hello and welcome to cross up where all things considered i'm peter lavelle talks are underway in vienna to save the way the agreement the trump administration unilaterally walked away from making the deal whole again is relatively easy for iran but that cannot be said for the united states as the by did ministration have the political will to say yes to turn around. talking that way i'm joined by my guest in washington he is chairman of the market group a consultancy on middle east affairs in vienna we have. he is the former head of the verification and security policy coordination office at the international atomic energy agency and input and we have mohammad marandi he is a professor at the university of turin. in effect that means you can jump in

anytime you want and i always appreciate it let's go to turn around 1st professor marandi. initial reports from the meetings in vienna are a little bit more upbeat than i would have expected a little i'm surprised i have to say here what is your perspective because as i said in my introduction it's the u.s. is going to have to do a lot of things to get back into this deal that it walked away from unilaterally iran is going to have to kind of tweak a few things here so how do you see things playing out go ahead. that's the reason why i am very cautious because the iranians are not going to get many new concessions to the united states deal of the g.'s if you know any is signed it's done both sides know what they have to do so the iranians are prepared to implement the deal install as they have been doing so in the past but only if the united states fully implement its side of the bargain and carries out its commitments that

the americans carry out their commitments and america fight them because as you alluded to this point in night it is in the past wrote one something on paper the signs are they want it but in reality they didn't do it never allowed to run to use the international banking system which was the most important part of the deal so this time around the iranians are saying the americans. have to implement all of their commitments and it has to be verified only then will the iranians are you willing to carry out their commitments and you know i used can do it quite easily. and the i.a.e.a. has said repeatedly that iran has been carrying out its commitments jeffrey in a sense the trumpet ministration did walk away from it how do you weigh the issue of trust because i mean if an american ministration negotiated signed and then walked away from what how would you feel it being iran dealing with the next administration because they could do exactly the same thing all over again so i

mean isn't it it's a trust issue here at this point as well jeffrey in washington yes well it's well certainly if in any negotiation if you've been burned once it's very hard to get over that sentiment and you're absolutely correct in suggesting that certainly on the iranian side they need to take a very hard look at the sustainability of whatever. agreement they might reach with the biden administration which has its own internal concerns in. addition there are many voices in washington both on the down democrat in the democratic party and the republican party who maintain a vociferous opposition to any real engagement with iran and that is also needs to be understood in certainly other issue of concern as the uranium and the

other partners to the j c p o way observe the scene here in washington. it's go to vienna. the problem is here is that even in the last weeks and months of the trump and ministration there quote unquote maximum pressure program they intensified it here they they knew very well that if there were a biden ministration and they wanted to go back and reenter this deal here they made it doubly triply hard to do it because the u.s. is going to go through a lot of hoops to start doing all of these sanctions because that this is essentially what iran wants to have the deal work i mean what how it can the administration can it do it quickly is that it is its word worth anything saying we'll do it we'll do it i mean how are they like i said it's really on the on the by the administration to be convincing that they actually will make a commitment to this deal because

a previous ministration made it almost impossible to go back to go ahead in vienna . yes there is the cardinal principle of international law on that the vienna convention on the law of treaties it's called servando that agreements are meant to be honored and kept international agreements are made by this date right and they are meant to be honored even if the political order and the state changes so unfortunately over the years not only with the j.c.b. away but also with some other agreement the u.s. has been in violation of the expense of as their presidential systems have changed in the us from what i understand there is a division of use i'm very glad that the u.s. delegation sent to vienna is headed by robert malley who has said openly that the united states needs to resend the sanctions regional issues human rights and ballistic missiles off the table bring the original j.c.b. away back into force and then address these other issues but as i understand

