else would he be out for 3 piece of warts norma says i was watching c.n.n. and a commentator said trump would come to scotland when he loses i was screaming at the television we don't want him either j.c. says you don't speak for everyone some of us support him actually but bob says the world these to distance herself from america before the pull other countries down the toilet with them this is why there are so many people in america whose heads are spinning just now and then back to his meeting in april we asked professor

david blanchflower for his assessment on the measures required to stave off obama to station this is what he had to save back in 2008 the world was unprepared for a financial crisis in 2020 they were unprepared for basically a health crisis and so now we're playing catch up and all the responses that we've seen which i said were exemplary but i'm not going to be enough they're probably going to do the same thing next month and the month afterwards and so what that means that we're seeing are unthinkable is that over this decade or throw the world policymakers have been utterly unprepared today he joins alex to assess the impact to date on the united states and world economies and get his views on economic consequences of president trump and challenger joe biden and professor david blanchflower joins me from florida welcome back to the show danny. good to speak to you again of course now what about the economic policy the sponsor in america when

i last spoke to you in the show you were pretty complimentary about the the big guns being trained on the the impact of the pandemic i still satisfied that the immediate policy the sponsons been up to the task well it was really very good from around the law a law down huge response sent through by congress all together and then as often is the way with these things the initial enthusiasm died away and the unemployment benefits that congress was paying out stopped at the end of july and basically the economy has now started to slow because the stimulus has been pulled back and the economy is slowing and i think it's actually impacting the polls and it's impacting republicans and it's impacting donald trump's position in

the polls so the answer is bad there and in the u.k. context we so good good good response oh now we seem a chance a little ailing around of the day we starting to see unemployment rates coming out and i suspect yet we're going to see of the same thing in the u.k. so initially good and now they've got cold feet and we're seeing slowing as the kind of expressing it now you will one of the most trenchant critics of the economics of a stand at the end of the great recession of $2910.00 but it's a different perspective a bigger opportunity now because the cost of borrowing rates are so low or nonexistent what exactly is the constraint the fiscal constraint that so many governments seem to be if $100.00 cuffing themselves putting themselves in manacles as opposed to taking the opportunity of these incredibly low balling rates to to get the job. don what we've seen in the united states is

a tax giveaway which raise the deficit and raise the debt by 2 truly so i think it's hard to argue that you care that much in these times about the debt so i agree with you that borrowing is a is completely sensible thing to do perhaps what we should focus on is not so much how much should you borrow the question is what should he spend it all and i remember telling you when you were 1st minister only when you thought a lot about well can we do about shovel ready projects can we actually start thinking and investing things and it was about building off those build schools build roads build sensible things to get the economy going and quickly so the answer is you can borrow cheaply go do it it's an economic policy terms what difference would a president biden make going to pay up to president tom's absolutely i think you're going to see a series of things i mean the 1st thing you're going to see on the international things this that and on day one will rejoin the paris the paris climate

a cocoon he says you'll see a bigger push in terms of helping people in clean energy and all of that kind of stuff but i think what you're going to see is a steady way forward investment in jobs try specially to protect the affordable care act and i don't think you're going to see anything huge carly because biden has reassured the markets and has actually said that when the big economic call is that alex is that they're going to reverse those tax increases and they're basically going the promise they will do nothing to the vast majority of people who earn under $400000.00 a year and i think the reason in a sense is that those tax cuts really have show it's hard to see any major economic benefits you just change income inequality and wealth inequality you just move money to the rich so i think that's the big thing going to see but i think increasingly there is not going to be a giant change because they reassure the rockets and. basically they can and move

to job creation especially in in climate change areas. the lesson of economic crisis is the end does provoke new economic thinking when came to theirs and was at a large extent new economic thinking caused by the great depression by often takes a bit of a time for it to it to become a translated into economic policy often doxie seems to have a strangle hold and we saw that again in 2910 what are your hopes this time around with a serious economic crisis following the hand demick that new economic thinking will be translated into new economic policy where there's a really great question but if you had you have to look forward and think well what did we learn from the pandemic in america the crucial distinction is the republicans are going to the supreme court a week after the election with 20 attorneys generals to tear down the affordable care act and the question is 75 percent of the people support it or what are you

