go as far as saying that the current strategy does more harm than good. yes,, i would look at sending people cost. we have the u.k., chancellor of the exchequer today saying that we will have an 11 percent reduction in gross national product close to mystic project. the biggest recession of 300 years that destroys the tax space. it destroys the amount of money that can be spent on future health care. more people are dying at home because their flight to go to hospitals. mental health services are stretched. the london ambulance face say they have a 68 percent increase in turnouts, to suicide's. i could go on an all, but huge damage is done by the policies that have been followed. and i think this is a very important point that the correct collateral damage. as you call it is not only huge. at this point, we haven't even been able to cast

a made to long term consequences to healthy economy. you know, education, hard children, etc. but there is one i think, you know, small improvement is that a like last spring when i governments around the world where essentially coffee coping each other's approach with very little regard for local specifics. i do think that we see a bit more differentiation now out at least among national policies, but at the general logically, the response is still based on trying this to slow it to having to slow down. depend on it. do you think that premise in and of itself is the correct one? it's reasonable to try to slow down the pound demick. it's how much damage, except in the close says, in this sense, all ups in the cone of thought i was switzerland for example,

constant close down. they try to keep things as open as possible and that in switzerland, the virus cases have peaked and now turning downwards. you're seeing the natural fluctuations of a win to the spirits revivalists. and it's a big question, how much of all these quite draconian polis is the debate instituted, doing to change its fluctuations? oh, we're just accruing cost for very little gain against a natural fluctuation. and let's be clear, nobody has made that calculus publicly yet. we are in most of the countries we are sort of forced to accept the wisdom of our authorities with very, very little discussion about the cost of saving lives and you know, whole, what are the lives may be lost? in the meantime, now you've been arguing for a more targeted approach or what you call focus protection. but my question to you

is how focussed out protection could be because at this point, we know pretty well for us are at the highest and at the lowest reasons of it, i can complications. but there's a huge area in between, you know, mania was fall in that gray zone of moderate risk people who will not die from disease, but who may still require a lot of phonetical assistance. what do you think should be done about those people? i think people have to make a personal assessment as you say, of the high risk people, all the elderly. so focused protection should be very much directed towards helping them and then showing that they don't get cold feet, particularly the very elderly in cat homes because that's where the really substantial death of a slice. but yes, of course, the people who for personal reasons all personal health issues, well sign,

those groups and support should be provided. and they would put the support in through china choose. i would put it through local authorities. i would put it through personal physicians. and i do not believe that the state should be the monopoly supplier. i would get the people child with local councils. he told the people who know their local tell the truth, the ground, the people to provide it. and professor, i'm sure you see that there is a difference between for tat, protecting the most vulnerable, and i think that goes without saying you are not advocating for essentially abandoning them. but there is another issue of you know, of the bottlenecks within the medical systems. we all know that in most countries the most pressing issue is not just the number of bags and mailable number of physicians available. and this is a very finite and easily and sauce double resource. and your puns would tell you

that sure. the current strategy is blunt, it's extremely expensive, it's harmful when it comes to the collateral damage, but ultimately it does what it's supposed to do and that is sort of slowing down to tide of new hospitalisations of more direct risk. call that 900 patients who again, are not in direct the risk of dying, but require a lot of medical assistance. they cannot be treated at home. many of them have to be taken to hospitals. try to say, try to prevent as many infections as possible. in those time, i devote this page should say the hospitals in the u.k. overloaded about 10 to 13 percent of hospital beds occupied by cold feet. patients over wall admissions from cold feet are not dramatically above those that you normally get for that at this time of year,

from respect to treat infections. so my view would be that we've imposed these restrictions too. and again, the collateral damage that results is massive. certainly, i'm not all queuing for do nothing, and that's a bit, but my few is very much that we have panicked too soon, and others lead to more damage hauled back to what happened in the spring sweeten. famously did not lock down, and surely that's trajectory of hospitalized patients and deaths was very little different to what happened in the u.k. with the lights locked down well being fronts in space with a much stricter lockdown. so if i understand you correctly, it all shouldn't depend on days, circumstances on the ground, and always stay in each country or any age. graphically kaleta, the situation is different. for example, in russia,

