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a low and welcome the cross where all things are considered i'm peter lavelle the ruling class is rarely agree on much but not when it comes to china it is agreed the us needs to somehow get tough with beijing what does that really mean engaging china while trying to contain it is that even possible the biden ministration will eventually have to answer this question. to discuss these issues and more i'm joined by my guest michael maloof in washington. isn't former pentagon senior security policy analyst and asking major

we have james nokia's professor of international relations at new york university and in beijing we cross the way oh and he is a news anchor and host x e g t n r a gentleman cross the rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i was appreciate go to james 1st a james you know we we heard when i was secretary blinken was being confirmed as secretary of state he made some interesting comments particular when it comes to china missing a basically greek with the trump administration's approach to china how do you take that on board and you see that the the biden ministration will be nuanced when it comes to china or this will be a continuation of the 4 years of the drumbeat ministration go ahead james one of my 1st rules about politics is that words are cheap and you can't always trust what people say in a public forum to be representative of their actual policy i do think they'll be a significant difference there have been a lot of statements from the incoming biden ministration i think will be

a significant difference one of the things that biden has made clear is that he plans to work with america's allies more and also follow more multilateral approaches to china which is different from what what trump did trump was much more into unilateral bullying and it didn't work frankly didn't work it didn't get him results and china itself counterproposals with essential it here in studio tell all rules that is the w t o and other kinds of global rules so actually in some sense china's speaking a better liberal game than the united states is in this case because trump has been kind of a nationalist bully and previous american presidents have typically been good at saying that well we should have one set of rules that applies to all countries and that of your cio of course is the place where most trade rules are enforced. ok and so it's going to be a shame when what do you what do you think about that and in looking at the new bike administration because if tony blinken is to be believed and we know that is

the assumption that trent trump was a bit on bass thick with china how does he seem see that is a continuation because i think james is absolutely right i mean china russia other the other great powers have said why don't we just play by the rules by international law and it can it can relieve a lot of tensions here go ahead my friend well they're great to join you again and your team i think. by his hands would be tied yeah what have so many of them sticky issues to tackle this $1.00 trillion dollars rescue package i would have a hard time to pass the senate that's not forget there's such thing as say the buster and even if both cars this kickstart this budget reconciliation process as far as i know the republicans can still use the loader rama to revive you know and then revise again this biden deal for up to a 1000 times so we can expect other party infighting and their course is this issue

of racism and if they should be trained the left and their rights and also the different factions within their rights where it will get recognition focused on china here i mean and then in the latter days of the of the trump administration senior level cabinet level officials visit in taiwan ok i mean obviously china doesn't like that ok i mean if we could but we can't blink in essence we're and i agree with james you know you can talk trash all you want nonetheless i mean if we're going to see embassador level. cabinet level officials visiting high pain that's something you're not good in the government in beijing is not going to be very happy about. i don't think. let's face it i don't think the trungpa got the issue of taiwan right i didn't say. they believed in judging from his remarks is getting they show time all right i just think the american public more importantly got it right i mean this is not an independent country its own constitution said

republic of china it was what the western society caught the free china versus the communist china i can today and later on of course there is the narrative has become you know the democratic time and worry versus dictatorial c.e.c. let's face it i don't think there can be a wise and reasonable us policy biden policy towards i want a war zone controversy and john. writes if there is not a new honest sufficient public understanding about this he issue and i'm afraid my friend then that's an. adverse to what is really going on in the public you know michael you 9 know barry i mean in the 1st days of the of they abided ministration american troops were moved out of iraq into syria i mean one of the 1st foreign policy moves they made ok it didn't even really make the headlines you had to really go to antiwar dot com or something like that to find that out so i mean what i'm kind of beating around the bush here is that we're going to see

a reset of the obama administration with some nuance taken over from the drumbeat ministration of the by the administration michel yes i think you're right on biden of course was the vice president during the obama administration and it had a notorious history of leading from behind i think you're going to see the same thing here again i think it's going to be a more of a compassionate approach a more compromise an approach that china of course was totally different as you say was bombastic in order to basically leverage and get attention and he did that quite successfully at the outcome of course was quite miserable. and as the concert . when we had. 2 to 2 major powers here that were just going to be enhanced by and i think that biden will be a much more. i think he's going to show more of a compassionate type of foreign policy toward china even. and it will not he will

