blunt welcome to old apartment me girl gorbachev one of the most recognizable politicians of the 20th century has celebrated his 90th birthday this past week and while his legacy still remains the subject of hot ideological debates it's puzzling that his brainchild perestroika was unstudied more carefully by social scientists what happens to system when it reaches its structural limits this question is justice pressing for capitalism today as it was for socialism some 40 years ago kennedy experience of this soviet collapse offer any salvation for the british sitting at the seams capitalist system well to discuss that i'm now joined by a look at professor of social research and public policy at new york university abu dhabi and call author of das capitalism have a future professor though again it's good to talk to you thank you very much for your time thank you you know it never ceases to amaze me how that perception of

a book may change with time and i think yours is a good example because when it was 1st published 7 years ago it caused quite a stir i think it was back with some a position if not indignation but when i read it today in the midst of all big changes brought forth by the call it mentioned condemning i cannot find a single controversial point in it isn't it striking how the discourse on capitalism changed just in the last 5 or 6 years it was predictable still it is striking a little we spray can get when you see this happening you see. the most difficult or it is not predicting the trend is predicting the speed 20 years ago we got together with several great. major actually the historical society religious who study. the development of social evolution since attention most of what they

may are you know so old historical systems are going to extinct so we study will do the systems arise and how do they come up and look at all notice that in economics for instance you know there is not even if the read of the decline of capitalism you know there's something going touchable because capitalism always overcomes bits crisis not so well in fact you know if you are caught terrorists grandel collins and emanuel are set a famous and publicized circles for having predicted the and to all that the the saudi puny and all the way back in the 970 s. but when they started saying that capitalism is also approaching it's its advantage structurally that it was perceived as almost an ideological betrayal isn't that because that many people in the west see a chapter as more than just an economic system as something that is

a much much bigger perhaps even sacred ideology it is a major blinder in social science. ever present and of course you know people because they know my faith favorite example is the charles darwin to old school or century to share his theory with the rest of society because he was a good english country gentleman. because kid just understood that if he tells you know his fellow churchgoer so no originate from monkeys you know he will never be able to go to the church again you know some there will proprietors of the moment and vegas was. as in the $1007.00 just it was almost impossible to discuss collapse of communism because it would be considered crazy you know president reagan was campaigning on catching up with no containment of

communism so he says this is quite normal it's predictable and human reactions are natural this now in your book you wrote that something big was looming on the horizon in the early 201113 maybe meaning ad structural crisis much bigger than the great recession a sense that we pass until here and they are that a major global recession didn't sat in and still be. well condemning iraq i'm still waiting for that big something or has it already arrived without us not noticing it. a little i wish i could answer that question and i know i got to be prophetic i don't know you know it's a very much a structural process. so with predicted the fundament one of us raise the issue you know so what if and you blake happens and so we are sitting around the table

discussing our book so it is they are in the conclusion so what about the war well look if nuclear war happens and we do believe it no the defaults actually much greater than in the trenches century with the inevitable proliferation of nuclear weapons. what happens if the area is a new disease and these are what we called him on the rebels it's an insecure steamy difficult to ponder however it's a very much like the fashionable topic of climate in history. it doesn't strike on its own somehow it always strikes this is ideas which are already weakened by something and we see in this weakening mostly in the western cooler not necessarily in the whole world system you know because jobs have been leaving the west industrial good industrial jobs and social guarantees but they were growing

somewhere so they were going bolstering asia and we see a much more assertive china now and turkey this is where the jobs are weapons and the question therefore it should be. struck and also once these are enchant empires very proud of themselves empires there are forget well they've been. so what happens with these asian powers that be in grief late hit by this migration of capital should we expect another bout of world wars because this is usually what happened historically so we'll look into history and we try to understand what caused. an awful unique warse because these are rare occurrences and why do we have to go so deep in history because we really don't have another planet to study no so we have one humanity. and we don't have meet many comparative cases signal so capitalism is something quite unique and that's why it is actually very difficult to make predictions from capitalism. is comparable only to late roman empire

