alarming rain, and the government is telling us that don't believe your eyes, that that's some place. and people are starting to question whether or not their governments might or might not be out of their mind. well, certainly, if the fed is saying it is all transitory, right, this is just transitory inflation. it will all settle out. but the thing we've been looking at is the mindset because remember, all that fed speak is about controlling the psychology of the population, keeping them, you know, convinced that the fed and the treasury have everything under control. well, car and truck sales show, the inflation mind set has changed. consumers are willing to pay a lot more generating not only record sales, but also record growth profits. this change in the inflation mindset is likely not temporary. so, you know, we'll richter over at wall street dot com,

he is from his background is an automobile field sale. so he loves this sector and has a lot of great data here with the auto sales. he says that record new vehicle retail sales, despite flashed incentives by automakers, record new vehicle, transaction prices, spiking used vehicle prices and trade and values. very tight inventories on popular models and record dealer profits. that's what stimulus and stock market gains along with supply disruptions produced. and may, it has inflation written all over it as the whole mindset has changed. well, you know, this is amazing because i'm very happy to when we get rid of all the central banks, because, for example, when people are saving money, they say the reason we have deflation is because people are saving money. so we're going to have to print lots of money then when people are consuming and doing so at

a, at a, at a rate in response to that printed money. the central bank says, well, you know what people are consuming, too quickly. they're causing the inflation and nothing to do with their money printing. and so the response, by the way, will be to print more money, but they're going to call on a different policy than quantitative easing or monetization of debt. they're going to call it something different. and they'll refuse to accept saturdays inflation. they won't call it inflation. prices will continue to go out. one price of food has a certain critical level. you're going to have riots everywhere as you always do throughout history, but they will call inflation. and so we're on the verge now of a global insurrection against banker occupation. this is what we've been predicting now for 10 years. it will be caused by inflationary depression, by money printing. the escape valve is bitcoin, as christina guard herself admitted and made

a very articulate point about that big coin is the escape from our policies, as she said. and what we said was going to happen is now on falling before our very eyes. yeah, and remember we talked about the fact that michael burry the hedge fund manager who had done the big short back in the last financial crisis. well, remember, he is prayer, preparing for hyper inflation. and he is preparing by shorting us treasury is, which is a remarkable thing to do. but, you know, he always compares right now to why mar germany. and you do see that interesting, really speculative, crazy. but the kids on robin hood and taking on you know, game stop and then amc has been going bizarre over the past week. so this could be a very interesting summer. it could be like back in the days of the sixties and seventies, in terms of how unusual things might get right back on the 6 days people used to

burn their draft cards in response to the vietnam war. and the sad tragedy of a state gone mad here there on robin, a trading mean stocks, the equivalent, it's a protest to protest against the state gone crazy. and the ultimate protest is bitcoin and is available globally. i read a funny thing on twitter where somebody said, imagine having spent like $200000.00 on an m b a from some top business school, only to see all your analysis and how you look at the, you know, the balance sheet of any corporation you're thinking of investing and when mean stocks of just out perform you what we call this a couple of years ago we started referring to the bermuda triangle of finance because of the interest rates are 0, then there is no gage there is now radar. there is no way to determine future cash flows and apply any kind of a discount, right? because your price of money is 0 and some cases down negative. so that leads to

mean stocks that leads to swarms of robin hood. traders like murmur, ations of starlings in the sky. simply moving in and out of name the willy nilly without any rhyme or reason. and bad, a post modern post capitalist society, an empire on the verge of collapse. so why mar germany? look at the hyper consumption and anybody buying anything they can while they can. things feel good at the beginning and well back to the the car and truck sector, the average transaction price, which is called the atp of new vehicle sold to retail. consumers may reached a record $38255.00 according to j. d power estimates the a t p as a function of the price of new vehicle sold to retail customers and of the mix of new vehicle sold the shift to hire and trucks. and su bees that we have been seeing a recent month to help push up the atp the chart based on the data provided by j. d power shows the month, june and december,

and every year except in 2021. when it shows the atp for may, so as you see the price, the average transaction price is jumping as almost exclusively to people just really buying all those su v's and add it away. higher markup, the automakers are making a huge markup on those compared to what, like, almost twice as much as what they make on a sedan in terms of how much they mark it up. but people are not. there are no incentives. cardelia who are not having to offer incentives, people feel very wealthy, their house prices are going up. they're getting so much stimulus. their paychecks are going up with, you know, they enhance unemployment benefits. so people are out there spending and they're, and that's that the mindset that is really crucial. well, they have no confidence in the us dollar. they traded like confetti in member or 20 years ago. so the beanie baby craze. now people spend a $1000.00 for a beanie baby or something like this. now we've got that same mentality applied to

