blunt welcome to old apartment mikhail gorbachev one of the most recognizable politicians of the 20th century has celebrated his 90th birthday this past week and while his legacy still remains the subject of hot ideological debates it's puzzling that his brainchild perestroika was unsteady more carefully by social scientists what happens to system when it reaches its structural limits this question is just as pressing for capitalism today as it was for socialism some 40 years ago genndy experience of this obvious collapse of for any celebration for the bursting at the seams capitalist system well to discuss that i'm now joined by a look at professor of social research and public policy at new york university abu dhabi and call author of das capitalism have a future professor though again it's good to talk to you thank you very much for

your time thank you you know it never ceases to amaze me how that perception of a book may change with time and i think yours is a good example because when it was 1st published 7 years ago it caused quite a stir i think it was back with some a position if not indignation but when i read it some day in the midst of all big changes brought forth by the call it magic condemning i cannot find a single controversial coined in it isn't it striking how the discourse on capitalism sheens just in the last 5 or 6 years. was predictable still it is striking a little we spray can get when you see this happening in social the most difficult or it is not predicting the trend it is predicting the speed 20 years ago we got together with several great. major actually historical society religious

who study. the development of social evolution since attention most of what they mean you know so all historical systems are going to extinct so we study a warrant do the systems arise and how do they come up and look we've all noticed that in economics for instance you know there is not even if the read of the decline of capitalism you know there's something going touchable because capitalism always overcomes fits crisis not so well in fact you know if you are caught terrorists grendel collins and emanuel are set off a mason publicized circles for having predicted the and all that the the saudi puny and all the way back in the 1970s but when they started saying that capitalism is also approaching its its advantage structurally that it was perceived as almost an ideological betrayal isn't that because that many people in the west see a chapter as more than just an economic system as something that is

a much much bigger perhaps even sacred ideology it is a major blinder in social science. it's ever present and of course you know people using a might favorite example is the charles darwin to old school or century to share his theory with the rest of society because he was a good english country gentleman. because kid just understood that if he tells you know his fellow churchgoer so no originate from monkeys you know he will never be able to go to the church again you know so there will proprietors of the moment and vegas was. as in the $1007.00 just it was almost impossible to discuss collapse of communism because it would be considered crazy you know president reagan was competing on catching up and no containment of communism so he

says this is quite normal it's predictable and human reactions are going through all of this now in your book you wrote that something big was looming on the horizon in the early 201113 maybe meaning ad structural crisis much bigger than the great recession a sense that we've had some jolt 'd here and there a bet that a major global recession didn't sat in and still the. law will come down make iraq i'm still waiting for that big something or has it already arrived without us not noticing it. oh i wish i could answer that question and you know i got to be a prophetic i don't know you know it's a very much a structural process. so we predicted the fundament one of us raise the issue you know so what if and you play happens and it's

a we were sitting around the table discussing our book so it is they are in the conclusion so what about the war well look if nuclear war happens and we do believe it no the defaults are actually much greater than in the trenches century with a inevitable proliferation of nuclear weapons. what happens if the area is a new disease and these are what we called him on the rebels it's an it's extremely difficult to ponder however it's a very much like the fashionable topic of climate in history. it doesn't strike us all somehow it always strikes this is ideas which are already weakened by something and we see in this weakening mostly in the western cooler not necessarily in the whole world system you know because jobs have been leaving the west industrial good industrial jobs and social guarantees but they were going

somewhere so they were going mostly in asia and we see a much more assertive china now and turkey this is where the jobs are weapons and the question therefore it should be. struck surely no so once these are enchant empires very proud of themselves empires there are forget will they've been. so what happens with these asian powers that be in grief late hit by this migration of capital should we expect another bout of world wars because this is usually what happened historically so we'll look into history and we try to understand what caused. another unique warse because these are rare occurrences and why do we have to go so deep in history because we really don't have another planet to study you know so we have one humanity. and we don't have met many comparative case of signal so capitalism is something quite unique and that's why it is actually very