not even mentioned imponderables earlier and i want to bring out one more of them the american cell with the last couple of decades have been pretty liberal with that money press but if we look at the data from last year it's pretty am precedented they empty you measure an indicator of the total supplying off dolorous has increased by almost a quarter it's already at 18 trillion dollars such a rapid growth has never happened before or at least not in recent history i know you are not an economist but do you think it has any relation to the main thesis self of your book which is the crisis of capitalism or yes. joe on. the great get done and you go on you missed the dight. it was i think they

naturally had you know then we started writing. it you know just and himself of course coming from a very old capitalist family in milan. and he give notice to know that there are a very long cycle in a secular cycles when one of capitalists worse surges. ahead of others they become the track layers but in the so very much like then is gina and florence in the renaissance italy once we're there we will wonder if you know who bates what we could under will unfold a renaissance somebody paid for these little expensive who paid for rembrandt for their mere you know them you know the bottom process tool the netherlands and then british empire but what happens with the british empire by that it war of the end times so it's kind of in a. calm before collapse we had that in the 990 s. in america now that will allow these powers when they fall out it's no longer

possible to invest into productive. expansion they invested into finance they were under to speculation so it generally lumbar be a merchants. into 17 hundreds the british and late victorian we've already an age you know and then the united states after the crisis of the 1970s you know shift into finance can go on for quite a while and in fact it is amazing for how long the united states could juggle it well into the crisis here tonight in 7 minutes and beyond and that's all that surprising because it's not only the american currency but it's also the members or friends have their wealth so socks m.c.i. having their breasts but afghanistan you correctly that you're essentially see that as these large cities on the eve of a out of a major disaster when people are trying to get as much as they can just because they have a fielding side of things collapse and. i am very afraid

you know because historically this was always a result in a big war. you know this is. very much like we're playing very sophisticated 3 dimensional chess and at some point you reach for a brick and hit your opponent you know that's how it happened you know with just one catholic warse that's how it happened with napoleon it warse with the rise of hitler in germany so this is why you know we do have reasons to worry we might hope you know that this could be a voided that's why we were raising alarm because very much like a collapse of the soviet era there are 3 big events and in modern history which could not be predicted because they were ridiculous the prospect looked ridiculous it was the world will one. because nobody really can see that what would happen if

you deploy a soldier and machine guns on so i could call the machine guns because this was always done against zulu warriors school do sudanese tribesmen or. french revolution no serious french politician would could ever ever accepted that somebody like yeah or become leader of the country and we deplete it was going to rebel and the collapse of soviet union because again you know so that was the revolt even pull. the soviets themselves i thought saved russia you know because russia grassland it it wasn't plunder but i'm still it actually happened president will get me to take a very short break but we'll be back in just a few moments. and

so that's a bad day for them. if they pay them is going to. about the him i'm going to be obviously to let them do so. frankly got to. get back yet not just the types to use upon each one the pockets i mean the. mom i'm going to have as a plus it's my least been the. you type and feel good in the interviews i'll go to the gym with them but again i was on the. welcome back to well department you're good at all. professor of social research and public policy at new york university ended up being

a whole. capitalism would have a future professor down again before the break we were talking about some of the signs. pointing to the structural weaknesses of the capitalist system and one mentioned the expansion in the currency mass a lot of experts mention it to logic graham ation as a direct outcome of this drill strive for a profit i think there is one more example which is far more immediate and i would side the american experience with the call it 19 condemning because i think. one of the reasons why this country in particular was struck so hard much. much more strongly than other nations is because of the very formidable account of the american nations which i personally attributes you a combination of who drive in marketing policies over the last 50 or 60 years.

