approach with very little regard for local specifics. i do think that we see a bit more differentiation now out at least among national policies. but at the general logically, the response is still based on, on the traumas to slow it, to having to slow down. depend on it, getting that promise in and of itself is the correct one. it's reasonable to try to slow down the pound demick. it's how much damage you want, except in the post says set ups in the cone of thought i was switzerland for example, how to close down. they try to keep things as open as possible and that in switzerland, the virus cases have peaked and now turning downwards. you're seeing the natural fluctuations of a win to the spirits revivalists. and it's a big question. how much of all these play to coney and pola says the debate

institute doing to change its fluctuations? oh, we're just accruing cost for very difficult gain against a natural fluctuation. and let's be clear, nobody has made that calculus publicly yet. we are in most of the countries we are sort of forced to accept the wisdom of our authorities with very, very little discussion about the cost of saving lives and you know, whole what other lives may be lost. in the meantime, now you've been arguing for a more targeted approach or what you call focus protection. but my question to you is how focussed out protection could be because at this point, we know pretty well for us are at the highest and at the lowest reason of it 1000 complications. but there's a huge area in between. you know, many awas fall in that gray zone of moderate risk people who will not die from disease, but who may still require

a lot of medical assistance. what do you think should be done about those people? i think people have to make a personal assessment of the issue, say of the high risk people, all the elderly how focused protection should be very much directed towards helping them and then showing they don't get cold feet, particularly the very elderly in homes because that's where the really substantial death basic lies, but yes, of course the people who for personal reasons will personal health issues well sign . those groups and support should be provided. and they would put the support in through china chinese. i would put it through local authorities. i would put it through personal physicians, and i do not believe that the state should be the monopoly supplier. i would get the people child councils, it's all the people who know the local telecine,

the ground, the people to provide it. and professor, i'm sure you see that there is a difference between for tat, protecting the most vulnerable, and i think that goes without saying you're not advocating for essentially abandoning them. but there is another issue of you know, of the bottlenecks within the medical systems. we all know that in most countries the most pressing issue is not just the number of bags and mailable, the number of physicians available. and this is a very finite and easily as astable resource. and your puns would tell you that sure. the current strategy is blunt, it's extremely expensive. it's harmful when it comes to the collateral damage, but ultimately it does what it's supposed to do, and that is sort of slowing down. didn't tied all of new hospitalizations of more direct risk. call it 1000 patients who again, are not in the, at the risk of dying,

but require a lot of medical assistance. they cannot be treated at home. many of them have to be taken to hospitals. try to say, try to prevent as many infections as possible. in those time, i devote this page should say the hospitals in the u.k. overloaded about 10 to 13 percent of hospital beds occupied by cold feet. patients over wall admissions from cold feet are not dramatically above those that you normally get for that at this time of year, for respect to treat infections. so my view would be that we've imposed these restrictions too. and again, the collateral damage that results is massive. certainly, i'm not all queuing for do nothing, and that's a bit, but my few is very much that we have panicked too soon,

and others lead to more damage. look back to what happened in the spring sweeten. famously did not lock down. surely the trajectory of hospitalized patients and deaths was very little different to what happened in the u.k. with the lights locked down well in france and spain with a much stricter lockdown. so if i understand you correctly, it all should depend on days, circumstances on the ground, and always in each country or an age. graphical account of the situation is different. for example, in russia, i'm hearing from doctors that unlike during the 1st wave of the pandemic ground, most of the people hospitalized for the elderly. now they're overwhelmed with middle aged males who seem to be for some reason more susceptible to these virus than let's say females. and in some regions afresh and the hospitals are working at

the end, i guess you 95 percent capacity. so what is constant? that situation, is there any other way apart from streaked, clumsy, low downs to slow the spread and you, after learning what you couldn't do, kid reached capacity. and you can often in particular, increase intensive care capacity within hospitals. so long as you get the judge decide if you need doctors for that. i mean exactly why be quick and do you have the funding for that? but you cannot train and nurse or doctor in a matter of just 3 weeks. sure. there are some professionals who are being retrained, but it's a bit again, as i said, it's a very fine add resource because these people to get exhausted, they get burned out so you can know them indefinitely. rely on them. surely, although i cannot speak for the situation in defeat in hospitals, i don't know. all i can say is soon as you can see,

