long welcome to so he can visionaries me sophie shevardnadze could 900 condemn a came as an external shock is unprecedented how can we navigate then certainty of the post condemning future to discuss this i'm joined by the author of the best selling books the black swan and his fragile and skin in the game guide that i've been dreaming to talk to you for the past 3 months every scandalous nassim nicholas taleb. yes i'm nicholas taleb risk analyst author of bought bestselling books black swan and 2 for a child skin in the game so great to have you with us it's been 3 months i'm dreaming of talking to you and asking you all these questions so the day has come hi. thank you. really really only 3 scripts are truly going to

start so nicholas at the synergy online forum you've talked about making societies more resilience to the future challenges without trying to protect them exactly but making sure we'll be ready for the unexpected i mean do you expect the call that crisis to be teaching us anything in that regard that's not there but there's 2 subtle things i have to say the 1st one is that you don't have to be a paranoid general but a lot of things have to be paranoid about small number of threats and the main one is. the. various other methods people just worry about little war. or war or. no the big think biggest threat. has been that it will be. ok and and and because of the structure of modern society germs can travel much faster

so something i was saying of the century scribing the difference in structure between today and the past is you know the silk road is very interesting and brought a lot of merchandise but guess what came with the merchandise on both sides terms ok but there were traveling the germs were traveling so 1st of all as a show and i was actually got 1st globalization from we've had merchandise moving without anybody on sally how ok from town to town to research all and byron back and forth and horses traveling for you know sort of drama days. so that the let's say it's mobilization you get germs of it. but at the time. it took a long time you know it took a long time to in fact they did. train in northern europe and was not the middle east took a locked up for the people to be in fact. the day you can set up a conference and pick your town really see one of my favorite cities conference

there 30000 specialists i don't know what say the. lungs are it or something more boring say of liver liver specialist come in from all around the world so people come from atlanta stand and tina cincinnati they go they mingle. and guess what they go back home for these later and 2 weeks later the start to spread their own to become super says super spreader that's we have many more suppressed road events today so. the good news is that now we understand the problem. and the pandemic we had was not very severe it was a small thing is here could have been a lot worse but it was not it was you know small thing it was not the stuff mall but i'm saying you can bet a lot worse could have been like something of the owner of smallpox or.

something similar or some other bacteria that's antibiotic resistant so we have now we live we have an awareness of it and the idea of any official theory is that every time a plane crashes the next plane ride you know would be safer to say the system learns from stakes and improves based on mistakes that is a good system so the world will be different wiser and then people now but hopefully it's good for peace because people understand the morro that the enemy is not some person with weapons the enemy of the thing you don't see. any little germ . pencil testing enemy not you know. all these of the military threats are a say because the world this from place and that now people are aware of it but will they really be smarter you think because like i'm looking back at sars

outbreak and had we paid more attention to it and gotten the vaccine back then and been so much easier to get the vaccine done for calling 1000 now it seems like we don't really learn that much from our mistakes do you really think it's going to the vaccines are not the solution by the way this quarter collectivity is a solution because we're still waiting for an issue of effects here so whatever whenever you discuss medical improvements these take time take a lot of time. as our president can happen an unpredictable pace so if i say that 100 it's i.v. the aids start but 35 years 40 years ago ok no lessons yet. treatments maybe move exit so you can have more steady improvement and treatments we may have a max of extreme tomorrows like winning a lot lotto and investment and even then it seems may prove to be short term effect

effects of you know not long term effect because of as a as you know you know things you state so i think a more robust world would be one in which we do business as usual but guess what be prepared for hard times current pries are a lot cheaper to reduce mobility of the germs as a lot cheaper than having lockdowns we spent trillions from you know lockdowns is vastly cheaper so have some measures. so that when you talk about be prepared for a current times and that will take care of everything in terms of connotative being the danger. ok i get that but is this like a temporary saying or should we stay in this sort of current time not forever can we ever somehow go back to the simplest weren't fast travel hassle free boarders all that stuff you know you will have free mourners everything so long as people are prepared this there is an eruption of something like and i mean to ask border

