inflation, hyperinflation, inflation, inflation coming, and the 6 trillion dollar budget presented by a joe biden. so that's a 25 percent increase in the budget. and, you know, some people are saying, oh, it's going to be fine. janet yelling at the treasury says, you know, we have plenty of money, interest rates are going to stay low. so the government could afford all this, that many, on the other hand say, well this is going to drive inflation even higher. this one really caught my eye max, the cost to ship goods to europe from asia shot above a record $10000.00. these are the record shipping container rates from asia to europe. you see that parabolic move, that looks pretty bad. the prices of stuff are going up and people are mentioning this that the prices for energy, food, transportation are going up at a alarming rate. and the government is telling us that don't believe your eyes,

that that's thumb flacier. and people are starting to question whether or not their governments might or might not be out of their minds. well, certainly the fed is saying it is all transitory, right? this is just transitory inflation. it will all settle out. but the thing we've been looking at is the mindset because remember, all that sped speak is about controlling the psychology of the population. keeping them, you know, convinced that the fed and the treasury have everything under control. well, car and truck sales show, the inflation mind set has changed. consumers are willing to pay a lot more generating not only record sales, but also record growth profits. this change in the inflation mindset is likely not temporary. so, you know, well, richter over at wall street dot com, he is his background is an automobile field sale. so he loves this sector and has

a lot of great data here with the auto sales. he says that record new vehicle retail sales despite slashed incentives by automakers, record new vehicle, transaction prices, spiking used vehicle prices and trade and values. very tight inventories, unpopular models, and record dealer profits. that's what stimulus and stock market gains along with supply disruptions produced in may. it has inflation written all over it as the whole mindset has changed. well, you know, this is amazing because i'm very happy to when we get rid of all the central banks, because, for example, when people are saving money, they say the reason we have deflation is because people are saving money. so we're going to have to print lots of money then when people are consuming and doing so at a, at a, at a rate in response to that printed money. the central bank says, well,

you know what people are consuming, too quickly. they're causing the inflation and nothing to do with their money printing. and so the response, by the way, will be to print more money, but they're going to call on a different policy than quantitative easing or monetization of debt. they're going to call it something different. and they'll refuse to accept saturdays inflation. they won't call it inflation. prices will continue to go out. one price of food has a certain critical level. you're going to have riots everywhere as you always do throughout history, but they will call inflation. and so we're on the verge now of a global insurrection against banker occupation. this is what we've been predicting now for 10 years. it will be caused by inflationary depression, by money printing. the escape valve is bitcoin, as christina guard herself admitted and made a very articulate point about that big coin is the escape from our policies,

as she said. and what we said was going to happen is now on falling before our very eyes. yeah, and remember we talked about the fact that michael burry the. a hedge fund manager who had done the big short back in the last financial crisis. well, remember, he is prayer, preparing for hyper inflation. and he's preparing by shorting us treasury is, which is a remarkable thing to do. but you know, he always compares right now to why mar germany. and you do see that interesting, really speculative, crazy. but the kids on robin hood and taking on, you know, game stop. and then amc has been going bizarre over the past week. so this could be a very interesting summer, it could be like back in the days of the sixties and seventies in terms of how unusual things might get right back on the 6 days people used to burn their draft cards in response to the vietnam war. and the sad tragedy of

a state gone mad here there on robin, a trading mean stocks, the equivalent, it's a protest to protest against the state gone crazy. and the ultimate protest is bitcoin and is available globally. i read a funny thing on twitter where somebody said, imagine having spent like $200000.00 on an m b a from some top business school, only to see all your analysis and how you look at the, you know, the balance sheet of any corporation you're thinking of investing and when mean stocks of just out perform you what we call this a couple of years ago we started referring to the bermuda triangle of finance because of the interest rates are 0, then there is no gage there is now radar. there is no way to determine teacher cash flows and apply any kind of a discount, right? because your price of money is 0 in some cases down negative. so that leads to mean stocks that leads to swarms of robin hood. traders like murmur,

ations of starlings in the sky. simply moving in and out of name the willy nilly without any rhyme or reason. and bad, a post modern post capitalist society, an empire on the verge of collapse. so why am i germany? look at the hyper consumption and anybody buying anything they can while they can. things feel good at the beginning and well back to the the car and truck sector, the average transaction price, which is called the atp of new vehicle sold to retail consumers a may reached a record 38000 $255.00 according to j d power estimates the a t p as a function of the price of new vehicle sold to retail customers and of the mix of new vehicle sold the shift to hire and trucks. and su bees that we have been seeing a recent month to help push up the a t p. the chart based on the data provided by j. d power shows the month of june and december and every year except in 2021. when it shows the atp for may,

