once a year or so maybe being away from each other and then we start hearing how we feel about things so i think both on the right in the left there's concern about can i really express how i feel about things going to put things in my email signatures is there going to be you know pushback from my employer on that and certainly there was a piece you had earlier about the tech giants and governments really handed over a lot of the public sphere ideas to tech companies who don't have to meet standards and any regulation that is held over them is almost silly and they're able to get away with either publishing what they want or restricting speech in ways that they want when when really if we were looking at this from a free speech space where the government is involved we say that that was an infringement but it's a tech company they can go ahead and do that and i think that we have to be concerned as very moving forward how we're really going to be reacting to this and if you know dragging us through january event one more time through an illogical

battle rather than the facts of what happened that day has if that's going to help us or not i don't know why we really appreciate you coming on and sharing your insight with thought very difficult topic both sides of the spectrum that was. a professor. at lancaster. finally britain's prince philip has been at mit to toss patel and london buckingham palace says the 99 year old husband of queen that's but this expected to remain and kept several days now prince but up was admitted private london hospital after feeling unwell the palace. his condition is not that 1000 related the prince has of course been hospitalized several times in recent yes he retired from public 202017 i'm rarely a pass and public well that's all from me for today thank you so much for joining us and we hope you have a great day. hello

and welcome to cross talk where all things are considered i'm peter lee well as the covert vaccine is being rolled out it is absolutely necessary to take stock of the economic devastation left in the pandemics wake what is the fate of the working middle class will income inequality continue to greece how will government intervention change the economy and finally does the phrase the new normal mean anything.

to discuss these issues and more i'm joined by my guest on this hogan and great american he is a senior research fellow at the american institute for economic research in los angeles we have piety and he has a corporate strategic planning and independent economic analysts and in bangkok we process steve keen he is a crowdfunding professor of economics on paper as well as a distinguished research fellow of the institute for years strategy resilience and security of university college london all right gentlemen crossed up rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i was appreciated ok let's go to los angeles 1st you know there's a lot of people that talked over the months about him and l. recovery v. recovery dubey oh and none of it's really panned out maybe we don't have enough data and as i said in my introduction they're still rolling out the vaccine and we'll see what the the outcome will be but in your mind in looking at this this saga that we've all gone through what i see we're all arms room still. and what is

the most important significant change the economy has undergone due to this crisis go ahead. well you mention those letters k. comes to mind to repeat only from a case given to me and it's put in fairly tame terms and mainstream or corporate or business media i increasingly interpret that k. to really kind of be a for survival of the fittest kovan 1900 caused an economic shock 3 times worse than the 2008 financial crisis and that's according to entities like i h s market and other banks it's all meant to provide a transition toward with the world economic forum i.m.f. world bank and central banks like to see is a greener eventually khana me one where techno technocratic technologically streamlined skill sets are reintroduced or introduced and with a newly introduced global monetary system on top of it assets across many sectors

will be consolidated mega automation drives implemented in practically every industry population's hawkish li reduced through one means or another and desired productivity measured by ai and internet of things enabled means global economic uncertainty will be stoked in essence in order to then introduce pre-planned technocratic solutions in my viewing of the next 24 to 72 months although wonder economics is considered the gloomy science what you've had to say is quite gloomy i'm afraid let me go to steve here i absolutely agree with what i had to say there probably a whole lot more but there's kind of a wrinkle in all this what about working people do they have a role in this here or are they all supposed to learn code go ahead. well i don't think that the the you know almost to say the financial market is what's going to transfer because a lot of that expectation the other side of cover is been driven by central banks

fundamentally sent by the dimensions to fasten the crossing so you have to disconnect it when asked if it's of the. are comics and by the same time the real economy households but also are actually more small companies than if you were laying a large amount of profit simply because. services with the cash flow that right now up. to the bar and want to keep the government and that mr and also out of profit in america at 10 percent of g.d.p. in the 1st 6 months of 2020 but now that means is when this when this struck out why overlap to see a cost of low profit in human history exceeding even the levels caused by the financial crisis and the good out of that because it hasn't been money borrowed to go on a spending spree to thousands it's been money to survive now and it will be there

so i think we're going to see what i'm going a a slump with no good which is unprecedented i would every other summer has been preceded by and when that happens i didn't work in custody quite as complied as they were back in 2000 and last but that's another rate which will get you here how can you are going to react was numb is the minute they know it's not over this crisis needs the continued growth of monopolies a big one companies like amazon and others like them and we have was never his nation depending on the your destruction of small and medium sized businesses which according to and there's so many estimates are so many questions there are so many of them will not survive here so we this me and ominous needs degree really be the case here because if you're doing all more or less all right when this started you're probably doing more or less all right but if you weren't doing well you're certainly not doing well now. you know i'm going to differ