control to reduce connectivity because the jurors don't travel by phone they will try a long zoom they travel you see on air france and the aeroflot and on carriers so you want to use that and then and let me tell you again let's say something out saying that senator kerry as you look at history and the. black death the plague took place in a search and hundreds still have corn ties and $850.00. and and and and and every ship talking about the psyche of the people that were prepared for it now sometimes maybe they were lax about not using the laws or at those with it the people for actually 40 days potatoes before releasing them but they had a system in place for 500 years. don't stop you cannot go and i was saying you cannot go from me ottoman empire into the hub

spirit we're going to touch whether or not there was a pandemic they had the system now i'm not asking to i want that all the time but to have a plan in place to enforce 3 levels checked passengers. by sensors or quarantined passengers it's a level 123 and still 000 most of the time in till you have information and then you can act if you acted that way out of on we would have a problem. oh it so here's the thing like in the beginning of the pandemic when it all started and we understood that it was global any was irreversible everyone hysterically started remembering the notion of the black swan . and then it sort of got you knowing and you were saying this is really not a black swan it's a white swan and then just the latest century i've read of yours an international

business times are saying yeah actually it could be a black swan is it is it because the pandemic itself the virus is self is not the black swan but the black swan is the handling of the aftermath there is a saying i know what i said this is a story so it will call this a people. handling it. my black swan i said it's not the disease but the eros the lack of logical behavior of our people. that they're not just you know i they're not are they so let me tell you why it's not a black swan a black swan to something you don't see coming something that they have movies about how could it be a black swan so they had movies about the nose into the black swan discuss going through the day and i say whoa because of the structure of the world. expect to have maybe sure but that makes but deep are the ones that have the.

let's not trust medical knowledge too much because. it has improved for a lot of diseases but the diseases are smaller than most ok but whatever is happening now or not now that the disease is sort of. going backwards but we're left with economic consequences with fractured societies with minorities rebelling all over the world with with all the consequences that we have on our hands what i think you know is going to happen is a transformation of economic structures to accommodate. potential pandemics even never happen again people didn't prepare for them like for example in the united states we have a migration out of new york city where you have a super spreaders i mean his subway so even if we control this one and it's gone and you have to worry and goodbye even if you control this one there will be.

paranoia about what can happen next so so we have a some people living in new york plus there's another thing there is a structural urban transformation in the way things are happening with academia and with offices. for the same reason we're talking also about not new studio and seems to work ok it's still a dating thing that would have happened in the physical world we are learning to do things offline and these things are taken place you know in a remote or a enough light but that meant remote these things are taking place remotes are causing a gross of economic activity in some sectors so and so i think one of the transformation is a duchess and russia or country houses here are in demand people want to move there ok because you can do remote from there and once in a while go to the city as same time. real estate is going to be depressed cities.

online shopping people learn to do online shopping it's not as entertaining as going to the mall but you know having a house which means that malls are going to suffer big time everywhere. but also if you live in a remote place it's good news for you because you may find an employer who's come to. they say for example now there's a crisis of love in all and people want to emigrate you know who stay there or try to be hired remote somewhere it's much easier is on how the visa problem so it creates you know. like people can travel without a visa holder a lot of the things like that so they've been some other this transformation coming out of this coupled with some bad news for some industries. businesses and of course to me it's a bad news for for all this political. geo political discourse

because the enemy isn't just some foreign country anywhere the enemy is a german now and we all face and same for let's hope so let's hope so that let's hope that we'll actually learn something or really draw a lesson out of it ok it doesn't take a short break right now when we're back we'll continue talking to the author of best selling books the black swan antifragile skin a game risk analyst nassim nicholas taleb don't go away.

