hello, and welcome to cross talk where all things are considered. what can we expect from a bygone ministration when it comes to russia? as things stand today, relations are ever brought bottom biden's orbit is replete with hard liners in neo cons with a long record of foreign policy failure could relations continue to get worse to discuss this and more i'm joined by my guest, michael o'hanlon in washington. he is a senior fellow and director of research in the foreign policy program at brookings, as well as author of beyond nato, a new security architecture for eastern europe, also in washington. we have brian becker, he's the executive director of the answer coalition. and in moscow we cross to,

maxie should go, he is an expert at the russian international affairs council. originally crossed out rules in effect. that means you can jump in anytime you want. and i always appreciate it. ok, let me go to maxime 1st here in moscow. by all accounts, we're going to have a, by ministration and january, now, given the background of the russia gate hysteria hoax and the antipathy and really deep hatred of russia in the american political class and particularly the media here. what is, what is the kremlin expecting in january when it comes to american foreign policy towards your country, go ahead. 1st of all, i think the relationship between the united states and russia would have continued to deteriorate anyway, regardless of what would in the end, the white house, and especially think the expectations are peter, listen, our 2 words, the bible and ministration on 2. on 2 particular issues, as long as you mentioned, mention in your introduction, the intersection is filled with people with and

a long, long record. deep criticism to put it very mildly towards russia and their new ideas on military interventions. but most importantly, i think, given the ability of the united states is divided now politically and ideologically and socially. what unites the democratic administration under the, by and under my rule is that they think that democracy at home and abroad is in danger. you know, it's under pressure from what they call the populists inside the west, and also rick perry and leaders outside the west. and lattimer putin is clearly, you know, sitting up on both accounts as someone some want to tackle. so i expect it will be a lot of pressure on moscow over into human rights actors and things like this. and the 2nd goal, poland, wish, makes people in and policymakers and in moscow, particularly, you know, critical or, you know, here's the most of what may be expected of biden. is that under a truck? it was the that the fall in the world were 2 united states policy has been based

upon 2 pillars, you know, predominance and litter ship and truck kind of maintained the predominance component ones into how the united states strong militarily economically. but he kind of doubled down on what is perceived as litter ship, you know, in his view, kind of not willing to, to carry the burden for, for the allies. and i think out of the wind astray, she would see the 1st 2 to reinforce american standing on both accounts. and the leadership and predominance and russia here is again, may be viewed as a particularly a challenge. 1 so is it gives me in this area, you speak like a diplomat, kate, one thing in a diplomatic words. michael, how, how do you see it? i mean, is it by just going to revert back to the policy that obama had? and because a lot of people around biden are people who are around obama. ok, and i think it's very fair to call them hardliners and the neo cons. he's greatest

fear. thanks for having me back on. it's nice to be with you again and friends in russia and around the world. you know, i'm a little more hopeful in the sense that there are a couple of reasons i'm more hopeful. one is we actually aren't talking nearly as much about russia and as you say, russia gay as we had been, i think over 19 has taken over a lot of the oxygen in the room. the donald trump presidency, which as you know, is very controversy over here, whether you like him or not, it was controversy, understand how the issue has been a little less in the front and center. secondly, i don't think the biden team would see any great benefit to having a showdown with vladimir putin. i mean, people have lowered expectations, of course, of what this relationship can be. but it doesn't mean that they really see an opportunity for a 0 sum competition in america's favor. the places we are presently locking horns, which are largely in eastern europe and the broader middle east are areas that by and i think would like to minimize his engagement because there's no real benefits of him getting more involved in those places. and the last point i'll make and

