the hello welcome to cross talk where all things considered. i'm peter lavelle. we are witnessing a significant and irreversible shift in the international system. is undeniable. we live in multiple the world to example. suffice the bike and ministrations, inability to hold the north stream to and the recent china us meeting great power politics is back. the me to discuss these issues and more, i'm joined by my guests when decent and also use a professor at the university of south eastern norway, as well as the author of great power politics in the 4th industrial revolution. and here in moscow we prostitute dmitri barbara, she is a political analyst and editor in us, me, internet media project, or a gentleman, cross talk roles and effect. that means you can jump anytime you want, and i always appreciate it. okay, let's go to glen person. flow much has been talked about the nord stream and the

gas pipeline, connecting russia to the german market here, of course, in the american domestic context, it's a win for even though they don't understand the context of the story that it was germany that actually wanted the pipeline in the 1st place and it is a private initiative. it is not state the state. so, but you know, it would be if you look at some of the reactions in western media, this is, this is just giving the russians another chance to commit aggression and they chose weakness on the west part. i mean, there's a bunch of mental misunderstanding of this story here and unfortunately, she's feeling the worst possible fear mongering that we've been experiencing and particularly in the last 5 years. no, i agree. i think that's a big misunderstanding around it. again portraying the russian weapon, for example, if it's quite extreme again, you want to keep in mind that the point that was

a german initiative is they want to increase their energy security in order to in order to make sure that their, their industries remain competitive. our energy security is so much defined as reliable and ship supply of energy. that's what the russians offer. so this was a deal between the russian and german company and sent to the united states. so that is also interesting too, because they're not actually a part of this deal. how to enter this whole saga was by threatening or blackmail in its own hours because well, the germans wanted more energy security. they went in a sanctions against an attempt to punish and obstruct or ability to increase their energy security. now this is the list fail that if as well so they've been actually doing to make any real concessions and the pipeline. i think if my on my day percent finish, so and then they get a bike has been very specifically,

this is not some generosity it in the end of their, their punishment of germany and russia because they, they fail to achieve their objectives. pipeline is finished and they came to the conclusion is better to come out of this will saving some phase and allow us our relations with the germans and rushes and more so let's pretend we make a deal and that deal with between the americans and the germans source affectively the us listing of conditions. and if the germans comply, then they will stop punishing the germans. so it's not so much of the deal and blackmail it's, it's quite extraordinary about that. but again, the, the feedback the really strange because i'm not sure what else they were supposed to do. those of us that know the story, draw the same conclusion daemon. the interesting thing is that the trumpet administration and the by the ministry been kept invoking ukraine their new found

friend here. but at the same time, the trump administration and even people within the bite administration or saying i'm better buying russian gas wanting to buy the american l n g. which of course big's the me the, the question. well what about your friends? ukrainian. ok. i mean, it, none of the story makes any sense whatsoever. if you give it a western context, go ahead. well, unfortunately, it's not just the american side, you know, in germany, in from, in britain you have roughly the same absurd claims. you know, i'm just coaching. give is the german newspaper. mrs. mercury has betrayed ukraine. i think this paper that everyone was political in that space. and though this article was republished in the, in, in europe, in the u. k. for example, daily, expressly published of someone named maximilian ter holler

a former advisor to the readers defense mean as cheap. she said he wrote in political that basically, while the united states will be having a war with china, think about having a war with china. poor jim could attack europe and just take your defense just because states will be absorbed in the war with china and all of these because over the last year project last him to because it will give money to so which it would be able to have that i'm quote and just and quote and political a us, china war would likely have so most if not all us economic and mil capability. and consequently, caveat undermine it's chris ability to provide deterrence in europe. and because of the it will provide you with the march law for a peculiar to remedy russia, defeat at the head of the cold war in 1891. i mean, if this is book and then what is and the problem is that the people who are such

pay a lot guys from the street, you know, they are form advisors to the british defense ministry. their high placed us officials such as far costs, you know, she made similar claims about ukraine being sold out to the, to the russia. and it just shows you how absurd the western media and the western political boss have become. the problem is that more essential people, they also have to change their opinions because there is such pressure from an army washer. they came to that for the germans, chancello a ship from the sheed you was right. would you believe? you know? so, but until recently, i started making claims that the german, you will have to punish russia, give russia interprets the construction of a lot to him to i think i and green light for,