difficult to make predictions from capitalism. is comparable only to later roman empire not even mentioned imponderables earlier and i want to bring out one more of them the american cell with the last couple of decades have been pretty liberal with that money press but if we look at the data from last year it's pretty am precedented they empty you measure an indicator of the total supplying off dollars has increased by almost a quarter it's already eaten trillion dollars such a rapid growth has never happened before or at least not in recent history i know you are not an economist but do you think it has any. relation to the main thesis self of your book which is the crisis of capitalism or yes. joe on. the great get done and you go on you missed the dight. injuries i think

they naturally had you know then we started writing. it you know just and himself of course coming from a very old capitalist family in milan. and he give notice to know that there are a very long cycle in a secular cycles when one of capitalists worse surges. ahead of others they become the track layers but in the so very much like then is gina and florence in the renaissance italy once we're there we will wonder if you know who bait for me to lunch will unfold a renaissance somebody paid for these the expensive who paid for rembrandt for me or you know them you know the bottom process tool the netherlands and then british empire but what happens with british empire by that it war of the end times so it's kind of in a. calm before collapse we had that in the night and ninety's in america now that will allow these powers when they fall out it's no longer possible to

invest into productive. expansion they invested into finance they were under to speculation so it generally lombardy americans. into 17 from driggs the british and late victorian we do argue an age you know and then the united states after the crisis of the 1970s you know shift into finance can go on for quite a while and in fact it is amazing for how long the united states could juggle it well into the crisis here tonight in 7 minutes and be underneath all that surprising because it's not only the american currency but it's also the members or friends have their well so socks m.c.i. having their breasts but afghanistan you correctly that you're essentially see that as these large cities on the eve of a out of a major disaster when an ad people are trying to get as much as they can just

because they have a fielding side of things collapse and pretty soon. i am very afraid you know because historically this was always a result in a big war. you know this is. very much like we're playing very sophisticated 3 dimensional chess and at some point you reach for a break and hit your opponent you know that's how it happened you know with just one catholic warse that's how it happened with the boy and it warps with the rise of hitler in germany so this is why you know we do have reasons to worry we might hope you know that this will be a voided that's why we were raising alarm because very much like the collapse of soviet you know there are 3 big events and in modern history which could not be predicted because they were ridiculous the prospect looked ridiculous it was the world will one. because nobody really can see that what would happen if you deploy

a soldier and machine guns on so i could be in so-called machine guns because this was always done against zulu warriors school do so got these drugs. french revolution no serious french politician would could ever ever accepted that somebody like coldest year could become leader of the country and when we deplete it was going to rebel and the collapse of soviet union because again you know so that was the rebel even. disorganized themselves that saved russia you know because russia crash land it it wasn't plunder but i'm feeling it actually happened president we got to take a very short break but we will be back in just a few moments. are.

we. hurried up. turning on engines own room down saddam hussein don't tell you that i'm talking to the hotel there on the stand on the on the bus on the other vehicle in its own zones only girls install small talk on managing dolorous cars and all the ones around the world the live up to us all morning as a song is as old as old as it all to us are the.

welcome back to worlds apart with your good at all again professor of social research and public policy at new york university ended up being a whole does capitalism and have a future professor dahl again before the break we were talking about some of the signs. pointing to these structural weaknesses of the capitalist system and one mentioned the expansion in the currency mass a lot of experts mention it to logic down mation as a direct outcome of this grill strive for a profit i think there is one more example which is far more immediate and i would

cite the american experience with the call at 19 condemning because i think. one of the reasons why this country particularly was struck so heart much. much more strongly than other nations is because of the very formidable account of the american nations which i personally attributes you a combination of to drive and marketing policies over the last 50 or 60 years. but just enormous rates of obesity and various made of all the diseases but then the population now that's my opinion do you see any correlation between the american experience of the call that 19 and a south values or assumptions on which american capitalism app has been operating. thank you arsenal you know you just help me explain why it is that there should also complicates it because there are so many shows and site shows growing calls

