hello and welcome to cross talk where all things considered i'm peter lavelle during the trump administration the u.s. agreed to leave afghanistan by may 1st the biden administration is wavering over this commitment they claim the conditions on the ground are not favorable for withdrawal this begs the question what can be done now that has not been tried for the past 20 years. across talking afghanistan i'm joined by my guest max abrams in boston he's a professor of political science at northeastern university and author of rules for rebels the science of victory in militant history in omaha we have sayer gen he is

director of the center for afghan studies at the university of nebraska at omaha and in moscow we have. he is an expert at the russian international affairs council our gentlemen cross-talk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate it ok i want to go to max 1st hear my question there what can be what can be done now that we haven't tried for the last 20 years we have the 2nd we had the pentagon chief in afghanistan on a listening tour what in the world can he hear that he hasn't been told we've all been told for 20 years go ahead. i think that that's exactly the right question and it's an obvious question but it's not actually the point of emphasis in washington d.c. what washington d.c. likes to point out is that afghanistan is an obsolete mess that the government is weak that the taliban is poised to continue taking over the country that when

that happens we can expect even more violence that liberalism will become even more severe that the terrorism problem may become even worse and on and on and on and maybe some of that is true but the real question is as you asked why will we will we be better off say in 6 months down the road we've been trying to do nation building for about 2 decades now and there is no reason to expect that we'll be in any better of a position if we stay longer we know how bad the situation is in afghanistan but that's not actually a reason for us to stay i think that we should go now in frankly we should have left a very long time ago i was in favor of going into afghanistan in the immediate aftermath of 911 to kill the bad guys to take out as much as the out of the al qaeda

leadership as possible we did that within the 1st several months and afterwards we should have left well max i mean if i can say with you per 2nd i mean what i think we should you know tell our viewers what happened the terrible events happened on $911.00 it was a criminal act and so a policing act should have been should have followed that and that's exactly what we did for the 1st few months took care of that it was a police action then it turned into a 2 decade occupation leading us nowhere and i wouldn't argue afghanistan no where i shared out how do you react to what max in boston just said to us go ahead. well i think i'm actually been saying something that happens that in the last 20 years we should get out now and she carried out every year we repeat the same mantra and unfortunately united states did not have a plan for 2 decades we changed plans. and to answer your question but if that

explain what you shared out is that a good idea i mean that's quite deceptive you keep changing the rules of the game you move the goal post i mean at 4 $1000000000.00 a year what is the united states getting out of it can you please i think i think it actually has gotten a lot against from us and from afghanistan it has gotten security to a large extent it has killer somebody has brought up gas and back from the stone age it hasn't moved on from the government it has given i'm going to set a new government that can state it is not only that but never notice it but also that we get into the wreck shop so there are a lot of stuff to be proud of and those those gaves have been made by the sacrifices of of us so we didn't and thousands of afghans who of course are still fighting for the same goal of ok but chairman i learned if i could be told what should be done do you have an answer this has to come to wind and because they hear us i'm sorry but what you're saying is that the status quo is satisfactory and we discontinue kicking the can down the road but that's pretty that's absolutely

unacceptable ok if something does i don't know if it doesn't work leave ok let me go to maxime in moscow here please react to what you've already heard on our program go ahead next look at think i think there are 3 major a mediation stratton since one is where you. stand to impose conditions on the very participants of the conflict and you can ask them to deliver on this condition and the 2nd one where the greater conducive environment for the talks between the government and the taliban and date has come up with a bunch of their own. you know one state agree or disagree about and that's our one he's actually worse or is in conflict to do something and you know kind of start with your extra money. well the past 20 years outside powers including united states including lesser extent perhaps russia and china and others have tried all of these strategies so right now i think what who are seen kind of is there is

a mixture of all of the 3 strategists where the united states actually join forces to some degree not necessarily with that with russia china and pakistan has their latest consultations in moscow to raise a few days ago and they're trying to kind of. make sure that some of the things that that may appear in afghanistan do not threaten the security of all the outside our response most of the things actually serving the interests of the people has the references to an excess you know the establishment of the islamic emirates as well as the taliban rule the country is an acceptable under the u.n. security council resolution adopted less year that you know the rights of minorities are certain things like this so i think right now. the big issue that the lot of heather waiting should be done by all the afghanistan afghan governments as well as the taliban and i think very fine and well i mean to walk you know i'm

