thomas hogan and green beret and he is a senior research fellow at the american institute for economic research in los angeles we have piety and he is a corporate for teaching planning and independent economic analysts and in bangkok we process steve keen he is a crowdfunding professor of economics on paper as well as a distinguished research fellow of the institute for years strategy resilience and security of university college london where i generally cross up rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i was appreciated ok let's go to los angeles 1st you know probably there's a lot of people that talked over the months about n. and l. recovery v. recovery dubey oh and none of it's really panned out maybe we don't have enough data and as i said in my introduction they're still rolling out the vaccine and we'll see what the the outcome will be but in your mind in looking at this this saga that we've all gone through what i see we're all arms room still. and what is the most important significant change the economy has undergone due to this crisis

go ahead. well you mention those letters k. comes to mind to repeat only from a case given to me and it's put in fairly tame terms and mainstream or corporate or business media i increasingly interpret that k. to really kind of be a for survival of the fittest kovan $1000.00 caused an economic shock 3 times worse than the 2008 financial crisis and that's according to entities like i h s market and other banks it's all meant to provide a transition toward with the world economic forum i.m.f. world bank and central banks like to see is a greener eventually khana me one where techno technocratic technologically streamlined skill sets are reintroduced or introduced in with a newly introduced global monetary system on top of it assets across many sectors will be consolidated mega automation drives implemented in practically every

industry population's hawkish li reduced through one means or another and desired productivity measured by ai and internet of things enabled means global economic uncertainty will be stoked in essence in order to then introduce pre-planned technocratic solutions in my viewing of the next 24 to 72 months although wonder economics is considered the gloomy science what you've had to say is quite gloomy i'm afraid let me go to steve here i absolutely agree with what i had to say there probably a whole lot more but there's kind of a wrinkle in all this what about working people do they have a role in this here or are they all supposed to learn code go ahead. well i do 50 of them you know almost to say the financial market is what's going to trust because a lot of that expectation the other side of cover is been driven by central banks on a mission by 2 dimensions to fasten the crossing so you have to disconnect it when

asked if it's of the. and by the same time the real economy to house calls but also for actually more small companies so that if you are laying a large amount of profit simply because. services with the cash flow that right now up. to the bar and want to keep it go and on that mr and also out of profit in america at 10 percent of g.d.p. in the 1st 6 months of 2020 but now that means is when this when this struck out why it will add up to see ostler flow profit in human history exceeding even the levels caused by the financial process and the good out of that because it hasn't been money borrowed to go on a spending spree to thousands it's been money to survive. and it will be there so i think we're going to see what i'm going calling a a slump with no good which is unprecedented with every other summer has been

preceded by and when that happens and it didn't work in us going to be quite as complied as they were back in 2000 blacks that's another rate which will get you here how can you are going to react was numb is the minute they know it's not over this crisis needs the continued growth of monopolies a big one companies like amazon and others like them and we have was never his nation depending on the sec you're destruction of small and medium sized businesses which according to and there's so many estimates are so many questions there are so many of them will not survive here so we this me and ominous needs degree really be read case here because if you're doing all more or less all right when this started you're probably doing more or less all right but if you were doing well you're certainly not doing well now. you know i'm going to differ a little bit in what i think are going to be the long term consequences here because i think the current state of the economy is just not representative of all c. in the long run if you look at the united states we had

a terrible. all recession but we've largely bounced back i mean in q 2 of 2020 we had the worst downturn in economic history a contraction of 31.4 percent bigger than the great depression the unemployment rate was 14.7 percent but by the end of the year it was down to 6.7 percent cut in half back to a normal level and the only thing that was holding it back from going even lower is that a lot of states have lockdowns and business restrictions that prevent businesses from operating and i think when those things go away we're going to see something a lot closer to the normal situation that we had before we'll see a little bit of excel aeration in long term trends like working from home but probably not nearly as much as we're seeing right now. react to that there because the certainly in the workforce has changed dramatically here and also you know what is what role should the government be playing in this not for the people that were bailed out there you know concierge service for the ridge but i'm talking about