going to do you're going to remove that place with nothing so i think going forward these kinds of battles about care health insurance how you deal with the low end of the crucial thing and i think the other question is going to be what the heck you're going to do about it you know in the skull in this a big issue in this initiative and in america it's a giant issue what would be unit vase the governments around the what old in order to get new economic thinking translated into policy action well i feel this 2 parts and i'm a student history is you i mean the 1st thing is that when the boat sinking in the people are in the war so priority is to save them save the economy and build it and then start a plan for the future and i michael and i thought a lot about this in fact in 1943 i'm in the midst of the 2nd world war with in church ill got to got an economist william beverage to actually write about i mean you know this write about what are we going to do. when the troops cumple what are

we going to do when the women who worked in the factories what are we going to do about them when they come home and this great worry did talked about establishing a welfare state thinking about how we run an economy so that peace or decent jokes of people so it's that kind of thinking strategic long term thinking i mean it's a bit like what are you going to do when the troops come and the answer is you can have to start to build a society for everybody you're going to have to start to deal with the left because it's about science good jokes for people so i'm going to get you to take a crystal ball and you have you know takes me to way for a 2nd that i want to push on whether you think the policy response until nationally is going to be like the new economic order which followed the the cataclysm of the 2nd one war or is it going to be the the underachievement and the performance that followed the great recession of $2910.00 i'm going to get a new way an economic summit going to be stuck in the ruts in the past oh my

heart's hollow books my heart hopes that it will be kind and gentle and positive but my head tells me that it will be much like we saw in the great recession where george osborne comes ian impose austerity and says we're all in this together which is precisely that was not true that was precisely not true and so the question is once with through this kind of damage and we through this phase will it be back to the old will. and i don't know i mean i do think alex that perhaps what's different this time is that this pandemic will change people's of behavior in the long run the great recession didn't it didn't it was back to normal pretty quickly but i think this thing what old people are doing i mean them in america the big thing with trump in 2016 was the old people with it today they're not he says go out come to a rally go to the store and their doctors are telling them not to so the question is is this the. is there a long run change in behavior and if there is then the scope i think it will see

fundamental change and that when you're holding you know you'll soon tutorials at the present moment with a student of college and what as the question that they are asking you about contemporary economic policy what was the thing they're saying fess up blanchflower kenya can you tell us why this is happening or not happening well that's a great question i think i think the big question that they're asking right now is what the heck is going all i mean how is this about anything given new ways of working out what's going on but especially what's coming i mean what the heck is coming i think that's what we're trying to work on and that's hard but this is exciting times and hopefully hopefully this will actually prove to be positive but it's hard to see that in the darkness of a storm professor david blanchflower thank you again for joining me on the alec salmon to thank you. join us after the break we were talking the economic focus

from their medical election to the next election shuttled in the u.k. for the scottish parliament and the national assembly of wales join us a. dark industry comes to life in los angeles every night. dozens of women sell their bodies on the street many of them under-age. los angeles police reveal a taste of their daily challenge you know if you're going to exploit a child here in los angeles they were going to come out of your busy offices going undercover as sex workers and customers to fight the l.a. sex trade.

welcome back the next election shadowed in the u.k. i don't scotland and wales next year the polls will be dominated by covered $1000.00 and its consequences the economic circumstances i like that to be dire but it is new thinking coming forward to meet the scale of the challenge alex is in conversation with former cabinet minister alex neil m.s.p. i love 7 in the help i did a tour of the scottish think tank coming up we'll. welcome to the sure our could rob a place like. a former cabinet minister be it in the the back benches know in the in the scots bond that you've recently published an economic plan for the coverly there were clearly great health or may have been soup which is going to be

accompanied by a huge economic emergency plan consists of and what's the chances of it being brought forward into action. well the 1st subject of alec is the major real survive through the pine dairy where the center vigils are businesses so the number one priority is emergency funding for businesses and for individuals to make sure people don't end up and die a day as a result of the pandemic secondly they ended up plan to deal with the tsunami of unemployment that is very clearly coming through in scotland and indeed the rest in a decaying to wales and northern ireland as well as england and i think needs a number of things to happen number one we need to keep the social security improvements to make sure the spending goes in the economy at a local level secondly we need an investment program in infrastructure and thirdly we need a massive investment program also and business business investment ali and the