for pressuring the green. so i don't know where the sub so that you will stop because if you know, so glen color, put this all in contact. the last couple of years been ramp that rabbit anti russian offensive that they've been going on, particularly emanating from nato. i mean, they interpret this as a defeat. so i mean, there's very powerful unity, unity, unity. they keep repeating over and over. i guess there really isn't. there is also, it's really kind of laugh in a facade here at the end of the day. you need reliable, cheap energy. ok. and all of their nonsense of all their, their, their propaganda war just goes into cavities. go ahead. when the core of this propaganda though it is the key argument which everyone agrees on which is absurd to begin with, even the germans and americans, they will agree on this, on the mental thing that they all have to preserve ukraine's rights of transit. now

this is repeated over and over again. that is, right. that means all russian gas brushing us, you're going right to have this transitive through its territory and collect billions of dollars every year. it's quite an absurd argument against russia has any will. first of all, this pipeline makes perfect economic sense. the fact that they have to pay the billions of dollars to the koreans means about the german and the russell. that's something again from, from, from cutting out the middle man. but also it makes much more reliable. and this is why the germans initiated but still they use pushing with arguments, russia unreliable supply, which means europeans to cut lines of russia. well, the russia, ukraine, unreliable transit states and would like to have less reliance on this if not. but again, this is interpretive of an energy weapon if they deny ukraine their rights of transit

because they have this divine right to have russian gas goes through their territory. and it's quite extraordinary and even make it worse. over the past 10 years, ukraine has made great attempts to cut all social and economic ties to russia to reduce all dependence on russia mean ever since banding, it's books, the stopping slice across the board and the us every turn applause, this liberating. so for russia, but this one effort by russia to reduce its reliance on energy transfer through ukraine is deemed to be criminal. and again, consensus across the board. this makes perfect sense is, is quite extraordinary where this comes from. if ok, let's, let's take these, the, the nato argument, you know, needs, this is a win for, he needs the money. ok as if other countries don't want russian gas because they do so. i mean if it is so very, very important to the kremlin,

why would they cut off the supply? see that their logic is fails on every single metric. go ahead. oh yes, i agree with glen just also because ok, let's take the figures. ukraine gets ration. friendship between $2.00 and $3000000000.00 a year. sorry about the population of your credit was near in 50000000. it was 4948 . now it's less than 40 of people went to work in russia and the european union. g and glad for the whole reduces the population. but still it's a big country, it's bigger than poland. if it is, of course, bigger than 100 check republic, it's a huge country. and the, and the top 3000000000, those will lot feed. what could feed it was used in the russian market and being a real bridge between russia and the you that could feed 40000000 people. but

then your machine ukraine, that installed and so violently in 2012, sorry, 2014. they're doing everything to got any time to rush. i mean, just a people may not know it in the west. zelinski imposed sanctions on the hermitage. museum in st. petersburg. zelinski is both sanctions on moscow. state university. you live in ukraine. you can have quotes with these organizations. so this is the 1st argument. the 2nd argument is ecology. ok. the german green part u. s. as we learn from the national interest insists that you know, the pipeline should be the commission and they initiate the legislation to prevent this pipeline from operating. ok, do for the greens are so much for how are they going to warm and feed germany

without fossil fuels in the next 10 years, even if the so called transition is assured that they say it really is going to be much longer. you still need to feed and watch more than 18000000 people before we finish up your plan. also, i think the, the current trans contract ends in 2024. and the agreement that the, the, the germans, numeric russia has the green knew what is what rocky, what our germany, they over any kind of transit relationship. russia has with ukraine. i mean, again, amazing part the americans and germans agreed that they should extend 10 years up to 2024 for agreement between russian company and ukrainian company is quite amazing. and they didn't even include russia in this conversation to come up with this deal. so like,

we're going to break it up in the mail. they say, okay, ah, driven by shaped banks control those in me there's thing we dare to ask me o is your media a reflection of reality in

a world transformed what will make you feel safe? tice relation community, are you going the right way or are you being direct? what is truth? was his faith in the world corrupted? you need to defend the join us in the depths. will remain in the shallows. ah ah welcome at the cross that were all things considered. peter lavelle, this is the home addition to remind you. we're discussing some real news. the, the