middle america here and it's you know the debate is raging now about $2000.00 checks and other kinds of stimulus what kind of stimulus is necessary because i mean look at that the fine print of what they're they're discussing almost well very little of it has to deal with dealing with this crisis that it's a lot of problems the real key accumulated from that is far back as the 1960 so i mean this is a a great way to clear your biology go ahead. professor king kind of referenced what i sense is the increasing futility of government stimulus and you know government measures to try and right past wrongs just a comment here the prior guest interesting it's note it's interesting to know global economic growth had already been revised downward in almost all g 20 connelly's in early 2019 as that's due to high policy uncertainty ongoing trade tensions and further erosion of business and consumer confidence they

. by equity markets surging since 2009 actual economic conditions for consumers never fully recovered after the 08 crisis despite what the metrics were listing to the public a coded pandemic is thus simply kind of provided a great excuse for marking to market as it were the true state of the u.s. u.k. and u.k. economies at least while then calling further just based on a deeper mandates what are. expected to be carried through for consolidation of assets so we never fully recovered after all wait and hope it is just provided the opportunity for making the unemployment the inflation the real g.d.p. figures truer to you know who are as there was no impetus for doing so prior you know. we just heard from buying something in the utility of us. how do you

react to that i just agree to disagree with the head then if you didn't have government spending now and then a minute 5 write off because what's happened to you is going to be difficult russians of individuals 'd or a lot from working and and among those. that still have the financial obligations i rented the previous. without the government stimulus we looking at 20 percent unemployment right now sussed in the straits of volatile you have a pandemic which shut out the essence of capitalism which is trast transactions and without the government which can create money at will by running a deficit and doesn't have to borrow money from anybody to do it in fact it creates money by doing that without the government being in a hall so i think it actually shows the government spending and i think that's one reason i would say yet most satisfying to my montresor your interest in arguing this allows 20 use i would just are granted the man. tricks for the truly measuring

unemployment or not. they haven't been accurate for decades no necessarily yet you could argue till the cows come home but you know just reporting people that are recollecting unemployment is vastly unfair considering the swaths of homeless that are seeping into suburban lawns. or that it's going to say drastic and it would be even worse far worse for the government to. give you no idea that changes invented a 30 percent of g.d.p. injection of the government money i mean a lot in the 1st 6 months of this year now without interruption we'd be talking about a catastrophic situation there gentlemen gentlemen that kind of begs the question here is that me got it moment here is that it's the lockdowns ok it's the lockdowns the new created this ok i am i the devil is observant i don't really like sending no checks that need go but in this case this gave me bill we're told not to work

they were not allowed to work and i think they have to be compensated for that but it's really the lockdowns and that is 19 economic activity though. there was a lot of these trends your way book or this and it now in this would give been enhanced year when hunting me because i would prefer to stay away from stimulus but you know i think that the lockdowns were taken to an extreme here of just really destroying a lot of wealth with a lot of wealth in the middle class go ahead it's great so i'm going to agree with you on lockdowns but disagree with the other guests on the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus and so the way that i see it if we look at the united states right now you know we have a 6.7 percent unemployment rate which is a just a little bit above the long term average of 6 percent but we have a huge diversion between states so we have 8 states that have extremely high unemployment of 8 percent or more we have 8 states that have extremely low

unemployment of 4. sent or less and so the context of those is that either one of those things the high rates of unemployment above 8 percent that's only happened 3 times since the great depression so we're talking about historically high rates and the low rates of less than 4 percent that too has only happened 3 times in the diversion that is i mean you have this huge division and that due to the lock downs so so of the of the states with the lowest unemployment rates 6 of the 8 are states that are almost totally open of the states with the highest unemployment rate 7 of the 8 are states that have are among the most strict lockdowns so we see this huge dispersion in and economic performance and unemployment because a lot of states are doing great and open in recovered while other states are locked downwards literally illegal to run a business and hire more workers and so the lockdowns are the thing that's causing this difference not problems with the economy us americans would leave america reversion to the us to go on living to deliver them as it always and that because