other way i don't dismiss any of your concerns, i'm just trying to give a little bit of a, of a sort of slightly more hopeful spent. i don't know if bill burns, for example, will have a role in this administration, the former deputy secretary of state, but he's well regarded in the democratic party circles. and i'm not sure if you've had a chance to read his book yet the back channel, but it's a very sophisticated view of the u.s. russia relationship, which may be more critical of certain russian officials than, than some of your listeners may prefer. but it's not devoid of sort of a broader historical perspective on russia and its pride as a nation, its rights as a nation, and how we have to rethink the u.s. russia relationship going forward. so if someone like bill burns has influence, then i'm a little more hopeful as well. it will, hopefully it's not susan rice. brian, let me go to you, let me read some words from the, from joe biden here on the campaign trail. this is from the spring here, we must impose real cost on russia per a violations of international norms. norms really and stand was russian civil

society, which is bravely said, and again against president vladimir putin's the policy authoritarian system. that's the mindset of the next president that's going to be dealing with russia. not hopeful in my mind. it's a, it's a bit hard to say, although i agree with you, generally speaking, i mean, think about when, when the biden obama team came into the white house in 2009, the 1st one, the 1st absolutes, do have hillary clinton go. and when that big red button robin said, let's press the reset button. and it was clear that the obama and the obama biden ministration were hopeful that there would be an improvement in u.s. russian relations. in other words, it's not an existential ideological orientation. on the part of what's changed is the political atmosphere in the united states since 2009,

such that anyone who speaks up in favor of an improvement in u.s. russian relations will be tarred as some, some kind of puppet, for putin or, or a proxy for the kremlin and so i think the language on the campaign trail may well reflect this general atmosphere, such that biden can't say anything about the improvement of relations. the real issue is why did the relationship deteriorate? why did we go from that big red reset button to immediate sort of degeneration or devolution in the relationship? and i think there's 22 issues there. one is what happened in syria, where russia came in and made it clear that the russians would like their position on libya, where they abstained at the u.n. . they were going to make a decisive intervention. this say no, we're not going to allow regime change to be taken, take place against the us, a government. and then of course, the coup d'etat in february 2000,

routine in ukraine, which was considered by russia. actually to be hyper aggressive on the part of the of the obama administration. and because russia stood up and said, no look funny, it is not created, be turned into a nato base. that was considered to be a cardinal sent. the question is, for biden, in the team, do they accept the fact that russia actually has legitimate national in regional interests, and will they accept that or not, or do they want to continue down this path of hyper aggressive demonization? maybe perhaps because america needs big enemies like china and russia to justify the looting of the national treasury, which is actually what's going on by the continued increase in military spending. you know, max might seem like we already heard it from brian here. i mean, when i, when i look at american foreign policy makers in the media that there is this run for, i don't, the top that russia has no legitimate security interest of its own. it's almost

taken as a given. and i find it so bizarre because everything, every country, every nation state has interest in it will obviously pursue it. but russia, when it tries to pursue its, it is somehow some kind of rogue character on the international stage. i mean, do you find that frustrating? i do find it frustrating a limit because on what brian said and kind of go back to what michael's talking about. i think the what my whole brian described actually under obama, the real issue was, would on a very negative trajectory end this crisis. the way you describe syria, you're crazy, are still there. and you know what michael says, he is more optimistic outlook for what may come next for us fresh relations. i'd love to side with him, but i just don't see any objective grounds for, for this optimism. simply because i do really of that, russia may be a lesser the domestic issue for the united says for now. now that the democrats

control the white house, but i think russia will return to where it has been ever since. pretty much just 1008, if not earlier, as a key geo strategic adversary for the united states. and can i take people like the tony blinken, or michelle flournoy who may be you know, all occupied positions? somebody defense secretary national security adviser one day when the lincoln, for instance, the biden team should revise. what he sees was the major blunder of the obama administration, which is serial policies will lead a lot of syrian opposition groups down. and you know, when people in moscow hear this use, the question is, what do we make of it doesn't mean that the united states is there, went back to reinforce if not to do anything, anything constructive, but just to know, play game up. denial of the michael, michael, do you think that maybe by a new administration is going to take another swing at regime change in syria