not take serious initiatives he will be looking at china more through the human rights prism and that's going to create instant problems i think from china's perspective they're basically saying either late fall or get out of the way because we're coming we're doing our thing we want to abide by all the. international regulations and rules along with russia and if the united states thought for one minute that they were going to use china the playoffs russia in this case it's not going to happen as we did during the cold war by the way if shust not going to happen and so i think things are going to remain relatively stagnant but china will march ahead through that spelman road initiative even though it's had some bumps in its recovery is far far better than what we will be able to muster within the same time periods and i think that we're going to be seen a rise in china very very quickly and we're seeing it this effect now have it have

been a ripple effect even in europe europe is going to probably look more toward china and the far east than it has to go in the united states we already know that in the waning days of the of the church is raising the mass and then they don't sit by and it's not in terms yabby but they did know that the page is already been heard here i think that american foreign policy is so confusing for an outsider that you better start you can say that you have to start hedging your bets right now it's not only foreign policy but they don't see markets in the us any longer that europe is a is an export in country and they ate exporting countries and there we have italy already a member of the belt road initiative that's the beginning of a. and the southern part of the e.u. is going to be gender drift over and so i see this evolving and probably exciting reign in under the by the administration well those lives there's a lot of kings of the road here because you know i look at the more impulse the blogs writing i mean you know that my fall or leave no offense game 0 and i look at

some of the big ants year. i just have to wonder where they think the u.s. really stands in the world right now he's a b. china i mean there's yes there's been so much talk about containing china you know in asia nato great example we've already heard you know relying upon allies won out lies in the vicinity there's a number of countries that now border disputes with china what in the world should the united states get involved with the border is be when china in the countries around you but we you talk about that. you know i mean i discount this idea of a nation nato and part of the problem of it is the 2 leading american allies in east asia which is south korea and japan don't get along very well with each other so i think they'd have a hard time it's sort of like greece and turkey a nato you know they have as much disagreement with each other as they do with china and both of them also have very substantial trade with china in fact china as

their leading trading partners extremely important trading partner so they can't offend china and they often disagree with each other it would be very hard to have the same kind of unity that you had in most of nato in the east asian region so on the other hand i don't also agree that the u.s. really is not party to the to the various disputes for example over the south china sea the united states has no claims on the south china sea the argument that it's strategically important ridiculous it's critically important chinese trade it isn't to american trade. except for american trade with china so even there those little eyelets are you know in wartime they'd be extraordinarily vulnerable they vizio isolated and cut off from supply so i don't really see mr pidgen important what is important is the oil. under the south china sea and of course the fish resources there now and and understandably the neighboring countries are going to contend over those resources much the way for example norway and britain contended over the north sea oil until they agreed to a simple bit but game james that you know if you take being. the assumed or

promise military support from the united states off the table i would tend to think we'll meet let's go to beijing here now and then then then the neighbor would have ranged and so all by itself without an outsider in their weapons of war i mean it seems i mean it seems to me common sense that the neighborhoods you need care of itself 1st and not invite sides go ahead. while under the fence apparently of this asian nato concept last time i checked most of the r.c. on countries traded more with china than with the united states you know i studied the national relations foreign masters in america and most american professors would tell you the greatness of comparative advantage of free trade of lowering many barriers and co tests and you know in many ways of course china still have this market access issues with some countries but i think to a large extent china is practicing what these western elites were preaching had

been preaching over the decades. in a dome i don't think it is materializing a look at the philippines there has been this goodwill civilian goodwill between people to people china japan you know hundreds of millions not just millions but pro millions of chinese travel to japan every year to buy products to travel there and there has been this good asian neighbor the relations between china and other countries between other asian neighbors i think at the end of day it is up to these asian countries to us asians to figure out our own problems james say we mean we have to think of military budgets there are. point no one wants to resolve seriously very few people to resolve the conflict on the korean peninsula because everyone's making a huge grift off it you know if it's not broken why fix it go ahead 30 seconds before we go to the break you know that's why i study the business routes of international relations because i think business understanding business is

