life itself i just think i was in like i was just scared i was a scared little girl i was 24 and like. didn't have to be so complicated. seemed wrong. just. let me. get to shape out these days become educated and engagement equals betrayal. when so many find themselves worlds apart when she's to look for common ground.

hello and welcome to cross talk where all things are considered on peter lavelle is there a method to secretaries they blame tim's madness what are we to make of his policies towards russia china ukraine and afghanistan what comes 1st for him values or interests is he informed by ideology or geopolitics does he believe in anything. discuss these issues and more i'm joined by my guess marcus papadopoulos in london he's a historian analyst and author of the new book arise where i'll see a return of russia to world politics and in oxford we have mark owen he is the director of the crisis research institute gentlemen rostock rules and in fact that

means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate it ok let's go to marcus papadopoulos in london 1st marcus what do you make of the secretary of state and we can throw in as well as callie jake sullivan i mean we've had a very turbulent last few weeks particularly when it comes to the issue of ukraine but we had also the summit in anchorage so you know we we have all of this dust being kicked up about ukraine's sovereignty which we can talk about and only one country has been compromising the sovereignty of ukraine that's the united states you remember big torii a new one and then we have anchorage here and then as we speak right now by commiseration is asking of russia will join a climate change conference you know and john kerry you. in china if i'm not mistaken and nobody really wants to talk to him and the summit that was being proposed the russians are not interested in it i mean what's going on with lincoln in the others in the administration they seem to have lost the plot nobody really

cares what they think. well peta i hope the premise was that it was the deployments or significant numbers of ukrainian forces including heavy artillery and of miss our systems to the donbass that precipitates it because the crisis over ukraine i do not believe a bad decision was actually made by the crimean authorities themselves i believe that they were instructed to deploy its forces to the donbass by washington and london after hope ever since the coup in ukraine in february 2014 the ukrainian government has been nothing but a collaborator so both the americans and the british so i have to ask myself the question why have the americans and also the british police about this crosses over ukraine is it because washington and london is it because the state department the

national security adviser divided our ignorance about the cultural and national security significance of ukraine to russia well i believe that when and ukraine was part of the soviet union yes this state department would have been in many respects ignorance about the significance of ukraine to russia but i do not believe the state department has been ignorance about ukraine ever since the demise of the soviet union and especially since the coup in ukraine 7 years ago so therefore i have to conclude peter that the americans and the british instructed the lackeys in kids to depart. significant numbers of ukrainian troops and ukrainian military hardware to the don't ask to test the response of the kremlin to test the readiness of the russian military the americans and the british were not

relinquish ukraine easily they are absolutely adamant that ukraine who enter nato so encircled on its western borders it's a very dangerous policy the americans and the british plane but whilst i believe that the secretary of state and the national security adviser deployed to themselves our ignorance about russian history i don't believe the people on the russian desk in the state department and also in the foreign office are ignorance about just how important ukraine is to russia you know the market and we did see a bit of a stand down i mean the exercises were going into the black sea were kind of put on hold maybe even canceled as somebody is saying something here but i mean look we look at the media narrative and is a really quite extraordinary they get it's real it's whoa what reacting to russian aggression is if you can be aggressive when you're moving troops within your own

country that's never properly explained i don't understand it either because there's no logical answer towards it but i mean i think marcus is on something here and i think this is testing resolve and i think they've got an answer there's a lot of resolve here the interesting thing for me is that the all the biggest loser in all of this is obviously ukraine but i guess the policymakers in washington in london don't care about that go ahead mark you know i think that this is the basic problem is that. the western states have not really understood that this is all vitally important to russia. and even if you take the completely negative view of russia's role since 2014 it still makes sense to just go what do we want out of this do we want to have a conflict with russia now it will be suicidal and soft but also we can see if you're trying to win with somebody using the game and they think it's like debts then you're going to write us off in a real punctual and i think fortunately perhaps without states and some who

