alas, wholesale and more targeted approach to dealing with this indictment. so i assume you are clearly and happy with the current response, at least in the united kingdom. would you go as far as saying that the current strategy does more harm than good? yes, i would look at cynic people cost. we have the u.k. challenge that the exchequer today saying that we will have an 11 percent reduction in gross national product was domestic product, the biggest recession for 300 years, that destroys the tech space. it destroys the amount of money that can be spent on future health care. more people are dying at holme because the white to go to hospitals. mental health services are stretched. the london ambulance face say they have a 68 percent increase in turnouts to suicides. i could go on and on,

but huge damage is done by the policies that have been followed. and i think this is a very important point that the correct collateral damage, as you call it, is not only huge it at this point, we haven't even been able to pass to made to long term consequences to healthy economy. you know, education, home, hard children, and cetera. but there is one i think, you know, small improvement is that a like last train. governments around the world were essentially copy coping each other's approach with very little regard for local specifics. i do think that we see a bit more differentiation now out, at least among national policies, but at the general logically, the response is still based on traumas to slow it, to having to slow down. depend on it. do you think that premise in and of itself is the correct one? it's reasonable to try to slow down the pound demick. it's how much damage,

except in the closest set ups. in the cone of thought i was switzerland, for example, how to close down. they try to keep things as open as possible and that in switzerland, the virus cases have peaked and now turning downwards. you're seeing the natural fluctuations of a winter who spits revivalists. and it's a big question, how much of all these plate to coney and pola says the debate instituted doing to change its fluctuations? oh, we're just accruing cost for very difficult gain against a natural fluctuation. and let's be clear, nobody has made that calculus publicly yet. we are in most of the countries we are sort of forced to accept the wisdom of our authorities with very, very little discussion about the cost of saving lives and you know,

whole what other lives may be lost. in the meantime, now you've been arguing for a more targeted approach or what you call focus protection. but my question to you is how focussed out protection could be. because at this point, we don't treat you well for our are at the highest and at the lowest reason of all that i can complications. but there's a huge area in between, you know, mania was fall in that gray zone of moderate risk. people who will not die from disease, but who may still require a lot of fanatical assistance. what do you think should be done about those people? i think people have to make a personal assessment of the basic issues, say of the high risk people of the elderly. how focused protection should be very much directed towards helping them and then showing they

don't get cold feet, particularly the very elderly in cat homes because that's where the really substantial death base clogs. but yes, of course, the people who for personal reasons will personal health issues well sign. those groups and support should be provided. and they would put the support in through china chinese, i would put it through local authorities. i would put it through personal physicians. and i do not believe that the state should be the monopoly supplier. i would get the people, child council seats, all the people who know their local tell the truth, the ground, the people to provide that service ensure you see that there is a difference between for tat, protecting the most vulnerable. and i think that goes without saying you're not advocating for essentially abandoning them, but there is another issue of you know, of the bottlenecks within the medical systems. we all know that in most countries

the most pressing issue is not just the number of bags and mailable, the number of physicians available. and this is a very finite and easily and sauce double resource. and your puns would tell you that sure. the current strategy is blank, it's extremely expensive. it's harmful when it comes to the collateral damage, but ultimately it does what it's supposed to do and that is sort of slowing down. didn't hide all of new hospitalizations of more direct risk. call it 9000 patients who again, are not in the risk the risk of dying, but require a lot of medical assistance. they cannot be treated at home. many of them have to be taken to hospitals as have tried to say, try to prevent as many infections as possible in those high. but this page should say, the hospitals in the u.k. overloaded about 10 to 13 percent of hospital beds

occupied by cold feet. patients over wall admissions from cold feet are not dramatically above those that you normally get for that at this time of year, for respect to treat infections. so my view would be that we've imposed these restrictions too. and again, the collateral damage that results is massive. certainly, i'm not all queuing for do nothing, and that's a bit, but my few is very much that we have panicked too soon, and others lead to more damage. look back to what happened in the spring sweeten. famously did not lock down. surely that trajectory of hospitalized patients and deaths was very little different to what happened in the u.k. with the lights locked down well in france and spain with

