we cannot manufacture the basic foundational components of the 21st century economy we are literally taking ourselves out of the game by throwing the case to the economy to private equity groups wall street. financier's and money pressures and now it's too late. hello and welcome to cross talk we're all things are considered i'm peter limbo as the covert vaccine is being rolled out it is absolutely necessary to take stock of the economic devastation left in the pandemics wake what is the fate of the working

middle class will income inequality continue to decrease how will government intervention change the economy and finally does the phrase the new normal mean anything. to discuss these issues and more i'm joined by my guest almost hogan and remember you can he is the senior research fellow at the american institute for economic research in los angeles we have piety and he has a corporate strategic planning and independent economic analysts and in bangkok we process steve keen he is a crowdfunding professor of economics on paper as well as a distinguished research fellow of the institute for years strategy resilience and security of university college london originally cross uk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i was appreciated ok let's go to last century. you know there's a lot of people that talked over the months about n.

and l. recovery the recovery wu and none of it's really panned out maybe we don't have enough data and as i said in my introduction they're still rolling out the vaccine and we'll see what the the outcome will be but in your mind in looking at this this saga that we've all gone through what i see we're all arms room still. and what is the most important significant change the economy has undergone due to this crisis go ahead. well you mention those letters k. comes to mind to repeat only from a case given to me and it's put in fairly tame terms and mainstream or corporate or business media i increasingly interpret that k. to really kind of be a for survival of the fittest kovan $1000.00 caused an economic shock 3 times worse than the 2008 financial crisis and that's according to entities like i h s market and other banks it's all meant to provide

a transition toward with the world economic forum i.m.f. world bank and central banks like to see is a greener eventually khana me one where techno technocratic technologically streamlined skill sets are reintroduced or introduced in with a newly introduced global monetary system on top of it assets across many sectors will be consolidated mega automation drives implemented in practically every industry population's hawkish li reduced through one means or another and desired productivity measured by ai and internet of things enabled means global economic uncertainty will be stoked in essence in order to then introduce pre-planned technocratic solutions in my viewing of the next 24 to 72 months although wonder economics is considered the gloomy science what you've had to say is quite gloomy i'm afraid let me go to steve here i absolutely agree with what i had to say there

probably a whole lot more but there's kind of a wrinkle in all this what about working people do they have a role in this here or are they all supposed to learn code go ahead. well i don't think that the the you know almost to say the financial market is what's going to trust because a lot of that expectation the other side of cover is been driven by central banks fundamentally sent by the dimensions to the process so you have to disconnect it when assets pockets of the. and by the same time the real economy to house calls but also for actually more small companies i mean if you are letting a large amount of private debt simply because our services with the cash flow that right now therefore all over the bar and want to keep the government and that mr nelson out of profit in america at 10 percent of g.d.p. in the 1st 6 months of 2020 but now that means is when this when this struck out of

the way it will add up to see ostler flow profit in human history exceeding even the levels caused by the financial process and the good out of that because it hasn't been money borrowed to go on a spending spree to thousands it's been money to survive. and it will be there so i think we're going to see what i'm going calling a a slump with no good which is unprecedented and with every other slump it has been very safe and when that happens i don't think working class can be quite as complied as they were back in 2000 blacks that's another rate which will get you here how can you are going to react was numb is the minute they know it's not over this crisis needs the continued growth of monopolies a big one companies like amazon and others like them and we have was never his nation depending on the sec you're destruction of small and medium sized businesses which according to and there's so many estimates are so many questions here are so

many of them will not survive here so we this me an ominous needs degree really be the case here because if you're doing all more or less all right when this started you're probably doing more or less all right but if you were doing well you're certainly not doing well now. you know i'm going to differ a little bit in what i think are going to be the long term consequences here because i think the current state of the economy is just not representative of all c. in the long run if you look at the united states we had a terrible. all recession but we've largely bounced back i mean in q 2 of 2020 we had the worst downturn in economic history a contraction of 31.4 percent bigger than the great depression the unemployment rate was 14.7 percent but by the end of the year it was down to 6.7 percent cut in half back to a normal level and the only thing that was holding it back from going even lower is that a lot of states have lockdowns and business restrictions that prevent businesses from operating and i think when those things go away we're going to see something

