long welcome to celtic of visionaries me sophie shevardnadze could 900 condemn a came as an external shock is unprecedented how can we navigate then certainty of the post pandemic future to discuss this i'm joined by the author of the bestselling books the black swan antifragile and skin in the game that i've been dreaming to talk to you for the past 3 months to a risk analyst nassim nicholas taleb. yes i'm nicholas taleb risk analyst author of thought best selling books black swan and 2 for a child skin in the game so great to have you with us it's been 3 months i'm dreaming of talking to you and asking you all these questions so the day has come

hi. thank you. really really honor the restriction to. write so nicholas at the synergy online forum you've talked about making societies more resilience to the future challenges without trying to protect them exactly but making sure we'll be ready for the unexpected i mean do you expect the call that crisis to be teaching us anything in that regard that's not there but there's 2 subtle things i have to say the 1st one is that you don't have to be paranoid in general but low things have to be paranoid about small number. and the main one is. the bricks and that makes all the people just worry about little war. or war or. no the big think biggest threat. has been that it will be. ok and and and because of the structure

of modern society germs can travel much faster so something i was saying of the century scribing the difference in structure between today and the past is you know the silk road 'd is very interesting and brought a lot of merchandise but guess what came with the merchandise on both sides terms ok but there were traveling the germs were traveling so 1st of all as a show and i was actually got 1st globalization from we've had merchandise moving without anybody on sally how ok from town to town to research all and byron back and force and horses traveling for you know some drama days anyway but the let's say it's mobilization you get terms of it. but at the time. it took a long time you know it took a long time to in fact they did. train in northern europe and was that now the middle east took

a locked up for the people to be in fact that today you can set up a conference and pick your town really see one of my favorite cities conference there 30000 specialists i don't know what say the. lungs are it or something more boring say of liver liver specialist come in from all around the world so people come from atlanta stand and tina cincinnati they go they mingle and guess what they go back home for this later and 2 weeks later the start to spread their own to become super says super spreader that's we have many more support for that today so. the good news is that now we understand the problem. and the pend the meek we had was not very severe it was a small thing is here could have been a lot worse but it was not it was you know small thing it was not some small but

i'm saying you can bet a lot worse could have been like something of the order of smallpox or. something similar or some other bacteria that's antibiotic resistant so we have now we live we have an awareness of it and the idea of any official theory is that every time a plane crashes the next plane ride you know when you say for the sea the system learns from stakes and improves based on mistakes that is a good system so the world will be different wiser and then people now but hopefully it's good for peace because people understand the moral that the enemy is not some person with weapons the enemy of the thing you don't see. the little jerk . pencil testing enemy not you know. all these the military threats are

a say because the world this replaced and that now people are aware of it but will they really be smarter you think because like i'm looking back at sars outbreak and had we paid more attention to it and gotten the back scene back then and being so much easier to get the vaccine done for calling 1000 now it seems like we don't really learn that much from our mistakes do you really think it's going to the vaccines are not the solution by the way this quarter connectivity is a solution because we're still waiting for an issue of effects here so whatever whenever you discuss medical improvements. these take time take a lot of time. as our president can happen an unpredictable pace so if i say that the 188 start but 35 years 40 years ago ok. treatments maybe no back seat so you can have more steady improvement and treatments we may have a back some extreme tomorrow is like winning

a lot lotto and investment and even then it seems may prove to be short term effect effects are a sure you know not long term effect because of as a as you know you know things you state so i think a more robust world would be one in which we do business as usual but guess what be prepared for hard times current prize are a lot cheaper to reduce mobility of the germs it's a lot cheaper than having luck that. we spent trillions from you know lockdowns is vastly cheaper and so have some measures. so that when you talk about be prepared for current times and that will take care of everything in terms of connor to being the danger to the ok i get that but is this like a temporary saying or should we stay in this sort of current time not forever can we ever somehow go back to the simplest weren't fast travel hassle free boarders