actually i could see it all in europe and by a short shot will matter what the sauces you toss a bass are in europe and america. in this country is going to short out right recently with it is my favorite word is a marker or on that oil it's a bit late if the rest of the go as good as intelligently as scotland was doing you would have an argument of all else one while the other has been badly run by every country on the that is currently biting this is suicidal once and didn't add including of course america jerry sneed i'm going to jump in here gentlemen we're going to go to was your break and now that your break we'll continue our discussion on the economy and stay.

imagine picking up a future textbook on the early years of the 21st century what are the chapters called gun violence school shootings homelessness 1st it was my job it was my field bill it was my savings i have nothing i have nothing it is not like i don't try aloof or resources i look for jobs i look for everything i can to make this house. in oil and doing this. the road to the american dream paved with did refuse to use its this very idealized image of. americans look hostile the deaths that happen every single day this is a history of the usa america. backs geysers financial collapse they say money that the relatives close to jesus this is a central plank support diagram is kind of common right now it's

a stop to. the british and american governments have often been accused of destroying lives in their own interest or you see in this these techniques is the state devising methods to him to essentially destroy the personality of an individual. by scientific. this is how one doctor's theories were allegedly used in psychological warfare against prisoners deemed a danger to the state that was the foundation for the method of psychological interrogation psychological quarter of this year disseminated from within the u.s. intelligence community and worldwide among our allies for the next 30 years and other victims say they still live with the consequences today. don't look forward to talking to. that technology should work for people. i

robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders to conflict with the 1st law show your identification for should be very careful about official intelligence and the point all you see is to create a trust rather than shia. areas chopping with artificial intelligence where something that the. robot must protect its own existence or excuse for the. welcome back to cross up were all things are considered i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're talking about economic recovery and what is normal.

ok let's go back to los angeles by the when we add to what we heard from steve before we went to the break go ahead yeah i really just kind of begs the question over why where steve is now thailand or nations like vietnam china to a large extent where the. virus was reputed to have started have seemingly managed the covert outbreak the pandemic the lockdown measures are so much seemingly more effective than they are transatlantic lee and it just people need to ask more critical questions on that front just really quickly with regard to the economic factors that are being implemented here a rising number of indicators almost certainly spell higher inflation approaching the u.s. federal reserve's even signal that's tolerance for higher inflation yet the age old conundrum involves how did then try and manage that inflation without then triggering a currency destabilization i sense the wider transatlantic banking establishment is about. to perhaps tactically introduce that unstable dollar inflation anyway partly

as means of further greasing wheels for new or replacing digital block chain based global monetary regime while also then conditioning the workforce towards adapting to that digital future that i'm mansions. ok will tell me again what i get what kind i do stay with real people here i mean you all 3 of you who are really super smart ok but you know i want to i'm looking at the fate of the working people with particularly in the western world in europe in the united states i mean are they going to be able to adapt as we just heard from our last guest go ahead thomas. i think that probably a lot of countries around the world are already headed back towards normal like the united states is and again i think you know the lockdowns are something that's preventing them from doing that so if we look at the recent unemployment rates in o.e.c.d. countries a lot of those have already started to decline again back again towards the new normal are towards the previous normal which i think will be you know similar after

we end lockdowns if we look at averages in the o.e.c.d. if we look at the increase from the end of 21000 to the end of 2020 most countries were only up about one to 2 percent which is really not very much a lot of those countries had peaked and then already declining and so what we're seeing right now is that their levels of unemployment are not very different than they were a year ago which were which were pretty good at that time and so you know being up one or 2 percent in unemployment that's not even a serious recession let alone a dire situation that we should be really worried about and so you know again i think that's largely driven by the state of lockdowns and when those things start to go away we will see that the economies recover to their normal pace and a lot of the middle class and especially low skilled jobs will return like they haven't done yet ok steve i mean we keep talking every one level is kind of tiptoeing around the new. normal going back to normal in

