the strap is that big giant story overarching all economic stories china it's overtake us as the world's biggest economy by 2028 report predicts center for economics and business research says it expects this to happen half a decade sooner than it forecast of a year ago douglas mccloy the c e b r is deputy chairman said the big news in this forecast is the speed of growth of the chinese economy we expected to become an upper income economy during the current 5 year plan period which is 2020 to 2025 and we expect it to overtake the us a full 5 years earlier than we did a year ago so everyone's purchasing power goes down and fair money but less so for the chinese economy so in 2021 all the fia money starts to fall against commodities against gold number $1.00 against because. but in china the rate at which the purchasing power will be road will be less than anybody else and

so their economy in comparison will be growing and this will be a hard pill for the u.s. and other countries to swallow but they are the victims of their own ridiculous policies that exported all the jobs to china and now the world wind will be reaped yeah most empires do and this way as we have discussed many times in the past 10 years the united states is no different apparently and they've willingly sent all their manufacturing capacity and wealth creation capacity therefore to china china share of global g.d.p. has increased from 3.6 percent in 2000 to 17.8 percent and 2019 and will continue to grow the c e b r said it would pass the per capita threshold of $12536.00 to become a high income country by 2023 no of course that it was in 2000 and that's when you know the democrats. pushed including joe biden had pushed for china to join the w.

they formally became a member i think it was like just after $911.20 so they were only 3.6 percent of global g.d.p. you know 20 years later they're 17.8 percent or 17.9 percent of g.d.p. so they're booming and you know in a way so like we had said at the end of the year of 2020 is that joe biden his son i guess has very close relationships with the communist party in china so that might reduce the tensions of a city the strap you know as a rising power displaces an old power it tends to be very violent and conflict ridden something like 16 out of the last 18 situations like this have been marked by global violence so with hunter biden in you know his dad in the white house might be better but you know this is this is these are just the data points and

partly as we said it was obvious that china's many faction capacity is 100 percent to normal like after the penn demick it's been back to normal since like april or may and the rest of the world is struggling to contain this fire is so it is kind of a post world war 2 sort of situation as as we've said before brains like they're the only economy standing yeah for the global pandemic some want to america after world war 2 you know we've been saying for years now the reason why americans have been oblivious to this is because although their jobs have been exported to china the prices of stuff that they're buying they're wal-mart's in the big box stores have been falling more rapidly than their wages so they have the illusion of actually having the same or improve living standards because the price of clothes and electronics and things like that were quite extraordinarily cheap but that pendulum is about to swing in the other direction now as all the dynamics that made that possible reverse. and suddenly the purchasing power of the dollar relative to

other currencies will lose rapidly and america is going to have that definitely a downgrade in living standards that i don't think anyone is preparing them for of course another problem fair. the imperial citizens of america is that our media so our media hyper propagandizes us and fills us with fear and hate for each other but people outside the world so they leave you stupid and this is an example there's this guy call. he himself is targeted as some like his twitter handle is called by american media that he's like some sort of agent of the chinese state because he's chinese and i think he lives in america but he travels all over the world and anyway he posted this tweet that you know if you had listened to alternative voices and said or just listening to c.n.n. what the understanding you might have had a long time ago so here he says how it started and that's a c.n.n.

headline from a 2017 china's metro station in the middle of nowhere ha. what imbeciles these people are and then how it's going well that's today and there's a huge city around that station you know as the previous article pointed out they have 5 year plans right so this is how they do it they build the infrastructure 1st the metro lines the train lines and then they build the city around. because this is are a great technology right like a lot of our cities in europe or like manhattan are built around ports and when everything was shipped and you know and cities were built on rivers because everybody traveled by boat now we chattel in a different way so they build they build like the equivalent of a river from a couple 100 years ago and then build the city around it so it makes sense yeah i

think the problem with the media also if you look at these league tables that track in various countries indices crew for wealth and health care and education you'll find that america's average education. quotient if you will has been dropping pretty precipitously for a couple of decades now and that certainly is reflected in the media so when you see a story like that and the average american media consumer doesn't understand that it infrastructure build of a subway stop would be the 1st step toward building a city and that context is not provided in this just seen as a cartoon that should be left out without any context. it's sad really because to get the education standards back up in the u.s. would require a lot of money that now the u.s. won't have particularly since the dollars on the verge now of collapsing ok hollywood is one of the biggest industries in america own most all stories. for any