max in boston i'm sorry everybody do we're reminded to all but the the carbon ministration sign an agreement endo hard to get out on may 1st ok what's so hard about that day with announced it was telegraphed everybody knew or with on the cards it was going to happen i mean i'm sorry i'm so tired of this white noise ok a deadline is there get out it was agreed to it's time to go home it took greed to go ahead max in boston. yeah i agree with the thrust of that question i mean regardless of whether you love everything about the deal the deal is it. and i don't like it when the united states re negs on its steel and we saw something similar with the iran nuclear deal and we're seeing something similar in afghanistan and i believe that in general the taliban has upheld its word in the

sense that the taliban is not attacking the united states americans are not dying there since the deal was inked now some people will push back in though say well the taliban hasn't fully severed relations with al-qaeda and honestly there is truth to that however the terms of the deal are not so explicit where they say that the taliban must fully sever all ties to al-qaeda it doesn't actually see that it could be argued that actually the taliban is upholding its side of the deal where is the united states is not and i think that clearly trump had it right that these never ending wars need to end now is the time and if biden extends the deadline which it looks like he will this will become biden's war yes

trump trump gave biden an off ramp and it will be biden's choice to stay and when the united states stays i do not believe that the taliban will maintain its word of avoiding american troops i think that the civil war it will reach and once again the united states will get bogged down in it yet john i mean after 20 years and all of the money in supporting the afghan military services what in the world is going on you know what this reminds me of reminds me of vietnam the government was corrupt the military didn't want to fight because they always knew that washington had their back ok. they did the heavy lifting they spent the money ok and this is an exact same thing that this is a slippery slope and and the government in afghanistan knows it ok what they keep doing is they keep saying that we can't survive without you well where did all the

money go where did all the training go it's time to stand up i mean that's because in afghanistan want to stand up for afghanistan go ahead. well i think it's not fair to compare against and we're going to have selections supporting including including from from russia and from a lot of countries around the world that don't like united states so it wouldn't be fair to compare afghanistan he has the tactical situation might be a little bit similar but overall go back to the deal max talked of what it was a flop from get go actually talk about did not fulfill their promises of course next repeated kind of by the nazis or their contact with al-qaeda they also comus to be used by and actually to give the opposite increase the violence they also did not get engaged in talks without going to goodwill they're exploiting the situation and to call it a ceasefire nothing has happened so far the student is so complex that it requires time more than either the deal did not. come. as

a comprehensive view of the situation on the ground the reality so different. and it's not complicated i don't understand why people keep saying it it's a failure ok you have to start thinking differently it has not worked it will not work we don't need 6 more months we don't need another year we certainly don't need 20 more years ok if you try to do something we have every time we need to announce a cease fire we need to this and that cease fire and that's used by the supporter but not of power russia european union united states any other country china that's the fight has to be announced you need to start negotiating in good well cease fire promotes peace in the long term in the goetia and bringing kind of went back to the got a moment that i'm going to say i'm going to have to be part of the system maxime and moscow so we go another 20 years of having outside powers to terminate the fate of afghanistan go ahead michael i think when it comes to russia's position it's quite it's interesting because initially following the 911 atrocities the moscow supported american operation and provided the russian territory for

a major logistics and then the real number of cases even when many were dispersed residents and good links to thousands you know russia was comparably. united states course there is one school of thought that says well of course because you know the american presence in it got to some friends resources from the united states keeps them busy so it's a good thing for russia the other school of thought in moscow suggests that actually having american stayed there actually brings more instability and you know the taliban get agitated and stuff so we are presence is not welcome i think they do know the social russian position if you that they merican their withdrawal is necessary but not immediately and have the americans leave right now with mediately there will may be an actual power that me be as dangerous as actually axiomatic jump in here gentlemen we have to go to a hard break and after that hard break we'll continue our discussion on afghanistan stay with r.t. . i