a and it's probably why it's probably things inspired me to do this program because i kind of problem with been too because for a lot of people the old normal 'd wasn't very great and as pie is pointed out here i think most people are in agreement the recovery from 2008 was sluggish at best very spotty for some it was just a boon for others it was a absolute catastrophe that they never recovered from so what do we mean by new normal because it again please mention that if it could make a recovery in its is this just a broad acceptance of. income inequality and wealth inequality is it is this what the new normal is accepting that you know will 'd is going to be solvable and then find will see all of them was which is not it will be almost by some trends in credit which couldn't be sustained us for the national process couldn't 2000 and close is fundamentally do pressure humanity's footing on the planet and i see it as

a precautionary measure struck through climate tranche and given how badly it's been managed by most of the world i wouldn't be too pleased to see us to get an atlas major climate changes which a lot to come by in the next one it's. the only you know what if i could be any sustainable model that's going to have to be doing what they call the grants wow the growth ok yes yeah i remember i was with jim rogers and there was that a lot of us stopped doing a asia pacific economic. conference and jim and i were on the i was the moderator there were a few other people here on it and some stole this audience primarily of chinese pie is that the growth and the chinese said no we want the growth you had and then we'll talk about the growth here i don't know if that is really sustainable but i want to touch upon some the great reset here since you know steve has already brought it up is this. segue to the green new deal this crisis because i hear more

and more you know the davos can type of people and then even the new administration is talking this way why john kerry is running at all he was a terrible secretary of state i don't know why he's been promoted to this year is this all about the great reset yeah i mean and people have to look a little bit more systematically at the great reset not just through the glossy world economic forum website or their graphics prepared or how the corporate mainstream media presents them when asked to kind of historically look at longer term planning and with regard to d. growth or any of the concepts there it's interesting to know just even on this network r t glow gold money c.e.o. roy saibai told artie's max kaiser back in september of 2019 that the specter of negative interest rate implementation by central banks signaled rapid population decline decline in order to keep them out of negative yielding money per capita

growing and rewarding the adapting workers those that i referenced would it would be upping their skill sets again that was 6 months before cope with lock downs commenced while the bank of england just told british banks 2 weeks ago to prepare for negative interest rate policy c.n.n. business in london then described as part of the quote unquote new normal i'm just saying people have to think a little bit more critically analytically with monetary history and political history in mind rather than just kind of react to headlines and buzzwords especially from you know appointed. officially appointed. experts in the in the corporate media ok well talking about normal negative interest rate is not normal as far as i know thomas what would that mean. so again i'm going to kind of disagree with. my friend i mean i think the ideas of the great reset are nothing

but terrible for low skilled worker as and low income where i do think i'm so so if we if we look at the period from 2008 to 21000 yes there were several years of low growth which i attribute mostly to faulty policies by the federal reserve but from 2016 to 21000 we saw some of the best growth rates and lows and employment rates in u.s. history we had an a low we had workers being drawn into the economy that were low skilled workers in the lowest ever in unemployment rates among minorities it was amazing growth and good times for the low skilled workers and minorities and that's basically what we're already seeing again in the states in the united states that have opened up and have very low employment rates once that once the other states in their lockdowns i think the large leaf turn turn out the same way and other countries in europe and around the world if they're willing to in these lockdown policies then we're going to see lots of growth and we're going to see people that are at the lower end of the income spectrum having more opportunities in the economy reacts