secretary of state and actual security advisor sullivan and some others are not so forthcoming so i think the u.s. 1st of all needs to put its own house in order to get a consistent and here and policy and then implement it and as you mentioned in the introduction the proximity or indirect talks that have started in vienna at this week moderated by the europeans on the very 1st day they have set up 2 technical working groups one on the reception of u.s. sanctions and one on the technical steps that iran would need to take to restart its compliance on the nuclear side so this at least is a good start the harmony one of the things i find interesting is that the news reports and i'm reading is that they're talking only about the agreement itself not the other periphery issues which again really kind of surprised me because you know all of these voices in washington that are against this deal have said that you

know it didn't go for far the nuff they wanted a long range missiles eccentric centra according what behavior in the region but i guess i was just off balance you know we're only going to talk about the j c p a way are you surprised by that lisa to stage go ahead. it's hard to say because we have to see what the real intentions are i think it's to the benefit of the united states you keep these other issues out because when it comes to human rights violations united states is 2nd to none in the walk the crimes against humanity in syria and yemen and across the region or when it comes to weapons systems the united states is surrounded iran with military bases and the iranians really if there is a 8 about who's causing trouble in that region i think the iranians will have a lot more to say in iran there are many people who oppose the deal in iran many people believe that it was a. orally designed and orly crafted agreement but ultimately after all of the

debates the there was a consensus that we will agree to it and not afterwards all iranians except a deal even those who oppose it so the united states you know they're the excuse that certain parts of the state or the deep state are opposed to the deal that does nothing for iran. the iranians are saying that look when the deal was negotiated by then was the vice president he was the part of that it ministration that administration cheated iran because they were supposed to abide by their commitments and they didn't and the it didn't do so intentionally whereas the iranians immediately carried out all of the argument so this time around the iranians are saying look we're not going to talk about anything but the nuclear deal and the only thing that we're going to talk about is the implementation of the deal as it stands because all the negotiations have already taken place and therefore the americans have to armless and show to iran that they're going to

carry out all of their commitments and then after that they've done it iran is this time around have to see that they're able to use the internet and international financial system and only then will the iranians carry out their commitments because as i said earlier iran the iranians can carry out their commitments quite easily because the international atomic energy agency can confirm when they've done that but on the other hand they're merican if they sign something on a piece paper and then you have to not do it then they are then you have to chase them for years to get it done and that's not going to have it in jeopardy when i am in a looking at it slipping away and looking at all this here iran has made a huge concession by even a bit involving itself in these talks ok because it was the u.s. that left ok so i mean where's the quid pro quo now i mean the iranians say ok fine if we want to talk about it again you want to discuss it again implementation again fine but what is the u.s.

can give for iran's sitting down at the table. well in their view what what they give is is the promise of relief of sanctions that were implemented in the contacts or in that that were meant to be removed in the context of the j c p o a agreement now it's also important to note that above and beyond those sanctions which are to be rescinded as part of a renewed agreement there are scores of sanctions that have been implemented you know love that early by the united states without any reference to sift oakley to the j. c.p.o. way and it's certainly not clear at this stage whether that body sanctions will be fair game in the talks that that we hope and assume will progress. so we we've got quite a high mountain to climb here and unfortunately it's not as simple as the americans

saying yes we are we're prepared to resume and the uranian saying thank you very much well geoffrey staying with you i mean when we will when you have these kinds of negotiations goodwill is appropriate as well i mean can can that be a goodwill will gesture and saying you know we this is meaningful us to us we can work on these sanctions as well after we get through this agreement i mean because the way i've always looked at this agreement is a a beginning of a process not the end of one here or i would have to interrupt myself here we're going to go but it was your break in at about your break we'll continue our discussion on the j.c. pos state with r.t. . that is the ticket to go to this edition you this is the 1st one of the last the distance from the from the podium.

as you'll see this would want to. see if it was national guard. at the base of the plane into. the air. some of which are the films. made up i will support scoop one of these critics one of the biggest musical yet the new because the. machine and the life of the smear. both of you. oppose someone. who doesn't like the late eighty's. was a pundit make no certainly no borders and is blind to nationalities. you