all that stuff you know you will have free mourners everything so long as people are prepared this there is an eruption of something like and i mean to ask border control to reduce connectivity because the jurors don't travel by phone they will try a long zoom they travel you see on air france and the aeroflot and on carriers so you want to use that and then and let me tell you again let's say something out saying that senator kerry as you look at history and the. black death the plague took place and the search and hundreds. still have corn ties and $850.00 and every ship at i'm talking about the psyche of the people that were prepared for it now sometimes maybe they're lax about not using the lesser it was worth it the people for actually 40 days of potatoes before releasing them but they had a system in place for 500 years. don't stop

you cannot go and i was saying you cannot go from me a plant buyer into the house bird with according to. whether or not there was a pandemic they had the system now i'm not asking to i want that all the time but to have a plan in place to inforce 3 levels check passengers. test by sensors or contact passengers it's a level 123 and still 00 most of the dive in till you have information and then you can act if you acted that way out of want we would have the problem. oh it so here's the thing like in the beginning of the demick when it all started and we understood that it was global and he was irreversible everyone hysterically started remembering the notion of the black swan. and then it sort of got you

knowing and you were saying this is really not a black swan it's a white swan and then just the latest century a read of yours in international business times you're saying yeah actually it couldn't be a black swan is it is it because the pandemic itself the virus is self is not the black swan but the black swan is the handling of the aftermath there is a saying no no one has said this is a story so it will oh that's a people. handling it. my black swan i said it's not the disease but the eros the lack of logical behavior on our people. do not say no i did not or they saw let me tell you why it's not a black swan a black swan to something you don't see coming something that they have movies about how could it be a black swan. so they had movies about those in the black swan discuss going through the day and i say whoa because of the structure of the world. expect to

have maybe sure but that makes but deep are the ones that have to be deeper. and let's not trust medical knowledge too much because. it has improved for a lot of diseases but the diseases are smaller than most ok but whatever is happening now or not now that the disease is sort of. going backwards but we're left with economic consequences with fractured societies with minorities rebelling all over the world with with all the consequences that we have on our hands what i think you know is going to happen is a transformation of economic structures to accommodate. potential pandemics even never happen again people do prepare for them like for example in the united states we have a migration out of new york city where you have a super spreaders i mean his subway so even if we control this one and it's

gone and you have to worry and goodbye even if you control this one there will be. paranoia about what could happen next so so we have a some people living in new york plus there's another thing there is a structural permanent transformation in the way things are happening with academia and with offices that for the same reason we're talking on zone on the new studio now and seems to work ok it's a salute dating thing that would have happened in the physical world we are learning to do things offline and these things are taken place you know in a remote. enough light that i meant remote they think of taking place remotes are causing a gross of economic activity in some sectors so and so i think one of the transformation is a duchess and russia or country houses here are in demand people want to move there

ok because you can do remote from there and once in a while go to the city as same time. real estate is going to be depressed cities. all my shopping people learn to do online shopping it's not as entertaining as going to the mall but you know having a house which means that malls are going to suffer big time everywhere. but also if you live in a remote place it's good news for you because you may find an employer who's come to. they say for example now there's a crisis of love and all and people want to emigrate you know stay there or try to be hired remote somewhere it's much easier you don't have a visa problem so it creates you know. like people can travel without a visa holder a lot of the things like this always have been some other distrust formation coming out of this coupled with some bad news for some industries.

businesses and of course to me it's a bad news for for all this political. geo political discourse because the enemy isn't just some foreign country anywhere the enemy is a german now and we all face and same for let's hope so let's hope so that let's hope that we'll actually learn something or really draw a lesson out of it ok it doesn't take a short break right now when we're back we'll continue talking to the author of best selling books the black swan antifragile skin a game risk analyst nassim nicholas taleb don't go away.

used to be the. change.

