i thought i was doing my best get back to school, which still will have the strongest appeal the ah, ah, ah ah, ah. hello, welcome to cross top, where all things are considered non peter lavelle, we are witnessing a significant and irreversible shift in the international system. is undeniable. we live in multiple the world to example. suffice the bite administrations, inability to hold the north stream too. and the recent china, us meeting great power politics is back

ah, discuss these issues and more, i'm joined by my guests, but decent and also use a professor at the university of south eastern norway as well as author of great power politics in the 4th industrial revolution. and here in moscow we cross to dmitri bob, she is a political analyst and editor it in us, me, internet media project, or gentleman cross talk roles and effect. that means you can jump in anytime you want. and i always appreciate it. okay, let's go to glenn. first, been off low, much has been talked about the, the north stream and the gas pipeline connecting russia to the german market. here . of course, in the american domestic context, it's a win for who, even though they don't understand the context of the story that it was germany, that actually wanted the pipeline in the 1st place. and it is a private initiative. it is not state the state. so, but, you know, be,

if you look at some of the reactions in western media, this is, this is just giving the russians another chance to commit aggression. they chose weakness on the west part. i mean, there's a fundamental misunderstanding of this story here. and unfortunately, she's feeling the worst possible fear mongering that we've been experiencing, particularly in the last 5 years though. i agree, i think that's a big misunderstanding around it again pertaining to russia weapon, for example, if it's quite extreme again, you want to also have to keep in mind that the point that was a german initiative, again, they want to to increase their energy security in order to in order to make sure that their, their industries remain competitive. energy security so much defined as reliable and cheap supply of energy. that's what the russians offer. so this was

a deal between the russian and german company. and then the next generation there is also an interesting narrative because they're not actually a part of this deal. how to enter this whole. so i go off by my threatening or blackmail in its own hours. because while the germans wanted more energy security, they went in sanctions against their i last and attempted to punish and obstruct or ability to increase their energy security. now this is the sale that if, as well so they've been actually doing to make any real concessions. and the pipeline, i think in my, on my day percent finished so and then again, bite has been very specifically this is not some generosity in the end of their, their punishment of germany and russia. because they, they fail to achieve their objectives. the pipeline is finished and they came to the conclusion is better to come out of this will saving some face and allows us

our relations with the germans and rushes and more so let's pretend, you know, we make a deal and that deal with between the americans and the germans also effectively the us listing bunch of conditions. and if the germans comply, then they will stop punishing the germans. so it's not so much of the deal and blackmail it's, it's quite extraordinary about the but again, the, the feedback the really strange because i'm not sure what else they were supposed to do. those of us know the story, draw the same conclusion, deem of the interesting thing is that the trump administration and the by the mystery, they kept invoking ukraine their new found friend here. but at the same time, the trump administration and even people within the bite administration or saying instead of buying russian gas, you bought the american l n g. which of course begs the question, well, what about your friend the ukranian. ok, i mean, none of this story makes any sense whatsoever. if you give it a western context,

go ahead. well, unfortunately, it's not just the american side. you know, in germany in france, britain, you have roughly the same absurd claims. you know, i'm just coaching. give is the german newspaper. mrs. merkel has depraved ukraine. i think just make sure that everyone was political in doing that space. and though this article was republished in the, in, in europe, in the u. k, for example, daily, expressly published if someone named maximilian took a former advisor to the british defense minas jeep. she said, he wrote in political that basically, while the united states will be having a war with china, think about having a war with china. poor jenn could attack europe and just take your defense just

because the space will be absorbed in a wall with china and all of these because over the last few project, team 2 because it will give money to portion. and so, which would be able to, after i'd vote, can just and watch and political a us, china war would likely absorb most if not all us economic and military capability. and consequently, caveat undermine its credibility to provide deterrence in europe. and because of the such, it will provide you with the march law for a peculiar to remedy your ashes, defeat at the end of the cold war in 1891. i mean, if this is more insane than what is and the problem is that the people who are such they are not guys from the street. you know, they are former advisors to the british defense ministry. they hi, blaze us a few show such as far cause, you know, she, she made similar claims about ukraine being sold out to the, to the russia and just shows you how absurd the western media and the