i'm hearing from doctors that unlike during the 1st wave of the diamond crown, most of the people hospitalized for the elderly. now they're overwhelmed with middle aged males who seem to be for some reason more susceptible to these virus than let's say females. and in some regions, a fresh add the hospitals are working at that and i teach you 95 percent capacity. so what is constant that situation? is there any other way apart from streaked, clumsy, low downs to slow the spread and you, after learning what you could do to reste capacity. and you can often in particular, increase intensive care capacity within hospitals. so long as you get the judge decide if you need doctors for that. i mean exactly why be equipment. do you have the funding for that? but you cannot train and nurse or doctor in

a matter of 23 weeks. sure. are there some professionals who are being retrained, but it's a bit again, as i said, it's a very fine to have resource because these people to get exhausted, they get burned out so you can know them indefinitely. rely on them. surely, although i cannot speak for the situation in defeat, the should hospitals, i don't know. all i can say is soon as you can see, which i am familiar with, we have not reached dr. overload point as yet, nor the we being close to it. now, the general advice across the world is that now, did you control the pandemic? what has to keep interpersonal interactions to an minimum? and this is something that i would like to take an issue with because we already know that the spread of this pandemic is not linear. i for one neighbors with the couple at an elderly couple. and in that case, the husband died from the comment,

but his wife, who cared for him in his last days, didn't even get the virus. and there are many examples like this. when you know people seemingly in the same conditions of the same age group of the same house status stepped in differently. don't you think that perhaps we are focusing too much on how this wire is supposedly being passed rather than how it's being received in the body? who gets it into their systems and who doesn't? i would agree with you, certainly in susceptibility to the 5 s. and you just give it, give a take some pull. it might be human genetics that underlies, that's all. there is good evidence that if you've had infection with kogo, viber says, and this full of 5 or 6, which have circulated for many, many years. if you've had an infection with one of those, it make if you some across immunity to sauce cold too. and so you're less

vulnerable to getting it as full disk situations. i think all full about 15 to 30 percent of households. it's a case tend to get infected. a lot of the transmission has been hospitals, health care settings, which i hold to control simply by virtue of the people whom they hog hospitality in. the u.k. has been missing for close down vests to all hotels. and yes, she accounted for only about 3 to 4 percent of total transmission. so try to be pretty blunt tools have been used. now there's a lot of talk right now about testing and tracing when it comes to coronavirus. but i dared to suggest that, you know,

we may also benefit from some sort of biological risk profiles because at this point of time in sort of to see him dead to you and me have the same, not a chance of dying from calling 1000 or acquiring not 1000 complications, but don't you think that we also perhaps need to give people a bit more at well clearly understandable template for how they can make those calculation calculations about their personal risks. because simply being in the one age group or another. dad, i don't think that said what is the biggest single due to going to frisk? i don't think there's much doubt about that. but sex is certainly a fact. obesity is a fact whether for example, you a diabetic say cardiovascular, come to shouldn't. so,

numbers of thoughts to supply a professor livermore, we have to take a short break for the time being, but he will be back in just a few moments. stay tuned. elmwood forward to talking to you all that technology should work for. people must obey the orders given by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the 1st law of the they should or should be very careful about official intelligence to the point. obesity is too great a trust to take on serious chops and with artificial intelligence. will summon, the demon,

must protect its own existence, was the excuse for the yankee hat. and my pappy i was tempted to but it will mark a board if he does much good enough for me. because well, good luck. he would come you can go who would have me to come to that. and he come with us from the museum, went up in the middle of the jobs and old and old as a sort of well, they need to get them involved. not have an army

want to buy a book about when nobody will keep us out of our part of our 11 people to do. and it's a comment about the line. if you're going to make a film of the climax, kaiser, one more of my guide to financial survival, this is on. it's a device used by professional scallywags to earn money. that's right. these hedge funds are simply not accountable to them. totally destabilize the global economy. you need to protect yourself and get in for kaiser.

