hello and welcome across town where all things are considered i'm really dealt with a little more than a week before the election many are asking the question do you believe the polls do we have good reason to do so should voters trust the polls and if you don't trust the polls will you trust the outcome of the election. to discuss polling i'm joined by my guest my linked in washington he is the g.o.p. strategist and in new york we cross to sarah norman she is a democratic strategist digital marketer and data scientist in the 2020 presidential election she served as the senior adviser of digital on the coming all the harris campaign already crossed out rules in effect that means you can jump any time you want and i always appreciate it ok let's go to a sarah sarah's that i guess the simplest question i can ask though his program because that is the topic of it should we trust the polls ok because we do have the

the after effect of 2016 but i think a lot of people exaggerate how much the polls were off ok they were but i mean since 0 significant. even if they had the same margin of error this time again a lot of the polls would say the outcome would be no different by the way so simple question then you're probably the ideal person to ask your digital person ok should we trust the polls. i trust the polls as a strong indicator of what's going on but we have to understand what they are saying and their limitations so 1st let's talk about what the polls are saying using 1016 as you mentioned as an example so in chick out the 16 b. average of said that hillary had about an 85 percent chance of winning well that means the coals were also saying that she had about an 85 percent chance of losing so if you're picturing hillary rolling the dice. pollsters don't control it she

rolls that one in 7 chance where she loses so that's what the polls are saying we're talking about chances but we also have to consider the polls limitations so in this year i think of it as 2 sets of limitations we have the normal limitations that happen every election cycle and then there's limitations that are special to 2021st talking about the normal limitations so every poll has a margin of error for a reason we know that there's going to be groups that are under counted in 2016 it became notorious for undercount counting the impact of education levels this year we don't know what it's going to be it could be women for example right now biden has a 26 point lead among women so there's probably very few women for trump to grab so to speak but if women stay home they will be handing the election over to trump and then we will be saying that the polls got it wrong but what's special this year is

the unique challenges to 2020 the polls don't account of correctly for voter suppression because we don't know how big the impact will be we do know when where people have access to voting it's an advantage to democrats were less people back to voting it's an adventure publicans but what's especially unique this year is it's the 1st time that we have an american president casting doubt on the election results before they even come in so we're really talking about 2 things do we trust the polls and do we trust our democracy the answer to the 1st question for me is yes we trust the polls they're pretty good indicator of the chances of how people will vote but do we trust our democracy will we trust the results even at the polls got it right that's an entirely different question the reporter cannot answer your military how do you respond to that do you trust the polls because. in the last couple of days here they talked about. narrowing but sarah just brought up

a really good point i mean looking at the. the constituency of women and trump is doing very poorly there you know and just in kind of kind of in life in this conversation is that it's it seems like is it dead heat in georgia i mean i thought that was a red state ok so do you trust the polls. so the polls we have always used polls to determine many things elections are just one of them so yes i believe polls 'd 'd i trust polls because that's the only gauge that we have to really know what's happening in it in an election we've always used as sarah said 2016 was a different story i don't know it's for me and i know a lot of conservatives out there you know they're saying that of course we're going to have a repeat of 2016 we really don't know we don't know and we won't know until election day because if there are say that there are a number of factors that are present now i honestly wonder about the number of

under counted so for instance me when i'm out socking to so many people not just black not just why not just asian or hispanic the number of those i just wonder what the polls can account for what they don't know so if you aren't really polling or able to hold people who would never ever say that they're supporting donald trump then you don't get you don't capture that number so i actually wonder how many of those voters who are just simply afraid i know i do i have so many who are in my message box and they're often saying i would never say it publicly but i support truck that could be a very very small number we don't know that but it could actually be a number that's substantial enough to flip the election in favor of donald trump i think that i think says erick didn't mention you know the 2 prongs that we're really dealing with but i think that one of the other things that we have to understand is that since 2016 our politicians. here in washington d.c.