a little bit in what i think are going to be the long term consequences here because i think the current state of the economy is just not representative of all c. in the long run if you look at the united states we had a terrible recession but we've largely bounce back i mean in q 2 of 2020 we had the worst downturn in economic history a contraction of 31.4 percent bigger than the great depression the unemployment rate was 14.7 percent but by the end of the year it was down to 6.7 percent cut in half back to a normal level and the only thing that was holding it back from going even lower is that a lot of states have lockdowns and business restrictions that prevent businesses from operating and i think when those things go away we're going to see something a lot closer to the normal situation that we had before we'll see a little bit of excel aeration in long term trends like working from home but probably not nearly as much as we're seeing right now. react to that there because the certainly in the workforce is changed dramatically here and also you know what

is what role should the government be playing in this not for the people that were bailed out there you know concierge service for the ridge but i'm talking about middle america here and it's you know the debate is raging now about $2000.00 checks and other kinds of stimulus what kind of stimulus is necessary because when i look at that the fine print of what they're they're discussing almost well very little but has to deal with dealing with this crisis that it's a lot of problems a real tricky accumulated from that is far back as the 1960 s. i mean this is a a great way to clear your biology go ahead by. professor chin kind of referenced what i sense is the increasing futility of government stimulus and. government measures to try and right past wrongs just a comment here the prior guest interesting gets note it's interesting to know global economic growth had already been revised downward in almost. 20 connelly's

in early 2019 is that due to high policy uncertainty ongoing trade tensions and further erosion of business and consumer confidence they dissipate equity markets surging since 2009 actual economic conditions for consumers never fully recovered after the 08 crisis despite what the metrics were listing to the public the coded pandemic is thus simply kind of provided a great excuse for marking to market as it were the true state of the u.s. u.k. and u.k. economies at least then calling further just based on a deeper mandates what are. expected to be carried through for consolidation of assets so we never fully recovered after all wait and cope it is just provided the opportunity for making the unemployment the inflation the real g.d.p. figures a truer to you know who or is there was no impetus for doing so prior you know.

we just heard from buying something in the utility of us. how do you react to that i just agree to disagree on that then if you didn't have government spending now within a minute. because what's happened to you if you have hope russians of individuals 'd or a lot from working and and among those. that still have the financial obligations i rented the previous lesson without the government stimulus we looking at 20 percent unemployment right now those trips vasile you have a pandemic which shut out the essence of capitalism which is. transactions and without the government which can create money at will by running a deficit and doesn't have to borrow money from anybody to do it in fact it creates money by doing that without the government being a. so i think it actually shows the government spending cuts and i think it's one

reason i would say most satisfied to my monitor is the richest are not doing this for the last 20 years i would just are granted the metrics for the truly measuring unemployment are not. they haven't been accurate for decades no necessarily yet you could argue till the. cows come home but you know just reporting people that are recollecting unemployment is vastly unfair considering the swaths of homeless that are seeping into suburban lawns they want me to that they were going to say drastic and it would be even worse far worse for the government testified in the throat and give you no idea that changes invented a 30 percent of g.d.p. injection of my government money i mean a lot in the 1st 6 months of this year now without interruption we'd be talking about a catastrophic situation where gentlemen examine that kind of begs the question here is that me got it momus here is that it's the lockdowns ok it's the lockdowns

the new created this ok i am lame i dead of all has been served i don't really like sending no checks that need go but in this case this gave me bill were told not to work they were not allowed to work and i think they have to be compensated for that but it's really the lockdowns and that is 19 economic activity though. it was a lot of these trends your waiver or this and it now in this would give been enhanced year when honey me because i would prefer to stay away from stimulus but you know i think that the lockdowns were taken to an extreme here of just really destroying a lot of wealth with a lot of wealth in the middle class go ahead it's great so i'm going to agree with you on lockdowns but disagree with the other guests on the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus and so the way that i see it if we look at the united states right now you know we have a 6.7 percent unemployment rate which is a just a little bit above the long term average of 6 percent. but we have a huge diversion between states so we have 8 states that have extremely high

unemployment of 8 percent or more we have 8 states that have extremely low unemployment of 4 percent or less and so the context of those is that either one of those things the high rates of unemployment above 8 percent that's only happened 3 times since the great depression so we're talking about historically high rates and the low rates of less than 4 percent that too has only happened 3 times and then do diversion that is i mean you have this huge division and that due to the lock downs so so of the of the states with the lowest unemployment rates 6 of the 8 are states that are almost totally open of the states with the highest unemployment rate 7 of the 8 are states that have are among the most strict lockdowns so we see this huge dispersion in in economic performance and unemployment because a lot of states are doing great and open and recovered while other states are locked down words literally illegal to run a business and hire more workers and so the lockdowns are the thing that's causing

