to discuss these issues and more i'm joined by my guest mark allman in oxford he is the director of the crisis research institute and in budapest we have joints i mean well he's a podcast or at the gavel which can be found on you tube and gentlemen crossed up rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate it ok let's go to mark 1st in an oxford continuity in change that's what we always look at when a new administration comes in and we see a lot of continuity and change. only on the rhetorical side of things we hear we hear that the all the biden mr asian is essentially going to back away from saudi arabia's genocidal war against yemen but he says it will continue to support the sovereignty of saudi arabia and we we on the 1st day of the biden ministration we have troop movements from iraq into syria so that tells us what's going on here just a couple days ago nato has made it very clear that it's going to up its. troop level training level in iraq of course we have be dealing with iran the administration

doesn't seem to know which direction it wants to go but certainly it is anti russia and china and that is just the top bullet points go ahead mark. i think the interesting thing is that during the trump years. former biden officials for obama officials often accused him of spending all his time simply trying to wipe out the legacy obama lost as it was the trump foreign policy and maybe today we're seeing the most sense by this trying to undo everything that tom did so that for instance all the it's as you say true to say that in the. in the saudi question he is pursuing a rather ambivalent course because yes he's saying we would like the war now meant to stop us we're going to stop providing certain types of support for the war effort but on the other hand we support the saudi state but he also explicitly allowed his spokesman to say i'll only be dealing with the king of saudi arabia he's my count on. not the crown prince and similarly he waited

a month before he spoke to benjamin netanyahu in israel now both the crown prince of saudi arabia and the promise from israel were very close interlocutors with donald trump so what we might be seeing is also a discredited in the electoral terms because elections coming from israel of netanyahu the americans by the new american especially who can say a different coalition will be called without netanyahu but also perhaps more striking we in the way by began his period of president and some of the boma did with regard to mubarak in egypt remember i'm sure they have to because president obama very demonstrably met members of the muslim brotherhood when he gave a speech in the car university and in a sense signaled that the united states was no one with totally behind mubarak and what happened to him and i think the issue may be that as we are sitting through the months of be with us from the 10th anniversary of the so-called arab spring back in 2011 in our states may now be the sense saying we need to see big changes in saudi arabia. you know but you dismiss me kind of begs the question george i

mean mark is absolutely right no between you said but i think i'm very weary of just personalizing boerum policy ok because the country's interests don't change very rarely change dramatically with a different leader and and see seabirds naisi journalist and lazy policy makers a rocket if you can the prince but you're still dealing with the radio ok the energy going to. wave you're absolutely right i think not because it was something that there is an attempt on the part of the biden people to us every single thing that the trump of been astray should did and i think that that's a good point about saudi arabia 1 1. you see the same see in the case though russia and china if you look at. biden's speech at the. munich security conference as well as these. beach at the state department he is

really really venomous towards russia. you know they would say it's just one condemnation of for another week is pretty much labeling russia as and then we have the united states that it is determined to destroy the power and influence of the united states and its allies and when it comes to china 1. it's a much more much softer approach you know china is a competitor. and what yes it does talk about on car on the ins on the best i don't place china as just a competitor of the at the moment and you don't think it's really interesting here is that it seems to me and you and i have known about this many times and has russia this is this is russia gate absolutely leading into boerum policy because he's and this is a domestic issue in the united states mint and then with china will you have the n.b.a. and you have disney and it's so much more complicated because his comments about china where i mean not just buzzy it was muddled i mean i really didn't know what

kind you. want to make me go back to market but this is an administration that is nick's listed lead time russia and china to gather as competitors adversaries even enemies in the case of russia this is something and an incoming administration has never done before go ahead yes i mean the sudden a big contrast with the time of obama is of course there is no cause for the reset so there's nothing offered on the contrary the so-called new cold war seems to be getting much cooler all the time. it's true to say that for instance with china because of all the you can only conclude can still find new preservation of the trump parasites also fall it's very difficult and i says really to decouple from china without actually having to think about spending a huge amount of money domestically on on reviving the production of finding other sources but the the real question is who is this point for national interests remaining the same even if. people in charge change but the congress the who