sunil danielle slim which one you choose for analysis so it's very much like play in late medieval europe black death in this certain filters so was a dream really complicit in the end of european feudalism it was and didn't anyway . let me tell you know that we believe that there are us and we global trends which are meta gate against capitalism you mentioned one of them into our mental digger dacian however usually if this is discussed in government very moralistic 10 are bad that capitalism greedy and therefore if we become less greedy you know ever ever sink will be all right greed is not capitalism and there is no american capitalism there is only global it has always it been global 500 here and there are 3 things if you're like me know through a lease that there are costs 500 years ago might sure if your people in the world

looked essence they produce their own food you didn't have to think about their old age because they either died or they had their families to take care of them no you have to have social welfare environment you didn't care about how many dreams your child doll well the 1st time it's happened since the 1960 s. ago that we do care and wore a living in various planets and many trees left them in that they've not been more and more like you suddenly not a natural reaching there tellin it. well because there is one planet it's not that capitalism is fully i'll move to the social and environmental cost of it there is even a concept of i think it's political antics ation you know a special tax on goods and services that that produce negative effects analogous you know if i die means to the side even though it was always very difficult to accurately calculate that damage but apart from that do you think there is any

other at south correct that correcting mechanism within catalyst which will prevent it from becoming a snake eating its own tail affair of course consuming everything else sounded this is where we should have started what is capitalism because this is not just market because the market to gone amiss ever existed before capital is no longer go i could tell you a lot about a syrian traders in the 19th and 20th century b.c. and they were very good at least equal rave you know that and there will be important market to call them is there were a village fair where you know read great french historian fair or not bald then the oldest. do shoemaker and the fisher cannot make much profit simply because they have face to face interacting in the same village you

know they are exchanging used values epochal isn't is a bolt dropped and so it's about profit making so my question actually lived a profit making under signal across it making our social profit making 5 proconsul profit i don't know whether it's actually you know some of there is some so ask yourself will capitalism be still profitable so this is with aggression that we close of you know after all the self-correcting taxes after wheat factory in everything else you know too much taxation. with this ruling griffiths when jamie's multinationals enter the global market will this ruling breath that was going to say i think i can be a devil's advocate here because we're not just. talking about taxation if you're talking about the let's say national business maybe there is an issue of perfectibility but when you look at the transnational corporations they're raking in norma's amounts of money you know m p $3.00 tax them

a little bit more they will still be profitable by very very high margin and i think this is actually don't you think that this is this kind of debate that you know increasing taxes is bad for business will make capital is not profitable is actually something that serves don't read very well because they're making a lot of money out of our private data out of things that they don't well they create you know and as such huge resources into it and the it in the amounts of profit that they're getting from all of that cost is enormous and has never been like that into human history so is it only about taxation doesn't that actually challenge your. your thesis that capitalism would not be profitable if you tax it you highly i mean there are different kinds of capitalist i guess well you know profits historically and not believe you're

a far right they became hard and we have data on don't you know so there are quite a few historically call them a sinner who did. taxes became serious between world war one. and in 1000 seventies you know why you know because. there were world wars there was a threat of communism and there was a threat of fashions and it was better to pay off this is why social democracy like scandinavian social democracy became possible so profitability him yes you know they can sucker fice some of the profits you know the capitalists might be scared you know but look what scare that so that's the question today what happened in the 1970 s. in a white taxation window the berlin to ration of all sure of this to nations now because this is going to open secret every book well governments in the world have enough capacity to learn where the money is there is no political will why there is

no political will you know because that's how the politics function since the 970 s. globalization was essentially an escape from taxation. you know escape into safe havens and escape into cheap brother action basis in asia somewhere that's all you know so that's why you know you leave behind the western workers. they become not the workers but welfare recipients you can send them to school for ever you know which as you see what is happening you know so many students there you can even drama's them are guaranteed income so that they don't rebel but they will vote for populists as a result so these are all various verify mean a system in a time and again i'm coming back to rome and buy bread and circuses because that's the only president we have now let me mention of him when my term beach i promised