used to be the boss in his old. saves lives in the red zone. this is a buddhist monk he takes to the cemetery. changed their lives. and

we're back with author of best selling books the blacks wanting to fragile skin in the game a risk analyst nassim nicholas taleb nicholas anti fragility is achieved by decentralization you say propping up the capitalism local governments printing cute monopolies from

forming strengthening links in a chain so that returning to fall is not a problem for the future do you see anyone in the world now going down that road i mean is anyone actually doing that definitely yes so let me explain what has happened if you see the reaction to the virus the lower the unit in the scale the more responsible it's like the city of atlanta also met it masks much smarter than the state of georgia. so if you look at 1030 that far better the central government so what happened at the bottom up process works fine for the spend the make because in their own the science or you know after the fact that you have the right. downs were closing by themselves the minute there was a stretch so those those who are paranoid enough to close early or escape will select this and the other subsequent diseases that they had that came later you know them shut down the town you're going to go up or you can go out you can't go

back and so so my idea is the higher you go in the organization the worst so what is. the most incompetent organization in history as a world health organization the most income agree they could not understand masks that masks are symmetric like if i were a mask they said well there's no evidence this is cool naive evidence of them was it and i will publish some scientific papers explaining they don't send the military they use is mathematics that 100 years old read the notes and their scientific understanding isn't science they say there's no evidence massport. there's is there evidence they don't work there's no evidence that i'm going to have a car accident today should i not wear seat belts they don't understand so the idea that. it's not some of the higher up people should be more competent as busts the higher up the more incompetent c.c. was incompetent and united states the center for disease control same thing they

had the same attitude towards masks where we were barking and january to say ok this is serious the world has a reservation or say or there's no evidence that this disease or you know can trust meant for human to human. this is lunacy or generally $26.00 so there is a world health organization led to a lot of problems ok and problem except waited so if we didn't have it would be better off you say and the so so so i like bottom up structures are i'm a localist so subsidiarity in other words if you cannot do it at the local level maybe you go up ok and for things like the military for things like the pows ok that's fine you don't at the top level to come to the policy or the village level but for things like water electricity and basic safety like. leave it to the town

some towns in italy decided to close to strangers others were open to let them compete who's going to do better you know facing the class of the realm of that's so this is leading people to understand locals so where is your smell in terms of. regionalised economy because a lot of great minds and economy out of space spoken to different different countries they're saying you know we're going from global to regional economy to let me think we're all in the same nobody wants to go to a party where you just you know you're got to sit on the street and do it while so you know i have a feeling of control over them so it's somewhere in between so i think that the fight is between those who want say 70 percent or 75 percent say so because even if the chinese make something a lot cheaper and it's no threat to you let's say ok then then start pharmaceutical

ok that's fine or they can make has a from a sort of call that we use yes but you cannot have a control 100 percent some sort of hope they don't enter the well there is destruction then you're cut off from the source and so for vital sayings maybe we'll have a we want a world where you don't have the vital things are must be produced locally here within an area that is a racial. and non vital things who cares they say this glass of water and they can make it and whatever they want they can make it in a mood they want that's fine it's a discussion that's fine i can live without the glass right but pharma no so and then there are some items and i think countries what i think. will happen is countries will say ok we need to have stock on this this this this and that or make sure it's produced locally and the rest will so impact on the general economy is

going to be. not big summit because i really don't think anybody wants are so you don't really win his leg big slowdown in globalization you think you think things have a nicer not more going there was a sion and be more guarded in other words what i say is like there was a show and this economic boost we got was it is partially or maybe totally or whatever it is definitely had a role in pulling a 1000000000 people out of poverty we didn't want a 1000000000 people out of poverty by sending them. kids to study at harvard professor and she goes you know no that's not how it works or and they're messing up their place no we got them out of poverty that's for us asian ok by having gross in one area lead to growth in another area so we had that so the saying is we don't want to mess it up we want to protect it but on the other hand an enemy where you just say listen to any surprise they should say hey what's your problem they

say well. the china makes. 95 percent of the vital drugs ok that's fine now through some here it's not big deal non-vital drugs like if you want. some kind of. that's fine to make it but so what i'm saying is that if you have to make a list of things that the government will assist or not be localized the list will not be mostly l'arche. and then also oh the supply chains who are the dynamic handled them rather well i mean it's not a big deal what i think is happening now there would be a big transformation is a physical movement of population like me traveling to won't be reduced and the business traveler will will not be there won't be you know as active as we saw in the past because they feel his life is over and where now they all understood that