a lot closer to the normal situation that we had before we'll see a little bit of excel aeration in long term trends like working from home but probably not nearly as much as we're seeing right now. react to that there because the certainly in the workforce has changed dramatically here and also you know what is what role should the government be playing in this not for the people that were bailed out there you know concierge service for the ridge but i'm talking about middle america here and it's you know the debate is raging now about $2000.00 checks and other kinds of stimulus what kind of stimulus is necessary because when i look at that the fine print of what they're they're discussing almost well very little of it has to deal with dealing with this crisis that it's a lot of problems a real tricky accumulated from that is far back as the 1960 s. i mean this is a a great way to clear your biology go ahead. professor king kind of referenced what i sense is the increasing futility of government stimulus and you know government

measures to try and right past wrongs just a comment here the prior guest interesting it's note it's interesting to note global economic growth had already been revised downward in almost all g 20 connelly's in early 2019 as that's due to high policy uncertainty ongoing trade tensions and further erosion of business and consumer confidence they . equity markets surging since 2009 actual economic conditions for consumers never fully recovered after the 08 crisis despite what the metrics were listing to the public a coded pandemic is thus simply kind of provided a great excuse for marking to market as it were the true state of the u.s. u.k. and u.k. economies at the least while then calling further just based on a deeper mandates what are. expected to be carried through for

consolidation of assets so we never fully recovered after all wait and hope it is just provided the opportunity for making the unemployment the inflation the real g.d.p. figures truer to you know who are as there was no impetus for doing so prior you know. we just heard from buying something in the utility of us. how do you react to that as a secret i disagree with the head then if you didn't have the government spending now within a minute. because what's happened to you is going to be difficult russians of individuals 'd are a lot of cash from working and when those cash flows. i still have a financial obligations i rented the previous. without government stimulus we looking at 20 percent unemployment right now suskind illustrates gospel you have

a pandemic which shut down the essence of capitalism which is trast transactions and without the government which can create money at will by running a deficit and doesn't have to borrow money from anybody to do it in fact it creates money by doing that without that endowment being a hall so i think it actually shows the government spending and i think that's one reason i would say yet most satisfying to my monitor is your interest in arguing this allows 20 use i would just are granted the man. tricks for the truly measuring unemployment or not. they haven't been accurate for decades no necessarily yet you could argue till the cows come home but you know just reporting people that are recollecting unemployment is vastly unfair considering the swaths of homeless that are seeping into suburban lawns. that that it's never going to say drastic and it would be even worse far worse for the government to. give you no idea that changes

event of a 30 percent of g.d.p. injection of my government money i mean a lot in the 1st 6 months of this year now without interruption we'd be talking about a catastrophic situation where gentlemen examine that kind of begs the question here is that me got it moments here is that it's the lockdowns ok it's the lockdowns the new created this ok i am i the devil is observant i don't really like sending no checks that need go but in this case this gave me bill we're told not to work they were not allowed to work and i think they have to be compensated for that but it's really the lockdowns and that is 19 economic activity though a happening right now was a lot of these trends your wave or this and it now in this would give been enhanced year when hunting me because i would prefer to stay away from stimulus but you know i think that the lockdowns were taken to an extreme here of just really destroying a lot of wealth but a lot of wealth in the middle class go ahead it's great so i'm going to agree with