this difference not problems of the economy i was americans would leave america reversion to see the rest of the on living in a bottle or another to get away from that because actually i could see it all in europe by a sure shot will manage the disasters you gossiping through in europe and america. in this country is going to short out great recently with the news migrant worker as a marker or on. the rest of the go as good as intelligently as scotland is doing you would have an argument of all else one while the other has been badly run by every country on the that is currently making this is suicidal wanted it badly including of course america there is need i'm going to jump in here gentlemen we're going to go to was your breaking up and that's not right we'll continue our discussion on the economy and say. oh.

join me every thursday on the alex salmond show and i'll be speaking to guest on the world of politics. i'm showbusiness i'll see you then. welcome back to cross up where all things are considered i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're talking about economic recovery and what is normal. ok let's go back to los angeles by do you want to react to what we heard from steve before we went to the break go ahead yeah really just kind of begs the question over why where steve is now thailand or nations like vietnam china to

a large extent where the. virus was reputed to have started have seemingly managed the covert outbreak the pandemic the lockdown measures are so much seemingly more effective than they are transatlantic lee and it just people need to ask more critical questions on that front just really quickly with regard to the economic factors that are being implemented here a rising number of indicators almost certainly spell higher inflation approaching the u.s. federal reserve's even signal that's tolerance for higher inflation yet the age old conundrum involves how the then try and manage that inflation without then triggering currency destabilization i sense the wider transatlantic banking establishment is about to perhaps tactically introduce that unstable dollar inflation anyway partly as means of further greasing wheels for newer replacing digital black shame based global monetary regime while also then conditioning the

workforce towards adapting to that digital future that i am much scuse me but it will tell me again what i can what kind i'd like to stay with real people here i mean you all 3 of you who are really super smart ok but you know i want to i'm looking at the fate of the working people particularly in the western world in europe in the united states i mean are they going to be able to adapt as we just heard from our last guest go ahead thomas. i thought. that probably a lot of countries around the world are already headed back towards normal like the united states is and again i think you know the lock downs are something that's preventing them from doing that so if we look at the recent unemployment rates in o.e.c.d. countries a lot of those have already started to decline again back again towards the new normal are towards the previous normal which i think will be you know similar after we end lockdowns if we look at averages in the e.c.b. if we look at the increase from the end of 21000 to the end of 2020 most countries

were only up about one to 2 percent which is really not very much a lot of those countries had peaked and then already declining and so what we're seeing right now is that their levels of unemployment are not very different than they were a year ago which were which were pretty good at that time and so you know being up one or 2 percent in unemployment that's not even a serious recession let alone a dire situation that we should be really worried about and so you know again i think that's largely driven by the state of lockdowns and when those things start to go away we will see that the economies recover to their normal pace and a lot of the middle class and especially low skilled jobs will return like they haven't done yet ok steve i mean we keep talking every one level is kind of tiptoeing around the new normal going back to normal i mean and it's probably why it's probably things inspired me to do this program because i kind of problem with been too because for a lot of people the old normal wasn't very great and if pious pointed out and i think most people make rayman the recovery from 2008 was sluggish at best very

spotty for some it was just a boon for others it was absolute catastrophe but they never recovered from so what do we mean by new normal because it again please mention if it's the big tehrik obery and it's this just a broad acceptance of. income inequality and wealth inequality. is it is this what the new normal is accepting that you know will is going to be use of awful and then finally all of them was which is not it will be almost by some trends in credit which couldn't be sustained us for the national process couldn't 2000 and i actually code is fundamentally do the pressure humanity's footing on the planet and i see it as a critique of us now we're going to start from climate trench and given how badly it's been managed to go i wouldn't be too pleased to suggest that i've got an atlas those major climate changes which

a lot to come by in the next one it's. the only you know what if i could be any sustainable model that's going to have to be doing what they call 'd the krauts wow the growth ok yes yeah i remember i was with jim rogers and i was it a lot of us stopped doing a asia pacific economic. conference and jim and i were although i was the moderator there were few other people here on it and some stole this audience primarily of chinese pie is that d. growth and the chinese said no we want the growth you had and then we'll talk about the growth here i don't know if that is really says they nibble but i want to touch upon some the great reset here since you know steve has already brought it up is this is a segue to the green new deal this crisis because i hear more and more you know the davos can type of people and then even the new administration is talking this way why john kerry is running at all he was