definitely on the democratic side but in some cases republicans too but they have cast it doubt on don't trump all election so this is something we've been dealing with now since 2016 great there's a lot i know there are plenty of people don't even believe that trump is the president here i mean i don't want to get i want to i want to talk i want to talk about poll i'm a conservative you know and you know i'm not voting for for a bike but i'm just in the polls because i think this is what's going to get down to sarah what is the correlation of people making a preference stating a preference and actual voter turnout is a very good research on that are you talking about the idea of a shy voter i would give them kind of leading to that what i'm just saying is it because we have this very day and we in we have to tell our viewers because it's international is that each state has different laws about how you count votes a bit but we have absentee we have mail and i mean it's much more complicated that way and i wonder is there any polling data that tracks that because of the way the

election is being conducted this year or is that just an unknowable. so we know that there will be some margin of error about why every poll comes out with a margin of error 2016 was actually in the normal margin of error. terms of people saying they're going to vote one way and then they vote another tribe that's i what i'm saying not voting i mean there's a preference but they end up not voting and that's what my question is that if one of the biggest question of the election but what i would say i think a lot of people are looking to the early the early vote to answer that which i believe is a mistake just because there's a large amount of early vote is not mean that we're going to see less people show up on the election day so i'm going to chop that up too i wish i had the crystal

ball to say if people who say that they're going to vote are actually going to vote we know that that was a big mess by hillary supporters in 2016 they thought that hillary has this in the bag misunderstood the polls they thought that 85 percent chance met she's definitely going to win i don't have to show up let me be clear you know if you supported by it and to say ok has it in the bag i don't need to show up and vote would absolutely be a mistake there is a chance that trump is going to win about the same chances he had in 2016. ok we're going to talk about the shy trump voters ok mostly is that is it real i mean because when we think about it me know when i think when someone calls me on my phone and i don't recognize the number i usually don't answer it's ok but i don't know that you know it's i don't want to spam and personally why should i tell someone on the telephone what i think about politics i don't know about personal k.

you're seem like nice people to me and i'm telling you what i think you're you get my point here i mean because of the way trunk is treated by the media is. maybe there's a good percentage of people to say well you know i'm i can tell you what i think. i honestly think that shah is really too modest at work there are people literally afraid there are in the end it's not just hyperbole i know people who are under no circumstance would probably fail if you want else this or they're supporting trump airfreight for their jobs their frayed for someone myself who lost many friends when i decided to support donald trump this is real not everyone is outspoken as i am and feel comfortable talking to people about why he support but i absolutely believe that the number of shot or a silent that silent majority who supported donald trump i do believe that that number is definitely greater in 2020 much more so than it was in 2016

because it's better much more damaging to say that you support donald trump now as opposed to $2160.00 how does the polling model to deal with what's called the shy trump voter is there a way you can do it. and here is but let's let's be clear not talk about your point in this packet while there may or may well be a shy trump voter or a shy biden poll where they are unlikely going to have a huge typical impact on the election there is some evidence on the state level or trump voter very gamble i saw a poll yesterday in new hampshire that republican voters were much less likely to openly say that they plan to vote for trump this year than democrats saying that they plan to vote for biden however i mean that's just where trump has about a 15 point lead so it's not going to make a huge the typical impact in on the national level it seems that there's just as

many bite a shy biting voters as voters you know when we look at the national level to address. your question directly the way that we answer it is we see ok well when we take polls over the phone to people change their answers compared to when we take it and nominate my and the answer is both on the biden side and the trucks a quarter or stays about the same so i don't see this as being at huge impact on the election never heard of a shot by him go to i'm never heard of or if you should talk to some people in california. well you can start in the red if you heard of such a thing as a as a shot by voter and this is this is a very very new i've never heard of a shy bided voter at all so true it may exist but i don't know what's the damage

and outing yourself as a buy to vote or you know one of the things that i think that you know because of 2016 this is created a lot of doubt in people's minds and and it's really mean we don't have to go into the weeds of the numbers right now but it was only in a few congressional districts that really made the difference ok in the 2nd half of the program all the talk about the possibility and this really interesting if you look at the lip talk in the electoral college it's not impossible that at this point either candidate could have almost a landslide and that's really boggles the mind ok when you have such it with what's called a title election but it is same time and i don't think we're going to hear it on election night or in the next morning but they could radically go each way and i want to talk about that when we come back or when to jump in we go to a short break and after that short break we'll to you know what a special poll say about.