because we're always told it because of the of the russians. ok, i mean is this, are we just going to have to reset back to 2016? go ahead. max and you raise an interesting question, but i've heard tony blinken talk about this as well. and my interpretation of where tony is coming from. i've known tony for 20 some years. he's a very humble guy, and when i heard him talk about syria, it was more to criticize the united states early east as much to criticize the united states as to criticize russia. in the sense that tony knows, this was not a stellar accomplishment of the obama administration. anything at all that happened within syria. and you can be critical of russia's policy and also be critical of america's policy. i think that's where tony blinken would put himself also. i think he knows enough to know this is just simply not worth going back to. i mean, what are we going to do? restart a civil war that's already been the most tragic of the 21st century. whatever your take on why it got so bad and who is most at fault,

there is no good to com from starting it over again. you know, i see no reason to think he would you think that by going astray, she would do the right thing and remove troops from syria, which are there uniquely under international law. but i'm not sure that's the right thing. as long as we don't know how to vouch for the well being of the syrian kurds . so i think what they'll try to do is see if there can be some kind of an autonomy arrangement that protects those northeastern syrian kurds. and if they can get that, then i think they would be content to leave. that would be my best guess. ok. right . and it's all about the kurds. ok, fine. but i mean there's, there's plenty of resentment that they've lost after this huge effort. they lost in syria and they want their revenge. it seems clear to me 30 seconds. go to you, brian. before we go to break, i don't think there is any revenge. i think i would like on that i think the civil war has basically ended. there was a military victory for the assad government. it's egg on the face of the united states, but it's not the central issue for the united states. syria is for american foreign

policy. something of a side show, not, of course for the syrians. so i don't think that this is going to be the dominant issue going forward. i don't think well, talk about we'll talk about many issues when we come back here gentlemen. we're going to go to a short break, and after that's our break, we'll continue our discussion. the u.s. russia relations stay with me. is your who via reflection of reality in a world transformed what will make you feel safe. so i sell a show called community. are you going the right way or are you being less?

what is true? what is faith? in a world corrupted, you need to descend to join us in the depths or a maid in the shallows. there's a lot on the board, but especially with big city, bright lights, you just put you to use and many dangers to play with the right to do. it's also a city where up 230-0000 crimes are committed every day, but over the last one, but able to do most it's still true. the reason police one police officer think every 200 residents in russia's capital cost on the english. i mean, to put their troops at the will not go up,

but i assume that those who would have to mostly bad guys are financial survival. they say money that the allies put into these if this is a central plank support diagram, is going to call them right now. say stop the welcome back to cross talk. we're all things are considered. i'm here a little to remind you. we're just discussing a by foreign policy towards russia. when he does go back to maxime makes him what could the united states and russia work on?

i mean, when we have a divided opinion on this program so far, i don't think that the biden ministration is going to break with the past, you know, hating russia hating, who pays a modicum of evidence, stepping out of line. there's huge penalties here. so what can the u.s. and russia work on together with this soviet union? so you want people, photo of you now to face those 2 entities did accomplish many things together, right? i think will the arms control and then to prolongation of the start treaty is one thing. when people frequently mention when they talk about a potential for cooperation between the 2, between moscow and washington, and obviously, you know, i will come to office to weeks before the start treaty expire. so he promised an automatic proliferation of the treaty. so that may be an optimistic note. that said, however, if we kind of hunch,

flip the coin and look at it differently. this will pretty much exhaust the any, constructive agenda of the u.s., russia relations in early or early next year. so after the prohibition of the treaty, you don't really have anything substantial to talk about. now you, you know, you may have 5 years or 3 or so one year, depending on for how long the treaty may be prolonged for us to discuss, you know, concrete matter. some of the, treating me think about, you know, other armstrongs related issues. but i would think that he not, he says, will still want to f. china in the treaty and russia will continue to pose other things like the open skies treaty that now russia, you know, pressure on the europeans to provide some guarantees that you know, american aircraft are not going to fly over the russian territory, tons of things, plus you have in the bite, in this regime, people who can very critical of russia's own kind of records keeping with the, with these arms control deal. so there is deep, you know, divide and also distrust and you mentioned, you know, the record between this, oh, it's an americans and you remember, and all of you remember,