interprets these things and i think one of the issues perhaps in washington more than say in other states is the degree to which national interest in international relations is perceived through the domestic rivalries and resentments because partly. been very fortunate in the sense that it hasn't really faced the problem of having neighbors that can attack it or cause it trouble so to a great extent foreign policy has been much more a matter of internal rivalries and often scoring points over your domestic. future ones too that said. as you say the c.p.h. into the political culture of the belief that not only is russia or malign fools but the russia has in some sense some deep demonic powers able to influence develop a sense of it is such a profound cultural shift that it's going to be very difficult to us to escape from that and that of course pushes russia in trying to together we see all sorts of

areas now military cooperation much more quickly cooperation economic factors infrastructure linkages between russian energy and china and so one of these things are going to be very difficult to reverse the americans complain all the time about the north stream pipeline between russia and germany bypassing the central european states and how that creates a long term strategic shift well of course in the far east and biggest strategic sense is taking place and then i say this is in a sense the promoter of it because most of these 2 states together is a mutual sense that they're under pressure from the americans of the other doesn't our states feels itself in the relative decline. risks lashing out and this is of great interest in the in american intellectual circles of discussion of it is china of the new imperial germany is it like bill holmes germany challenging britain at the end of the ice you know the press entry but in many ways as the great american historian said he would fear that our states was more like bill homesickness germany than it rivals. you know you know george the being is the human eye

on a bold over the years you know that ne ne the sometimes there's questioning but reform policy was you know you know we have to we will avoid this growing alliance and home between russia and china and have done everything in their policy to push them together and then we then we at the burying in the waning days of the trumpet ministries need the european union with great haste i would say assigned in a huge investment deal with china and so you know when bae goes to munich and you know or speaks community is a we're back in once people say what is that means you because it means something different to us because as you and i had said many times that you know europe must decide but no it's going to be a player on the world scale or not or it's going to happen. yes yes that's exactly right and when you get the sort of the europeans to say ok we

want that we don't like trump trump was very rude to us. great at us you know he's rude very rude you know you know he just was very dismissive and that wasn't the soothing flattering way that you get in these transatlantic conflict so when they get biden back and he said well i am america's back 6 but what is by offering your is if offering yet more of these interventionist wars and they look they look at what he's doing in the middle east in particular in syria where he is now. massively increased american military presence syria now is building a 2nd base in syria now nato is increasing its presence in iraq so they what they europe is getting from america is bad is you know military escapades in the middle east which as we saw it back in the obama years. as

a blowback effect on europe through the massive migration flows but just going back to the interest of the national interest well what crumbly is did is he identified a specific american national interest which was to rebuild the american industrial economy i mean whether it's feasible or not is a different issue but that was nonetheless his agenda that america should become once again an industrial powerhouse as it was back in the 1950 s. and sixty's and for that he wanted to shift. america's manufacturing industry back to the united states biden has identified anything of that nature when whenever he talks about america's national interest he teach talking about values rather use has nothing to do with national interest i mean they just. becomes of the justification for pointless interventionist wars you know or it or it's a budget line print diversity but again that still addressing the domestic audience

here you know when mark won it one of the things that i find very interesting is that i look at the obama administration's foreign policy with the exception of iran which we'll talk in the 2nd part of the program is basically a failure or a failing grade ok but even seems to me that they just want to put it back in super charge again i mean they doesn't seem to be any kind of critical analysis some of the mistakes made during the obama administration and weaknesses and coming to terms with the consequences about foreign policy joe biden just like george st bernard talk about about the use them policy go ahead yeah i think it's worth mentioning afghanistan as well as iraq because george mentioned that we're seeing in a sense just a return to what was going before and in the same saying that there's a kind of attrition we can sustain relatively trivial losses for western side i mean it's also been supported by the europeans i think it's worth mentioning that as the macro made the most extraordinary statement in his speech to the conference when he congratulated joe biden on discussing things in his speech which he. why

the battle was brief so that it was going to talk about the middle east about iraq and afghanistan or he was trying to make a point that the emphasis on russia and china as the 2 big boat. was not really what the or penalized wanted they want to see as the war on terror continued they see. afghanistan and he called nato support for iraq and also in syria as being a danger in terms of. they're going to get it was not recommending that you know. were more politicized than ever or more polarized than ever the 21st century when speed is measured in megabytes per 2nd.