so as you see the price, the average transaction price is jumping and as almost exclusively to people just really buying all those su v's and add it away. higher markup, the automakers are making a huge markup on those compared to what, like, almost twice as much as what they make on a sedan in terms of how much they mark it up. but people are not. there are no incentives, car dealers who are not having to offer incentives. people feel very wealthy, their house prices are going up. they're getting so much stimulus, their paychecks are going up with, you know, they enhance unemployment benefits. so people are out there spending and they're, and that's that the mindset that is really crucial. well, they have no confidence in the us dollar. they traded like confetti in member or 20 years ago. so the beanie baby craze. now people have been the $1000.00 for a beanie baby or something like this. and now we've got that same mentality applied to cars and trucks and houses and other vital components of the economy. there's simply no end to the money printing. lot of people can access it for 0 cost,

and so they're out there splurging it without any thought about how this relates to their life. and the result is an economy that is disintegrating in real time and causing social unrest, social problems, political uncertainty, social cohesion problems, and lots of other systemic and debilitating societal ills that have resulted in a week in the state of the psyche of the nation. and will it be able to compete against other countries in the world going forward? my bet is going to be challenging. right? and again, back to the why mar, germany sort of situation. you do see like it's, it's bizarre or perhaps that makes perfect sense. but consumption has gone into overdrive and prices have gone into overdrive whether it's the property prices,

automobile prices, usually automobiles that they, they famously drive off a lot and they drop by 2030 percent and value. well you see that on twitter it look at people talking about their car value is like they bought a car 3 years ago. 2 they put 30000 miles on it, and now it's actually worth more than what they bought. it if they sold it in the, in the u. happening on the whole sales corporate market. so jeff bought whole foods, he bought m g m films and it cost them nothing because the cost of financing was 0 . louis very tall, bought tiffany jewelers for less than nothing. they seem to be paid them to buy that company. so it's happening on the multi $1000000000.00 level, so it's happening also on the retail level with cars and trucks. so nothing is going to stop inflation now. it's becoming y mar germany and a lot of respects. and i think if you look at the history y m r germany, it was really compressed into a 12 month period where you solve the say, the currency at a one to one relationship with gold. it eventually went over

a 1000000000 to one. and i think if you look what's happening in these other countries like man as well and turkey and you're going to see something similar to the us dollar. you can see that it does it. you know that the hyper inflation mindset where it's, it's total euphoria at the beginning. so you see like once something gets set in motion. so like the fact that so many westerners in particular are focused on their house price and they feel rich when it is going up and price. even though the costs of maintaining and taxes and all that sort of stuff. and the next generation gets locked out. but you see like if people are thinking like, ok, i'm gonna go buy this car. there's no risk to me, right? because i'm going to drive it off the lot. i'm going to drive it for 3 years, going to put 3040000 miles on it. and i'm going to actually sell it for more. once i get the analogy, once i remember the coke machine was broken and giving out free drinks. yes. and so very quickly, a crowd assemble. yeah. and they were taken all the free drinks. then of course, they ran out of drinks. yes. and it took months and months to get the thing

repaired. so here in america, you've got people get the free stuff. but now the economy is breaking down and see shortages and chips and other vital components. the economy or not they're, they're breaking. so once that ultimately collapses, the time it takes to restart, this behemoth is going to be months and months and years and years potentially. and the rest of the world's gonna be like else america. we're 2nd century. you have the last century, we're taking the 21st century speaking to take and stuff. we've got to take a break. and when we come back, we're going to be here and it's going to be fantastic. so don't go away. the me, ah, join me every 1st on the alex simon show and i'll be speaking to guess in the world, the politics sport. business. i'm show business. i'll see you then me.

i met my lovely weekend and obviously wanted them and johnny douglas gave me the gotta go through the the or up the kitchen table out them out. i got a good model. she will put it on the shoulder to lady meeting the brittany lackey. vendors, the, me up and everybody who bought by little my uncle by then because

you guys are not the man why or why not what i mean? what is the future of the republican party? is that future something donald trump will decide? critics of the g o p say there is no longer a political party, rather it is a call, a personality called focused on trunk. is this a winning strategy for the g o p? the me welcome back to the cause a report on my size or time now to return to our conversation with michael pinto up at the port dot com. michael, welcome back. thank you. so in the 1st segment, we were talking about bond market and a lot of what we're talking about falls under the category of price signals are