drama go back to aristotle since the days of aristotle we know that when you behave like that when you speak like that with hubris that is the beginning of your downfall it's always like we've known this for several 1000 years like now is never different this time so as soon as you start mocking your competitor for how backward or poor or whatever they are like you know they're sure they're like ok you just ignore us we're just here making our dumb little subway station out in the middle of nowhere so i just think it's like you know they you know the c.n.n. guys got to sneer and think that they were better than everybody else and that meat maybe made them feel better when they you know went out for their cocktails that evening in manhattan and giggled with their co hoarse from m s n b c but at the end of the day i think you know like once those elites crumble that better the ordinary americans will will live so much better if europe is any guide

the ordinary european lives we better now than they did when their countries were empires right in the story they are describing there would be great for the chinese equivalent of hollywood to make a feature film about the us and its crumbling empire in the early 21st century and that film will make it to the us some day and they'll be english subtitles or dubbed in being galician americans will be watching this but paying through the nose for the app that will now be own by china and the other thing that's interesting is partly you know china's fault they're not transparent like western economies are they don't give a whole bunch of details about what's actually going on but you want to have like some brains to be able to look at the actual data and you can't fake commodities right you can't just have like you can't pretend it's all fine if there's a shortage of stuff right well goldman sachs says curry predicts a long lasting bull market for virtually all commodities the world is entering

a lot. bull market for commodities that even oil set to benefit as recent under investment dollar weakness government spending and the energy transition boost demand across the board goldman sachs's global head of commodities research geoffrey curry said so he says that every single commodity market with the exception of wheat isn't deficit today and highlighted the example oil saying capital expenditure and oil sector and fall in an unprecedented 40 percent and the 1st half of the year he argued that even oil demand would be boosted by spending on the energy transition to a green energy grid this is why having the world reserve currency of the u.s. dollar and the executive privilege that comes with it goes reverse like because all commodities are priced in dollars that's one of the one of the outcomes of world war 2 was the u.s. dollar standard in all commodities priced in dollars and now that the dollar purchasing power will be shrinking the u.s. purchasing of the commodities will be higher than anyone else in the world and that

will work to the detriment of the u.s. economy going forward and it is a secular bull market in commodities we're getting ready to embark on and it is largely due to the fall of the u.s. dollar because all commodities are priced in dollars so all those economies that are able to hedge against the dollar are going to be in a lot better off in the u.s. that's based on the dollar it and again it goes back to that profound hubris on your mean stream media source of news content that are supposed to explain the world to you where you will see like china's lying about their covert numbers you know it can't be real they must be as much of a disaster as us and yet the data shows like. somebody is using those commodities like theirs and they're building an alright so on and so on he was the greatest year ever for a bit going well be back after this. newsletter

post the delusional. but if you have australian. people. who are. used to dumb shit on the net you. could go to look to. the needs of those but it seems to me. you need to go to church for this new look. that i don't hear pretty chilled or if there will be a choice to be on your boat it will show you so much to be able to. talk a little girl out of this group through. who are full attention you. point of their beautiful and hear them. are going.

to put so that you put in the. block. for. gas to change. i just stuck i don't need to just what. i do you will know when you are going in the store usually does.

so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have it's crazy for him to let it be an arms race in his own sparing dramatic development only mostly i'm going to resist i don't see how that strategy will be successful very critical time to sit down and talk. welcome back to the kaiser report imax keyser time now to get to professor steve came steve kane welcome back to the kaiser report good to be him actually going to

be out of the 202120 as well thank god 2020 is now well speaking of 2020 steve came what what happened what were the big stories in your view of 20000 economically speaking well i mean obviously covers the biggest story of the year 11 changed to have my check on it is that the big story is how badly the so-called liberal economies of cope with that and how well the so-called authoritarian ones have so you particularly have china which is where this thing began has huge news a potties on 2021 cause they have got rid of a 1000090000 cases america. 20000000 cases so it's it's divided the world into 2 very fragmented bits and that's i think the news to some charm there's a segment of the world on that about shaun of the disco good for in this segment i want to buy america which is coded infested and we'll see long term consequences of

that i think my eyes made a world war 2 you know america entered world war 2 uniquely positioned to be the winner of world war 2 and sure enough they won and that became the american century as a result because all the other economies in the world are in ruins here cove it just so happens that china was uniquely positioned to deal well with this type of global pandemic they've emerged as the now will probably going to lead the 21st century and those countries like the u.s. and britain and others they just were not prepared for something like this they didn't they decided not to prepare and let's move on so the dollar of the u.s. dollar turns 50 this year the i.m.f. has just called for a new threat in the woods now a year ago mark carney while head of the bank of england said the u.s. dollar was no longer fit to. serve as a reserve currency so now we're going to start see the dollar 50 year anniversary start to go the way of every single money in history and that is desirable no it's not it's not going to 0 as if it counts emacs is going to serve the international