essential out of things that are presented as national security issues are really about selling weapons and of course there is a big arms business there particularly the more that china can be the bogeyman in the region you can induce the local countries to feel they need to arm and they have are they have armed very substantially although not all of them buy american arms yet non for example still buys from russia and it's recently got some more of a timeline ok and huge arms deals i joined that i don't know but here we go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on the bike and ministration and china stay with r.t. . i might. show somebody an accident where a car goes through a deal sign at the intersection. suggest to the witness said they saw us down side instead of the eels sign. and these experiments many people will

adopt the suggestion we call it misinformation and. claim it as their own memory. welcome back across top where all things are considered i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're talking about the bike and ministration and china. ok let's go back to michael in washington let's look at the really the big picture or maybe the questions that the obvious questions they are. or on people's mind and i'm thinking michael right here you know this is just a china does not threaten the united states militarily it doesn't but china does threaten american hegemony and for 75 years the united states has gotten used to of its hedging monic role in the world and it's being challenged it's not

a challenge militarily it's being challenged in almost every other respect and this is something that washington elites cannot stand and you know i'm i would even go as far as to say is that this is not this cannot be comprehended because of american exceptionalism and that is the biggest barrier in understanding the rise of other great powers this is you know since time immemorial right powers right and powers fall ok but no one power is hedge of money forever michael no i agree with that and i think united states still wants to it has its it has actually increased and it has shifted from the middle east attention to to the far east and they end up pacific region now because it seems that that's where the future of conflict is going to be consequently it will be using that freedom of navigation approach and hope that they're going to be able to get countries in the region including india

by the way not only on the resource issue but also a freedom of passage but china is is has a limited force projection at a moment in our ever however it will need to protect its interests as it expands the belt road initiative into africa end to let even let america over the years to come and i would say that by 2050 not only will be the top economic power but the top military power in the world and i think that this is what the united states is grappling with the because it still. holds on to that exceptionalism concept. and and it also has still has outstanding commitments not only to south korea but to japan and i think as as one of your guests pointed out that even though china even though korea and south korea and japan don't are not getting along these days however they still have these commitments to each other i think the united states

approach with them will be more compartment a tour in each country and thereby try to retain some semblance of a gemini in that region as as a last resort because as you point out. the united states really has no further compelling national security interest unless and until china those become a world military power and that's where things will become much more interesting and what it meant if i can state with you that it would depend on what its aims and goals are i mean i mean i think we look at i mean i don't i'm a i would like someone to make the case to me that you know right now the rise of china militarily is benign for the world but what would a vent would have been more it tipped over it seems to me in watching china china is not yet emerging into reemerging it's reemerging from the western including russian colonialism of the 19th century and it's yeah i've been there i mean the

thing is i think the west doesn't get the non-western country can be successful i think it's a simple as that james is that fair. and during the 1980 s. i was teaching courses about japan and in those days the united states that was all the rage talk about the coming war with japan and japan as the rising new superpower and of course we saw that never happened and i had i made fun of the idea in my classes at the time because i said you know japan had a major economic bubble japan did not have military aspirations to rival the united states and so forth but of course in terms of driving the budget at the pentagon it was it was something that was worth focusing on for the propaganda. well you and i think china has much the same role today as you said china is not a military threat to the united states today the united states of the overwhelming c. in air power it's likely to remain that way for at least a generation as 2050 it's hard to tell and it would partly depend on whether china feels they need military force but what's very clear is china's very successful in

business globally and so i think it's the business rivalry that actually matters is the real substance behind the arguments about national security it's a fact that chinese telephone service and internet services are vastly cheaper than americans and therefore that their global competitor and washington knows that telecom internet is the future and if it is china's winning you know influence in telecom internet around the world that's going to affect the cultural and business environment of the 21st century well how and in beijing how do you feel about when james has said there because that's essentially my view because i mean look at him american media elite for the last 12 months and last 18 months it went from the c.c.p. ok and then it went from president xi to the addicted to the dictator the emperor she i mean you see this change of rhetoric in the last 18 months maybe longer and and it seems to me that in that you can't disconnected from the economic turndown

from the code crisis here because you know the united states you know if you look at its reaction to kobe is it's not something you need any american to be proud of right now ok i mean it's just a mess all right in china in china i understand it is on track economic activity has returned growth is returned i live in russia here from a lot of us stock all the way to kaliningrad the reaction is exactly the same there are no governors you know squabbling over there are scoring points against this guy and this person here it's like there is a uniform medical system and it's done the same way across you know almost 12 times . own sphere and i think this is when the media class and and others don't understand about china but china has its own aspirations it doesn't want to export its ideology has no interest in there whatsoever and this is what we're told because where you were told this was the cold war cold war 2.0 except words with