an entire village in alaska. if another country threaten the wife of an american. we do everything i. wanted me to skipping climate change poses the same threat right now alaska has seen some of the fastest coastal erosion in the world we lost about 30 feet. 35 feet of ground in just about 3 months while we were measuring. and that means the river is 35 closer to how. long was. i don't think we're part of the 1st for a. lot

of people talking about is this the beginning china as the world's superpower but they're not thinking about another end of an era and that would be the us central banks. welcome back across town where all things are considered i'm purely military mind you discussing polling. ok well let's go back to syria so in looking at some of the commentary not experts you're an expert but the comments coming on the election and we again our viewers have to understand it's not the popular vote that elects the president at least at

this point in american history it is this stage is the electoral college here now some of the scenarios i have looked at here it's. possible within it's within the realm of possibility to use your exact language if it's within the realm of possibility that either candidate could run away with this how could that have been explained. by right away do you mean when in the landslide or scattered doubt no i mean i mean when signals are 30300 electoral votes yes so right now they are is of about a 35 percent chance if you agree with the polls that buy them a win in a landslide and a thout a one percent chance that trump will win in the landslide so again i'm not saying it's not possible for trump to do that there is that one percent chance if you agree with the poll it's just less likely than biden but what what i'm worried about because you know i don't think that that going to happen you know even if it

happens on the biden side we have that about one 3rd chance or he wins a landslide you know that means there's about a 2 thirds chance that he doesn't and also trump doesn't win in the landslide if there is no way and slide i apologize to anyone who thinks that this is going to be a quick result on november 4th please buckle up this is going to be highly contested and less there's a landslide in either side and by the way usually we define landslide as a win of 10 points or more which again 2 thirds chance that neither side will have that and these will be contested for a long time in the courts well if you go back to washington. the reason why i really wanted to do this program is that you know people just doubt the the polls but because there is doubt of polls and series or hit on the on the head here people to doubt the outcome and no matter what it is it's ok to lead and that is

the scary part there not only is it a challenge to vote in this. eventually election cycle because of the pandemic but you know there is there's real suspicion on both sides unlike i've ever seen in my life i mean it's extraordinary i mean and it's really sad too because in the elections of those would be you know this is where you get out metaphorically of course and then you shake the competitors' him when it's all done but i don't see that happening and why is this the case here and you blame both sides for it and you blame the me and i believe it's an antiquated election system that can create these kinds of doubts i mean if you doubt the polls you're going to doubt the outcome and that's a bad place what do you think my friend and so absolutely we are living in a very partisan times and people they do donald trump things didn't get better

under donald trump for sure but going back to george bush we've had a very toxic political climate for a while you can even say clinton but i guess i'll start with social media area of maybe 2000 before social media so there's always been this type of toxic discourse post donald trump into 2016 election both sides have really done a really horrible job at encouraging us to trust our own instincts trust our own democracy they have there is an aura group here called the bipartisan policy center they produced a document that talks about the difference between absentee in mail and voting and the difficulty in doing that during a pandemic this is real but what is the discussion that we're having around the country democrats say that republicans don't want mail in mill in voting because it hurts. you know republicans republicans are saying that democrats want mail in

voting because it helps them you know this is just unfortunately a consequence of all years in yours. political living in a political climate where these were actually encouraged to distrust whether it's a republican in office or even when barack obama was in office we saw the same thing on the conservative side where we gear each other to not trust the government so the recent supreme court ruling here that actually gave pennsylvania i think it was up to 3 additional days for absentee count absentee votes there is no way in the world and i agree with sarah if it's a close election you can forget an immediate answer to who will on the presidency you can forget it well as they are and because of that hiatus that we're all expecting here you know the the worst partisans on both sides are going to make outrageous claims inflame the situation and. and we're just going to get to

a point unfortunately where people are just it's what we just heard is absolutely right that the faith in institutions institutional faith has gone down dramatically i mean who would have thought that the post office would be in the center of all of this is that you know sarah maybe to kind of get out of your kind of polling thing but just give me your kind of thoughts on politics one of the things that is seems to me that's different about this election or maybe it's an echo of 2016 too is that you know there is this demonizing of the voter and usually you don't do that it's not a good idea to do that to voters because they're the ones that are going to suppose you do the process here but we get we could get on both sides ok you know the whole smelly wal-mart people and then and then then these liberal elitists and things like that you know and and then they bring in there there's issues about their social issues and cultural issues but i've never seen voters so demeaned in the political process and i think that's really dangerous and when you do that and you guess and again you degrade the institutional process your thoughts you know that