because the norm is rates of obesity and various made of all the diseases but then the population out that's my opinion do you see any correlation between the american experience of the call that 19 and estat of values or assumptions on which american capitalism app has been operating. thank you arsenal you know you just help me explain why is it actually all so complicated because there are so many shows and site shows growing call single danielle slim which one do choose for analysis so it's very much like a plague in late medieval europe black deaths in this certain filters so was a dream really complicit in the end of european feudalism it was ending anyway. let me tell you know that we believe that there are us and we will trends which are meta gate against capitalism you mentioned one of them into our mental digger

a dacian however usually this is discussed in government very moralistic 10 are bad bad capitalism greedy and therefore if we become less greedy you know ever ever sink will be all right greed is not capitalism and there is no american government as there is only global it has always it been global fight from truth here and there are 3 things if you're like me know through a lease that there were costs 500 years ago my jury of people in the world wept essence they produce their own food you didn't have to see their old age because they either died or they had their families to take care of them no you have to have social welfare environment you didn't care about how many trees your child doll well the 1st time it's happened since the 1960 s. and know that we do care and wore

a living community spent so many trees left i mean that they've not cited it in more and more looks like you suddenly have a natural reaching there tellin it. well because there is one planet it's not that capitalism is fully i'll move to the social and environmental cost of it there is even you know the concept of i think it's political antics ation you know a special tax on goods and services that that produce negative effects analogous you know it's a dominance to the side even though it was always very difficult to see accurately calculate the damage but apart from that do you think there's any other at south correct that correcting mechanism within catalyst which will prevent it from becoming a snake eating its own tail a share of course consuming everything else accent and this is where we should have started what is capitalism because this is not just market because the market to gone amiss ever existed before capital was no longer go i could tell you

a lot about a syrian traders in the 19th and 20th century b.c. and they were very good at least equal rave you know that and they were importing more to be called them as they were village fair where you know read great french historian fare not all then the boldest. do shoemaker and the fish or can not make much profit simply because they have face to face interacting in the same village you know they are exchanging used values epochal isn't is a bolt dropped so it's a bold profit making so my question actually lived profit making under signal cross it making our social profit making 5 proconsul profit i don't know whether it's actually you know since there is some so ask yourself will capitalism be still profitable so this is with aggression that we close of you know after all these

self-correcting taxes after wheat factory in everything else you know too much taxation. well this ruling griffiths when jamie's multinationals are the global market will this ruin breath that was going to say i think i can be a down's advocate here because we're not just talking about taxation if you're talking about the let's say national business maybe there is an issue with perfectibility but when you look at the transnational corporations they're raking in norma's amounts of money you know m p $3.00 tax them a little bit more they will still be profitable by very very high margin and i think this is actually don't you think that this is this kind of debate that you know increasing taxes is bad for business will make capital is not profitable is actually something that serves don't read very well because they're making a lot of money out of our private data out of things that they don't well they

create but you know then that is such huge resources into it and the it in the amounts of profit that they're getting from all of that cost is enormous and has never been like that into human history so is it only about taxation doesn't that actually challenge your. your thesis that capitalism would not be profitable if you tax it you highly i mean there are different kinds of capitalist i guess well you know profits historically and not believe you're a far right they became hard and you have data on dr no so they were quite a few historically call them a sinner who did. taxes became serious between world war one. and in 1000 seventies you know why you know because. there were world wars lead was a threat of communism and there was a threat of fashions and it was better to pay off this is why social democracy like

scandinavian social democracy became possible so profitability him yes i know they can sucker fice some of the profits and the capitalists might be scared you know but look what scare that so that's the question today what happened in the 1970 s. and a white taxation window the berlin to ration of all sure of this to nations now because this is going to open secret every book well governments in the world have enough capacity to lure him where the money is there is no political will why there is no political will you know because that's how the politics function since the 970 s. globalization was essentially an escape from taxation. you know escape into a safe havens and escape into cheap brother action basis in asia somewhere that's all you know so that's why you know you leave behind the western workers. they

become not the workers but welfare recipients you can send them to school for ever you know which as you see what is happening you know so many students there you can even drama's them are guaranteed income so that they don't rebel but they will vote for populists as a result so these are all there is fear if i mean a system in a time and again i'm coming back to rome and buy bread and circuses because that's the only president we have now let me mention of land when my term b.g. i promised our viewers in the beginning and we haven't talked about that. yet there is a strike on iran he complained before in some other ancient e.u. west summer of radagast that. that phenomenon hasn't been static very carefully. by social scientists in structural terms and not in matt not in memoirs non non not in ideological terms but in terms of structural analysis why do you think that's