and we're back with author of best selling books the blacks wanting to fragile skin in the game a risk analyst nassim nicholas taleb nicholas anti fragility is achieved by decentralization you say propping up the capitalism local governments print accused monopolies from forming strengthening links in the chain so that your servants or fall is not a problem for the future do you see anyone in the world now going down that road i

mean is anyone actually doing that definitely yes so let me explain what has happened if you see the reaction to the virus the lower the units in the scale the more responsible it's like the city of atlanta also met it masks much smarter than the state of georgia. so if you look at 1030 that far better the central government so what happened at the bottom up process works fine for the and the mic because in their own the sauce or you know after the less you have the right. downs were closing by themselves the minute there was a stretch so those those who are paranoid enough to close early or escape will select this and the other subsequent diseases that they had that came later you know them shut down the town you can't go into go go up or you can go out you can't go back and so so my idea is the higher you go in the organization the worst so what is on top the most incompetent organization in history is

a world health organization the most incompetent agree they could not understand masks that masks are symmetric like if i were a mask they said well there's no evidence this is cool naive evidence of them was it and i will publish some scientific papers explaining they don't send the military they use is mathematics that 100 years old read the notes and their scientific understanding isn't science they say there's no evidence massport. there's is there evidence they don't work there's no evidence that i'm going to have a car accident today should i not wear seat belts they don't understand so the idea that. it's not so the that the higher up people should be more competent as busts the higher up the more incompetent c.c. was incompetent and united states the center for disease control same thing they had the same attitude towards masks where we were barking and january to say ok

this is serious the world has a reservation or say or there's no evidence that this disease or you know can trust meant for human to human. this is lunacy or generally $26.00 so there is a world health organization lead to a lot of problems ok and problem except waited so if we didn't have it would be better off you say and. so so so i like bottom up structures are i'm a localist so subsidiarity in other words if you cannot do it at the local level maybe you go up ok and for things like a military for things like the pows ok that's fine you don't at the top level the kind of diplomacy or the village level for things like water recently and basic safety like. leave it to the town some towns in italy decided to close to strangers others were open to let them compete who's going to do better and you

know facing the class of the realm of that's so this is leading people to understand locals so where is your smell in terms of. a regionalised economy because a lot of great minds and economy that have space spoken to different different countries they're saying you know we're going from global to regional economy to let me think we're all in the same nobody wants to go to authority where you just you know you're got to sit on the street and do it while so you know i have a feeling of control over them so it's somewhere in between so i think that the fight is between those who want say 70 percent or 75 percent say so because even if the chinese make something a lot cheaper and it's no threat to you let's say ok then then start pharmaceutical ok that's fine or they can make has a from a sort of call that we use yes but you cannot have

a control 100 percent circle you don't enter the when there is destruction then you're cut off from the source and so for vital sayings maybe we'll have a we're going to world where you don't have the vital things are must be produced locally here within an area that is a racial. and non vital things who cares they say this glass of water and they can make it and whatever they want they can make it on the moon they want that's fine it's a discussion that's fine i can live without the glass right but farm i know so and then there are some items and i think countries what i think. will happen is countries will say ok we need to have stock on this this this and that or make sure it's produced locally and the rest will so impact on the general economy is going to be. not big and summit because i really don't think anybody wants are saying you

don't believe in his like big slowdown in globalization you think you think things have a nicer not more going there was a sion and be more guarded in other words when i say like nobody's nation and the economic boost we got was that it's partially or maybe totally or whatever it is definitely had a role in pulling a 1000000000 people out of poverty we didn't want a 1000000000 people out of poverty by sending them. kids who study apartments and she knows you know no that's not how it works or it and they're messing up their place no we still got them out of poverty that's for us asian ok by having gross and one area lead to growth in another area we had that so the saying is we don't want to mess it up we want to protect it but on the other hand the enemy when he has a say listen to any surprise they should say hey what's your problem they say well . the china makes. 95 percent of the vital drugs

ok that's fine now through some here it's not big deal non-vital drugs like if you want. some kind of weather that's fine to make it but so what i'm saying is that if you have to make a list of things that the government will insist will not be localized the list will not be mostly l'arche. and then also oh the supply chains who are the dynamic handled them rather well i mean it's not a big deal. what i think is happening now that would be a big transformation is a physical movement of population like me traveling to won't be reduced and the business traveler while will not be there won't be you know as active as we saw in the past because they feel his life is over and we're now you know understood that we could work with zoom and who wants to spend 3 hours in traffic area day. but you still have a business travel but for me to go to you know i don't mind doing so or georgia or