worships the black sea the americans or. they don't want to raise the stakes too high and then find themselves i mean to retreat or question who was. more problematic still or just correctly or don't want you know a discussion. but warbly school board on don't trump us amateur unpredictable and so on in his foreign policy it turns out insofar as any continuity with its well they carry on with it also it would also carry on with the. well this is all the more bizarre because it's. been the national security being in highly post yes including the case of them come back into the late ninety's so we we find ourselves innocent missing a puzzle these were supposed to be the people who return professionalism and predictability oh well good foreign policy and certainly in the past 3 months they behaved as though they all the kind of trumping rank how side is a bizarre weirdoes look we were taught to think oh well the disaster behind

transform poles so they. can keep going to these new so what then you can say is if you or any other not just in moscow beijing but even if you're in paris berlin you have to also want to be signed on to with these people for fear that you within a few weeks over. the policy changed its response. here you might get more conceptually right here i mean the companies are is it for you is it you know when there was the call between the russian in the in the american president. escalation on the nato side and there is a there is sarah good in this case ukraine and after the phone call we're told maybe there could be a summit here i mean why when the world with the russians sit down for a summit after the antics that we have seen rubies of the ukraine for weeks now i mean we we have the cranium president talking with french media i mean basically

throwing down the gauntlet and basically is also saying you know this is it's all or nothing i mean we're in. nato now irrespective of the rules of in train the alliance or if it is a catastrophic war i mean what kind of sarah get is that and what does it say exactly what mark was saying the kind of normal normalization of of policy and stability here i mean it's a mockery of all this is just one big mess that never should have happened in the 1st place marcus one of the opinion it so that biden's proposal cheering his telephone conversation with ericsson to a range of mates in it which the survey says can discuss ukraine was merely a propaganda exercise by the americans the americans and of course the british have projects it's so their respective audiences and to the rest of the world that the current crisis of ukraine was about wide. and

a massive russian forces close to the with ukraine with the intent of invade in russia and of course the americans who are as we all know the guardians of peace in the world the guardians of democracy are trying to present since a result of it now because that's nothing but a propaganda exercise but i must also say this pizza i don't actually believe that i didn't actually backed down as some western commentators are same not. i believe the americans knew what the response of the russians was going to be in london and washington know very well that russia is not going to cough when it comes to ukraine it is simply too personal for russia culturally and in terms of its national security i would also corroborate my argument by saying base

firstly was the decision was taken to cancel the deployments of the 2 american warships to the black sea the americans are still going ahead in our great in the ukrainian police over desa nicholai f. and logical to accommodate american warships secondly it is now being group who's in britain that at some point this may the who navy will be deploying warships of its own so the black sea so i don't think behind and back down i think it was a cop again directs its eyes and has a center here in the program has in the readiness of the russian military you know where. the when when the americans and the bread is not about the new grain sovereignty i mean they have a very short memory or there is blaine's because. there's more of the february who in 2014 let's remember this year correct me if i'm wrong but look around has been done in crimea was part of ukraine after the coup then the crimea

and they voted with their feet quite literally and then the people of what we call the donbass were were the subject of a military assault were up to $14000.00 people were killed so when they're talking about protecting ukraine's sovereignty i would think victoria nuland is probably the biggest agreed offender in violator i'm ukraine's sovereignty correct me if i'm wrong. but in 2014 the west at this view the russians are in a sense a retreat. well $989.00 someone would continue to do so. and also has to pretty in ukraine and be a big thing and therefore you could have a centrist small scale of people in here where a few 1000 people over throw the government and everybody else. and it turned out that wasn't the case and it was that the russian state was not to see russian

speakers are now subjected to people who were using the rhetoric of banning russian language making so russian. and i think the problem with the west being that we fail to think through who might all right laura prim and. in fact in a situation knowing who your friends are knowing whether the people you're backing the same views the same produce that you think they do when they have the same policies i'm agenda. is a really important question to go. and it may be that people in all diplomatic services. but all public opinion is very much on the view that there's a plucky democratic crain place to crash a credit. and it fails to see whatever problems are in crimea. which is the ukrainian nationalist home right

that actually is in quote in trouble with russia because they want to draw the west and. i want you to hold this thought you're not going to heartbreak and that's about heartbreak we'll continue our discussion of american foreign policy state. guys are financial survival. well reducing our. bets undercutting but what's good for markets good for the global economy. it's been decades since the fall of spain's fascist regime but old wounds still haven't emailed. me in the us at the us it's mean older than just the same question which we know.