cars and trucks and houses and other vital components of the economy. there is simply no end to the money printing. lot of people can access it for 0 cost, and so they're out there splurging it without any thought about how this relates to their life. and the result is an economy that is disintegrating in real time and causing social unrest, social problems, political uncertainty, social cohesion problems, and lots of other systemic and debilitating societal ills that have resulted in a weakened state of the psyche of the nation and will be able to compete against other countries in the world going forward. my bet is going to be challenging. right. and again, back to the why mar, germany sort of situation. you do see like it's, it's bizarre or perhaps that makes perfect sense. but consumption gone into

overdrive and prices have gone into overdrive whether it's the property prices, automobile prices, usually automobiles that they, they famously you drive off a lot and they drop by 2030 percent and value. well, you see that on twitter, it look at people talking about their car value is like they bought a car 3 years ago. they put 30000 miles on it. and now it's actually worth more than what they bought. it if they sold it in the, in the u, happening on the whole sales corporate market. so jeff bought whole foods. he bought m g m films and it cost them nothing because the cost of financing was 0. louis that tall bought tiffany jewelers for less than nothing. they seem to be paid them to buy that company. so it's happening on the multi $1000000000.00 level. so it's happening also on the retail level with cars and trucks. so nothing is going to stop inflation now it's becoming y mar, germany and a lot of respects. and i think if you look at the history, why mar germany, it was really compressed into a 12 month period where you solve the say,

the currency add a one to one relationship with gold. it eventually went over a 1000000000 to one. and i think if you look what's happening in these other countries like venezuela and turkey, and we're going to see something similar to the us dollar. you could see that it does it. you know, that the hyperinflation mindset where it's, it's total euphoria at the beginning. so you see like once something gets set in motion, so like the fact that so many westerners in particular are focused on their house price and they feel rich when it is going up and price. even though the costs of maintaining and taxes and all that sort of stuff and the, the next generation gets locked out. but you see like if people are thinking like, ok, i'm gonna go buy this car. there's no risk to me, right? because i'm going to drive it off the lot. i'm going to drive it for 3 years, going to put 3040000 miles on it and i'm going to actually sell it for more. once i get in analogy, once i remember the coke machine was broken and giving out free drinks, yes. and so very quickly, a crowd assemble. yep. and they were and all the free drinks. then of course i ran

out of drinks. yes. and it took months and months to get the thing repaired. so here in america, you've got people get the free stuff. but now the economy is breaking down the shortages and chips and other vital components, the economy or not they're, they're breaking. so once that ultimately collapses, the time it takes to restart, this behemoth is going to be months and months and years and years potentially. and the rest of the world's gonna be like else america. we're 2nd century. you have the last century. we're taking the 21st century speaking to take and stuff. we've got to take a break. and when we come back, we're going to be here and it's going to be fantastic. so don't go away. the me ah

ah, me. ah. oh i met my little weekend and wanted to get me because you

guys are not going to the the or up in the kitchen. the glass lip reaches out tomorrow. i gotta get my don't get a get. we'll put it on the show that the lady said, well, i mean he really like he done this me body by little by now by and then because you guys are not the man who make no certainly no borders and the blind to nationalities

as emerge. we don't have authority, we go to the back seen the whole world, leads to take action and be ready. people are judge, you know, governors crisis, we can do better, we should be better. everyone is contributing each in our own way. but we also know that this crisis will not go on forever. the challenge is paid for the response has been massive. so many good people are helping us. it makes us feel very proud that we are together. now the me welcome back to the cost report.

i my size or time now to return to our conversation with michael pet though, a pet the port dot com. michael, welcome back. thank you. so in the 1st segment, we were talking about bond market and a lot of what we're talking about falls under the category of price signals are broken, for example, and they go into negative interest rates that hadn't been done or very rarely done in the past. and it's very confusing for a players in the market yourself. included being a money manager, you rely on price signals or something you can on to allocate capital. so are, are all price signals broken or can for. and additionally, maybe there's some signals that you key in on that are giving some good feedback. michael. well, i look at even spreads. i look at the c r b index saw lumber prices, oil prices got the prices on prices. oh, by the way, the state doesn't really count. you're very easy just to look at zillow and say, what are the home prices up your rear? oh, i'll use that as my inflation and they say, gee,

what do you think you can read your whole? you know, what do you think? so, you know, i'll get real mortgage. whatever is left of the free market. those real indicators . and they've been johnny for quite a long time. there were inflationary spike. my point of view is this. i don't look in the rear view mirror. i love shore. and what i see coming forward, especially to 22, is the end of fiscal and monetary support. and that's going to have on this nation and unprecedented as the stock market. and there's an echo bubble. busy and real estate market. busy to and of course we've been talking about it is the bond market . so if i believe that we're going to have a just inflationary environment rear thankfully towards the end of this year. and it's, it's wanting to, and i think that is very likely going to enjoy out out deflationary environ, to thousands. why did you as the spend winds down is quantitative easing program.