a much stricter lockdown. so if i understand you correctly, it all should depend on days, circumstances on the ground, and always stay in each country or any age. graphically kaleta. the situation is different. for example, in russia, i'm hearing from doctors that unlike during the 1st wave of the diamond crown, most of the people hospitalized for the elderly. now they're overwhelmed with middle aged males who seem to be for some reason more susceptible to these virus than let's say females and in some regions afresh, and the hospitals are working at that and i gets you 95 percent capacity. so what is constant? that situation, is there any other way apart from streaked, clumsy, low downs to slow the spread, and you have to learn what you could do to reach capacity. and you can often in particular, increase intensive care capacity within hospitals. so long as you get

to decide if you need doctors for that, i mean exactly why be quick meant you have the funding for that, but you cannot train and nurse or doctor in a matter of 23 weeks. sure. are there some professionals who are being retrained, but it's a bit again, as i said, it's a very fine to have resource because these people to get exhausted, they get burned out. so you can know that indefinitely. rely on them. surely, although i cannot speak for the situation in defeat in hospitals, i don't know. all i can say is soon as you can see, which i am familiar with, we have not reached dr. overload point as yet, nor the we've been close to it now. but the general advice across the world is that now, did you control the pandemic? one has to keep interpersonal interactions to an minimum. and this

is something that i would like to take an issue with because we already know that the spread of this pandemic is not linear. i for one neighbors with the couple at an elderly couple. and in that case, the husband died from the comment, but his wife, who cared for him in his last days, didn't even get the virus. and there are many examples like this. when you know people seemingly in the same conditions of the same age group of the same house status, i stepped in differently. don't you think that perhaps we are focusing too much on how this wire is supposedly being passed rather than how it's being received in the body? who gets it into their systems and who doesn't? i would agree with you, certainly in susceptibility to the 5 s. and you just give it, give a take some pull, it might be human genetics that underlies, that's all that is good as he doesn't say that if you've had infection with kogo.

viber says, and this for 5 or 6, which have circulated for many, many years. if you've had an infection with one of those it make if you some cross immunity to sauce cold too. and so you're less vulnerable to getting it as full disk situations. i think all full about 15 to 30 percent of households. it's a case tend to get infected. a lot of the transmission has been hospitals, health care settings, which i hold to control simply by virtue of the people whom they hog hospitality in. the u.k. has been missing for close down vests to all hotels. and yes, she accounted for only about 3 to 4 percent of total transmission. so try to be pretty

blunt tools have been used. now there's a lot of talk right now about testing and tracing when it comes to coronavirus, but i dared to suggest that you know, we may also benefit from some sort of biological risk profiles because at this point of time in sort of to see him dead to you and me have the same, not a chance of dying from calling 1000 or acquiring or not 9000 complications. but don't you think that we also perhaps need to give people a bit more at well, clearly understandable template for how they can make those calculation calculations about their personal risks. because simply being in the one age group or another down. i don't think that is the biggest single determinant of risk. i don't think there's much doubt about that, but sex is certainly

a fact. obesity is a fact whether for example, you're a diabetic say, cardiovascular condition. so numbers a fact supply. professor livermore, we have to take a short break for the time being, but we will be back in just a few moments elderly, forward to talking to you all that technology should work for people i robot must obey the orders given by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the 1st law show your identification for should be very careful about artificial intelligence. and the point of view is the too great

a very thing with artificial intelligence where some of the group must protect its own existence as it's been decades since the fall of spain's fascist regime. but old wounds still haven't healed. the bottom is pretty famous because only from, you know, negotiate a market economy supposed to me on the bus at the source me there were a bunch of the same question. 20 1000 of newborn babies were torn from their mothers and given away and forced adoption. the only lot of money was the feast that if i don't grow up or there's a feeling element to this day,

mothers still search for grown children while looking in hope for their birth parents. welcome back to worlds apart with dr. david livermore, professor in medical microbiology at the university of east anglia professor before the break, we were talking about the need for differentiated protection. and i would like to take an issue with the past if nature of this protection, because there is an assumption the in many societies that the most vulnerable house to be protected by governments which there are. but i think what is being lost in this whole conversation is what people can do individually,