of newborn babies were torn from their mothers and given away and forced adoption. fee. to this day mothers still search for grown children while looking in hope for their parents. call them have to cross or all things are considered i'm peter lavelle this is the home edition and we're discussing american foreign policy. go back to mark and officer here we were going to the break i'd like you to finish your point go right ahead i think there is the risk where are the white. loaves ukrainians who essentially. was inside ukraine going to assert themselves as

russia dragon the west. well. right now as you can see. and i might be but but isn't it that i mean that if the thing is as and i understand the geopolitical gambit because essentially no matter what the outcome politically it's a it's bad to russia ok if there if the donbass is attacked by ukrainian forces. russia will react is made it very clear this is a red line here ukrainian military will be damaged severely if not annihilated ok but russia will be quote unquote doing the the aggressor ok so i mean it's kind of no matter what happens if there is a military outcome a initiative the outcome is a political defeat for russia but in between in that logic is a lot of ukrainians are going to die as well here see and that's what i find really

perplexing here i mean i think really willing to do that because it is the end skis standing wolf you will have lost the war he will be out ok and then you have this virulent nationalists will probably take even a stronger position or marcus what a big you know want me to do my scenario does it make any sense to go to. the americans and the british can do nothing for ukraine insolvency like they can nothing for the welfare of the average ukrainian man and woman what they see in ukraine is to enclose a loss on its western borders and in a so innocent javier where ukraine is a member of nato then the russian federation on its west old 60 so the black sea. and circles and neighed so eventually the dominance may fall in the black sea just take a map out and look at ukraine's coastline if ukraine was in nato or nato warships

from odessa all the way to the sea of azoff would be a menace in not just the russian black sea fleet but russian national security in general. well you know it's a nice things let me jump in here because there's a we're talking about and this is what speculate about ukraine in nato market what kind of ukraine i mean ukraine without the donbass ukraine without crimea i mean and then that is a violation of nato zone rules because a country cannot become a member of it has territorial disputes with its neighbors here nato is probably couldn't break its own rules and rewrite them in a it's i don't put that past them but if there is a military conflict it is not going to be the don back to the meat maybe it's all the way to kind of cough ok i mean because if you look at it from the russian side i mean if this is how you want to play then we're going to great we're going to look after our security interests i mean of this look at what happened in in

georgia in 2008 i mean silva said to you it was liberated then russian forces went all the way down to gori not to occupy it not to keep it but to knock out all of the sensitive n.s.a. equipment that was there as well estimated worth be a $1000000000.00 n.s.a. had a real headache with that one there i mean what's a history does repeat itself at times and i see this here to some i mean what kind of rump state are we talking about when it comes to ukraine when it let the tragedy of ukraine is in fact not just seems to. be not wrong life is getting well. informed and song. and so that's a big problem from the ukraine could have a real world of its internal system for instance maybe people who don't buy us money do we necessarily want but it's more dangerous in the other way also talked about that conflict is not of course both western military equipment and western training. in-situ in west but the problem is that the bases we're back to 10

missiles and other well would almost certainly be the tone groups in a war between russia and ukraine so if we were post no. don't buy. well when the credit to the fact that there are issues significant numbers of military trainers and so on and military equipment in ukraine that would be almost a nickel and. i'm not maybe that would deter russia respond but i think since 2008 for instance over georgia and south ossetia the idea of russia will be passed in. a conflict at any cost to be a mistake and so even if you take those of the most. nations and. you have to also ask them so what is the kremlin's base of interest that is to russia's. and to . make clear that it isn't a. and as a project it wants to have

a conflict the risk the escalation is the simple reality is that for russia it's like the issue absence of the cross korean government but it's not a life and death issue west nor pan's. so what where does that leave us it leaves us in situation we might find ourselves provoking a major conflict and i want to back out of that is not always easy to do once you start a fight you can't you can't lay down the ground rules that's right that's why we call it the fog of war marcus i mean looking at it at secretaries they plane can end sullivan here are they ideologues in your mind or are they opportunists do they think in geopolitical terms because you know we you know sullivan said he wanted to have a foreign policy for the middle class which if they wanted to more closely middle class they would end all these wars and stop killing young men and women in wasting all the money maybe put a little money into infrastructure i mean well what do you make of these people