western political boss are becoming. the problem is the more essential people, they also have to change their opinions because there is such pressure from inside the army washer. they came to that for the germans, the chance to ship from the sheed. you was relatively, you know, so, but until recently i started making claims that the german you will have to punish russia if russia interprets the construction of a lot to him to. i think i and green light for. busy for pressure in ukraine, so i don't know where the some show that you will stop it was if you know, so glen, put this all in contact. the last couple of years, been ramp rabbit, anti russian offensive that they've been going on. particularly emanating from nato. i mean, they interpret this as a defeat. so i mean this,

this very powerful unity, unity, unity. they keep repeating over and over. i guess there really isn't. there is also, it's really kind of laughing. the facade here at the end of the day, you need reliable, cheap energy, ok, and all of their nonsense, of all their, their, their propaganda war just goes into, can go ahead. the core of this propaganda, though, it is the key arguments which everyone agrees on which is absurd to begin with, even the germans and americans, they will agree on this, on the mental thing that they all have to serve you crazy, right of transit. now this is repeated over and over again, right? so it means all russian gas to your, brushing your right to have this transitive through its territory and collect billions of dollars every year. is quite an absurd argument

against russia has any will. first of all, this pipeline makes perfect economic sense. the fact that they have to pay the bill of dollars every year to the koreans means about the german. then the rest of that something again from, from, from cutting out the middle man. but also it makes much more reliable. and this is why the germans initiated, but still they use pushing with arguments of russia unreliable supply, which means europe teams to cut her lines on russia. well, the russia, ukraine is unreliable, transit state and would like to have lists reliable. it's not. but again, this is interpretive of an energy weapon. if they deny ukraine, they're right, the transit because they have this divine right to have russian gas goes through their territory. and it's, it's quite extraordinary and even make it worse. over the years, ukraine has made great attempts to cut all social and economic ties to russia to reduce all dependence on ross. i mean, ever seen binding its books,

the stopping flies across the board, and the us every turn offloads this liberating and so for russia. but this one effort by russia to reduce its reliance on energy transferred through ukraine is deemed to be criminal. and again, consensus across the board. this makes perfect sense is, is quite extraordinary where this comes from. it. ok, let's, let's take these, the, the nato argument, you know, needs this, this is a win for needs. the money. ok as if other countries don't want russian gas because they do so. i mean if it is so very, very important to the kremlin, why would they cut off the supply? see that their logic does fails on every single metric. go ahead. oh yes, i agree with what glen just also because okay, let's take the figures. ukraine gets ration. friendship between $2.00 and $3000000000.00 a year. sorry about the joy of your credit was near in 50000000. it was 4948. now

it's less than 40, and a lot of people went to work in russia and the european union. the g and lack of full reduces the population. but still it's a big country, it's bigger than poland. if it is, of course, bigger than 100 check republic, it's a huge country. and the, and the top $3000000000.00 with a lot feed. what could feed it was used in the russian market and being a real bridge between russia and the you that could feed 40000000 people. but then you are a human ukraine that installed and so violently in 2012, sorry, 2014. they're doing everything and took up any time to rush. i mean, just a people may not know it in the west zelinski imposed sanctions on the hermitage

museum in saint petersburg. the landscape is both sanctions on the moscow state university. if you live in your crime, you can't have all those with these always asians. so this is the 1st argument. the 2nd argument is called you ok. the german green part u. s. as we learn from the national interest insists that the, you know, the pipeline should be commissioned and they initiate the legislation to prevent this pipeline from operating. ok. the greens are so much for how are they going to warm and feed germany without fossil fuels in the next 10 years, even if the so called transition is as short as they say, it really is going to be march longer. you still need to feed and war more than 18000000 people before we finish up your plan. also, i think the, the current fans contract ends in 2024. and the agreement that the, the,

the germans married to russia has the green new. what is, what, what, what rocky, what our germany say over any kind of transit relationship. russia has with ukraine. i mean, again, amazing part the americans and germans agreed that they should extend 10 years up to 2024 for agreement between russian company and the premium company is quite amazing. and they didn't even include russia in this conversation to come up with this deal. so we're going to break it up in the mail. they say oh, i join me every thursday and the alex summon show and

i'll be speaking to guess in the world, the politics, sport, business and show business. i'll see you then me in the old days before breaks it because the u. k. was attached to the e u. they could do it. other countries do, which is to take all their debts and dump it into this giant shadow banking system that covers the world's largest trading block. and you could kind of buy some time there because the c b is printing and buying and monetizing debt by the trillion. christine the garden, literally just buying trillion control of the garbage debt. but now post practice, they don't have that way to wash the debts into the greater he, you laundromat. and so that is going to for the 1st time post break, the debts are going to start to cause a lot of pain the