business infrastructure for the longer tim and i think if we do all of these things together. then we have a good chance of minimizing the impact in terms of unemployment but also surviving the pandemic so we've got an economy to go back to once upon then extol the robert capa in committing the think tank common weale which press publishes an oppressive range of policy is also subject to crises such as this actually provoke new thinking and tabs of economic and other policies well not street week one of the things i think we're seeing at the moment as everybody fights the last war as we fight the last war we're facing this is a normal crisis a normal economic problem and we try out for a while and then we discover it's not working and that scrape we start to move into a new economics and really feel i'm hoping is that we can move that process along as fast as we can not just in scotland globally we have to understand tools that we

used china deal with the truth in the name and financial crisis didn't really work then certainly not belong to them and we're basically trying to. she used them again just now and it wouldn't be i fear and told me to realize that's not watching until someone says but hold on a 2nd what we can actually try what's going to actually work we will come out of this being with a very different economics than the ones that we were using when we went into it but the question is whether we are forced into a change or whether we recognize that change is coming out we recognize it sooner rather than later so rob a copy when you say you fight the last wall in economic terms of you saying the long period of a status which followed the great recession of 2000 and night we had danger of another 10 years of a stab at the following the the great pandemic of 2020 this is not true 1009 this is much more like the brutally structuring their economies went through

and the 1980 certainly in britain so it's more fundamental than just we're going to have a steady it's going to be either in private industry sectors which we have assumed will always be weapons in the form in which they are what and they're not going to be like that in the future and again the question is do we realise this change is coming and she or do we pretend this change isn't coming i mean funny when i write . if i should put your finger on one aspect of the recovery program that you forward which can both be on the beach it at least palliative to the economic problems on bring about long term restructuring what would it be in your program there's a lot of mythology around the national date of the deficit so what to bill seemed of the 2 julian day and national day is actually owned by the bank of england i.e. by the government so the government can actually border

a lot more to jumpstart the economy is serious to just survive will mean doing the capacity and at the end of the day is not being indian just not money. never a mystery be that money has to be at sale and there's no chance of it causing inflation so there's more of motoring capacity and thames of printing money by the bank of england through various techniques and rob mccallum a common weale. fred much of the material is fascinating stuff but now is the thing time what chances of a few got of getting some of your ideas taken forward as policy i mean after all government understandably to some extent is totally a mess than the health crisis at the present moment very difficult to pick up some of the the blue sky thinking from common will support the chances of parts of your ideas coming forward as a program or i would really like to see happen as the concept of getting new

dealing that could choose one radical thing to get going west it's to see we don't really done a piece of work on how you read them you have to be need you for school and it's actually the 1st and comprehensive cost of getting new deal anything in the world and $1.00 of the big problems is that it takes a while to get going so it gets to be 40 years of lead time before you can actually really do mean a thing which the fuel parliament we do this problem whereby the biggest barrier to it can you kill which people have got to understand is really just i think it cheating project and it was a lack of and people there was just wasn't enough people trained in the can a skill sets that we needed so well i'd really late the precious we've got this human capacity we've got this china global environmental need to do something you can do all of this and we switch highly enterprising create jobs and really really start to move forward both in terms of the industrialized nation but also in terms

of actually getting people into good wimpy jobs well we grasp this and see patient with some vision we're going to go and do this there's no sign of that happening just. and. really is something that we're going to look back on in see my god why didn't we do something 6 months ago or finally guys the elections next year and skull than they did in wales will they actually help some of this new thinking to come forward for the concentrate the minds of the election approaches on the various path is or will move the only show in tone really be over than the pandemic and squeeze out the the thinking for the future what do you think you have been for a few elections yourself absolutely i think there's going to be 3 issues all of which are complementary show that one is we are well out with a pandemic secondly how do you read deal with the huge backlog huge backlog in the national health service that will be there by the end on the other one preaches of equal importance the other is how do we deal with the unemployment

level and there's a tsunami will have fitters by a day in a nice for these things are all important because we've got to operate on all 3 fronts simultaneously and what i would do is i would run a training in employment guarantee scheme for small and medium sized businesses to get people into work and into cheating immediately and they would give a very heavy or longer term subsidy on wheaties and training course over the next 2 or 3 years so that you build that bridge between coming out of the pandemic and getting back into normal times and if you don't build the bridge the problem's going to go last before it can get back into so those are going to be the 3 priorities and i think the elation both and the whales under the scotland is going to be determined largely by how people and the parties respond to the pandemic the any chased by global the economy and in particular unemployment and business