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but i was reasonable when. the beginning of the changing of the guard. handing the baton off to china as the number one economy in the 21st century the numbers are there the statistics are there their relationships in your here. or there the relationship with russia and iran is there you know there are. shipped all over africa is also. forward to talking to. people. must obey the orders given by human beings except when it conflicts with the 1st law. or should be very careful about official intelligence and the point is.

to. protect its own existence. well a month across not where all things are considered. we're discussing foreign policy . we would go back to mark you know it's very you were trying to make a point before we went to the break going. to continue the balkans in afghanistan and iraq the middle east in general because they see these areas of instability as causing for. there are certain your course

one might think we say but there are all sorts of reasons for the 1st lesson or one for the house and bathroom having been involved until you were pin nato allies in these places in the muslim world it seems to me that you know i think sometimes we get to know much about why hospital it seems to mean that they there is very very strong best. interest in these a nato member countries the red lanterns it's ok i mean there again this is what they do in an i wouldn't i would make the argument that they do it where you know if you're going to be going to focus on nigeria or is them in these countries you know you could get them before they come to us night mentality we're just giving them oxygen to exist to get you mentioned it seems to me that that's one of the lessons that would have been learned on the so-called war on terror and you know if nato were to bocas that separate zone border control immigration control and nightmare as in that sense i think that's a good mission in actually it is in the national entrance to get going north and

you're not you're going to go that's exactly right because that should be nato is primary mission which is securing the borders of its member states to show up security for the healer paean people living in europe but that's not what nato does i mean they do justifies its existence but. stoking up threats and getting involved in a variety of conflicts overall nobody asked nato to get involved in libya about that was there was a war of choice nato decided to get involved in libya nato got itself involved 'd in iraq to go to itself involved in syria got involved 'd in afghanistan now all of these things have brought has brought any kind of security to europe which is the again the ostensible justification for me. and now with its

with its constant drumbeat of hostility toward russia again it is not bringing any kind of security to europe because it only leads to confrontations a very you know which could get quite gnostic. in the baltics and in the in the black sea so because of the whole nato will it's actually creating. security threats that it. claims to be the solution to war but of course it isn't so so that when you're saying is that they they're doubling down on a mistake ok instead of realizing it was them then you know their new policy is justified to alleviate the mistake that was originally made. that that's exactly right so. they way they way they justify their existence is by exacerbating threats and then 'd they say well wait things are worse we need nato bad because otherwise

you know horrific things will happen you know we have to fight them over there that before they come over here you know mark in with much fanfare in the in the in the national security council but the by mr ation it kind of rolled it out is that in the is going to the asian desk and bureaus have a much more higher profile much more many more resources and all this but you know again i think that they're trying they're looking at and this is not just a bite but i mean ever since the end of the cold war is that you know is that they somehow can replicate a nato elsewhere which they haven't had much success in doing and and i can see that you know apart nato germany and france one of the great reconciliations of our time that's when wonderful but i don't i don't see the same thing being replicated in asia and i can't see how the the south koreans and the chap unease in the australians in the v.m. mini's look bill if you know are going to act. in the in the in the quite same way

nature when it during its heart in original creation all the way up to the present go ahead mark. we can see point with that for instance japan and south korea are allies of the united states but they are deeply suspicious of each other and we could see for instance over issues like me and well today japan is not a little anxious to get involved in. the intel it has of am i right no wrong that's just a huge difference and so we're kind of cohesion that the grades that you had in nato were plans as of old over 70 years you have a very powerful glance the state like britain is one of the key members and so you don't really have a tool that trying to involve for instance india and japan of us other countries in a alliance raises all sorts of questions because if you have the classic just occasionally it was that it was to stop being attacked where there is a wall the danger that you get involved with states that do territorial disputes over one quarter of a joining nato was that you were supposed to have any territorial disputes so that

you couldn't have a councils by the just waiting to be true that suddenly we can see concrete that on the korean peninsula between india and china there are all sorts of potential for conflict and you then say would all these other states necessarily want to sign up to be dragged into a conflict which to them is a long way away and it's very meaningless and also would unfold with china which is also such an economically important partner so even though countries like the philippines want to protect. privacy they don't necessarily want to get involved in a prolonged cold war with china because it's an economic importance and you know you know georgia the the real issue here is it it's really i always find the kind of curious to the point of being hilarious about you know america in protecting american national interest when there's no there's no real country in the world seriously threatens the united states i mean if you want to talk about nuclear power china russia well then they would be destroyed again the whole issue of man will be in play here so but really what it is. and going back to your original