broken, for example, and they go into negative interest rates that haven't been done or very rarely done in the past. and it's very confusing for players in the market yourself. included being a money manager, you rely on price signals or something you can on to allocate capital. so are, are all price signals broken or can for. and additionally, maybe there isn't some signals that you key in on that are getting some good feedback. michael. well, i look at even spreads. i look at the c r b index saw lumber prices, oil prices got the prices on prices. oh, by the way, the state doesn't really count. you're very easy just to look at zillow and say, what are the whole prices up your rear? oh, i'll use that as my inflation and they say, gee, what do you think you can read your whole? you know, what do you think? so, you know, i don't get real mortgage. whatever is left of the free market, those real indicators. and they've been telling me for a long time that we're inflationary. like,

my point of view is this. i don't look in the rear view mirror island shore and what i see coming forward, especially to 22, is the end of fiscal and monetary support. and that's that, that's going to have on massive and unprecedented as the bubbles in the stock market. and there's an actual bubble. busy in real estate market to and of course the sense that we've been talking about it is the bond market. so if i believe that we're going to have a just inflationary environment rear thankfully towards the end of this year. and it's, it's wanting to, and i think that is very likely going to more into a, out and out deflationary wiring to thousands. why do as the spend winds down is warranty using program? and we end up with a good you know, i would say we have one of the worst credit market catastrophe we had, including the greatest financial crisis in 2000. and that's how i just devastated.

i think this mark is going to be, i just want to say just in my defense with people being on def angel, don't forget and 2019 the retail market froze completely. that's before we had told me that before we had interest rates, interest rates back then we went to 2 and a half percent on the fed funds rate to not 5 quarter like it wasn't in december 2007, 2 and a half percent. and that was enough because the train, the fall of the tracks, you get on a train to go off the rails. so i think we're going to have a credit ratio like we have never seen before, even worse than 2008. and that is very deflationary nature. watch to see what happens is what it tries to n q a and normalize interest rates. watch what happens to the rebut market and the credit mark. what happens with our congress if they try to unwind

u b. i and all this free money that americans are getting the, you know, if you're staying at home, they're something like $18000000.00 people still unemployed and they're collecting $300.00 and has unemployment benefits. there are now massive shortages of labor across the united states. like, how do they unwind that free money? what they're already reward and warning it stacy as well reasons why i think we're going to have a deflationary problems. you thousands warning children. i think let's just say j printed in 2020 to 2021. they printed the fed bridge in spring and a half $1000000.00. so the extension of the balance sheet, the following year, which is this year we have, we're going to include increased value by $1400000.00. if we don't start to take the balance sheet the next year we're going to do something in the hundreds of 1000000000 as the same thing with the helicopter money. you know, people are no longer getting checked. the mail 21 states had ended enhanced. what

we should be 600 when i went to 300, now it's going to be 0. and september more. there is no war enhanced here in the child tax credit was which was increased. that goes away the end of this year. so there's going to be no money. there's gonna be no limit. there's going to be no child, jack, spread it as a very difficult to get anything substantial, anything close to the 6 trillion dollars? i mean, it'll just be a few $100000000000.00 in nature past will forget you have the german from west virginia is going to walk. a lot of things in the senate and a huge, massive spending program is a moderate democrat. so i think we're going to have a just full monetary question to like do and why did we, why do we have this in place in problem now when we didn't have it because we gave money directly to people and we gave more money to people that they had a job which 45 percent of the people who are making more, staying home,

not reducing goods and services which could store all this money for. so once people go back to war about that, should these a little bit, they're going to be making even less money than they were staying home. so i don't see the inflation problem really coming to us to the, for in till we have the next crisis. then station, you're going to see universal base again come modern monetary theory. it up permanent based republicans and democrats will send to it. that's going to be your queue or intractable insulation. and it will be your queue for bond yields on the long duration side of it. to become a gland. and here's the thing i want to redo it. there's no, you know, the idea that anybody in this country has

a central bank to nail any in place. your rate is ridiculous, but we'll talk about the seventy's inflation being where it was in the 72 reginald revenue asking commission, you know, if you measured inflation correctly, whereas where we were in the 70s. but think about where interest rates had to go under paul walker. yes, j, they says lunch rate and 20 percent still inflation. you imagine what a 20 percent or even back, you know, percent funds rate would do real estate market. the stock market today should a credit mark today. it's unthinkable. but inflation as a way of getting out of control. the said says, you know, here's my, here's my favorite thing. well, we're, we're brain a little brain, or we have the tools general, how we have the tools. well, i said good if you want to wish and i should because out of control,