which i am familiar with. we have not reached out ofa low point as yet, nor we've been close to it now. but the general advice across the world is that now, did you control the pandemic? one has to keep interpersonal interactions to an minimum. and this is something that i would like to take an issue with because we already know that the spread of this pandemic is not linear. i for one neighbors with the couple at an elderly couple. and in that case, the husband died from the comment, but his wife, who cared for him in his last days, didn't even get the virus. and there are many examples like this. when you know people seemingly in the same conditions of the same age group of the same house status, i stepped in differently. don't you think that perhaps we are focusing too much on how this wire is supposedly being passed rather than how it's being received in the

body? who gets it into their systems and who doesn't? i would agree with you, certainly in susceptibility to the 5 s. and you just get a great take sample. it might be human genetics that underlies, that's all that is good evidence that if you've had infection with kogo, divers says, and this for 5 or 6, which have secure lates it for many, many years. if you've had an infection with one of those, it make if you some across immunity to sauce cold too. and so you're less vulnerable to getting it as full disk situations. i think all full about 15 to 30 percent of households. it's a case tend to get infected. a lot of the transmission has been hospitals,

health care settings, which i hold to control simply by virtue of the people whom they hug. hospitality in the u.k. has been missing for close down vests to all hotels abbas and yes, she accounted for only about 3 to 4 percent of total transmission. so try to be pretty blunt tools have been used. now there's a lot of talk right now about testing and tracing when it comes to coronavirus. but i dared to suggest that, you know, we may also benefit from some sort of biological risk profiles. because at this point of time, in sort of to see him dead to you and me have the same, not a chance of dying from calling 1000 or acquiring or not. 9000. complications been don't you think that we also perhaps need to give people

a bit more at well, clearly understandable template for how they can make those calculation calculations about their personal risks because simply being in the one age group or another. dad, i don't think that one is the biggest single determinant of risk. i don't think there's much doubt about that, but sex is certainly a fact. obesity is a fact whether for example, you're a diabetic say, cardiovascular conditions, show numbers of foxes to play. livermore, we have to take a short break for the time being, but we will be back in just a few moments. the

world is driven by the day are things we dare to ask to be able to see, feel welcome. you should all just normal got hold of never will, you know welsh up in the open or just when you're welcome to be it was a march going on still perceives on the give up on the board was to be with the one

that yeah, you publish a novel you can use new york city, but i'm used to lead you to surround us. yes. but i wanted something to do that because these are a horde envelop. i don't know a good few of the local police, which is based on marco butros. put you own where one would you would please. you see just picked up a good bit. you push it down a little easy of lucas, which you appear to do with my poor father up here for our fellows.

welcome back to worlds apart. it's with dr. david livermore, professor in medical microbiology at the university of east anglia, and professor before the break, we were talking about the need for differentiated protection. and i would like to take an issue with the past if nature off of this protection, because there is an assumption the in many societies that the most vulnerable house to be protected by governments which there are. but i think one is being lost in this whole conversation is what people can do individually to improved our own defenses. things like cutting down on shergar which interferes with your cellular metabolism and immune function. exposure to this song, live, exercise, sleep, etc. why do you think there is so much focus on the collective action and so little

focused on the individua, you know, a way of strengthening your immune defenses. thank you for the opportunity to clarify that. what the great barrington declaration says, and certainly what i very strongly posted belief is that people who are they school should be given the opportunity of being increased protection that they should, everything should be made as easy as possible for them if they wish to accept that help but ultimately people in defeat, she will say with agency free will, and we live, i sincerely hope in a free society. it should be up to them to take additional personal risks if they wish to do so as through additional information. yes, please put out as much as possible about keeping in good health. that includes talking with people, ie kluges make keeping contact with your friends. it includes sunlight,