the, the welcome at the cross up were all things are considered. peter lavelle, this is the home addition to remind you were discussing some real news the the let's change gears gentlemen here. we have the 2nd high, low on the 2nd high level meeting that the united states in china had. this is on the back of the disaster in anchorage earlier in the year. a lot of language went into it from both sides and fences. that was intentional. it was a max melissa, and of course they're playing to their domestic audiences. but they both came away from it probably with very little understanding, almost certainly no agreement. but there is the recognition that we have to really

start talking and start talking seriously. am i wrong? maybe this is a opening for some realism here, or is this going to just spiral? we haven't hit bottom yet, but it's going to continue to spiral your thoughts. go ahead. i think is going to continue to spiral because on the american side, we're not in the logical pregnant. we're in the laundry or ideology. i mean, from the big major point of view, it makes absolutely no sense for the united states to have a quarrel with china or to have a quarrel with russia. but i guess logically, yes, these are authoritarian countries and by them keeps repeating every week that there is going to be a huge confrontation between democracy is and, or the craig regimes. if unavoidable, you know, and if you says it's no dog, yes, it is no dual because even,

you know that way just you will be the 3rd. yes. you know, the russian bolsheviks who are absolutely, i go with the will. they believed in peaceful coexistence way that the soul get this readings. then you, i joined, you know how to do, but like georgia in the united states use a don't believe in it. you know, we have the 2nd crowd of american chinese talks. you know, there was when you're sherman dead, you just sectors. they stayed on the american side. the chinese were put off by this because they expect at least someone like anthony blame, if not mr. barbie, i'm so ok if they sound such all our officials, the chinese also represented by a level official found, you know, the deputy foreign minister or the, the main foreign minister. and basically what did we hear? the chinese just said that the right to stay true. store is dangerous if it's dangerous because economically it's a disaster. i think everyone themselves and militarily, essentially,

because they're not the states are trying to check chinese aggression in south china seas and east china seas. i mean, just look at the job. chinese aggression in the south during the sea is prevented by country what a that you tens of thousands of miles away from that, right? how can this be? where is the want to hear? good, go ahead of it because, i mean the 2 countries are at loggerheads, but i mean at least even if it was absolutely right to point out a lower level than probably should be if it wasn't appropriate. and i think that obviously the chinese that, that as a slight here, but there is a reckoning on both sides. that it either we continue the spiral down with unintended consequences or start facing up to the fact that this is going to be a long log ahead. if we want to avoid them a serious conflict including

a military. com. go ahead. yeah, no, i think there's a recognition that they need diplomacy, but again, what are the achieve and how much rooms for maneuver is there? because us has been there opened that it will have the same format in purpose for diplomacy towards china. as with russia, which is us, will corporate all in areas where the us interests in all other areas will seek to come from china. and that's kind of limits the, the scope of diplomacy. and i agree to a large extent with the moment i don't think ology is the driving variable here. i think the u. s. it's rather it's instrumental for him on the policy because the, the care, the strategies are openly based on a global header, money, much written in black and white. so the rice of china itself becomes the problem is not merely that there are some competing interest. is china itself that has to be cut down in size and sorry that was supposed to develop and grow under the wing of united states to supply a little good. although with you now is trying to taking this technological

leadership, living industry is building infrastructure around the world is getting the growing footprints in global finance. and this is very problematic as the u. s. does not recognize eagles in a world based on global dominance. so it's the size of china, so which is the problem. but here's the diplomacy. we're trying to map out. our strategic interests was yours. can we mitigate or harmonize interest or at least respect each other strategic interest and try to reduce the area of sarah some rivalry. but in here, they're very mush clear that the child has to be cut down and, and that's why it's diplomacy is often expressed in the language, ultimatums and threats, which of course, is very familiar to the russians. and so the corporation doesn't entail effectively china making a lot of unilateral concessions. and again, this is hillary clinton, the famously wrote that i don't want my grandchildren to grow up in the world live by china. so it's not simply that our interests are always competing. it's the mere

price of it. so i think maybe the chinese very defensive, the field. there's that they're being a circle, much like the russian. so that's good reasons. i mean, the u. s. s. launched economic war, undermines economy and military containment of china, which is nuclear aspect. and also, unless you think you're only interested in human rights, it's interference in hong kong, young and both, which is not barely principled on human rights. there's also efforts to the stabilize china. so it's, it's all of this lecture, it's not simply trying to learn about china and may compromise, but rather to see it to, to undermine china. and i think in order to have proper diplomacy, that i can really look at a strategic level, or if the united states willing to move from unit to a multiple a system. if not, i think they will only spiral out of control. and diplomacy will have little