failure so often the cow fire in the common weal think tank and independence a still the big fault line and scottish politics for. let's just say for example that this got us conservatives gay opponents of independents will suddenly to say see that common weale we like one of the policies will adopt a program would would commonwealth camilla would that be something you would have brace ode to say. the way of conservatives banning gifts we'll absolutely work with anybody but i think you're right that the sleep problem we've go as that everything in scotland at the moment is still stuck with us and the paintings are not the fight because of this scale of this crisis because everyone realizes that some sort of bad guy actually is necessary and there's clear evidence in a number of political parties even the scottish labor party is doing b r m poesy thinking nathan has been doing for ages there's lots happening in the greens they seem p's membership is talking about these issues all over the place

just and that's what i'm kind of hoping for is that i don't expect the political leadership to lead us and to write the play be used during this campaign but i think i actually think there's a large public appetite and a many strong unchaste at the grassroots of the previous political parties to see come on it's time we did something different here some being in the wild some we are is going to be the country that gets it speaking about it to get some cuttings and get some breviary realizes the scale of what we're going to do and is going to try something and that country whatever that country ends and years to come we're going to talk about that country model the something mortal it was the country that didn't both let the country that the country didn't crawl into its cupboards and sam just see laced through everyone else's doing and someone's going to get that right and history's going to remember that countries the country the late others towards that age i passionately why should the scotland i have some you know of

course that it could possibly be wheels but if it's not here i'll be peeling my eyes to the base of the want because somebody is going to be to say yes a faint surely someone is going to revisit this. and i continue to get this to someone who supported radical logic i am ready to be lead by anybody loosely got a clue deal finally i don't know passable not long standing campaign of independence retiring at the election that should plan well you'd be standing on the sidelines cheering on the independence cause we could be contributing to the debate that would be at trying to get back into the battle fairly brief how are you going to translate from being a participant of the election to being a bystander well i'm standing down from the parliament but i'm not retiring how it a i intend to be very active in a whole range of things new at least campian in full independence because a pandemic i think has sure a lot why we need to be independent for example they did a lot better if we were able to stop at the logo in

a much much erlend we didn't we couldn't do that because we didn't have the control over the financial evils the things we've been talking about to date we can only do if you've got the pose of being an independent country so at the end of the d.d. independence for me it remains a number one objective and a law will be in a different rule all still be working for independence we'll have a speedy robin mcalpine thank you so much for joining me on the alex aman show. pleasure many governments particularly in the west are still struggling with the balance between the health consequences of suppressing corvet and the impact of the contagion itself. over the course of this winter they'll be an increasing focus on the economy as the full impact of progressive locked ends becomes apparent and the bills which have been accumulated come flooding through the fiscal lecture books the american election will determine a great deal about the social direction of a deeply polarized society it is less clear that it will present

a significant economic shift in direction the end product on the world economy may have other lie in the approach of america to halt economic institutions and of course trade deals economic orthodoxy after the great depression of the 1930 s. meant that it took a looming world war to direct the leading economies back to full capacity similarly after the great recession of 2009 overcautious economic policy produced a decade of a steady and falling living standards in many large countries however tough times certainly provoke new thinking and economies large and small the question is how quickly does creative thought translate into policy action the answer will determine locally i'm globally whether the world emerges blinking into post-school with sunlight or whether the blight of a pandemic is to placed by a prolonged economic darkness but for now for myself alex and all that issue it's

good bye stacey and we look forward to seeing you all again next week. a dark industry comes to life in los angeles every night. dozens of women sells abilities on the streets many of them under-age. police reveal a taste of their daily challenge no if you're going to exploit a child here in los angeles they were going to come as you would see officers going undercover as 6 workers and customers to fight the 6 trade.

your. fears about health care collapse hospital workers and friends protest when dealing resources in the fight against cope with 19 we haven't planned it is a measure that can be beneficial to see what happens i think it is not enough the curfew is not the only problem we lack hospital bats no 6 stuff cannot be magic's out of a hat it is the responsibility of our ministers and president. 6 years after the m 817 plane tragedy russia steps away from talks with the netherlands and australia claiming neither wants to reestablish the facts all.