hello and welcome to cross talk where all things are considered on peter lavelle is there a method to secretaries they blame tim's madness what are we to make of his policies towards russia china ukraine and afghanistan what comes 1st for him values or interests is he informed by ideology or geopolitics does he believe in anything. discuss these issues and more i'm joined by my guess marcus papadopoulos in london he's a historian analyst and author of the new book arise with the return of russia to world politics and in oxford we have mark owen he is the director of the crisis research institute right gentlemen rostock rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate it ok let's go to marcus papadopoulos

in london 1st marcus what do you make of the secretary of state that we can throw in what is called the jake sullivan i mean we've had a very turbulent last few weeks particularly when it comes to be issue of ukraine but we had also the summit in anchorage so you know we we have all of this dust being kicked up about ukraine's sovereignty which we can talk about and only one country has been compromising the sovereignty of ukraine that's the united states you remember big torii a new one and then we have anchorage here and then as we speak right now by mr ation is asking of russia will join a climate change conference you know and john kerry is in china if i'm not mistaken and nobody really wants to talk to him and the summit that was being proposed the russians are not interested in it i mean what's going on with lincoln in the others in the administration they seem to have lost the plot nobody really cares what they think go ahead well it's up. i thought the premise was that it was the deployments

or significant numbers of ukrainian forces including heavy artillery and miss our systems to the donbass that precipitates it current crisis over ukraine i do not believe that decision was actually made by the crimean authorities themselves i believe they were instructed to deploy its forces to the donbass i washington and london after hope ever since the coup in ukraine in february 2014 the ukrainian government has been nothing but a collaborator to both the americans and the british so i have to ask myself the question why have the americans and also the british police about this crosses over ukraine is it because washington and london is it because the state department the national security adviser divided our ignorance about the cultural and national

security significance of ukraine to russia well i believe that when and ukraine was part of the soviet union yes this state department would have been in many respects ignorance about the significance of ukraine to russia but i do not believe the state department has been ignorance about ukraine ever since the demise of the soviet union and especially since the coup in ukraine 7 years ago so therefore i have to conclude pizza that the americans and the british instructed the lackeys sent here to deploy significant numbers of the ukrainian troops and ukrainian military hardware to the donbass so the test the response of the kremlin to test the readiness of the russian military the americans and the british were not relinquished ukraine easily they are as. absolutely adamant that ukraine who

and nato are so encircled off on its western boots it's a very dangerous policy of the americans and the british plane here but whilst i believe that the secretary of state in the national security adviser is appointed themselves our ignorance about russian history i don't believe the people in the russia desk in the state department and also in the foreign office are ignorance out just how important ukraine is to russia you know the market and we did see a bit of a stand down i mean the exercises were going into the black sea were kind of put on hold maybe even canceled a somebodies saying something here but i mean look we look at the media narrative and it's really quite extraordinary they did it it's right it's whoa what reacting to russian aggression is if you can be aggressive when you're moving troops within your own country that's never properly explained i don't understand it either

because there's no logical answer towards it but i mean i think marcus is on something here and i think this is testing resolve and i think they've got an answer there's a lot of resolve year the interesting thing for me is that the all the biggest loser in all of this is obviously ukraine but i guess the policymakers in washington in london don't care about that go ahead mark you know i think that this is the basic problem is that. the western states have not really understood that this is all vitally important to russia and even if you take the negative russia's role since 2000. it still makes and so what do we want outwards do we want to have a conflict with russia now it would be suicidal. but also we can see if you're trying to win with somebody music ok and they think it's proper but. then you are going to. open a real punch and i think fortunately perhaps rhubarb states and some who worships the black sea. the americans. don't want to raise the stakes too high and then on

themselves i mean to retreat or requesting. more problematic still of this correctly or don't want any of our discussion is but will leave school important on don't trump us amateur unpredictable and so on and his foreign policy it turns out in so far as was any continuity with its well they carry on with it or else it would also carry on what we think you know how much richer it was is a whole more bizarre because. when can obama national security have been in her. years including the case of them come back it's going to ninety's so we we finally mustn't missing a puzzle these were supposed to be the people who return professionalism and predictability are well lot of foreign policy and certainly in the past 3 months they behave as though they all declined to trump in rank outsiders and bizarre weirdos that we were taught to think oh well the disaster behind trump's foreign polls so they. can keep going to be stupid so what then you can say is if you or