it typically includes taking for it to mean as well. certainly, i'm taking for it to mean present at perhaps it may not include being in a confined space for weeks and months on and on. and because i mean my limited knowledge of biology, it tells me that while it may postpone your encounter with call it, it would also put you out of disadvantage. find out and counter actually happens. it's certainly being isolated. it's not good for your mental health, not good for your general physiological status and may make us when you get infected. there's also they issue of clusium, unity with both the cone of viruses. if you're not saying countering them, it's plausible, it's proven, but it's plausible. you may be more full to soft, cold feet too. should you encounter thoughts in the future. so i certainly do not

think lockdowns a good for peter health and for people's mental health. is it appropriate to compare it's you essentially taking a shark alone on both personal and public health, you know, trying to minimize the harm today trying to get a bite of a at while minimizing the costs and expenses tomorrow. i think that's a very, very fact and it was never posed at the old w.h.o. plan. i looked only yesterday at the w.h. shows respect the tree influenza pandemics plan for 2019. that was not a single mention of lockdowns. this has been done to try to minimize deaths in the shuttle, but the amount of lung damage that is being piled up is stuck. and i think it's sort of being redefined in terms of what we're trying to do. i mean, initially we were told that the whole purpose of the lowdown is just to slow down.

and then he saw that we can provide help, but now it's being proposed as essentially a strategy, not an effort to tie the london stock to bloodletting, but rather to an effort to treat the whole thing. and it's a totally, i know you would, i would identify 3 phases in this. the 1st phase was just to flatten the unsold hospitals, told full well supported doctors, a short term measure. it was just not necessary. and essentially on the arguments that you yourself put forward a few moments ago about shortage of doctors and facilities. then through the summer, when the case numbers went down, probably just because this is a seasonal vine leaves us, then they got the notion that this could be suppressed completely through truck and trace. how soon would well, now we've got this further suppression, which is, well, can we keep going until of doxy,

and can be fully employed by 2 across populations and fingers crossed it? well, speaking of queens, all the hopes and now pay and on that scenes as something that can hopefully a release us from this state of emergency and uncertainty. i wonder though, if feds didn't see the allure of a panacea realistically, how a fact of good advice in be and i'm to viral facts and be especially in older populations . well, the data that we get healed vaccines so fallen for both and if declared into the results well more positive than i'd expected that the ficus see all over the pin, the 90 percent foot at least 3 of them and possibly the full 3. if you look at a subset, it's really pretty good. now that some short term protection we don't know with will persist, we're not sure how well it will last in the long term. and we're not certain of the

risk of the fibrous, mutating as it did in the danish minke a few weeks ago. but these are all really fairly positive data exceeds. and if we can, if we can get the bulk of the population, the cad as the doctors, the nurses and so on, vaccinated that it can just diminish the grey scale for the most vulnerable, but it's a foot away to besting. but to subdue sting 2. so on, that's the tip on fox seeds. what would be the best case scenario? how riparian facts, people, how to you, you minimize our war. there is an odd at risk groups every single year before the start of the flu season. is that, is that right? i don't think we know as yet, on the one hand we have the example of the saw as outbreak in east asia in 2003. and people have gone back and look to patients who had some was 17 years

ago when they found still got to give t. cells against saw, which suggests that they still got some immunity. they from the other hand, you look at natural infection by those full old coca-cola, 5 assists the partners, you get a coma virus, your immunity goes up and then they drain dills away over a year or 2. and you might get a 2nd time with the same goal in a 5 s. . so as yet we do not know how well, how long the protection against saws cold feet too, is going to last, either through natural infection or through, immunize, says, should the good news would be that even if it follows those full old cold fibrosis? the news usually that 2nd attacks, a mild festa talk because that is something you can now let me also ask a couple of questions about the so-called collateral damage it. tell me is that