we could work with zoom and who wants to spend 3 hours in traffic area day. but you still have a business travel but for me to go to you know i don't mind doing so or georgia or school say once a year and i mean. going to have my and my amenities and all these i love the feel of i don't mind going once a year but but then spending more time there and traveling you know back i'm forced because there's a conference or something i will not have any more or to use myself by travel zouk would not be able to replace everything you still need people face to face ok yeah you got it i don't think that it was something any somehow right you can do to be as soon exactly so the. but but on the other hand there would be immediate reduction but i think academia is going to suffer the most in countries like united states where the thing is overall a much more. like it so that is what one of my favorite russian near scientists at

that senator negus gotta know maybe you even know her and she spoke to me recently and she goes that assert uncertainty the most frightening thing for a human psyche and since this crisis has broadcast up to like a whole new level of uncertainty. she says these are the things that will help us through curiosity and empathy do you agree let me tell you what happened to kind of people the 1st kind of people say oh things are bad i'm gonna stay home and cry and wait for things to get better like for example. who were drivers say ok there's no right or another friend of mine who was. someone from iraq. he converted it to size to start a delivery service. he says people you know they're buying food that they don't want to wait in line supermarket and so you know and it's making twice as much money twice ok so some people are making. lemonade out of lemon

life because they're a lemon i don't know how to translate it's russian but they've got to be a special like life because you remember you make lemonade and other people are suffering ok and the governors have been extremely. health role for citizen who would have thought that the 1st socialist presidents or united states would be the most trump. he gave people universal basic income for a few months and it took possession of companies if that's not socialism i don't know what is socialism ok so the so the individual got a protective nest ok that they didn't have before so it is mixed so my what i'm telling you is that there are bad news or good notes there are a lot of uncertainty here maybe less yet but it is makes the story is never one way when you see an event like that the 1st thing and that's a nasty fragile the 1st thing you gotta do is say how can i make lemonade out of

this lemon so for example a group of friends and i were stunning a thing a sort of like maybe university that's offline events at the ficus or encouraging others ok and that's a product of that and that make it so for us it is a. business creation opportunity for many it is a business her creation up her shirt but if you're is an employee of a travel agency anyone oh wait for think they'll come back that's not the right approach they say some people are suffering and others are going to help and anyway the governments have been propping up people who you know were desperate because they had no way to pull out of this by themselves but mark warner if you want to headline is done who would have expected the co-head to run boss no mistaken foreign policy code to break socialism to countries like united states in spain.

like a double pleasure talking to you because i was interested in what you're going to say but now that you've inflicted me with optimism and now i am coming out of this interview saying this is a good thing that's happening to me really good thing that well has been a madman are going to make lemonade out of this lemonade out. that's what i'm going to say every morning when i wake up thank you so much it's been such a pleasure and chatting to thank you thank you thank you thank you take care of yourself there really hope to talk to you soon i would like to thank synergy online forum organized by the synergy business school for arranging this interview thanks to you guys.

join me every thursday on the alex i'm i'm sure i'll be speaking to us in the world of politics for i'm show business i'll see you then. and i noticed that at 1st the usual. when you have australian bush you know they go this route you have to white people. who are. used to them she jumped on the nearest union. and if it's. true. that he did say they don't believe that it is you just that you. might use to me and. i did you need to go to church with this new look like a loser well that i don't feel pretty chilled or this are boring insurers to be on

your motors will show you such terrible assertions of course took a little girl out of this thread who flew with the coke were full attention you. point of soup they're beautiful i hear them mostly we're going there. you know it would be mean. to put so that the new. black cola what their ambitions to their hair for. gas to jenny hutt shots just. reach those immediate goold. b.s.t. when you know any more than with your dog's looks we're going to see it in your will i just stuck i don't know what you just what does lead to speech if you could you will know when you are going in the usual with this. one else seemed wrong wrong rowles just don't call. me

old before get to shape out these days the conflict as a kid and engagement equals betrayal. when so many find themselves worlds apart when she's to look for common ground. the mainstream media. capitol hill. this is banana republic that we're watching happen this is what you expect to see in a banana republic american politicians voice. in the heart of the washington. they call publix we look at well there's a big difference between.