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this was a fundamental part of how our political leadership and our country a large understood the bargain you get a hoe and then you know rebel right that's the things you don't revolt if you have a stake in the system. and be really interesting to dial it back and think about the longer deeper history play housings men in the united states not just that question of the american dream but the bigger question of who the dream is and for . welcome back to crossfire where all things considered i'm peter bell to remind you we're discussing afghanistan.

ok let's go back to max in boston max the fact of the matter is there's just too many players that want to keep this graft going on ok let's all be honest about it ok plenty of money slogging around who who knows how much of it makes it actually to afghanistan probably a lot of it's in the. gulf countries. of course the contractors like it the arms dealers like it i mean it's just a good gauge it's a business model and why you know why i shutter it ok i mean it's been going on for 20 years everyone's gotten used to it that's the cynicism of it all max and boston . you know when i 1st learned about the military industrial complex i thought that it was just conspiracy theory nonsense and as i get older the more validity i see to it it seems that whenever the united states wants to withdraw from these so-called never ending wars and by the way the american

public polls consistently show is in favor of winding down american involvement and even when this survey focuses on a sample of veterans that trends 2 are in favor of getting out but you see that they're not actually represented at the highest levels in the military brass doesn't actually represent the actual fighters on the ground and so increasingly we're seeing a divergence between the top levels of the pentagon the actual fighters in the military that trends in the american public and the question is is why and i do believe increasingly that one of the reasons why is is because of the military industrial complex and the fact that these generals when they retire they are

because they're going into the arms industry that is one explanation that i used to not put very much stock in but increasingly it's true we know numerically that increasingly those who retire from the military are more and more likely to go into the private sector and to benefit personally from more u.s. military involvement and more purchases and i do believe that that may be one of them main reasons why when trump said let's get out of syria. let's get out of afghanistan all the sudden there was pushback from the highest levels of the pentagon well of course there was a pay day for these people here john i mean you know all of has have sympathy ghana stand after so many decades of war ok don't think i'm heartless about it but you know it's almost absent with the travails of afghanistan are almost beyond the point i mean so many people are making money off of this the government is weak the

it and the status quo suits them ok they come up with a 1000 reasons why we should say we're educating girls ok well that's not the job of the military ok that's another thing where the international community can come together it's not a military objective here so i mean moving the goal post and you know i keep saying the status quo suits the the afghan government just fine because they're not held responsible for anything 1st of all i don't think they're going to war should be called a graft graft is not sacrifice have been made by american soldiers and for the what i'm going to that's why they don't support it anymore which which benefits we benefits not only the region but also russia and security of central asia it's not a business it's not of his motive for the afghans who are killed every day in a suicide attack or in a car bomb attack very kind of one of the complexity of situation has been just like in soviet union was in afghanistan when it could not go after the centers of

the majority this is us in a space by united states if they were not sanctuaries in pakistan we think i'm going to be right this right this right now the war would have been over in 6 months the situation would be different yes there's corruption there's problems government but those problems are not a number that say we should stop supporting this these problems are everywhere but they have to be stopped and. scaled down to what the event has to be brought into peace into settlement into negotiate a settlement into a cease fire and people can live in peace with each other there are differences between the afghans can do countries in the region the reasons that are mixed specially the sectors in pakistan in the interest of the facts i think other countries in the region. it is not let this work in the way it should be if present . and this war should have had a better deal not a response to the electoral college or whatever we call it the night it states it was an election campaign process not just a move that would have ended the war in afghanistan it's awesome that he look they're responsible into that my son means a peace a cease fire and

a peace that could benefit the whole region including russia and i would but what i'd like about a vacuum we've seen the vacuum post office would run and if you have something if you go back and post all of those things we should not be those mistakes that because back everybody knows that russia's affect a certain age of the fact that china is affected all the difference in effect in the yeah well if you know that one of the reasons why the war continues because there are foreigners in occupation of that country gives care or is oxygen it gives them a reason to get up in the morning here let me go to magnolia here not let me get maybe get hang on let me go to maxime in moscow here the afghan study group which is a fraudulent group of i ever saw one even they even they over the last few weeks ok it was during the trump and pietschmann and so the media didn't pick up on it but it had the media doesn't have much interest in afghanistan at all that's a pity that this afghan study group they said that if of if the troops stay past the deadline we're going to have to send more troops to protect those