welcome back to worlds apart with dr. david leader, more processing in medical microbiology at the university of east anglia. professor before the break. we were talking about the need for differentiated protection. and i would like to take an issue with the past if nature off of this protection, because there is an assumption in many societies that the most vulnerable house to be protected by governments which there are. but i think what is being lost in this whole conversation is what people can do individually to improved our own defenses. things like cutting down on shergar which interferes with your cellular

metabolism and immune function. exposure to the sunlight, exercise, sleep, hygiene, etc. why do you think there's so much focus on the collective action and so little focus on the individual way of strengthening your immune defenses. thank you for the opportunity to clarify that. what the great barrington declaration says, and certainly what i very strongly opposed to believe is that people who are they sick should be given the opportunity creased protection that they should, everything should be made as easy as possible for them if they wish to accept that help but ultimately, people in defeat, she will say with agency free will, and we live, i sincerely hope in a free society, it should be up to them to take additional personal risks if they wish to do so

as through additional information. yes, please put out as much as possible about keeping in good health. that includes talking with people e kids make keeping contact with your friends. it includes sunlight putting kluge, taking for it to mean as well. certainly, i'm taking for it to mean perhaps it may not include being in a confined space for weeks and months on and on and because of my limited knowledge of biology, it tells me that while it may postpone your encounter with call it, it would also put you at a disadvantage when that encounter actually happens. it's certainly being isolated. it's not good for your mental health, not good for your general physiological status and may make you ask when you get infected. this is all so they issue of clusium unity with both the cone of viruses

. if you're not saying countering them, it's plausible, it's proven, but it's plausible. you may be more full to soft coal, free to shit you encounter without it in the future. so i certainly do not think lockdowns a good for people's health and for people's mental health. is it appropriate to compare it's you essentially taking a shark alone on both personal and public health, you know, trying to minimize the harm today trying to get a bite of a at while minimizing the costs and expenses tomorrow. i think that's a very, very fact paris and what doesn't. and it was never posed at the old w.h.o. plan. i looked only yesterday at the w. h shows respect the tree influenza pandemics plan for 2019. that was not a single mention of lockdowns. this has been done to try to minimize deaths in the

shuttle, but the amount of lung damage that is being piled up is stuck. and i think the, it's sort of being redefined in terms of what we're trying to do. i mean, initially we were told that the whole purpose of the lowdown is just to slow down the mix so that we can provide help. but now it's being proposed as essentially a strategy, not an effort to tie. they want to stop the bloodletting, but rather to an effort to treat the whole thing and it's a totally, i know you would, i would identify 3 phases in this. the 1st phase was just to flatten the unsold hospitals we're told for, well supported doctors are short. it was just a matter of yes, essentially on the arguments that you yourself put forward a few moments ago about shortage of doctors and facilities. then through the summer, when the case dumbass went down, probably just because this is a seasonal vine leaves us,

then they got the notion that this could be suppressed completely through truck and trace. how soon would well, now we've got this food, the suppression, which is, well, can we keep going until a vaccine can be fully played by 2 across populations and fingers crossed it? well, speaking of which all the hopes and now pay and on that scene's s., something that can hopefully a release us from this state of emergency and uncertainty. i wonder though, if it's been the allure of a panacea, realistically,, how a fact of good advice and b., and i'm to viral facts and be especially in older populations. well, the data that we get healed vaccines so fallen for both and if declared in his soul, it's a more positive than i'd expected that the ficus see all over the pin, the 90 percent for at least 3 of them and possibly the full fee. if you look at

a subset is really pretty good now, so that's some short term protection we don't know with the will persist. we're not sure how well it will last in the long term. and we're not certain of the risk of the fibrous, mutating as it did in the danish minke a few weeks ago. but these are all really fairly positive data seeds. and if we can get the bulk of the population, the cab as the doctors, the nurses and so on, vaccinated that it can just diminish the base for the most vulnerable, but it's a further way to besting. but to, to subdue sting, destitute on fox seeds. what would be the best case scenario? however, the area in fact, we will have human eyes are or there is an odd ad gross error rate for the start of the flu season. is that? is that right?