meaning. ok, we get a demon. let me go to, you know, i mean, we can take it, leave the face value invasion and made it clear that it would be having peaceful coexistence with the united states. specifically in the west, in general, be acceptable to them, but that's we don't see that coming out of washington. another western glenn is framed that perfectly. the mere existence of china debate is a threat because it is a read to hit germany and who had to alleviate or address chinese rise and hit germany. you have to have peaceful coexistence. and then i'm going to write a little bit more with the money because i'd always, he won't let them do it. that's the problem. you can help people co exist if you bring it in an ideological setting name. you know, the pro, my point of view. ready let me just call what the new york times rolled into 1000.

well, so just 8 years ago, china is almost banging back was to show it's peaceful and good intentions to what they're in the state. and actually the whole editorial, i think it was written by mr. was that it was about how china was better than russia, and this was before crimea. this was before there was a new in the domain. it was new relations between the west and russia. and indeed, i mean, you know, the chinese course a piece for rise of china. we are growing economically, but by not going to invade anyone by willing to have actually, i will give you mine by went to give you a unit. that was the message from chain of or did they get the return? so, i mean, if the states are so concerned about all of this live the bad publicity of the back yard, the states and there was a creation around, isn't rolling in this. i mean, the whole idea of hong kong was the other bridge between huge mainland china and

the west. that's how this you to prosper. and then jillian, this, you do know the chinese, the west side and the book. and while i georgia here talking about diplomacy, you know, unfortunately they're not just, this is becoming an anti merry for the chinese also. good governance is not based on democracy as it is understand in the west. it's, it's based on the principle of choosing the best and some co chinese kind of been able to choose some very competent leaders, otherwise, china will not become so we can make the successful. oh, cool because of their medical side with choice between hillary clinton and donald trump for the see, you know where you were. and i'm really talk in the states. and this is one of the reasons why diplomacy can't walk here. these people are more creative, i mean, you have to be stupid to come to encourage and literature. they, chinese,

they are on the, on the marriage of american democracy. and this is exactly what the, what tony blink. indeed, it's very interesting. i'm glad i brought that up here because again, you know, if we look at the, the, the, the rice of china getting into the world trade organization. and then you know, the hope that yeltsin would deliver russia to the west. i mean, all of these fantasies and dreams that you know, and it's particular, it's an american peculiarities that everybody wants to be like us and everyone wants to like us. okay. and it's all encounters, it didn't work out the way we thought it would, which was any lucian in the 1st place. go ahead. yeah, i think the other kind of why they collapsed yet again at this meeting because this recent meeting between the chinese united states saying they have been china and america lecturing china again. and also china outlining always complains because

from the united states perspective, china is not respect, that is a uniform world where it tried to remodel itself out to us. also position itself under the us, not challenging is leadership. and also the so called rules based international order in which the u. s. makes rule for china should do, but it does. so it's so this created, it will explain a lot of the problem is from, from the us source, china, china. on the other hand, it's starting to look towards us. well, in the way of a model s d my point out as well, it's a political system can't really do much at the moment. it's very much polarized. they seem to be undergoing a cultural evolution. technological they're, they're, they're struggling as well, they're economy, it's in bad shape, infrastructures enfolding. you have this huge concentration of, well, social economic fragmentation. even america, allies, really, as we discussed with nor stream is really taking their orders anymore. and so that

they don't see the united states united states in relative decline, which is a reasonable conclusion. terese so, so why, why should they be lectured around by the united plan people in china that remembered the great cultural revolution. and they saw how devastating it was for china and seeing traces of it emerged in the, in the, in the u. s. and the west in general must be quite horrifying for them and everyone else. right gentlemen, that's all the time we have here. i want to make think, my guess and stuff. and here in moscow, i want to thank our viewers for watching us here are gc you next time. remember, the ah, i

know what would you love you to give them and you can mother can while we're on by now i was about, i should know moment of the miracle mon tesla deals on males like one of them and it will that will allow you to have an initiation and with much i should be better off not being and keep them in. but then, i mean, i mean, i saw it in one on my in my name is

i believe it doesn't look like this is off the bus else to you to choose that actually use go machine, which is a big milk with your budget. ah, will continue to tell you because it was in the famous from a credit issued by both of us to choose the the, the,

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