you on lockdowns but disagree with the other guests on the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus and so the way that i see it if we look at the united states right now you know we have a 6.7 percent unemployment rate which is a just a little bit above the long term average of 6 percent but we have a huge diversion between states so we have 8 states that have extremely high unemployment of 8 percent or more we have 8 states that have extremely low unemployment of 4. or less and so the context of those is that either one of those things the high rates of unemployment above 8 percent that's only happened 3 times since the great depression so we're talking about historically high rates and the low rates of less than 4 percent that too has only happened 3 times in the diversion that is and you have this huge division that due to the lock downs so so of the of the states with the lowest unemployment rates 6 of the 8 are states that are almost totally open of the states with the highest unemployment rate 7 of the 8

are states that have are among the most strict lockdowns so we see this huge dispersion in and economic performance and unemployment because a lot of states are doing great and open in recovered while other states are locked down where it's literally illegal to run a business and hire more workers and so the lockdowns are the thing that's causing this difference not problems of the economy i was americans would leave america reversion to see the rest of the on living to deliver them to get away from that because actually i could see it all in europe and by a sure shot will manage. the salsas you also been through in europe and america. in this country is going to short out great recently with news modern word is a marker are on that oil so that way if the rest of the go as good as intelligently as scotland was doing you will have an argument of all else one while the other is being badly run by every country on the oh that is currently making this is

suicidal once and didn't add including of course they're going to need i'm going to jump in here gentlemen we're going to go to with your break in now that's your break we'll continue our discussion on the economy as they. made human beings to make chips or beat. birds because what was lost varies a little there's going to be more an easy mode really washing your. why should we use force the boy time just because major 000000000 s. of the new brain why don't we get shoes but. we are now at a point where we cannot manufacture the basic foundational components of the 21st century economy we are literally taken ourselves out of the game by throwing the keys to the economy to private equity groups wall street.

financier errors and money pressures and now it's too late. welcome back to cross up where all things are considered i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're talking about economic recovery and what is normal. ok let's go back to los angeles by the when we add to what we heard from steve before we went to the break go ahead yeah i really just kind of begs the question over why we're steve is now thailand or nations like vietnam china to a large extent where the. virus was reputed to have started have seemingly managed the covert outbreak the pandemic the lockdown measures are so much seemingly more effective than they are transatlantic lee and it just people need to ask more

critical questions on that front just really quickly with regard to the economic factors that are being implemented here a rising number of indicators almost certainly small higher inflation approaching the u.s. federal reserve's even signal that's tolerance for higher inflation yet the age old conundrum involves how did then try and manage that inflation without then triggering a currency destabilization i sensed the wider chance of landing banking establishment is about to perhaps. tactically introduce that unstable dollar inflation anyway partly as means of further greasing wheels for new or replacing digital block chain based global monetary regime while also then conditioning the workforce towards adapting to that digital future that i'm mansions. took it will tell me again what i get what kind i do stay with real people here i mean you all 3 of you who are really super smart ok but you know i want to i'm looking at the fate of the working

people with particularly in the western world in europe in the united states i mean are they going to be able to adapt as we just heard from our last guest go ahead thomas. yeah i think that probably a lot of countries around the world are already headed back towards normal like the united states is and again i think you know the lockdowns are something that's preventing them from doing that so if we look at the recent unemployment rates in o.e.c.d. countries a lot of those have already started to decline again back again towards the new normal are towards the previous normal which i think will be you know similar after we end lockdowns if we look at averages in the o.e.c.d. if we look at the increase from the end of 21000 to the end of 2020 most countries were only up about one to 2 percent which is really not very much a lot of those countries had peaked and then already declining and so what we're seeing right now is that their levels of unemployment are not very different than they were a year ago which were which were pretty good at that time and so you know being up