improved our own defenses. things like cutting down on shergar which interferes with your cellular metabolism and immune function. exposure to the sun lied, exercise, sleep, etc. why do you think there's so much focus on the collective action and so little focused on the individual way of strengthening your immune defenses. thank you for the opportunity to clarify that. what the great barrington declaration says, and certainly when i very strongly posted belief, is that people who are very sick should be given the opportune creased protection that they should, everything should be made as easy as possible for them if they wish to accept that help. but ultimately, people in defeat, she will see with agency free will, and we live, i sincerely hope in a free society,

it should be up to them to take additional personal risks if they wish to do so as through additional information. yes, please put out as much as possible about keeping in good health. that includes talking with people, ie, kids make keeping contact with your friends. it includes sunlight putting kluge, taking for it to mean as well. certainly, i'm taking for it to mean present at perhaps it may not include being in a confined space for weeks and months on and on. and because in my limited knowledge of biology, it tells me that while it may postpone your encounter with called it, it would also put you out of disadvantage when bad encounter actually happens. it's certainly being isolated. it's not good for your mental health, not good for your general physiological status and may make us when you get

infected. there's also they issue of clusium, unity with both the cone of viruses. if you're not saying countering them, it's plausible, it's proven, but it's plausible. you may be more full to soft, cold feet to should you encounter thoughts in the future. so i certainly do not think lockdowns a good for people's health and for people's mental health. is it appropriate to compare it's you essentially taking a shark alone on both personal and public health, you know, trying to minimize the harm today trying to get bites of a at while, minimizing the costs and expand tomorrow. i think that's a very, very fact and it was never part of the old w.h.o. plan. i looked only yesterday at the w. h. shows respect the tree influenza pandemics plan for 2019. that was not a single mention of lockdowns. this has been done to try to minimize deaths in the

shuttle, but the amount of lung damage that is being piled up is stock of that. and i think it's sort of being redefined in terms of what we're trying to do. i mean, initially we were told that the whole purpose of the lowdown is just to slow down. and then he saw that we can provide help, but now it's being proposed as essentially a strategy, not an effort to tie the wand and stop the bloodletting, but rather to an effort to treat the whole thing. and it's a totally, i know you would, i would identify 3 phases in this. the 1st phase was just to flatten the unsold hospitals, told for, well supported doctors, a short term measure. it was just a matter yes. essentially on the arguments that you yourself put forward a few moments ago about shortage of doctors and facilities. then through the summer, when the case dumbass went down, probably just because this is

a seasonal volley this, then they got the notion that this could be suppressed completely through truck and trace. how soon would well, now we've got this further suppression, which is, well, can we keep going until of doxy? and can be fully employed by 2 across populations and fingers crossed. well, speaking of which all the hopes and now pay and on that scene's as something that can hopefully a release us from the state of emergency and certainty. i wonder though, if that's been the they are of a panacea realistically. how a fact of good advice and i'm to viral attacks and be especially in older populations. well, the data that we get healed vaccines so fallen for both and if declared into the end results all more positive than i'd expected that the ficus see all over the pin,

the 90 percent foot at least 3 of them. and possibly the full thing if you look at a subset is really pretty good. now that some short term protection we don't know with will persist, we're not sure how well it will last in the long term. and we're not certain of the risk of the fibrous mutating as it did in the danish mink a few weeks ago. but these are all really fairly positive seeds. and if we can get the bulk of the population, the cad as the doctors, the nurses and so on, vaccinated that it can just diminish the grey scale for the most vulnerable. but it's a further way to sting, but to suit subdue sting 2. so i'm destitute on fox seeds. what would be the best case scenario? however, kerry, in fact, you know how to you guys are or there is an odd ad gropes

every single european for the start of the flu season. is that? is that right? i don't think we know as yet, on the one hand we have the example of the saas outbreak in east asia in 2003. and people have gone back and look at patients who had some was 17 years ago. and they found they still got to t. cells, again, still saw us, which suggests that they still got some immunity. they from the other hand, you look at natural infection by those full old coca-cola. 5 assists the partners, you get a coma virus, your immunity, go, and then the dream dills, a whale for a year or 2, and you might get a 2nd time with the same goal in a 5 s. . so as yet we do not know how well, how long the protection against saws cold feet to is good to last, eat the food, not true infection all through immunize,