and we end up with a good you know, i would say we have one of the worst credit market catastrophe had, including the great financial crisis with 2000. and that's how i shall devastating i think it's mark is going to be, i just wanna say, just in my defense, people belong to the angel. don't forget, in 2019 the retail market froze completely. that's before we before we had interest rates, no interest rates back them went to 2 and a half percent on the fed bus rate to not 5 quarter like it wasn't in december of 2007, 2 and a half percent. and that was enough because the train to fall of the tracks you can on a train to go. busy off the rails, so i think we're going to have a credit ratio like we have never seen before, even worse, 2008. and that is very deflationary nature. watch to see what happens is what the

bed tries to n q. we normalize interest rates, watch what happens to the rebut market and the credit mark. what happens with our congress, if they try to unwind u b. i and all this free money that americans are getting the, you know, if you're staying at home, they're something like $18000000.00 people still unemployed and they're collecting $300.00 and hands on employment benefits. there are now massive shortages of labor across the united states. like, how do they unwind that free money? what they're already reward and warning and say, here's where reasons why i think we're going to have a deflationary problems. you 1022. and i think to help, let's just say j printed in 2020 to 2021. they printed the fed, printed 3 and a half $1000000.00 tells the extension balance sheet the following year, which is this year we have. we're going to include increased value by $1400000.00.

if we don't start to bounce sheet the next year, we're going to do something in the hundreds of 1000000000 as the same thing with the helicopter money. you know, people are no longer getting $100.00 checks in the mail. 21 states has ended enhanced. you should be $600.00 to $300.00 now it's going to be 0. and september more. there is no war. and here and here the child tax credit was english, which was increased. that goes away the end of this year. so there's going to be no money. there's no limit, there's gonna be no trail. jack spread it as a very difficult to get anything substantial, anything close to the 6 trillion dollars? i mean, it'll just be a few $100000000000.00 in nature past. i will forget you have the jeremy from west virginia is going to walk. a lot of things in the senate and a huge, massive spending program is a moderate democrat. so i think we're going to have

a just full monetary question to do. and why did we, why do we have this inflation problem now when we didn't have it? because we gave money directly to people. and we gave more money to people that they had a job which 45 percent of the people who are making more, staying home, not producing goods and services was put sure all this money for. so once people go back to work about that, should these a little bit, they're going to be making even less money than they were staying home. so i don't see the inflation problem really coming to us to the, for in till we have the next crisis. then, station, you're going to see the universe will base again come modern monetary theory. it up permanent based republicans and democrats will send to it. that's going to be your queue or intractable inflation. and it will be your queue for

bond yields on the long duration side of it to become a gland. and here's the thing i was just redo it, there's no, you know, the idea that anybody in this country has a central bank to nail any in place. your age is ridiculous. we'll talk about the seventy's inflation being where it was in the 72 reginald reverie asking commission, you know, if you measured inflation correctly, whereas where we were in the 70s, but think about where each rates had to go under paul walker. yeah, j, they said rated 20 percent to kill inflation. if you imagine what a 20 percent or even back either percent, funds rate would do real estate market. the stock market today. so the credit mark today, it's unthinkable. but inflation as

a way of getting out of control percent says, you know, here's my, here's my favorite thing. well, we're, we're brain a little brain or we have been tools general, how we have the tools. well, i said good if you want to wish and i should because out of control, let me see jack, your bunch rate what we and let me see what happens is she will that change them to change their mind on top of the u. b. i or these and have unemployment checks and all the stimulus checks going out to him. most american families. there has also been a rent and mortgage moratorium and then so the end of the year. so some of these, some people have gone to years by the point this ends without having almost 2 years without having today any rent or mortgage. clearly they're not going to have been like saving up that money and plan to pay back one day. so like, what happens at that point when that when they have to pay such a genius davis,