one or 2 percent in unemployment that's not even a serious recession let alone a dire situation that we should be really worried about and so you know again i think that's largely driven by the state of lockdowns and when those things start to go away we will see that the economies recover to their normal pace and a lot of the middle class and especially low skilled jobs will return like they haven't done yet ok steve i mean we keep talking every one level is kind of tiptoeing around the new normal. going back to normal in a and it's probably why it's probably things inspired me to do this program because i kind of grapple with been too because for a lot of people the old normal wasn't very great and as pie has pointed out here i think most people in agreement the recovery from 2008 was sluggish at best very spotty for some it was just a boon for others it was a absolute catastrophe that they never recovered from so what do we mean by new normal because it again and please mention that if it's the big cave recovery in

it's is this just a broad acceptance of. income inequality and wealth inequality is it is this what the new normal is accepting that you know will 'd is going to be solvable and lantana will see all of them was which is not it will be almost by some trends in credit which couldn't be sustained us for the national process couldn't 2000 and code is fundamentally do pressure humanity's footing on the planet and mostly as a precautionary measure struck through climate tranche and given how poorly badly it's been managed to go i wouldn't be too pleased to suggest that i'm not going to happen with this major climate changes which a lot to come by in the next one it's. the only new normal if i could be any sustainable model it's going to have to be do what they call the rights wow growth ok yes yeah i remember i was with jim rogers and there was that

a lot of us stopped doing a asia pacific economic. conference and jim and i were on the i was the moderator there were a few other people here on in sums told this audience primarily of chinese pie is that the growth in the chinese said no we want the growth you had and then we'll talk about the growth here i don't know if that is really sustainable but i want to touch upon some the great reset here since you know steve has already brought it up is this is a segue. to the green new deal this crisis because i hear more and more you know the davos can type of people and then even the new administration is talking this way why john kerry is running at all he was a terrible secretary of state i don't know why he's been promoted to this year is this all about the great reset yeah i'm in and people have to look a little bit more systematically at the great reset not just through the glossy world economic forum website or their graphics prepared or how the corporate

mainstream media presents them when asked to kind of historically look at longer term planning and with regard to d. growth or any of the concepts there it's interesting to know just even on this network r t glow gold money c.e.o. roy saibai told artie's max kaiser back in september of 2019 that the specter of negative interest rate implementation by central banks signaled rapid population decline decline in order to keep them out of negative yielding money per capita growing in rewarding the adapting workers those that i referenced would it would be upping their skill sets again that was 6 months before cope with lock downs commenced while the bank of england just told british banks 2 weeks ago to prepare for negative interest rate policy c.n.n. business in london then described as part of the quote unquote new normal i'm just saying people have to think a little bit more critically analytically with monetary history and political

history in mind rather than just kind of react to headlines and buzzwords especially from you know appointed. officially appointed. experts in the in the corporate media ok well talking about normal negative interest rate is not normal as far as i know thomas what would that mean. so again i'm going to kind of disagree with. my friend i mean i think the ideas of the great reset are nothing but terrible for low skilled worker as and low income where i do think i'm so so if we if we look at the period from 2008 to 2019 yes there were several years of low growth which i attribute mostly to faulty policies by the federal reserve but from 2016 to 21000 we saw some of the best growth rates and lows and employment rates in u.s. history we had an it low we had workers being drawn into the economy that were low skilled workers in the lowest ever unemployment rates among minorities it was

amazing growth and good times for the low skilled workers and minorities and that's basically what we're already seeing again in the states in the united states that have opened up and have very low employment rates once that once the other states in their lockdowns i think the large leaf turn turn out the same way and other countries in europe and around the world if they're willing to in these lockdown policies then we're going to see lots of growth and we're going to see people that are at the lower end of the income spectrum having more opportunities in the economy reacts 3500000 people just reported to the government that they've been permanently laid off in the u.s. with $9900000.00 jobs lost since the endemic began the congressional research office last week stated that the coronavirus reduce global economic growth to an annualized rate of down a negative 6 percent in 2020 major advance economies comprising 60 percent of global economic activity are forecast to operate below their potential output level