our viewers in the beginning and we haven't talked about that. yet there is a strike on iran he complained before in some other ancient you with some regret i guess that. that phenomenon hasn't been static very carefully. i social science in structural terms and not i'm mad not in memoirs non non not an ideological trance but in terms of structural analysis why do you think that's important and do you think if the golfer and is not a solution then at least understanding why the cattery system is not dealing with it that's a very good question and also the question is posed you know so rest assured to know that there are people asking bit. i was once maybe several years ago i was asked to fly to on the european very nice capitals babe a business class i agreed because i ask you know what the conference is

a bolt and they told me in response the usual seat. ok so that's really going to become interesting so i find myself in a nice kind of medieval wrist a library a restyled with glass and still today on the one side of the table prominent experts on the collapse of soviet union on the other side of the table the men who and their women and introduce themselves as call me hasn't i was going to bet well i'm advising the prime minister of my country you know that was all you know so they wanted to see with that there was anything to be learnt from the collapse of soviet union so that the european union could be more secure i don't think these were obsessed directly because they were different creatures however i know that there is a very basic realisation in you know the elites can mess up so i mentioned already

french revolution who a more sophisticated than the french political elites in the age and central hundreds of years of experience in court intrigue and in diplomacy and yet they don't log for the french revolution because they never imagined it happens and the same with the soviet union you know i never expected to be a professor in a american university and speaking english now. but this happened in the elites can mess up do not trust the good judgments of elites you know they might be very intelligent let me at nasa be a little bit more specifically in that question because here you wrote in your book that whatever transformation. calculus may take it will definitely not result in c. of the fortress type of mentality of the soviet union and if they look around it well it's hard not to come to

a conclusion that this is already happening in that they call it making it seem conscious 1st. behaving very selfishly in securing supplies and now sort of reverting to self-sufficiency economic self-sufficiency predicated on the need to provide for that own citizens i know it's not common isn't but if you really looks like everybody is for themselves for now much more so than i bet you with imagine that when you were writing your book so. again i know you cannot say that for sure but in terms of intuition which way do you think this system and the capitalist system will go because right when you talk about the end of capitalism it's sounds very political but both you and i understand that nothing disappears forever and the soviet union didn't disappear if it gave birth to russia as may know it today so what for i. think that transformation will take based on the chance that you can

already absurd there always disagree possibilities and only 3 possibilities in social i mean. one is extinction you know number 2 also 6 to you know there are quite a few human societies which are extinct. i don't think it's going to that it could happen you know because look you describe picture of a reaction to call it done demick. their allies how similar it is to the great depression of 929 and the rise of fascism and go after the ration of a war in the 19th thirty's and thus white communism in the soviet union was actually not an ideological obstruction you take over immediate 3 mobilization machinery from world war one and the rest will flow you know including good luck including propaganda secret police so their route to help us ability is a no one as your goal to a next stage something more more complex and let me come back to these later and

you can get stuck it's cold involution this same only smaller so in many respects actually russia is kind of involuted soviet union minus communist ideology but it's still sending oil it still has nuclear weapons. number 3 as go into next stage so i mentioned you know that in the beginning capitalism. was actually cost free because there were dozens and dozens took care of themselves the biggest problem is internalization of costs over production social reproduction you have to pay for schools. for retirement something which was done by naturally and by billets communities you also have to pay for environmental reproduction. these are all costs so the question is what kind of organisation globally can bear such a cost and there is no such organisation in sight that it will take no global

problems must have global solutions and we don't have anywhere in sight how all this happens typically in history some kind of earthquake must happen 1st and then as the russians say you know music's start to cry stunning themselves and something may change so we're coming to go present we have to leave it there but thank you very much for sharing it with them today. thank you for watching next week and all the part.

during the vietnam war u.s. forces also bombs neighboring laos it was a secret war. and for years the american people did not know. until our. country per capita. millions of unexploded bombs still in danger lives in this small agricultural country jordyn we don't know how it's happening. even today kids in laos full victims of bombs dropped decades ago is the u.s. making amends for the tragedy and. help to the people need in that little land on.

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