as should the good news would be that even if it follows those full old cold fibrosis, the news usually that 2nd attacks, a mild festa talk because that is something you can now let me also ask a couple of questions about the so-called collateral damage. it's obvious that saving lives is an absolute priority for governments. and i think it's obvious that they didn't stop for a 2nd of actually trying to define who and what it means. it's only now that the, c.e.o. all those accumulating consequences that we can start to be talking about big i think the calling gene of saving lives. and my question to you is, what do you think should be the guiding principles as we think about how to structure the response to this pandemic or any other that may come our way? i think we have to do much more about balancing the short term and the long

as you say, the effort has been what you call saving lives. i would say preventing short deaths because very many of those deaths, 50 percent in the u.k., have been in cat hold. it's now when you go into a cat, holme in the u.k., your life expectancy, the afraid is 27 months. and if you look at the median, 50 percent of the people going into a cat hole will be dead within 16 months. so a lot of effort has been protecting those folks who suddenly the end of their lives . and i'm sorry, it's hard to say these days, but all it does, you and me to ultimately old the gods, the death. as you go out into the community, people fighting to go to hospitals. developing countesses hot hot to touch in the

community not sought help when they should have done those deaths. scott said he and into the future in i feel very large numbers who have the collateral damage. the chiefs, a business school, and university of milan today. how to study out which suggested and i will vote for the mathematics, but i think it's a list which if in the united states $169000000000.00 spent, they believed to save about $29000.00 lives. that's 6000000 dollars per life. now that's way way of what he's normally spent saying it comes to treatment in a quality of life assessment. so this, this all has to be right. i agree with the you i think mayor was able to recognize that regardless of the advances in medical science,

neither our governments nor our doctors can defeat nature and death. all will have to die at certain point and we will have will have to accept that. but let me be the devil's advocate for a for a while and use you actually received and microbiology to perhaps help us guide the affix here. isn't it also natural down to when you are presented with a new pandemic with a new path agenda? isn't it a sign, essentially natural, when the government had to prioritize people with that specific condition of our others? i think we will both think green that this is exactly what our governments did. they not just save lives, but they saved lives of trying to save lives of corona, patients at the expense of some other people's lives. and that bill has to be accepted if you want to have a mature conversation. but is that it? isn't that inevitable, or are there ways of avoiding that?

and if you try think that was perhaps in the effort to pull in the spring when sauce cofee to 1st stroke on the was talk that it might help a case fatality rates up at about 2 or 3 percent. so i've no to touch that a vague tional response in the spring to an old 5 start was not noble, but by the sun we had a much clearer understanding of this fibrous, of whom killed and wool. the case fatality rate will wait. these are going to about a quarter percent on these very much concentrated in particular populations. and it's not hold to find examples of countries which have followed polish, says which oh really questionable. take. take india for example, which had a look down at the stone of saul's cold feet of cold feet. they shut down

a lot of businesses in the big cities. people were pushed out of the cities when migrating to close the country back to the whole towns top spreading the fibrous india later on. how to take over wool so far, 140000 deaths. compare that with kilo excess full 100000 deaths. which kilo says a 5th of that in chilled been in india ont patients with kilo that vast, it disrupted by the covert lockdown, which will show that time to play resistance in the us and make it harder to truly couch of productive in a developing country with a younger population which didn't have a vast maske flag cove. well ass as its all indicate the road to hell is often paid by the intentions and including good intentions of the politicians.

have to leave it there. but thank you very much for being with us and sharing your thoughts, my absolute pleasure and joy. and thank you for watching home to syria again next week when worlds apart. all the world is driven by shaped by

the day or thinks we dare to ask them what by wagon that he will ever come to life or yours will pull you out of the gate open ended mountains. and what about and i didn't do, it will always be the good is the house, hold on apache, keep it or don't or don't let it be. come up with you throughout the night, up all on him and i'm having that damn and the money on his i'm not bad with the

internet, but oh november. did i say i have a minute down to like about it, but i have the only thing it is about i don't know much about riots erupted yet again in, over a controversial bill. earlier, during the filming of police officers. also ahead of the protesters are a burden. it's really an american flags and condemnation of the killing of the country's top me for scientists wish to iran was quick to blame all the israel among the stories that shaped this week. us president.