through at least 2024 global trade fell 9.2 percent last year and heavy job losses have been concentrated more intensively in the services sector the waitresses those that need to be onsite where workers have. been unable to work off some 110000000 people globally could enter extreme poverty as a result of covens global economic contractions and that's a conservative estimate when asked to ask how much of this was already on the precipice at the least before then forced government lockdowns pushed everything over the cliff and steve react to that i mean there's you know it's used quite a bit you know never let a crisis go to waste if you want well what if it were to tell us how not to go let this go to waste what would you tell us to do go ahead only for the 1st you know the 5 to see us climate change. and that. we're going to drastically reduce the footprint as one of the major but not the only should. be using central bank

digital currency to bring in a universal credit and creating a parallel currency system that would mean that the rich for the answer face a. level of. emissions now another 0 chance of happening and i think at the same time a pretty much 100 percent chance of us being forced into reducing. for print by the breakdown of the climate if we don't start interesting that we really are wasting across ok well thomas and i believe from what you've said on this program here is that it all we have to do is get her house that had to make we have house lockdowns and then everything will be is be fine like it was bore is that being was i think that the problem is not driven by the virus itself businesses are largely trying to adapt to that the best they can the problem is the government lockdowns that make it illegal for you to opposite operate a business make it illegal for people to hire new workers that's what's driving unemployment again if we look at states that are locked down versus states that are

open that's what's causing a huge divergence in the united states and i think probably also around the world that the numbers that were being cited of you know 3500000 americans unemployed again those are mostly in areas where. the government makes it illegal to work where they say bars and restaurants can't be open where they're making hospitality industry impossible to operate and you know for context 3500000 sounds like a lot but once the u.s. economy is is healthy it creates and destroys more than 4000000 jobs every month and so even though you know that sounds like a big number it's not a big number once we get back to a normal operating capacity and the only thing that i see that's preventing that is the states that are not allowing businesses to function and operate ok hi i'm going to give you the last 30 seconds go. i mean a real unemployment real unemployment if you're kind of measuring it using methodology prior to 1904 was in the double digits well before you know

2020 and i'm just like i'm just astonished at how polite for lack of a better word the anglo american populace is the 5 i countries as you were are versus the french the belgians the dutch who are out in the streets because they know their history better i don't really don't have a bit of maybe there's things lacking in their air and water they're really asserting themselves against what they see as kind of a systematic manipulation they fly and we're going to have to cut you off here we've run out of time gentlemen i want to thank my guests and rick perry from los angeles and bangkok and i want to thank our viewers for watching us here argues the next time remember us uk rules. imagine picking up a future textbook on the early years of the 21st century what are the chapters cold

gun violence school shootings homelessness 1st it was my job it was my feeling was my savings i have nothing i have nothing it is not like i don't try i look for resources i look for jobs i look for everything i can to make this house. in oil and doing this. the road to the american dream paved with did refute its this very idealized image i want. americans to look pasta at the depths that happen every single day this is a history of the usa by america. in the 1920 s. and found several 100 african-americans moved to the city. union and many of their descendants still live in russia. going at the risk because they know no rush but us the up of stuff yes it got worse are going things on their way. back home

black american suffered from racism and a complete lack of prospects. not the smug that he'll be a loser and show them one by else a store on the by doing. so they decided to leave everything behind and start a new life in a country about which they knew almost nothing at all some of the american reared who were through during the night. found great secret. lulay adolph you were going to call. you and now almost a 100 years later the history is repeating itself my great grandfather george time went to russia. on probable worst time to go anywhere why not me. when i come here.

i go back. to the unrest across spain over the jailing of catherine ruff a pablo sell the 9 month sentence for insulting the royal family and glorifying independence terrorism in his tweets. and some of the world's largest chocolate producers face accusations of child trafficking and forced labor we hear disturbing testimony. and piece of biker yoko were not given any free both are visible scars from machete accidents. adults court declares the country's code curfew illegal ruling ministers misused emergency powers. and israel's prime minister propose.