china yeah i mean in that china has been portrayed as aggressive power you know a power hungry country that is aiming to over power and overtaking united states in due time but. has there any has there and it be i mean another country that speaks chinese mandarin as a modern language i mean singapore is one of them but it's i mean well trilingual society the lingua franca of the world today is english and also if you look at china's. so what issues with. tongue on taiwan and their most they you know historical issues. territories that has life story corps and cultural ties with china that is currently china under chinese sovereignty. so media coverage is not fair chance he famously said anti-communism has been this national level

idiology in america for 2030 years in his local manufacturing consent. i mean a lot of things are liking you know the entrepreneurship of the chinese society where the business aspect the meritocracy here in china if you talk about how the chinese theater us i mean they're selected we went through a grueling college placement process pretty much like those in russia we study school hard math physics signs saying order to get ahead in society and mean you know i'm i'm i'm just you know i understand within a couple of years they'll be more skim students didn't spending stem in china then the entire western world you have the reason i say already there's an it's a. priorities of what kind of society you want to have good go. yeah i mean you didn't hear these things in a western society. if there were to be a successful country on kobe control as you know south korea is often cited i mean

stream media or state or china was you know often mentioned by the negative lights in that they started this and they some ways are known for exploited this virus to damage america if you watch fox that's their narrative so many things are missing you know the rise official media certainly gave rise to extreme abuse in america and only in a heading of nuanced understanding of china ever more implies that the thing is he going to go back to michael here is that you know at a base he does go straight to the point here the they they sense of relative failure or a failings is a projected on someone else i mean donald trump got elected because the russians did that no it's because you had a lot of people that are disgruntled in the country ok and they wanted a change of path the in the that depend demick has ripped through the fabric of society particularly in the middle of america was more businesses destroyed

somebody must be to blame oh it must be the chinese i mean this is this constant projection here and it's so it's not constructive and it actually has potentially very negative outcomes go ahead and i think you're going to see those but the biden ministration i think that they are conflicted. and what has gone unmentioned is that both china russia iran they're ultimately all up on a straight forward path to develop a multilateral world order as opposed to the unit polar world order that has been u.s. led for years and years and years and that is this shift that we're beginning to see europe has picked up on it as i said and we're going to see the end there we're going to see child. anna her so in that and that's what's bothering the united states as a they see their their their own influence and economic power and military power being challenged and quite successfully right now and the recovery is going to take years in the united states because of the way we conduct ourselves and as

a consequence china is going to emerge much more quickly as a consequence you know and james knowing that you're familiar with the visit of these traps how is this going to play out with with china because they need they and in simple words or that is that he's trapped is there's a. dominant power in them there's a rising power in your 3 things you can do you can give up and let the other one go you can negotiate or you can fight what do you see that it will within the context of the biden ministration these entities trapped ahead i've often argued this point in part because it has nothing to do with the cities the cities portrayed a civil war between contending forces in the greek world between democrats and old barracks there was a heavy class component to cities which the whole could notion of it's the city's traffic ok you can get one answer on i do i don't you know and my brother have been mean here but you know what i'm not yeah but if you if you take the city's misuse name out of it then i do agree that there is you know variety of approaches but i

think what's happening in the united states in this part hasn't been mentioned yet is the vast majority of the leading elements of american business have already adapted to the rise of china you know they've adapted to the rise of china by doing a vast amount of business in china and continue to expand their vote with their feet as an apple for example opening a big plant in in her not in and now the latest test slope into a manufacturing plant in shanghai. citibank is expanding its business including derivatives you know i think it's j.p. morgan recently ordered open derbez trading in china you know american business loves china. american government doesn't necessarily put a large portion of american banjo in the comedy don't you know why because the government doesn't because they need it fine so much it gets off the hook by blaming someone else gentlemen that's all the time we have you want to thank my guest in washington basking rich and in beijing and i want to thank our viewers for

watching us here are to see you next time remember. because there's a survival guide book stacie just to start to. be sure it's going to get him back. oh heck no. repatriations look at the rest of 70 years. bill of the separate kaiser report. seems wrong but i. just don't. get to see palin just days after. and in detroit because the trail.

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