let me see jack your bunch rate quickly and let me see what happens is she will that change them to change their mind on top of the u. b. i or these and have unemployment checks and all the stimulus checks going out to him. most american families. there has also been a rent and mortgage moratorium. and then so the end of the year. so somebody, some people have gone to years by the point this ends without having almost 2 years without having today any rent or mortgage. clearly they're not going to have been like saving up that money and plan to pay back one day. so like, what happens at that point when that when they have to pay such a genius? i know, i know that's why you do live interviews. you can't remember everything but starting in march of 2001 and we had this mortgage for parents, right? you'd have to pay your mortgage that was extended out the 18 months. so starting in the fall, not only will people no longer have their canceling,

or will they have their child jack spread it in december, or they're not the person helicopter money. they're going to have store making mortgage payment. what about the 18 months in a room? so they have a day. so i don't think that the pay one long some, but the going to have to start making, you know, it was advertising over a period of time. so people are going to have their savings drawn down very, very quickly. in the latter portion of 2021 and it's $22.00, which is very deflationary because you're paying back that when you pay back to them. now one of the most extraordinary signals, so starts is the one that people are making with their faith, micah, wasting a mass access from both new york and california in california. they've had their 1st population decline ever. michael, we can't help, but notice that you're still in new jersey. the joy he new jersey. i go,

i want to ask. do you agree with the recent call that suggest that new jersey, in fact has the best pizza in america line? i think i make best pizza and america, digital media pauls and recipe for my grandmother. but, but to your point, i mean i try but i'm trying to buy a house to maybe like come on these programs and i get, he knows all you're buying a house and they were like, well, naples, florida? oh for sure. like 80 percent in the past few months. it's ridiculous. the real estate agent say there's just no body that's willing to sell their house because they can't sell the house because they sell their house on dying. they have no place to live or you know, place to read. this is the, this is the most bill. it would real estate market or 1st time. oh myers, been completely sure of market. thank you. jerome po was trying to take some kind of i for jason in the economy between it happen and i don't see any way you're going to have 1st time home buyers get back into the

real estate market. so precious breast by 30 percent, like they did back in 2008, which by the way is entirely possible that, that once again, even the underwriting standards are better iteration, the bubble reading up to the great recession. all christ income ratios have never been higher and inventory has never been lower. so you have an eco bubble. why we're in 20020032007. and the whole crisis will probably direct. and i think they could correct violently, predicated upon how low the stock market goes after. it's just a monetary class, right? yes. but as we were talking about the mortgage moratoriums, a lot of that's part of the reason why we have such low inventory because they would be a lot of inventory is often usually, you know, people being evicted and losing their home. that's not there anymore. but again,

like the problem is 2022 is mid terms. so what are the democrats going to do? they're going to extend, i believe i'll extend that moratorium on mortgages and rent because nobody wants a face, a pile of $1020000.00 that they suddenly owe the road to hell's favorite intentions . i mean, this is, i'm from the governor. i'm here to help you know, you can, you know, mentioned afterwards of you want to mention, but the damage they've cost in the real estate market. i mean, even real reason realtor realtors aren't making any money because there's no volume . there's no transaction line. i'll walk pops up, it goes, it goes in one day cash, well above the offer and you know there's, there's no value in the transaction. but you, your wife, say he absolutely or ashley wreck. they might extend the mortgage more. it's more him for a little bit. but what's on the other side of that ledger? does anybody ever asked what is happening to the person who is actually investing

in these homes and rent it out? and it has received no income for 18 months, and so many people are in white rock and they're not firm. so the more some are just average people who say, boy, my boy in stock market decided to buy a 2nd home. i rented up speaking for them, but either change station either either way, even if you continue to route ruined the investor side of the balance sheet. it's not going to be enough to offset a massive just on monetary what's coming to thousands. right. joe. again, shakes, trillion dollars was spent by the treasury in helicopter money in payments for people geelong corporate bonds, birches. everything was under the sun except for stocks. all right, that is the only way it will. it cannot and will not be duplicated until we have another credit crisis, which is coming and wanting to landlord lives matter. asked michael panto of best

neapolitan pizza chef on the east coast and america as rated by new york magazine and happy to make took you dinner at home. just call me up and you'll be happy to do that. thanks for being once again on the kaiser report. god bless you both. happy to be here. all right, well i was going to do this additional because a report with re max or stacy herbert want to thank i guess michael pasco, pasco port dot com until next time by the me me the oh,

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