currency and it should always have been as 0 hour is the international currency that was probably the biggest egotistically driven tactical mistake in maybe in america's history has had a few but to rule of rule kinds of to have the american dollar used for international currency rob of the kinds of solid euro created currency cold bankole which old countries would have needed to borrow for international tried that would have meant you could head to the kid is still vibrant american manufacturing sector you wouldn't have had the massive imbalances you would have the mess of growth in the power of the financial sector. so it's not listened to be if they had currency it'll still be that little something in a stretch for you in currency pretending to be an international one i don't think is going to happen this year it might happen in 10 the a damn good thing when it's a house but there will still be the fear of currency of america it bring up a good point there so the dollar became world reserve cards say during really the

1st bretton woods keynes argued for the bank or what's been basically a global settlement current say to work and this new brand the woods it seems like they're want to bring back the equivalent of the bank or they want to bring back maybe a global digital central bank digital currency to act as the bank or so are they going to think that's what the game plan will be the be like you know what lord keynes was right let's go back and do the global settlement layer i'm in i know the chinese over the previous chinese governor of the central bank had read kinds on that from and sun side of the proposal so yes i think that there would be out there saying around the table but that those who know the history knows what they're doing and a similar sort of idea kinds one of the number of banks or to shoot it. on the basis of the size of countries jay pays and that's the same idea if you have a boss to have parents use backing up it's almost equivalent so they're the same idea so the question is whether understand how they need to increase it if it's on

a go to feeling some new york russell economist they will manage to stuff it up but it is fundamentally a good idea write another keynesian idea would be that when the economy is slowing down you can go into debt and then when the economy is picking up again you you pay down the debt but what we've seen over the past few decades as if the economy's slowing down to go into debt its economy speeding up to go into more debt said never been any less debt what's the global picture on debt steve this is like one of your specialties i thought last night the global debt is over 300 percent debt to g.d.p. my numbers are not going to be as accurate as your numbers what is the global debt situation right now steve the thing we have to do in this is this is essential as with most modern monkey theory is around is the is there is a fundamental difference between profit and government it in profit it profit non-bank owes money to a private bank in the government's costs the government owes money to the government. and you don't have the same limitations in paying back your bank if you

happen to own it so that is the fundamental underlying piece of why you've got to separate the 2 the real dangerous level of profitability of souls good and fair like condie of an aggregate figure for a lot i could do with a few minutes notice that not a lot of the an american situation with best want to talk about and that started 46 descent of g.d.p. after the 2nd world war rose to 170 percent at the peak of the financial process and this fall into 150 percent was fluttering along at that level which is 3 times the level that enabled you're sure you have the golden age of capitalism and that's the the anchor that's the china. around the ankles of the global economy too much profit so. my hope is we might get some sort of movement to wipe out that profit it using the government's capacity to create money what i call

a modern ditch i would never for the have a hope in hell of happening but off the code maybe some things will be on that cycle but that's the real danger so much profit that frightens it that it doesn't want to spend because it's got too much to to service slow circulation of money and sluggish economy is right now the team difference private debt public debt but when you see a lot of private debt let's say in the banking sector and then they go bust and then the government bails them out without any conditions an unconditional bailout as they say now then when banks make mistakes like on wall street and they get caught doing illegal things then they'll have to pay a few pennies on the dollar and fines the money that they stole right is there any real difference between private and public debt because it all ends up being bailed out by the government anyway it's all public desa that's a very good very cynical very good point the cynicism is well justified because

that that shouldn't happen what happens when it went to a bank fails as it should be gets deposited should decide which is the whole idea of deposit insurance but the assholes get wiped out and as i'm out good might model hazen's put it in the government's bio will straight rather than the main street it's kept the parasite a lot rather than the house so there's lots of very bad behavior in that sense and it shouldn't be because the at the end of the law delivery should be carried by the stites so the people don't lose their deposit accounts but the asset whole should go bust so you end up now with a global debt situation internet samp to re-impose some kind of equilibrium around the world a word i know you have a lot to say about the word equilibrium i do indeed might let me let me just use it in this context there is some kind of equilibrium matching. debts with presumably they'll look at something like gold reserve to see if pick which country has gold that they can back up this new brewery chris thing of the global