any other guy not just in moscow beijing but even if you're in paris berlin you have to also as well what do we sign on to with these people for fear that you are within a few weeks of. the policies changed. here you might get a marcus absolutely right here i mean in the help azhar is it for you is that you know when there was the call between the russian in the in the american president we saw escalation on the nato side and there are so there sara good in this case ukraine and after the phone call we're told maybe there could be a summit here i mean why when the world with the russians sit down for a summit after the antics that we have seen relative ease of the ukraine for weeks now i mean we we have the cranium president talking with french media i mean basically throwing down the gauntlet and mesa. please also saying you know this is

it's all or nothing i mean we're in. nato now irrespective of the rules of in train the alliance or it is a catastrophic war i mean what kind of sarah get is that and what does it say exactly what mark was saying the kind of normal and normalization of our policy and stability here i mean it's a mockery of all this is just one big mess that never should have happened in the 1st place mark as one of the opinion it's of that biden's proposal which here in his telephone conversation with ericsson to 'd a range of meeting in which that survey says can discuss ukraine was merely a propaganda exercise by the americans and the americans and of course the british have projects it's so their respective audiences and so the rest of the world the current crisis of ukraine was about wide. and a mass in all the russian forces close to the buddha with ukraine with the intent

of invade in russia and of course the americans who are as we all know the guardians of peace in the world the guardians of democracy are trying to talk with president hu since a result of it now because that's nothing but a propaganda exercise but i must also say this pizza i don't actually believe that i didn't actually backed down as some western commentators are saying not i believe the americans knew what the response of the russians was going to be in london and washington so no very well russia is not going so cough when it comes to ukraine it is simply too personal for russia culturally and in terms of its national security i would also corroborate my argument by saying base firstly was the decision was taken to cancel that deployed. it's of that sort

american warships to the black sea the americans a still going ahead in operating the ukrainian police over nikolayev and logical to accommodate american warships secondly it is now being group in britain the to some point this may though who may be will be deploying warships of its own so the black sea so i don't think behind and back down i think it was a call again direct as honest and as a center here in the program has been the readiness of the russian military you know where. the when when the americans and the british knocked about the new grain sovereignty i think they have a very short memory or there does blaine's because. it's more of the february who in 2014 let's remember this year correct me if i'm wrong but look around has been done in crimea was part of ukraine after the coup then the crimea

and they voted with their feet quite literally and then the people of what we call the donbass were aware of the subject of a military assault were up to $14000.00 people were killed so when they're talking about protecting ukraine's sovereignty i would think victoria nuland is probably the biggest agree just offender in violator of ukraine's sovereignty correct me if i'm wrong. but in 2014 the west at this the russians and in a sense were a retreat to moscow well $989.00 onwards and they would continue to do so. much harder than they were and also has to pretty in ukraine and be a big thing and therefore you could have a centrist small scale of people in here where a few 1000 people with the government and everybody else. and it turned out that wasn't the case and it was the russian state was not prepared to see russian speakers. we are now subjected to people who were using the rhetoric and they were

russian language making so russian. i think the problem with the west being that we were able to think through who might all right laura prima who are friends are. in fact in a situation knowing who your friends are knowing whether the people you hold the same views the same ground whose that you think they do well who have the same policies and same agenda you want is a really important question to go. and it may be that people in. this but all public opinion is very much on the view that there's a proxy democratic ukraine place to crash a credit. and it fails to see whatever problems are in crimea there is no stick with that which is those ukrainian nationalist home right forces that actions including trouble with russia the group because they want to draw the west into. what i want you to hold this is not you're not going to

heartbreak and that's about heartbreak in your discussion of american foreign policy state. it's been decades since the fall of spain's fascist regime but old wounds still have until i'm going to go alone into the bottom is pretty famous. because for me from a joke to you i. can only suppose. to me on the bus at us is mean older than just the same question which we know. of newborn babies were torn from their mothers and given away and forced adoption that only. my own role as a fellow mentor to this day mothers still search for grown children while adults look in hope for their birth parents. the world is driven by a dream shaped by phone person or those words. the

dares thinks. we dare to ask. seem wrong all but all all just all. the world that is yet to shape out just they become agitated and engagement because betrayal.