let's change gears gentlemen here. we have the 2nd highlight of the 2nd high level meeting, the benighted states in china had. this is on the back of be disaster in anchorage earlier in the year. a lot of up language went into it from both sides and fences. that was intentional. it was a max, melissa, and of course they're playing to their domestic audiences. but they both came away from it. probably with very little understanding, almost certainly no agreement. but there is the recognition that we have to really start talking and start talking seriously. am i wrong? maybe this is a opening for some realism air, or is this going to just spiral? can we haven't hit bottom yet, but it's going to continue to spiral your thoughts? go ahead. i think is going to continue to spiral because on the american side,

we're not in the logic of pregnancy. we're in the laundry or ideology. i mean, from the big major point of view, it makes absolutely no sense for the united states to have a quarrel with china or to have a quarrel with russia. but i guess what you call it. yes, these are authoritarian countries and by that keeps repeating every week that there is going to be a huge confrontation between democracy is and autocratic regimes. if unavoidable, you know, and if you says it's no joke, yes, it is no joke because even, you know that way, just you will be the 3rd. yes. you know, the russian bolsheviks who are absolutely gorgeous. he will, they believed in peaceful coexistence with the sole capitalist readings. then you, i joined us out to do, but like georgia in the united states use a don't believe in it. you know, we had the 2nd crowd of american chinese talks. you know, that was when you're sherman dead, you just sectors. they stayed on the american side. the chinese were put off by

this because they expect at least someone like anthony blame, if not mr. barbie, i'm so ok if they sound such a lower level official, the chinese also represented by law level official found you know, the deputy foreign minister or china, the main foreign minister. and basically what did we hear? the chinese just said that the united states would stop is dangerous, or if it's dangerous, because economically it's a disaster. i think everyone themselves and militarily and such is that because the states are trying to check chinese aggression. you south china seas and east china seas. i mean, just look at the job graphy chinese aggression in the south china sea is prevented by country what a, the 10s of thousands of miles away from that. right. how can this be,

where is the water here? yeah, glen, go ahead of it because i mean the countries or at loggerheads, but at least even in demons. absolutely. right. to point out a lower level than probably should be it's not it wasn't appropriate. and i think that obviously the chinese that, that as a slight here, but there is a reckoning on both sides. that it either we continue the spiral down with unintended consequences or start facing after the fact that this is going to be a long log ahead. if we want to avoid them a serious conflict including a military. com, go ahead. yeah, no, i think there's a recognition that they need diplomacy, but again, what, what are the toner achieve and how much rooms for maneuver is there? because us has been there, opened that it will have the same format in purpose for diplomacy towards china as i had with russia, which is us will corporate all in areas where the us interest in all other areas will seek to come from china. and that's kind of limits the,

the scope of diplomacy. and i agree to a large extent with the moment i don't think ology is the driving variable here. i think the u. s. it's rather it's instrumental for him on the policy because the, with the care, the strategies are openly based on a global header, money, much written in black and white. so the rice of china itself becomes the problem. it's not merely that there are some competing interest, is china itself that has to be cut down in size and sorry that was supposed to develop and grow under the wing of united states. you know, it's a supplier. little thing, good thing now is trying to taking this technological leadership, living industry and building infrastructure around the world is getting the growing footprints in global finance. and this is very problematic as the u. s. does not recognize equals in a world based on global dominance. so it's the size of china itself, which is the problem. but here's the diplomacy. we're trying to map out. our strategic interests was yours. can we mitigate or harmonize interest or at least

respect each other strategic and just try to reduce the area of sarah rivalry in here. very mush clear that the child has to be cut down and, and that's why it's diplomacy is often expressed in the language, ultimatums and threats, which of course, is very familiar to the russians. and so the cooperation doesn't entail affectively china, making a lot of unilateral concessions. and again, this is hillary clinton, the famously wrote that i don't want my grandchildren to grow up in the world live by china. so it's not simply that the r, as in interest are always competing. it's the mayor price of it. so i think this has made the chinese very defensive, the field. there's that they're being a circle, much like the russian. so that's good reasons. i mean, the u. s. s. launched economic war undermines economy military containment of china, which is nuclear aspect. and also, unless you think you're only interested in human rights,