saving lives is an absolute priority for governments. and i think it's obvious that they didn't stop for a 2nd of actually trying to define who and what it means. it's only now that the, c.e.o. all those accumulating consequences that we can start to be talking about big i think, the ecology of saving lives. and my question to you is, what do you think should be the guiding principles as we think about how to structure the response to this pandemic or to any other that may come our way? i think we have to do much more about balancing the short term and the long as you say, the effort has been what you call saving lives. i would say preventing short deaths because very many of those deaths, 50 percent in the u.k.,

have been in cat hold. it's now when you go into a cat home in the u.k., your life expectancy the afraid is 27 months. and if you look at the median, 50 percent of the people going into a cat home will be dead within 16 months. so a lot of effort has been protecting those folks who suddenly the end of their lives . and i'm somebody, it's hard to say these days, but all if is you and me to ultimately old the gods, the death. i should go out into the community. people fighting to go to hospitals. developing countesses hot hot to touch in the community not sought help when they should have done this death. scott said he and into the future in i feel a very large numbers who have the collateral damage. d h, e. c. business school and university of milan today. how to study out which

suggested, and i won't vouch for the mathematics, but i think it's illustrates. if in the united states $169000000000.00 spent, they believed to save about $29000.00 lives. that's 6000000 dollars a life. now that's way way of what he's normally spent say in a cancer treatment in a quality of life assessment. so this, this all has to be right. the, i didn't you. i think many of us fail to recognize that regardless of the advances in medical science, neither our governments nor our doctors can defeat nature and death. all will have to die at certain point and we will have will have to accept that. but let me be the devil's advocate for a for a while and use us interests in microbiology to perhaps help us guide the affix

here. isn't it also natural down to when you are presented with a new pandemic with a new path agenda? isn't it a sign, essentially natural for the government to prioritize people with that specific condition over others? i think we would both agree that this is exactly what our governments did. they not just save lives, but they save lives of trying to save lives of car on the patients at the expense of some other people's lives. and that bill has to be accepted if you want to have a mature conversation. but is that it isn't that inevitable? or are there ways of avoiding that and if you try think that was perhaps in the effort to pull in the spring when sauce cofee to 1st stroke on the west talk that it might help a case fatality rates put about 2 or 3 percent. so i've no to touch the to victual response in the spring to an old vibe. stuff was not in the bill,

but by the sun. we had a much clearer understanding of this fibrous, of who killed the case. fatality rate will wait. these are going to about a quarter percent, and these very much could snatch a change in particular populations. and it's not hard to find examples of countries which have followed polis says, which, oh, really question. able to take india for example, which, how to look down at the still of saul's cofee, of cold feet. they shut down a lot of businesses in the big cities. people were pushed out of the sixty's when migrating to close the country back to the whole towns top spreading the fibrous india later on. how to take over. well, so far, 140000 deaths. compare that with a full 100000 deaths

on them, which kilo sis a 5th of that in chilled to in india. and patients with kilo says that vastly disrupted by the covert lockdown, which will soon have time to play a resistance in the tuberculosis and make it harder to it's counterproductive in a developing country with a younger population which didn't have a vast maske wild cove. well as the road to hell is often paid by, by good intentions of politicians, professor, we have to leave it there. but thank you very much for being with us and sharing your thoughts, my absolute pleasure and joy, and thank you for watching home to syria. again, next week, the world apart. join

me every thursday on the alex salmond show and i'll be speaking to guests of the world of politics, school business, i'm showbusiness. i'll see you then. it's been decades since the fall of spain's fascist regime, but old wounds still haven't healed by war. in the past, at the scene of newborn babies were torn from their mothers and

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one or you'll have are you going to get some of the violence reignites in paris over controversial bill that would restrict the public and media from filming police. officers also this hour protesters burn israeli, and american flags in condemnation of the killing of iran's a leading nuclear scientist which tehran was quick to blame on its old, are try and present alike. joe biden packs. his comment with talks sparking concern about washed.