when so many find themselves worlds apart we choose to look for common ground. welcome to cross top where all things are considered i'm peter lavelle this is the home edition and we're discussing american foreign policy. goes go back to mark an avs are you really we're going to the break i'd like you to finish your point go right ahead i think there is the risk that the title white dog let those ukrainians who essentially to preserve inside ukraine and to assert themselves as to a conflict with russia will drag in the west and make them. come apart now

this if you are serious and i might be but but isn't that mean that if the thing is as i do stay in the geo political gambit because essentially. no matter what the outcome politically it say it's bad for russia ok. if there if the donbass is attacked by ukrainian forces. russia will react as made it very clear this is a red line here ukrainian military will be damaged severely flawed annihilated ok but russia will be quote unquote dene the the aggressor ok so i mean it's kind of no matter what happens if there is a military a initiative the outcome is a political defeat for russia but in between in that logic is a lot of ukrainians are could die as well here see and that's what i find really perplexing here i mean i think really willing to do that because it is the end skis standing wolf you will have lost a war he will be out ok and then you have this virulent nationalists will probably

take even a stronger position of marcus' what they you know want me to do my scenario does it make any sense to go to. the americans and the british can do nothing for ukraine insolvency like they can nothing for the wealthy. of the average ukrainian man and woman what they seek in ukraine is to enclose a loss on its western borders and in a so innocent javier where ukraine is a member of nato then the russian federation on its west the old 60 so the black sea. and circles and neighed so eventually the dominance may fall in the black sea just take a map ounce and look at ukraine's coastline if ukraine was in nato or nato warships from odessa all the way to the sea of azoff would be a menace and not just the russian black sea fleet russian national security in

general needs ok nice things let me jump in here because there's a we're talking about and this is what speculate about ukraine in nato market what kind of ukraine i mean ukraine without the donbass ukraine without crimea i mean and then that is a violation of nato zone rules because a country cannot become a member of it has territorial disputes with its neighbors here nato is probably couldn't break its own rules and rewrite them in a and it's i don't put that past them but if there is a military conflict it is not going to be the donbass the meat maybe it's all the way to cut it off ok i mean because if you look at it from the russian side i mean if this is how you want to play then we're going to great we're going to look after our security interests of let's look at what happened in in georgia in 2008 i mean said to you it was liberated then russian forces went all the way down to gori not to occupy it not to keep it but to knock out all of the sensitive and as

a quip and was there as were estimated worth to be a $1000000000.00 and if they had real headache with that one there i mean what's the history does repeat itself at times and i see this here too so i mean what kind of ramps. state are we talking about when it comes to ukraine. the tragedy of ukraine is not just seems to. be wrong life has been getting well life expectancy infant and so on. and so that's a big problem in the ukraine could have real would have its internal system for instance maybe. didn't do we necessarily want but it's the molding just another way also talking about that conflict is that of course both western military equipment and western training. in-situ in western ukraine but the problem is the basin's tent missiles and other weapons would almost something to the targets in a war between russia and ukraine so we nato personnel.

in the. crimea. who are issued significant numbers of nato military trainers and so on and military equipment in ukraine would be almost a nickel actually. i'm not maybe that would deter russia respond but i think since 2008 for instance over georgia. the idea of russia would be passed in. a conflict at any cost to be a mistake and so even if you take those of the most. nations and. you have to also ask what is the kremlin's base of interest that is to russia was. and to. make clear that it isn't a popular it's going to. be a monthly rate. and as a project once you have a conflict the risk of escalation is there and the simple reality is that for russia it's like the issue absence of the cross repressive government but it's not

who are death issue west nor pans. so what where does that leave us it leaves us in situation we might find ourselves revoking a major conflict and i want to back out of that is not always easy to do once you start a fight you can't you can't lay down the ground rules that's right that's why we call it the fog of war marcus i mean looking at it at secretaries they plane can and sullivan here are they ideologues in your mind are they opportunists do they think in geopolitical terms because you know we you know sullivan said he wanted to have a foreign policy for the middle class which if they wanted to get more close the middle class they would end all these wars and stop killing young men and women in wasting all the money and maybe put a little money into infrastructure i mean what do you make of these people because personally and to say it straight out i think these people are low octane thinkers go ahead marcus i agree with your analysis of the data and i also do not consider