. know so much we don't come with the we don't look like seeing the whole world needs to be. judged as commentary crisis with this system to times we can do better we should. everyone is contributing way but we also know that this crisis will not go on forever the challenges create the response has been so many good people are helping us. it makes us feel very proud that we are in it together. we are segregated. by social class most people don't want

a 1st floor if you're born into a poor family if you're born into a minority family if you're born into a family that only has a single parent that really constrains your life chances people die and they stay long years young if you're born into a generational. fight every day so you meet your needs and the needs of your family. welcome back to crossfire we're all things considered i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're discussing the way. ok let's go back to our guest in vienna and i wouldn't have been covering this story ever since the negotiations started the the agreement was agreed to trump

walked away from it and now we're here and so i have to admit my friend there's been a lot of pessimism around this in my mind in recovering it what are the roadblocks ahead here i mean like you know i've said you know there's some good sounds coming out in the beginning here i don't want to get my hopes up my is not a good way of looking at this here because i see that there are so many vested interests mostly in the united states but possibly also in iran but don't want to see this. done here go ahead in vienna. well this week has been the start of the direct the proximity talks and both sides i think have shown their opening gambit what i hear in the margins is that there is a possibility of restoring the j.c.b. away and there to be a sort of a side agreement that once that just e.p.o. is back in full force the various tides will look at something to follow on that might be

a little bit broader that also addresses other concerns of iran and also of the united states on the on the basis of bringing back the way that things are not that simple when pressed and trump walked away from the j.c. in may of 2018 iran waited for about a year and starting in june 2019 and february this year it has taken 8 or 9 progressive steps in forming the i in advance of stepping outside the j c p o l limits in this period iran has acquired much more experience and expertise and operating manufacturing and then reaching uranium and this expertise and experience cannot be walked back iran has created more negotiating chips it has nearly 3 khans 3000 kilograms of enriched uranium of which roughly 55 kilograms of so are at 20 percent enrichment which iran says it needs for the fuel for that their own

research reactor iran has 15 designs of centrifuges the j.c.b. away limited iran only the one the very 1st generation the i r one and up these 15 design 6 advanced designs the centrifuges are already producing and reaching your any and so iran is much less ahead in its expertise and experience but forgot to un human richmond that it was before the j.c.b. away it was denounced by the us administration a point i wanted to pick up under president obama. believe you had the budet the just be aware would be the start of normal relations. with iran but i think under biden they are basically trying to fix the current situation and then back on clobbered in prospect your economic investment picks in the economy are not really interested and broadening and the reopening of the us iran relationship and putting it on them normal. well that's

a very interesting point here again you know i hadn't thought about the creation of political facts as we go into this round of negotiations here it's very interesting i didn't know that mohamed again what we heard from our guest in vienna is very interesting is what is the end goal do you think of the biden ministration because you know the the people around him i call them the b. team from the obama administration not people that are very very impressive at all maybe they just want to take this poker out of the fire and this kind of be done with it because my hope and i think that what we got from ben rhodes during the obama administration this could be the beginning of something if the u.s. gets itself back into this agreement here what does how does it change the region how does it change iran's situation visa be its neighbors and its adversaries go ahead. well 1st of all there are 2 important points that we have to keep in mind iran's progress in the nuclear field. after the americans left the

nuclear program and as your guest pointed out run waited for a year before it began to creasing its commitments but iran did ultimately increase its nuclear capabilities and that cannot be reverse that knowledge the united states has caused hundreds of billions of dollars damage it has killed people in iran it has killed women children and patient and hospitals so and i think i really believe that obama really was serious about normalization pleasant he was ready he would implement the human soul and he never did and that was intentional in fact the iranian leader ayatollah harmony said back then that if the united states committed itself to deal if it if it acts in good faith and carries out its commitments then we can start talking about other issues he said this in a public speech but obama never took advantage of this in my opinion by then is no