a terrible secretary of state i don't know why he's been promoted to this year is this all about the great reset yeah i mean when people have to look a little bit more systematically at the great reset not just through the glossy world economic forum website or their graphics prepared or how the corporate mainstream media presents them when asked to kind of historically look at longer term planning and with regard to d. growth or any of that come. there it's interesting to know just even on this network r.t. glow gold money c.e.o. roy saibai told artie's max kaiser back in september of 2019 that the specter of negative interest rate implementation by central banks signaled rapid population decline decline in order to keep them out of negative yielding money per capita growing in rewarding the adapting workers those that i referenced would it would be upping their skill sets again that was 6 months before cope with lock downs

commenced while the bank of england just told british banks 2 weeks ago to prepare for negative interest rate policy we would c.n.n. business in london then described as part of the quote unquote new normal i'm just saying people have to think a little bit more critically analytically with monetary history and political history in mind rather than just kind of react to the headlines and buzzwords especially from you know appointed. officially appointed. experts in the in the corporate media ok well talking about normal negative interest rate is not normal as far as i know thomas what would that mean. so again i'm going to kind of disagree with. my friend i mean i think the ideas of the great reset are nothing but terrible for low skilled worker as and low income where i do think i'm so so if we if we look at the period from 2008 to 21000 yes there were several years of low growth which i attribute mostly to faulty policies by the federal reserve but from

2016 to 21000 we saw some of the best growth rates and lows and employment rates in u.s. history we had an it low we had workers being drawn into the economy that were low skilled workers in the lowest ever in unemployment rates among minorities it was amazing growth and good times for the low skilled workers and minorities and that's basically what we're already seeing again in the states in the united states that have opened up and have very low employment rates once that once the other states in their lockdowns i think the large leaf turn turn out the same way and other countries in europe and around the world if they're willing to in these lockdown policies then we're going to see lots of growth and we're going to see people that are at the lower end of the income spectrum having more opportunities in the economy. 3.5000000 people just reported to the government that they've been permanently laid off in the u.s. with 9900000 jobs lost since the endemic began the congressional research office last week stated that the coronavirus reduce global economic growth to an

annualized rate of down a negative 6 percent in 2020 major advance economies comprising 60 percent of global economic activity are forecast to operate below their potential output level through at least 2024 global trade fell 9.2 percent last year and heavy job losses have been concentrated more intensively in the services sector the waitresses those that need to be onsite where workers have. been unable to work off some 110000000 people globally could enter extreme poverty as a result of global economic contractions and that's a conservative estimate when asked to ask how much of this was already on the precipice at the least before then forced government lockdowns pushed everything over the cliff and steve react to that i mean there's you know it's used quite a bit you know never let a crisis go to waste if you want well what if it were to tell us how not to go let

this go to waste what would you tell us to do go ahead only for the 1st you know the 5 to see us climate change. and that. we're going to drastically reduce the footprint as one of the major but not the only you should. be using social and digital currency to bring in a universal credit and creating a parallel currency system that would mean that the rich for the answer face a. level of. emissions now another 0 chance of happening and i think at the same time a pretty much 100 percent chance of us being forced into reducing. for print by the breakdown of the climate if we don't start interesting that we really are wasting across ok well thomas and i believe what you've said on this program here is that it all we have to do is get the had to make we have lockdowns and then everything will be is be fine like it was bore isn't being used but i think that the problem

is not driven by the virus itself businesses are largely trying to adapt to that the best they can the problem is the government lock downs that make it illegal for you to opposite operate a business make it illegal for people to hire new workers that's what's driving unemployment again if we look at states that are locked down versus states that are open that's what's causing a huge divergence in the united states and i think probably also around the world that the numbers that were being cited of you know 3500000 americans unemployed again those are mostly in areas where. government makes it illegal to work where they say bars and restaurants can't be open where they're making hospitality industry impossible to operate and you know for context 3500000 sounds like a lot but once the u.s. economy is is healthy it creates and destroys more than 4000000 jobs every month and so even though you know that sounds like a big number it's not a big number once we get back to a normal operating capacity and the only thing that i see that's preventing that is the states that are not allowing businesses to function and operate ok hi i'm going

to give you the last 30 seconds go but i mean a real unemployment real unemployment if you're kind of measuring it using methodology prior to 1904 was in the double digits well before you know 2020 and i'm just like i'm just astonished at how polite for lack of a better word the anglo and american populace is the 5 by countries as you were are versus the french the belgians the dutch who are out in the streets because they know their history better i don't really don't have a bit of maybe there's things lacking in their own water they're really asserting themselves against what they see as kind of a systematic manipulation and a fly and we're not going to have to cut you off here we've run out of time gentlemen i want to thank my guests and rick perry from los angeles and bangkok and i want to thank our viewers for watching us here argues the next time remember us the girls.

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