i'm sure they do reconcile. and the guy they had to trust, but verify. i think under, by the administration, the long local the slogan, don't trust an reverify as far as arms control are, are concerned. so i'm pretty, pretty pessimistic on that account as well may go further than the arms control plus this initiative by trump on the modernization of american nuclear arsenal. militarization of space. and i think these things are there to say, even though you know, there are biden this regime and cut the defense budget and spend it on climate change. for instance, are all the matters. i think it's still, you know, given that there's been an attempt on coralie one district, she's going to retreat american commitments to transit to foreigners. there might be again, a new kind of mentions for confrontation between the 2 countries. even even though it may have been a small to remote. thank you michel,

it's talk about what you know, what can be done. i mean, i brought up the example of the soviet union in the united states, and they were staunch focused for what we call the cold war here. but they still worked on agreements to their mutual benefit. and historically speaking, arms control agreements, people kind of like, ok, i mean it's, you know, it's people on the fringes a don't like them here. kim, kim, these kind of things be done. also, i want to reiterate counterterrorism and climate change. and these things be done in isolation, in this relationship just you know, laser focus on those things here and not touch the rest of the toxic relationship that i think is going to be toxic for at least another generation. go ahead, michael. how i think that is possible, as long as things don't get worse in other domains at the same time. so if we had an intensifying confrontation, somehow in the broader middle east, somewhere it would be hard to simultaneously pursue even a modest arms control agenda. but if we can sort of just more or less stabilize the

competition, so to speak, not end it and not agree on everything, but just not see things deteriorate from libya to syria, to elsewhere. maybe get some cooperation on iran. maybe get some cooperation on a new start. maybe china simply signs on to say they're not going to build up their arsenal. they don't have to be a full party to the treaty. but they could make some kind of an attach statement that would bring that and in some broader sense, allow the focus to stay on the u.s. and russia. and then peter, as you know, one of my big concerns is the security architecture for eastern europe. and here i think what the best concept that i can come up with is to get some of the wise men and women on both sides, like on our side, sam, non military, people who have a thoughtful perspective on russia who understand a little bit of russia's history, its view of itself as a great power in eurasia, and have them talk to some of their counterparts in russia and start to sink about how we could build a new security architecture concept without bringing the government in right away

because it's going to be too much if not all the russians have been proposing this since the year 2000. ok. i mean it's the russian side that has been saying this year that at the same time you have, it's like a unit party when it comes to foreign policy. and then you still have these voices, you know, we have to bring in georgia, we have to bring in ukraine into it, into nato, who knows, maybe armenia as well here. that's, that's a one way conversation. you know, brian and i have to be convinced, i have to be convinced that you seem to downplay the syrian situation. i think they can be easily ignited again at low cost for the united states and a high cost for russia and a high cost per syria. and the region just to be intentionally keeping in a quagmire. and i'm quoting a famous policymaker quagmire. all right, also when ukraine ok, more arms the ukraine, the point isn't it? what's to stop the biden ministration in and the people that have it out for russia, and it's very clear the public record is very clear. just so you know,

this keeps still going on the efforts of destabilization in ukraine in syria here. and for them, it's a low cost and it's a headache for russia that's, that seems to be the overall feeling that i get from these people disagree with me . no, i don't. i actually don't disagree with you. and i, i don't mean to actually say that it's syria's off the table as a flashpoint or renewable for intensifying hostility. but it may not be, even if it's not what's with driving us policy now, is really the new pentagon doctrine, the new pentagon doctrine was adopted as a consensus position without any substantial debate. i mean, just think of it, we went from the war on terror, identifying excedrin as the principal enemy, to identifying major power conflict as the top priority for contingency planning,