school say once a year and i mean. going to have my and my amenities and all these i love the feel of i don't want to go in once a year but but and then spending more time there and stuff but traveling you know back i'm forced because there's a conference or something i will not have anymore or to use myself by travel zouk will not be able to replace everything you still need people face to face ok yeah you got i don't think that it was in any somehow right you can do it be as soon exactly so the. but but on the other hand there would be immediate reduction but i think academia is going to suffer the most in countries like united states where the thing is overall a much more like it so that is what one of my favorite russian near scientists at that senator niggas gotta know maybe you even know her and she spoke to me recently and she goes that a star and certainty is the most frightening thing for

a human psyche and since this crisis has brought us up to like a whole new level of uncertainty. she says these are the things that will help us through curiosity and empathy do you agree let me tell you what happened to kind of people the 1st kind of people say oh things are bad i'm gonna stay home and cry and wait for 6 to get better like for example. who were drivers say ok there's no right or another friend of mine who was. someone from a row he converted he decided to start a delivery service. he says people you know they're buying food that they don't want to wait in line supermarket and so you know and is making twice as much money twice ok so some people are making. lemonade out of lemons life because you know lemon i don't know how to translate it's russian but they've got to be

a special like life because you know let me make lemonade and other people are suffering ok and the governors have been extremely helpful for citizens who would have thought that the 1st socialist president or united states would be the most trump. he gave people universal basic income for a few months and it took possession of companies if that's not socialism i don't know what is socialism ok so the so the individual got a protective nest ok that they didn't have before so it is mixed so my what i'm telling you is that there are bad news or good news there are a lot of uncertainty here maybe less yet but it is makes the story is never one way when you see an event like that the 1st thing and that's a natural fragile the 1st thing you gotta do is say how can i make lemonade out of this lemon so for example a group of friends and i were stunning a thing

a sort of like maybe university that's offline events at the circus or encouraging others ok. and that's a product of that and that make so for us it is a. business creation opportunity for many it is a business where creation of a shirt but if you're is an employee of a travel agency and you want to wait for think to come back that's not the right approach you say some people are suffering and others are going to help in any way the governments have been propping up people who you know were desperate because they had no way to pull out of this by themselves. but mark warner if you want to headline news who would have expected. to run. must take a foreign policy break social as a 2 countries like united states because it's been like a double pleasure talking to you because i was interested in what you're going to say but now that you have inflicted me with optimism and now i am i'm coming out of

this interview saying this is a good thing that's happening to me been very good thing that well has been a mad man or not to make lemonade out of this lemonade out. that's what i'm going to say every morning when i wake up thank you so much it's been such a pleasure and chatting to thank you thank you thank you thank you take care of yourself a great thing there really are a whole to talk to soon i would like to thank synergy online forum organized by the synergy of business school for arranging this interview thanks to.

join me every thursday on the alex salmond show and i'll be speaking to guest of the world of politics for this i'm show business i'll see you. in the next letter post the usual. but if you have australian version they go this route you know there are people. who are. used to dumb shit on the new. site and studied to go to college to induce you to switch. but use 3 means. you need to go to church for this new look at a lot of things are well going to turn you into a pretty chilled good mr movie a choice to be on your boat it will show you such to be able to research on the

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a fairly decent job for many years thousands of years but it got entirely financial eyes in 2008 ever spent as relegated to the status. the mainstream media blame donald trump for the deadly riots on capitol hill while others point the finger elsewhere when it comes to radicalizing his base. this is banana republic that we're watching happen this is what you expect to see in a banana republic american politicians voice their shock comparing the violence in the heart of washington to the kind of thing that happens and what they call banana republics they look at whether america is really so different to one of those. bus facebook blocks trumps i count at least.