makes me really sad to hear that you feel that voter had been demon i i i certainly hope that you are not sure the diplomat. you know i don't i i disagree with that what i would say at where we can agree is we need to hold our leaders accountable and make sure that they are talking about what we want them to talk about that we show up on voting day based on the issues that actually impact our daily lives which right now are there in majority of the american and it's a pandemic economy and their health care and you know i think that there's a lot of distraction going on but i think that that's what will make people show up on the election day or vote early. and that how we hold our leaders accountable or you know it's very i'm so glad you say that because if you look at it it's

a bipartisan if there really are a lot of bipartisan things in american politics you know in the in the number one things that you list that democrats list as you go is exactly the same thing that republicans like but we don't get that in the political rhetoric all the time i agree with you with me in watching these debates you know everyone focuses only on the form i'm far more interested in the content you know they are are are people going to be taken care of you know or you know are they going to be made whole ok i think either candidate would say that would run away with this election but neither candidate can say that i'm ok and of course i'm out and i'm a i'm a conservative but i think you know the the failings of the health care system are so obvious for everyone to see during this pandemic but it's not part of the political process can you address that because it seems to me and i have talked to thousands and thousands of people on this program is that you know you know at the grassroots you're so much common ground but is soon as it goes up the political

ladder kind of kind of forget about us i mean how do you explain it well i give you that i give you a real life example there are the g.o.p. police reform bill the g.o.p. police reform bill and the democrats' bill. reform bill there did the democrats agreed what about 90 percent of what was in the g.o.p. bill 90 percent that's that's simply amazing but what happened is is that politics got into it and so then democrats decided that well hey we're not going to support that off response because i've done the same thing i'm not one of those who excuses everything that the republican party does but i also believe that it's important that we hold both sides accountable not just the ones that you agree with but even the ones that you may disagree with at times and so this is a function of years and years you mentioned the poor girls yes the 2016 report deplorable so people can say that they you know we misinterpreted what she said but there was also 2012 with mitt romney talking about the 49 percent of americans will

always vote democrat or in that time for barack obama this and you were talking about what the language that we use about voters now voters on both sides there we turn the jungle into all these evil creatures who for many many of us you're simply our neighbor. yeah yeah i think absolutely because you know no matter how rich you are everyone needs health care ok this implies that i mean if the if we look at the i guess as we're speaking right now the stimulus talks are are installed and go on ok that's an 8020 years issue 8020 issue among the population 2080 and neither party is going to act on that here that's why going back and i think senator you're the one that brought it up 1st is that you know this lack of faith in institutions i mean my goodness if you have an 8020 is you

it's a real wake up call and you know what it's easy to win if you're not an 80 twentieth's you hear you know. we're almost out of time here. what is the what's the best case for someone that does what you say your profession about polling what are you looking for what mistakes are you looking for what are the weaknesses as we go into this traumatic event november 3rd you know i actually feel pretty good about the polls because we expect the polls to have air every pull has a margin of error so in terms of after the election is over when we're questioning at the polls got it right i think that we're going to have they say hey yes we missed this one thing at the expected you know we expect something unexpected. my fear my worst case scenario is that the election never ends because of predication so i'm hoping for a landslide who went to paris all of that. well i think that you know and we can

end on this note here is that unfortunately like so much other things in our daily life is it's going to be litigated ok and i think that's that's sad i mean i was disappointed with not not because of the outcome in 2000 but that the supreme court had had to do it and i think that was kind of a. a failing of the process ok and we should have learned from that you know to avoid you know dangling chad i think it was ok affair i don't even think you were born and then. we're going to have mark my words we're going to has something like that ok. on the week of november 3rd ok so hopefully you both come back and we'll can be we'll talk about what went right and what went wrong what they both my guess your molly and sarah and want to take our viewers for watching us here are easy next time remember.

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