3500000 people just reported to the government that they've been permanently laid off in the u.s. with $9900000.00 jobs lost since the endemic began the congressional research office last week stated that the coronavirus reduce global economic growth to an annualized rate of down a negative 6 percent in 2020 major advance economies comprising 60 percent of global economic activity are forecast to operate below their potential output level through at least 2024 global trade fell 9.2 percent last year and heavy job losses have been concentrated more intensively in the services sector the waitresses those that need to be onsite where workers have. been unable to work off some 110000000 people globally could enter extreme poverty as a result of cohen's global economic contractions and that's a conservative estimate when asked to ask how much of this was already on the precipice at the least before then forced government lockdowns pushed everything

over the cliff and steve react to that i mean there's you know it's used quite a bit you know never let a crisis go to waste if you want well what if it were to tell us how not to go let this go to waste what would you tell us to do go ahead only for the 1st you know the 5 to see us climate change. and that. we're going to drastically reduce the footprint as one of the major but not the only issue. i'll be using central bank digital currency to bring in a universal credit and creating a parallel currency system that would mean the rich for the ossified is a. level of. emissions now another 0 chance of happening and i think at the same time a pretty much 100 percent chance of us being forced into reducing. for print by the breakdown of the climate if we don't start interesting that we really are wasting across the table tom is what i believe from what you've said on this program here

is that it all we have to do is get the had to make we have lockdowns and then everything will be is be fine like it was bore is that being was i think that the problem is not driven by the virus itself businesses are largely trying to adapt to that the best they can the the problem is the government lockdowns that make it illegal for you to opposite operate a business make it illegal for people to hire new workers that's what's driving unemployment again if we look at states that are locked down versus states that are open that's what's causing a huge divergence in the united states and i think probably also around the world that the numbers that were being cited of you know 3500000 americans unemployed again those are mostly in areas where. the government makes it illegal to work where they say bars and restaurants can't be open where they're making hospitality industry impossible to operate and you know for context 3500000 sounds like a lot but once the u.s. economy is is healthy it creates and destroys more than 4000000 jobs every month

and so even though you know that sounds like a big number it's not a big number once we get back to a normal operating capacity and the only thing that i see that's preventing that is the states that are not allowing businesses to function and operate ok hi i'm going to give you the last 30 seconds go. i mean a real unemployment real unemployment if you're kind of measuring it using methodology prior to 1904 was in the double digits well before you know 2020 and i'm just like i'm just astonished at how polite for lack of a better word the anglo and american populace is the 5 by countries as you were are versus the french the belgians the dutch who are out in the streets because they know their history better i don't really don't have a bit of maybe there's things lacking in their air and water they're really asserting themselves against what they see as kind of

a systematic manipulation and a fly and we're going to have to cut you off here we've run out of time gentlemen i want to thank my guests and we bury them los angeles and bangkok and i want to thank our viewers for watching us here as you see next time remember us the girls. in the 1920 s. and found several 100 african-americans moved to the city bunion and many of their descendants still live in russia. i mean at the risk of i know not rushing for us though up most of us have got. to prove things on us at the child definitional scale back home but i can merican suffered from racism and a complete lack of prospects. is acting up a smug the real. one by elsa store on her by doing. so they decided

to leave everything behind and start a new life in a country about which they knew almost nothing at all and some of the after rear troops who were to serve the united found great crowd. to move a few. we're going to call. you and now almost a 100 years later history is repeating itself my great grandfather george time went to russia. on probably the worst time to go anywhere why not me. when i come here. join me every 1st day on the alex simon shore and i'll be speaking to us from the world of politics sports business i'm show business i'll see you then.

french lawmakers approved an anti separatism bill which critics say would on the ferry target muslims legislation up and running for days in paris. russian scientists about the world's 1st test for the deadly of u.k. strain of growing a walrus that's led to many countries to close their borders we here in the russian lab in the invention well developed under new testing system we kept in mind that if we need to detect other strains we could do it in short periods of time. in the sun grows over the economic impacts facing germany traffic backs up its borders as the e.u. criticizes methods to contain the spread.