budgeting, prioritization, in terms of military plans, the adoption again, without consensus that the outer space,, treaty of 967 should be essentially scrapped in the u.s., should adopt a position of gaining absolute supremacy and dominance in outer space. the new high ground for the next wars. i mean, what's going on in the arctic? i mean, we have the pentagon is driving us policy here in the pentagon doctrine is actually sort of an altar at which all of the politicians genuflect. and as a consequence, biting whether it's into the lincoln or michelle floor. know it or susan rice, whether somebody's a little bit more liberal or a little bit more hardline. i don't think that really matters. i think it's the pentagon doctrine, which is to prepare this country for a conflict with china and russia, even if they don't want a war. the whole tendency in trajectory is towards confrontation. that leaves

little room for people who are advocating for reconciliation or rapprochement toward detente. or finding the points of unity so such that if there's an arms control agreement or the us returns the pairs climate talks, i don't think it's going to fundamentally alter the new orientation of extreme animus and hostility towards russia. even if it's not all the atmospherics, that's going to continue because that's the pentagon doctrine, which drives us foreign policy. no, i love the part from that, you know, actually in the waning days of visit ministration here and i'm sure you're well aware of it is that trump has been fighting tooth and nail to get american troops out of afghanistan and, and iraqi air. and, and i'm kind of echoing what bryant is that here, that the, the pain, the pentagon's going to do what it wants to do, irrespective what the president apparently wants to do, that should send chills down everyone's back because it doesn't matter what the

president did, not if they say, joe biden might have friendly tweets, ok, but i'm not agreeing with brian. the policy isn't going to fundamentally change. and i'd like to point out, you know, if i can just say personally as an american living in russia for 22 years, i've come to the conclusion. maxine that the u.s. and russia don't have to be friends, but they certainly should never be enemies. these go through, i eagled that sentiment actually double down on the arm even in syria and ukraine in particular in any other regional conflict. obviously, i share the view that so there is little self interests. as far as american national interests are concerned for the united states and syria, or in ukraine for that matter. neither syria nor ukraine heard about syria and ukraine. in my view, it's really about this as we in moscow. see it that we're most wallace makers in moscow says it is very, it's a galaxy, you know, vision and washington, russia in china, engender

a literature then standing in the international arena and as one senior official from the obama national security council remarks. speaking in moscow, i think it was in 2017 that so simply, we could not not react to russia's actions in syria because it would set a dangerous precedent. say for china to challenge an american sending in the index if it were to sell southeast asia. so there has to be action against raw all these theaters, if only to sustain and reinforce american sending in the world. and i think given the american position as we've been over the past few years, they'll be a significant effort to get us back in the game. and you get pretty much all wind in the old and new bottles which say, michael, you've been on this program many times and i think you and i would both agree that there's a lack of trust. how do we get around? it isn't of a long time period. how. how did these 2 countries regained some trust?

one minute to you, michael, go ahead. i think you begin with people who are not sitting in the oval office and the kremlin. i think that to expect that biden and putin are going to be buddies, is unrealistic. there's too much water under the bridge. there are too many fundamental disagreements. what you begin with are people who care about the relationship and understand a little bit about each other's country. and that's why i talk about people like sam nunn and bill perry and then you begin to develop an agenda off of that. the, beginning of the conversation is not how do we solve issue x. y. or z.? the beginning of the conversation is to take a bigger view, a longer view of how we got to where we are. so that's the best i can do, but i would make that more than just a small little, you know, occasional dialogue off. you're on the side. i would make sure that both sides report back to their leadership in the congress and you know, and from london white house would make sure that russians report to americans and vice a versa. and try to elevate, act and have

a dialogue about the my 1st dialogue will end on that point there. i want to thank my guests in washington in washington, and in most i want to thank our viewers for watching us here. are you see you next time? remember greater trenchard, to say simpson, exacerbating alarming everyone who mindlessly actually what that means is we end up picking solutions that cost a lot, but actually drink very little. it's just a kind of fuel. instead of people that want to

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