economy and. is that would it work you don't need go the the the main debts that are problematic countries like argentina that 00 american dollars they're the ones they got their own problems with most countries in the world did in their own currency so it's not that sort of that's not the one that's that's that's not the ag the thing that's holding us back it's the private debt and frankly i'd like to see what we call government dating grace to be able to reduce the level of private debt and take away the amount of created by the money and have more see it post money in the economy our problems are come from letting the private banks create too much money so ponzi schemes which is what they've been doing for the last 30 years and what the central banks have been doing is buying the mouth of those on the stands and that with the behavior right from the days of greenspan and the greenspan back and i 87 so there's a lot wrong with the system but let's stop harassing on where we went wrong and that's mainstream economists on understanding profit that are right any mess in

argentina there of course they issued a 100 year bond that's just a couple of years ago immediately dropped 4050 percent and 3 they seem to be a recidivist defaulter on their debt it's a must do or a good it's expected that argentina fault every couple of years on their debt and you mentioned that of course i've got u.s. dollar based debt which is a trick we saw during the mexican peso crisis back you know while back how do these countries weren't why they issued debt in dollars anyway why do they do that well many because people want to set their own currency match something would you accept or you would you buy a turkish bonds right now you know right i mean if they do want into the dollar base that it's going to drop 50 or 60 percent anyway and net net. i'm in the same place i started. because what they aren't see it is fear out money is it you seem to be somewhat of a positive and constructive on the idea that

a fee out money standard can work on some basis is that correct yeah i mean it's a capacity to have the evidence less take money supply which can help the things i'd like funding innovation if you go to save up pennies to pay for innovations often they won't happen banks don't do a perfect job by any by incredible stretch of imagination. that capacity to have a lasting financial system is possible if you haven't caught railway booms in that booms and so on they can be a catastrophe in the slump that follows them but they leave a huge amount of physical infrastructure behind that we all need a benefit from so it's not a straight forward story all right let's move on change gears here you're based in thailand you're working on a plan to address climate as is we've got about a minute and a half tell us more about this dave sounds exciting well having looked at what the economists have done on. trusting it's too little too light cotton processing won't work so much suggestion is common rationing instead the auditor is central banks

rather than issuing money is digital currency would issue universal koppen credits as a supplementary currency everything would be processed in both dollars and you say ses you and i would get you know we don't get the average for the country and that was only 2 percent of the population would actually be using more than the average going to whistle koppen credit so that 2 percent would run out of they use a ses pretty rapidly and have to buy them off the 98 percent of us who don't run out of them it would be a strong way of reducing the level of carbon generation it putting credible incentives to go dickov an autistic nobody bought the wealthy and it would reduce tribute wealth and income from the wealthy to the pool so it's what i'd call a robin hood currency and therefore has buckley shots of actually happening is there a comparison to be made between rationing carbon credits and rationing fee out money . no the rest since you won't be you don't you will you know how much we got

a global car a common budget we know what that is we count we if we exceeded catastrophe follows that's very different to what they a concert which is the last 2nd robbery in costa chesterfield but not it doesn't wipe out planetary systems where doing with comp and ok steve k. thanks so much thanks for bring on kaiser report thank you indeed max and that's going to do it for this edition of kaiser report with me max as i'd like to thank our guest if came now you can find steve keen on page 3 on dot com forward slash prof steve came the next time. the world is driven by dream shaped.

thinks. we can ask. i got this 8 millimeter film purely by accident. time period 963 to 65 place damascus. old old dump of new york girl why young. i've watched it many times a man posing in monuments and all poster of the hollywood premiere of town without

pity and a fight in a minute so without bruises. i had my doubts if i should waste my time on this but i came back to that film over and over again tracing a sequence of events happening in syria at that time anderson those who worked there a moment on the settlement in the kremlin you know which was sitting you know neal curiosity is like a petrol motion machine it lives on without a lunch break and then suddenly i saw him stop let's take another look now at low speed this is key like cohen a super spy who some consider a national hero and others and evil villain an israeli double o. 7. i need because it's bud some and they at the show the other me get at the on shore steal.

if. changed american lives but pharmaceutical companies have a miraculous solution. based drugs the people who are chronic pain and believe that their opiate prescription is working for them in the remedy be certain to. price at the. close or dependency in addiction to opiates to long term use that really isn't . scientifically justified by now study actually suggest that. the long term effects my not just the absence of benefit but actually that might be causing long term.

for people are dead after trump supporters stormed the capitol building in washington d.c. with reactions to wednesday's events from the president and his son excess are clearly reflecting the deep divisions. in the us. don't dare call them protest they were a riot a small. terror.