comment about munich as you know binds us were bad but we want you to back our hegemony and maintain our gemini and that's what they're saying to their our allies in asia do we want you to come on board to maintain i want our gemini ok and not everybody wants to be part of that deal anymore but particularly in asia where you know people are you know all these fanatics like my decoupling from china well that's going to be american business is going to have to decide that are even less the government wants to get involved in that which i doubt very seriously as good that's why joe joe doesn't speak very clearly about these issues but there is decoupling going on a lot of it a asian companies are moving away from the internet is these are moving to china because that's where they see the future being played out here so it seems to me it's a fool's errand you know to say oh we're back we're going to be nice we're going to be courteous but we want you to get in line to protect what we define is our interests the international system is far more complex no real cold war is over

a long long time ago and that was ideological this isn't yes that's exactly right. and this box set i mean there was the original rationale for nato there was supposedly a. a soviet threat that people forget nato actually predates the warsaw pact of the west there was at least the rationale that you know the russians were going to do were army there were early on there on the other but it became you know after the end of the cold war it became much harder to justify 1 an 8 as existence so that when nato the purpose was to exert us hegemony over europe some say well in death for all you have to continually escalate the various threats that europe faced and why nate it was necessary so we originally have instead of the threat from instability and instability. will lead to humanitarian

crisis that will lead to refugee flows therefore nato has to be there to stop instability then we have the global war on terror again well we have terrorists we have to fight them over there on the other before they come over here so. you know it was back to russia so we know we have to sort of the cold war ducks russia is this this huge threat so it's always a matter of trying to justify the existence of this entity which has absolutely no justification. and somehow talking up some nonexistence threat and they they're doing this. with in asia and they're really nobody is because any you you have here you have to start from scratch with with nato the united states was lucky because it was already there in existence you could just sort of keep it going through the danger of inertia but in asia they would have to

started from scratch and nobody's going to want to do it and then no one in the united states wanted to precisely because we don't want to get involved in a war between india and china between philippines and china so the good if there are a few takers for a nation they know where george already mentioned it but i think it's really important here in atlanta look at how mainstream media the main broadsheets how they describe warm under all and ministrations you know over the last few decades that it's all it's marry him bone it's all it's very value driven i mean you we just having a few days ago in the new york times to low octane writers talking about no they have on the west now it's the great. alliance against me and my democratic force and the china and russia and all that which are you know it sounds all nice and bind but that doesn't again go back to what no small interest might not always point out to people. the great alliance the defeated naziism are not

a very different players and while they're not alone and they have one goal and they the cheap history when turned out differently but you know he's constantly playing on his bow you know i mean you know about fighting for gay rights in thailand recently when we're going to go to war or that we're going to go to war bird immersed city you know when. it does the top point makes a lot of sense because what people when you get really down to you and you wouldn't want to have military spending a possible conflict over trying to change the balance use and someone else somewhere else or had i think he won again big contrast with the other cold wars rightly or wrongly there was a perception of a big ideological threat that communism had as it were a great some throwing in support base that if you didn't challenge and so by the way who didn't improve the economic conditions of ordinary people it might well be interaction there isn't an ideological conflict note that i don't see any sign that there's anywhere in europe with us states where people are saying if only we could be like china. it's gone. the other side is however the same values can be

aggressive those us well these moralistic values of supporting. us to the also i think a more likely source of conflict is the emphasis on climate change an environment which a big issues but most of us how do you persuade people or do you force people to adult. 8 environmental policies and you can see for instance part of the bowl sonora a kind of a simple zille is the sense the brazilians have been told that they should do things which would affect the global climate now it may be that cutting down the amazon is having a disastrous effect on the global climate but you can see how around the world is a sense that the rich west is trying to save its own skin by forcing poor countries southern hemisphere countries into line over the forces and willing to actually use force because we're talking a referee who won't. bring up that's a very interesting hoping for a separate program well yes. you know. he was watching as your are member.

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