i know, i know that's why we do live interviews. you can't remember everything. but starting in march of 2020, we had this mortgage for parents, right? you'd have to pay your mortgage. those extended out to 18 months. so starting in the fall, not only will people no longer have their enhanced women, or will they have their child just spread it in december, or they're not the person helicopter money. they're going to have the store making mortgage payment. what about the 18 months in a rooms that they have a day? so i don't think that the pay $1.00 long song, but they're going to have to start making, you know, advertising that over short period of time. so people are going to have their savings drawn down very, very quickly. in the latter portion of 2021, 22, which is very deflationary because you're paying back debt when you pay back to them. now, one of the most extraordinary signals of sorts is the one that people are making with their faith. mike, a wasting

a mass exodus from both new york and california in california. they've had their 1st population decline ever. michael, we can't help, but notice that you're still in new jersey, new jersey, new jersey. i want to ask, do you agree with the recent call that suggests that new jersey in fact has the best pizza in america line? i think i think best pizza and america at all neapolitan recipe for my grandmother . but, but to your point, i mean i try and i'm trying to buy a house, maybe like some of these programs and i get, he knows all you're buying a house and they were like, well, naples, florida? oh for sure. like 80 percent in the best you months? it's ridiculous. the real estate agent say there's just no body that's willing to sell their house because they can't sell the house because they sell their house was laid on dying. they have no place to live. you know place the right, this is the, this is the most still it would real estate market or 1st time homebuyers

completely shown as market. thank you. jerome po was trying to say, so kind of, you know, i, for dish than the economy between origin is often happen. and i don't see any way you're going to have 1st time home buyers get back into the real estate market. so raises fresh by 30 percent, like they did back in 2008, which by the way, is entirely possible that once again, even the underwriting standards are better iteration in the bubble reading up to the great recession. all price to income ratio have never been higher and inventory has never been lower. so you have an eco bubble. why we're in 20020032007. and the whole crisis will probably direct. and i think they can correct violently, predicated upon how low the stock market goes after. it's just a monetary class. iraq. yes, but as we were talking about the mortgage moratoriums,

a lot of that's part of the reason why we have such low inventory because they would be a lot of inventory is often usually, you know, people being evicted and losing their home. that's not there anymore. but again, like the problem is 2022 is mid terms. so what are the democrats going to do? they're going to extend, i believe, extend that moratorium on mortgages and rent because nobody wants a face, a pile of $1020000.00 that they suddenly owe the road to hell's favorite intentions . i mean, this is, i'm from the governor. i'm here to help, you know, you can, you know, mentioned the aphorism you want to mention, but not the damage, they've cost and the real estate market. i mean, even real reason realtor realtors aren't making any money because there's no volume . there's no transaction line. i'll walk pops up, it goes, it goes in one day cash, well above the offer and you know there's, there's no value in the transaction. but you, your wife,

say he absolutely or ashley wreck. they might extend the mortgage more. it's more him for a little bit. but what's on the other side of that ledger? does anybody ever asked what is happening to the person who is actually investing in these homes and rent it out? and it has received no income for 18 months, and so many people are in white rock and they're not firm. so the more some are just average people who say, boy, my boy in stock market decided to buy a 2nd home. i rented up speaking for them, but either change station either either way, even if you continue to route ruined the investor side of the balance sheet. it's not going to be enough to offset the massive just on monetary but for me to thousands. right. joe? again, shakes, trillion dollars was spent by the treasury in helicopter money in payments for people geelong corporate bonds,

birches. everything was under the sun except for stocks. all right, that is the only way it will. it cannot and will not be duplicated until we have another credit crisis, which is coming in wanting a landlord lives matter. hey, michael panto of best neapolitan pace. so chef on the east coast and america as rated by new york magazine and happy to make took you dinner at home. just call me up and i'll be happy to do that. thanks for being once again on the kaiser report. it both happy to be here. all right, well i was going to do this additional cost report with re max or stacy herbert want to thank i guess michael panto a panto port dot com until next time by the me ah,

in an entire village in alaska has had to move. if another country threaten to wipe out an american, we do everything in our part a project in today. escaping climate change poses the same threat right now. alaska has seen some of the fastest coastal erosion in the world. we lost about 35 feet 35 feet of ground in just about 3 months while we were measuring it is fast and that means the river is $35.00 pounds. then learning was year before i think we're part of america. there's from or america lose the

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a fight every day to meet your needs and the needs of your family. me or i see the sirens blasted from armored trucks grease solely. she's a new method of keeping migrant. so the e u 6, the bolster it's external borders also add on the program concerns about and over personal liberty as employers in the u. s. are total, they can require stuff to get vaccinated against kobe. the u. k. 2 is considering compulsory jobs for frontline, medical workers and american mainstream media. suddenly focus on a theory that the krona virus originated and chinese lab would journalists

admitting they'd previously dismissed it out of hand just because donald.