them absolute be in selection i've been saying this for a number of years now that the caliber of politicians in america and in britain cannot be compared with the caliber in both countries from say 1st c. or 40 years ago and in regard to the current circuit your states are the guards of the commons national security advisor are they are ideologues well maybe in the sense that they believe in american blue supremacy they believe in american exceptionalism that they believe that the well it is divided between good and bad and the good is the west. is is the east principly russia and i think on that basis they will because surely their policy which they have which they inherited from the trumpet ministration i say the trumpet ministers and i don't say drum which the trumpet ministration inherited from the obama administration which there are of ministration inherited from the bush

administration. and so on and i quickly want to say peter that in the gutter ukrainian membership of the major you're right you nato could bend its own rules 'd to accommodate ukraine into the military bloc and i think it's far more likely ukrainian government could sit down with its masters in washington the london and decide that it's time to redraw the national borders we're not going to but they know they are not. they know they will not retrieve a 3rd of the net and the further ganske which is gone if they have to redraw their national borders then yes theoretically the road is open for them joining nato and i also want to say there is no tension between ukraine and russia there is tension between the ukrainian authorities and the russian government the only area of ukraine you will find really in abundance runs as he runs consensus and is in goal

is the is in ivana frank is in turn a pole if it's not just on the left ankle the mic where you find a very production of crows so if it's also on the right of the river beneath if you go to a desa the people there largely speaking will say odessa is a russian old which is historically accurate so there is no tension between the ukrainian people by and large and the russian people there is only tension between the ukrainian authorities and the russian authorities the ukrainian authorities are lackeys they are willing to say the destruction of their own country which is an artificial one for the sake of the military boots they are receiving from russia wasn't and london you know market one of the things that again i suppose i'm really perplexing is that if there is a complicated it is resolved in the way that marcus is just suggested here it doesn't mean tensions will go away why would anyone want to invest money in ukraine

when there are tensions still with one of its neighbors here. and of course russia is going to make it very very difficult for nato membership here i mean it seems to me it doesn't solve any of ukraine's problems whatsoever and i don't see the european union particularly interested in bringing new crane on board ok because of the governance issue it's a lot of agriculture i mean that really doesn't serve any purpose for the for the e.u. when it has its own structural problems right now i mean if i'm just kind of mystified i guess it's kind of like the saakashvili you know phenomenon you know that he believes all these really wonderful stories and the little trinkets they put in front of him but it didn't it didn't solve any of george's problems either i just again that's why i asked of these people ideologues of the opportunists how would you describe them go ahead well the basic problem for the political elites in here is because it doesn't run it's to revive the economy after all it is the whole dependent on the rest of it and by the way also on facebook as john's art so also

we're also. and so you have a situation that will be move the citizens which were whole series or most improvement typical of your life improvement in the getting rid of corruption once all getting little siphoning the money out into our bank accounts that you get a real guards and all are being put on the back and as you say this is not just the cranes trying to president george or it's a soviet republic that's seen just particular in the e.u. now so wait a minute do we really want to take on the burden the paying these countries to reach all standards but i believe particularly when you have this irony of the british role pushing these countries to join the e.u. or pushing well the e.u. . well the british would look at withdrawals from the e.u. won't be paying into the budget so in fact the resources available to the war we want peace we can only integration with these. much diminished. crisis and economic downturns. so we have this base which besets western leadership which is the

inability to draw to go strolls military policy or all seek a moment we'll see what is in our interests what are our ideology and principled aspirations and so we see this internally waving in the wind or sometimes being very assertive and aggressive in all of them back you know statement comes visit to a dentist what would you say if you have to cite comments like i reassure you will find a new you but we'll leave it. if it's a waste of a sort of a nonsense. gentlemen that's all the time we have a want to be my guest in london and in oxford and i want to thank our viewers for watching us here narky see you next time remember the goals. at the. the. the.

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to something wonderful very often fix it up to something terrible. trying to medicate life itself i just think i was and i was just scared i was a scared little girl i was 24 and like. the didn't have to be so complicated. trainee medics in france are pushed to the breaking point by the pandemic with one in turn committing suicide every 18 days on average according to a doctor's union. pharmaceutical giant pfizer the cost of its cold vaccine by 60 percent in the e.u. in a stark u. turn at a time of severe shortages in. the czech republic accuses russia of orchestrating an explosion back in 2014 but rules out of state terrorism and refuses.