i don't think we know as yet, on the one hand we have the example of the saas outbreak in east asia in 2003. and people have gone back and look at patients who had some was 17 years ago. and they found that they still got to t. cells against saws, which suggests that they still got some immunity. they from the other hand, you look at natural infection by those full old coca-cola. 5 assists. the partners you get a coma fibrous your immunity goes up and then it drained away over a year or 2. and you might get a 2nd, a time with the same component, 5 us. so as yet we do not know how well, how long the protection against soft cold feet too is going to last, eat the food naturally, infection all through immunized, as should the good news would be that even if it follows those full old cold of 5

misses the top news usually that 2nd attacks, a mild fest talk because that is so mean you can now let me also ask you a couple of questions about the so-called collateral damage. it's obvious that saving lives is an absolute priority for governments. and i think it's obvious that they didn't stop for a 2nd of actually trying to define who and what it means. it's only now that the, c.e.o. all those accumulating consequences that we can start to be talking about big i think the it call it gene of saving lives. and my question to you is, what do you think should be the guiding principles as we think about how to structure the response to this pandemic or any other that may come our way? i think we have to do much more about balancing the short term and the long

as you say, the effort has been what you call saving lives. i would say preventing short deaths because very many of those deaths, 50 percent in the u.k., have been in hold. now when you go into a cat, holme in the u.k., your life expectancy of the free chip is 27 months. and if you look at the media, 50 percent of the people going into a cat home will be dead within 16 months. so a lot of effort has been protecting those folks who suddenly the end of their lives . and i'm somebody, it's hard to say these days, but all if is you and me to ultimately old the gods, the death. i should go out into the community 8 people fighting to go to hospitals . developing countesses had hot to touch in the community not sought help when they

should have done this death. scott said he and into the future in i feel a very large numbers who have the collateral damage. d h, e. c. business school and university of milan today. how to study out which suggested and i won't vote for the mathematics, but i think it's illustrate if in the united states $169000000000.00 spent, they believed to save about $29000.00 lives. that's 6 $1000000.00 a life. now that's way way of what he's normally spent say in a cancer treatment in a quality of life assessment. so this, this all has to be right. i did, and you are i think many of us fail to recognize that regardless of the advances in medical science, neither our governments nor our doctors can defeat nature,

death. all will have to die at certain point and we will have will have to accept that. but let me be the devil's advocate for a for a while and use us interests in microbiology to perhaps help us guide the affix here. isn't it also natural down to when you are presented with a new pandemic with a new path agenda? isn't it a sign, essentially natural for the government to prioritize people with that specific condition over others? i think we will both agree that this is exactly what our governments did. they not just saved lives, but they saved lives of trying to save lives of her own the patients at the expense of some other people's lives. and that bill has to be accept if you want to have a mature conversation. but is that it isn't that inevitable? or are there ways of avoiding that and if you try think that was perhaps in the

effort to pull in the spring when sauce cofee to 1st stroke on the west talk that it might help a case fatality rates put about 2 or 3 percent. so i've no to touch that the vegetable response in the spring to a 5 star was not in the ball, but by the sun. we had a much clearer understanding of this fibrous, of who killed the case, fatality rate will be $18.00. these are going to about a quarter percent, and these very much could snatch a change in particular populations. and it's not hard to find examples of countries which have followed polis says, which, oh, really question. able to take india for example, which, how to look down at the still of saul's cofee, of cold feet. they shut down

a lot of businesses in the big cities. people were pushed out of the cities when migrating to close the country back to the whole towns top spreading the fibrous india later. how to take over wool. so full 140000 deaths. compare that with full 100000 deaths. which kilo sis a 5th of that in chilled to in india ont patients with kilo says that 1st it disrupted by the covert lockdown, which will soon have time to resistance in the tuberculosis and make it harder to try to be counterproductive in a developing country with a younger population which didn't have a vast misc, filed coping well as all indicate the road to hell is often paid by politicians. professor,

we have to leave it there. but thank you very much for being with us and sharing your thoughts. my absolute pleasure and joy and thank you for watching home to syria again next week. hold a part of the foreign policy team of a potential buy in ministration is being touted by the liberal media. we tell you why all this should be horrified. also, there's a lot of talk of a great recession and build back better looking back for bode well for the future.

join me and i'm sure i'll see you then what about the riots are up in paris over a controversial bill aimed at the filming of police officers. protesters in iran, burning israeli, and american flags over the killing of the country's top nuclear scientist is to blame on israel among the stories the u.s. president elect joe biden time his cabinet with sparking concern over washington's and.