it's interference in hong kong a young and both about that is not merely principled on human rights. this also efforts to the stimulus, china, so it see all of this lecture. it's not simply trying to learn about china and may compromise, but rather to see it to, to undermine china. and i think in order to have proper diplomacy, that i can really look at a strategic level, or if the united states willing to move from unit to a multiple a system. if not, i think they will almost spiral out of control. and diplomacy will have little meaning. ok, we get a demon. let me go to you. i mean, we can take it, leave that face value that basing as made it clear that it would be a peaceful coexistence with the united states. specifically in the west, in general, be acceptable to them, but that's we don't see that coming out of washington. another western glenn is framed that perfectly. the mere existence of china debate is day is

a threat because it is a read to gemini and who to alleviate or address chinese rise and germany. you have to have peaceful coexistence. and then i'm going to write a little bit more would be money because id always, he won't let them do it. that's the problem. you can have people co exist. if you bring it in an ideological setting. you know, the pro, my point of view, let me just call what the new york times rolled into 1000. well, so just 8 years ago, china is almost banging back was to show its peaceful and good intentions to what i did. and actually, the whole editorial, i think it was written by mr. was that it was about how china was better than russia, and this was before crimea. this was before there was a new in the domain. it was new relations between the west and russia. and indeed,

i mean, you know, the chinese piece for rise of china. we are growing economically, but by not going to invade anyone by willing to have actually by willing to give you mine by went to give you a unit. that was the message from chain of or did they get the richer? so, i mean, if the united states are so concerned about all of this live the bad publicity of the back yard, the states and there was a create around on is enrolling in this book. i mean, the whole idea of hong kong was d. n. a range between huge mainland china and the west. that's how they see to prosper. and then jillian, this, you know, the chinese, the west side and the book and about i ga here talking about diplomacy. you know, unfortunately they're not just, this is becoming an anti merry thought. the chinese also of good governance is not

based on democracy as it is understand in the west. it's, it's based on the choosing the best. and some co chinese have been able to choose some very competent leaders, otherwise china will not have become so we cannot make any successful. oh cool. we have on the medical side with choice between hillary clinton and donald trump for the seat. you know, when you, when i was, and i'm really talk in the states, and this is one of the reasons why diplomacy come to work here. these people are more creative. i mean, you have to be stupid to come to encourage and literature. they chinese, they are on there on the marriage of american democracy. and this is exactly what the, what 20 blink. indeed, it's very interesting. i'm glad i brought that up here because again, you know, if we look at the, the, the, the rise of china get getting into the world trade organization. and then you know, the hope that yeltsin will deliver russia to the west. i mean,

all of these fantasies and dreams that you know, and it's particular, it's an american peculiarities that everybody wants to be like us and everyone wants to like us. okay. and it's all encounters, it didn't work out the way we thought it would, which was any lucian in the 1st place. go ahead. yeah, i think that's why they collapsed yet again at this meeting because this recent meeting between the chinese and united states, you're saying the of the china and america lecturing china again and also china outlining always complains because from the united states perspective, china not respect that is a uniform world where it tried to remodel itself out to us also position itself under the us, not challenging is leadership. and also trying to solve accepting the so called rules based international order, in which the u. s. makes rule for china should do, but it does. so it's so this created, it will explain

a lot of the from, from the us towards china, the china, on the other hand, it started to look towards us. well, in the way of a model s d, my pointed out as well, it's a political system. i don't really do much at the moment. it's very much polarized, seem to be undergoing a cultural evolution. technological they're, they're, they're struggling as well. they're economy, it's in bad shape, infrastructures enfolding. you have this huge concentration of wealth, social, economic presentation. even america, allies, really, as we discussed with more stream, is really taking their orders anymore. and so that they don't see the united states united states in relative decline, which is a reasonable conflict. terese so, so why, why should they be lectured around by the united glenn people in china that remember the great cultural revolution. and they saw how devastating it was for china and seeing traces of it emerged in the, in the, in the u. s. and the west in general,

must be quite horrifying for them and everyone else. right, gentlemen, that's all the time we have here. i want to make my guess and slow. and here in moscow, i want to thank our viewers for watching us here are see you next time. remember, the the know if you would, you love you and you can mother can while we're on by now, i know i should know moment has been age legal mon tesla deals on males like one and then that will allow you

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