important and do you think if we offer and if not solution then at least understanding why the capitalist system is now dealing with it that's a very good question you know so the question is posed. you know so rest assured i know there are people asking it. i was once maybe several years ago i was asked to fly to on the european very nice capitals babe a business class i agreed because i ask you know what the conference is about and they told me in response you shall see. ok so that's really going to become interesting so i find myself in a nice kind of media will resist a library a restyle with gloss and still today on the one side of the table prominent experts on the collapse of soviet union on the other side of the table the men who and their women and introduce themselves as call me handle it i was doing back well

i advising the prime minister of my country you know that was all you know so they wanted to see with that there was anything to be learnt from the collapse of soviet union so that the european union could be more secure i don't think these were obsessed directly because they were different creatures however i know that there is a very basic realisation in you know the elites can mess up so i mentioned already a french revolution who owe more sophisticated than the french political elites and the 8 and central hundreds of years of experience in court intrigue and in diplomacy and yet they allowed for the french revolution because they never imagined it happens and the same with the soviet union you know i never expected to be a professor in a american university and speak in english now. but this happened in the elites

can mess up do not trust the good judgments of elites you know they might be very intelligent let me add my has to be a little bit more specifically in that question because here you wrote in your book . whatever transformation. catalyst may take it will definitely not resolved into the fortress type of mentality of the soviet union and if you look around it well it's hard not to come to a conclusion that this is already happening i mean it because it makes you have seen countries 1st behaving very selfishly in securing supplies and now sort of reverting to self-sufficiency economic self-sufficiency predicated on the need to provide for that own citizens i know it's not communism but if you really looks like everybody is for themselves for now much more so than i bet you with imagine

when you were writing your book so. again i know you cannot say that for sure but in terms of intuition which way do you think this system and the capitalist system will go because right when you talk about the end of capitalism it's sounds very political but both you and i understand that nothing disappears forever and the soviet union didn't disappear if it gave birth to russia as may know it today so what for i. think that transformation will take based on the traffic the general radio apps are there always siri possibilities and all new 3 possibilities in social and. one is extinction you know number 2 also takes to you know there are quite a few human societies which are extinct. i don't think it's going to that it could happen in a because look you describe picture of a reaction to call it done demick. their allies how similar it is to the great

depression of 929 and the rise of fascism and go after the ration for war in the 1930 s. and thus why communism in the soviet union was actually not an ideological obstruction you take over immediate 3 mobilization machinery from world war one and the rest will flow you know including good luck including propaganda secret police so they are out to help us ability so no one has your goal to a next stage something more more complex and let me come back to this later and you can get stuck it's cold involution this same only smaller so in many respects actually russia is kind of involuted soviet union minus communist ideology but it's still sending oil it still has nuclear weapons and it's number 3 as go into next stage so i mentioned you know that in the beginning capitalism. was actually

cost free because there were dozens and dozens took care of themselves the biggest problem is internalization of costs over production social reproduction you have to pay for schools. for retirement something which was done by natural really good by village communities you also have to pay for environmental reproduction. these are old costs so the question is what kind of organisation globally can bear such a cost and there is no such organisation in sight and it will take no global problems must him global solutions and we don't have that anywhere in sight all this happens typically in history some kind of earthquakes must happen 1st and then as the russians say you know start to cry stunning themselves and something may change so we're coming to get professor we have to leave it there but thank you very much for sharing it with us today. our pleasure and thank you for watching

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in the stories you shake the way care or not a setback here becomes the late 69 countries to get russia sputnik the vaccine is the bulk struggles to get his own vaccination program off the ground meanwhile russia plans to complete a hotrod of homegrown vaccines the latest cold a new vaccine is expected to be launched later this month we speak to the head of the institute behind. you not of the court of the word cure but if you do not have to prove the prestige of our institution and the products it makes the institution 60 years old it was connected to the victory over polio in yellow fever that we delivered drugs from the diseases abroad so we don't need to be promotion. also to come on the weekly thousands of women in the british army suffer harassment and abuse from within their own.