troops because i take that the taliban at their word there will be consequences if the if the agreement is broken then we'll have americans dying again being killed in afghanistan when it hasn't happened for over a year so you know to be so if you don't get out you could have to send more to keep the ones that are there this is starting the treadmill all over again go ahead maxime look i think there is a saying in the russian language for some people it's a war for others to smother it will good so basically this war into the military industrial complex profiting from from the afghanistan war as much as from any war makes sense had to flee and. devil's advocate and look at it from also senator when if you i would perhaps argue that 1st of all the americans are not going to abandon afghanistan entirely so i think that what might there will be some presence remained even after him you know removing the bulk of forces leaves the country so that military intelligence will say some military trainers will see. only because.

i could interrupt you here than the agreement is all american troops withdraw by may 1st there's no caviar there at that to really think those are all simple words said simple meaning you can't just say you know we're going to leave but we're not going to leave ok well what does that what kind of word do you have ok i mean you sound like an idiot you know not you but i mean that maybe maybe authorities i'm going to leave but we're not going to leave what the hell that mean go ahead well i think all of of course. i think we understand that in any kind of political reality if the political decision making ones you know to use that spiritual force some other things that will always find a way to get me out and say well we meant combat troops and not entirely military intelligence were trainers or some so i think this is my point i think there might be with it will remain some american presence there only to deter who are you know to monitor her chinese military as you can see as much russian military which is

russia and china are american and it's a serious presidential really did to not about afghanistan again it's live there just beyond the point here ok the largest counties and watch the russians ok well i'm obviously perhaps i'm speculating but there is i think one more think i've got a sudden graveyard of empires notoriously and it's obviously more integral to get out of there and the british and american and then to russians at this audience rather and now it's time for americans but i think it will remain to a lesser scale that will say ok well then any minute. ration that signs an agreement with anybody in afghanistan or the taliban is not going to have believed the americans now and we had that with iran unfortunately too probably the only good thing obama did is as president in foreign policy maxim you go back to and talk a little bit something closer to home you know we had election cycle after election cycle people saying they're against these never ending wars but it never makes it

to the top does it ok ok they rolled obama they obstructed and rolled the trump and you know biden is now in no position to resist anything right now ok but the the american people have made it adamantly clear and i'm really glad that you brought up veterans good veterans and the majority are against these wars they were there they saw how they work how it was conducted and helpful how much of a wasting failure it was you know what is it going to take ok i mean because you pointed out very clearly you have this upper echelon of people with the revolving door you know they get a job you know and they and they just perpetuate it ok we my goodness the secretary of state is a former general that was in one of these endless wars go ahead max. it's true that this idea of ending these never ending war is quite popular in the american public and it has become a talking point by the political elite except when they actually are

empowered like we're seeing with biden and democrats in congress there is no actual concrete movement to end these wars. and yemen which was very low hanging fruit it wouldn't be hard at all for the u.s. to entirely disassociate itself from that conflict bitin didn't actually do that he said that the saudis would continue to be backed for you know whatever defensive purposes which members absolutely of any. in syria which is arguably another neverending war. you know instead of getting out the biden and ministration authorized attacks against iranian assets in that country and now we're seeing in afghanistan rather than withdrawing in compliance with the may 1 deadline it looks as if we're going to perpetuate our stay there perhaps indefinitely and so there continues to be this huge disconnect between what the american public wants what

politicians say they're going to do and what they actually do which is only continue these never ending wars i think that i want to give it here john the last 30 seconds here make a plea why we should stay in this conflict 30 seconds my friend go ahead. we have to end this war responsibly not repeat the mistakes of the past so we can end it and united states could do the same thing if we do and this war and responsibility we should not repeat that people haunt us again i mean our state just you know said what. russia and all the countries around it we should not create a vacuum we should let the cease fire with peace and ok i got a job and i wrote about thank you gentlemen many thanks to my guests in boston omaha and in moscow and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at our q. see you next time and remember.

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