because personally i just say it straight out i think these people are low octane thinkers go ahead marcus i agree with your analysis of the data and i also do not consider them absolute so in selection as i've been saying this for a number of years now that the caliber of politicians in america and in britain cannot be compared with the caliber in both countries from say firm c. or 40 years ago and in regard to the current circuit your state of the gods of the commons national security advisor are they are ideologues well maybe in the sense that they believe in american glue supremacy they believe in american exceptionalism believe that the world is divided between good and bad and the good is the west. is is the east principly russia and i think on that basis they will because surely their policy which they have which they

inherited from the trumpet ministration i say the trumpet ministers and i don't say drum which the trumpet ministration inherited from the obama administration which there are of ministration inherited from the bush administration. and so on but i quickly want to say peter that in the gutter ukrainian membership of major you're right you nato could bend its own rules to accommodate ukraine into the military bloc and i think it's far more likely ukrainian government could sit down with its masters in washington and london and decide that it's time to redraw the national guard is we're not going to but they know they've not gets ukraine back they know they will not retrieve a 3rd of the net and the 1st of lugansk which is gone if they have to redraw their national borders then yes theoretically the road is open for them joining nato and i also want to say there is no tension between ukraine and russia there is tension

between the ukrainian authorities and the russian government the only area of ukraine you will find really in abundance runs as he runs consensus and is in goal is the is in ivana frank is in turn a pole if you it's not just on the left ankle that the mic where you find a very production of a pro so if it's also on the right bank of the river if you go to a better the people there are largely speaking who say odessa is a russian old which is historically accurate so there is no tension between the ukrainian people by and large and the russian people there is only tension between the ukrainian authorities and the russian authorities the ukrainian authorities are lackies they are willing to say the destruction of their own country which is an artificial one for the sake of the military boots they are receiving from russia wasn't and london you know market one of the things that again i suppose i'm really

perplexing is that if there is a complicated it is resolved in the way that marcus is just suggested here it doesn't mean tensions will go away why would anyone want to invest money in ukraine when there are tensions still with one of its neighbors here in a. and of course russia is going to make it very very difficult for nato membership here i mean it seems to me it doesn't solve any of ukraine's problems whatsoever and i don't see the european union particularly interested in bringing new crane on board ok because of the governance issue it's a lot of agriculture i mean that really doesn't serve any purpose for the for the e.u. when it has its own structural problems right now i mean it and i'm just kind of mystified i mean i guess it's kind of like the saakashvili you know phenomenon you know that he believes all these really wonderful stories and the little trinkets they put in front of him but it didn't it didn't solve any of george's problems either i just again that's why i asked of these people ideologues of the

opportunists how would you describe them go ahead well basic problem for the politically leaching here is that because it hasn't managed to revive the economy after all it is the whole depended heavily on western and by the way also on the u.s. but i asked johnson which is why it's so well stocked with note also. and so you have a situation that will be more citizen which we're seriously orms an improvement to because it's your life and. getting rid of corruption when it's all getting little siphon your money out into our bank account so you get a real up arms and all are being put on the back and as you say this is not just the koreans trying to read stuff you can torture and say some of the republicans but seem to respond to the new house oh wait a minute do we really want to take on the burden of paying these countries to reach our standards but who typically when you have this irony of the british role pushing these countries to join the e.u. you are pushing for the e.u. . but the british would look at withdrawals from the you won't be paying into the budget so in fact the resources available to the what we want will be peace

economic integration but. much depends on what we call it crisis the economic downturn. so we have this base which was west in the dish which is the ability to draw to go google strolls military or receive or all see economic policy what is in our interests what are all right you know with the. race and so we see this internally waving in the wind sometimes being very assertive and aggressive in all of them back you know statements visit and what would you say if you have to cite comments like i reassure you i'm going to you but we'll leave it. it's always the up a little sort of a nonstarter. gentlemen that's all the time we have a want to thank my guests in london and in oxford and i want to thank our viewers for watching us here in r.t.c. you next time remember.

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