better than obama it's and i think that the iranians will have to be very steadfast and and very cautious about what is going on right now the united states for example as pointed out i want to your guest as you impose new sanctions iran is not going to accept those either because the iranians are saying yesterday you pose sanctions and the name of their nuclear program tomorrow could be human rights then it could be missile defense capabilities then it could be global warming whatever the united states will find some excuse to party iran so the iranians are saying we're not going to accept any sanctions that impede our economic capabilities and until the united states removes all those sanctions the iranians are not going to abide by they're committed so the ball is in the american court they let. you know they hurt the iranians iranian state in that he'll be gradually increase their commitments in the hope that the europeans and americans could return now if the

americans want to return fine let's see what they have on what they're going to do it jeffrey kind of a kind of a simple question here i mean what what is biden going to get out of this if the agreement moves forward here that they're successful negotiations or is it a more simple political calculus is that he's undoing something that trump did i mean and we see this in washington politics all the time drunk did it all the time he and did a lot of things obama did i mean it's almost kind of like a childish trend i mean is that part of it too a because i remember during the democratic primary it was just of a point of pride and do what trump did is there anything to that go ahead in washington well certainly everyone here has raised an important point which is the context in which these negotiations are now being held is not the same context as was in force during the negotiation itself that resulted in the agreement

whether or not president biden's commitment is better or worse than obama's he has a whole new series of issues to address that go beyond iran us really really they are relations nat narrow alley and extend to the broad question of security in that part of the world in the persian gulf in the indian ocean and so so forth and in the intervening years we've seen increasing interest in the u.s. in recalibrating its presence in that part of the world and correspondingly an increased. suggestion that others know notably russia and china as well as the countries in the region itself. the greater say in security in the gulf and its environs only in the last week or so there was an

extended discussion of this as part part of the. dialogue in moscow that the chinese. are also in the process of building a blue water navy which can extend its reach into this part of the world so all of these issues are now to a greater degree than they were in the past front and center in the calculations of each of the parties and they certainly don't make an agreement easy here. again because. we we can't sit still in time and space this is a dynamic enterprise and to simply suggest that we go back to square one and forget everything that's happened in the interim is made sounds nice and clean and easy but it doesn't really address the fundamental dynamic that now is in process

throughout the region itself that so well said i really appreciate you saying that because i think a lot of mainstream media doesn't understand how things have changed or let's go back to our guest in vienna again looking at media reports here just to kind of be blunt here it looks like the israelis have been shut out in the end by going ministration because they're showing a great deal of frustration quite publicly that they're not being consulted here is that important as well in all of this because donald trump was very much motivated by the israeli lobby he made it very clear as well it seems to be there's a bit of a cooling of relations. between washington and tel aviv is is at play any calculus and here are how the by the administration moves forward. i doubt such a press reports are accurate that israelis still maintain very close connections with various elements in the us government as various political action committees if you look at some of the briefings done by ambassador wendy sherman and the

previous year she has said that the israelis were fully briefed will remain to be fully briefed as are some of the gulf states and saudi arabia badly that remark was that as long as the discussion in the j.c. is strictly nuclear these countries would be happy to be briefed but if other issues are brought on the table they also want it to be on the table of the 6 living directives of israeli intelligence over to intelligence agencies or of them have come out publicly to say that the j.c.b. away is in israel's national security interest it was a good deal and it should be maintained and they disagree with their own prime minister netanyahu who has been denouncing the j.c.b. away from day one i might also add that reversing iran's nuclear achievements over the past year and a half is not going to be that easy it's not a click of the switch that they can turn off the centrifuges and the i.a.e.a.

goes then verifies and gives an ok sign it's going to take some amount of time as these things the progressively stopped because these are very valuable assets of iran and if you cannot just start and stop centrifuges like a car engine there's a particular sequence some of the cascades will have to be reconfigured because iran has reconfigured them in order to make the higher enrichment levels so also on the iranian side from a technical perspective even with full cooperation by iran it will still take quite a bit of time and i have to chime in here but gettleman we have run out of time who would have thought that donald trump walking away from an agreement would help the education of iran iran's engineers who would have done. many thanks and i guess and watch it in vienna and in town and thanks to our viewers for watching us here r.t.c. you next time to remember. because

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