protect the teenagers, their parents and grandparents by getting corporate jobs to 12 plus immediately, and possibly younger ages. later. pissy itemized and says families looking forward to hearing from professor how do you pronounce right this pandemic? he's only one that seems to talk any sense to me. and finally, gordon says, everyone who can get vaccinated should get vaccinated. trust adopters on the site. now these are just bits and tv cities, and this versus prime minister puts them in a great position to judge the tenure of british prime ministers. so where sons johnson, who, yes died. but as later, then he thinks the rentals. thank you for joining again. malik salmon? show off of the prime minister. so you know, very good place to tell us how much trouble is johnson low and quite a lot. but the opinion polls suggest he and the conservative policy are still ahead of lay, but the main opposition. so that gives him a certain orthography,

still as long as a prime minister is ahead in the polls in british politics, they become very authoritative, omnipotent, within a government and a party. if, if labor go ahead in the polls this autumn, i think he's in deep trouble. because the efforts, the essence of johnson's command is his perceived folk winning quality. there isn't a clear idea, logical direction as the was on the factor. and she was many times miles behind in the polls, but there was an ideological mission. he's not great with policy, big tail. he doesn't really understand how to manage tuesday. but as long as he was seen as this vote when he was mike to within the party in the government, if that were to go, i think he would be in real trouble because that great asset would be in

doubt. so this is james in the the weather was seen over the, the, some of quite quickly been labor. i'm the little democrats, davis daughter was in the both one a, a by election unexpectedly to losses for the thought is, adjust upon lands dropped 50 points and the concept of home popularity states. this is pretty dramatic stuff. is it just a blip of some a blip or will it continue through the autumn? with the joy of politics? is that some predictability? and we don't know, i can explain what's happening in the sense that his soaring popularity admits quite a lot of chaos within the government could be put down to the success of the vaccine rollouts across the u. k. and the pandemic has dominated british politics and the sense of liberation. i think actually a more direct connection with government. we've had for many years, you know,

people were getting techs in england, telling them to get back to it. i think people of us, so all that sparse johnson texting me or indeed is scotland. that's nicholas's. just tell we go off and be liberated from this nightmare. and that explains the soaring popularity and the chaos of recent weeks where the forest johnson tried to get out of self isolating. for example, after a resignation of the health after the resignation of the health secretary, the chaos over travel plans and sol. that now means there is a sort of growing sense of k awesome incompetence to counter the near you fauria. you could almost feel it of the vaccine rollout. so i think a lot of politics at the moment remains pandemic driven. that won't last much

longer. if we are through the west of it. so that is an extraordinary thing in a, by any independent analysis. the performance of policy performance during the pandemic has been lamentable. it's been very poor been from national standards. and yet the single success of the vaccine rule seems to overcome everything. not just for bonus, johnson, but nicholas stopped him for the welsh les minister as well. would that be a fantasy? yes. yeah. yeah. i think the, we're seeing in the u. k. after years, basically since $979.00 of a perception of the state being sinister. and you know, the great stature crusade was, get the state of people set people free, a completely new perception, in which it becomes the benevolent liberator from the pandemic. i do think it is such a direct connection, you know, the n a chess,

and then these techs to go and get a vaccine, that it has changed the perception of those in government across the u. k. now that could well be flex. public opinion is all over the place at the moment. and you'll write the bars johnson early on a made a series. you can see it. i mean, his old special advisor dominic coming says don't texting about tweeting about this all the time. you could see the mistakes, parable mistakes, and yet johnson, one of his all says skills is to sort of the public according to polls, say we are being the same with anyone. now that is not the case. but there is, you know, the default position for a lot of politicians is disillusionment and betrayal. according to voters. it's taking a long time with him. the default position with him test be sympathy and empathy

rather than that. now that might be changing, as you suggest, with the dramatic narrowing of the opinion. polls even declined in his personal right. and so much of a problem is dominant coming the better form are very special adviser, want to see a real danger to the prime minister. well, the views barry on this i'll give you mine, and the 2nd a lot of people think it's a minor irritant. that he is established as such, an unreliable narrator out for revenge, that his comments lack credibility. i take the opposite view. this is absolutely unique in 2 ways. first of all, his power with the number 10 was you need much more powerful than previous big names like alice to campbell who worked with tony black. he had power over who was appointed, who was removed, including the chancellor of the exchequer, and so on. so he was incredibly powerful. and for more than

a year. so boris johnson close up because his assessment rings true when you related to what we have all experienced. seeing johnson an action. i think it's going to be damaging for her. i checked the discussion with some political commentators for a program the other day. sort of spontaneously 2 of them cited cummings and said as evidence to make sense of johnson. i think therefore the running commentary and it's about a tweet every hour long, long blog is going to be damaging to him. mostly voters won't read them. but these things coming through and it is a condemnation that sort of makes sense. it's not outrageous what he's saying.

colds with what everyone can see. and so i think it's going to be damaging to. and the seems to be fair volume of text messages between the prime minister is form a confidant. that could i could spell more trouble. yeah. and he's publishing than some of the that is, i mean a, it's extraordinary that he's doing that. but it does me, this isn't his narrative. these are tax, this is sort of the stuff of history. you know, that you people look at the evidence and this is actual text, not cummings, writing a year later, at least. yeah. so i think these are damaging, as i don't think it will be, i've got a feeling it will be and that's quite different from the strange political opponent because usually that sort of stuff has to stay within some sort of bones because the embattled opponent wants to get back into the office perhaps, but with the dominant cummings is quite different. he has no aspirations for office

and therefore the law is no. holds bob. exactly. i mean, so partial has no leverage to pull in relation to come in. you're absolutely right. you know, if you're a leader of a coffee, the power of patronage or the potential patronage, gives the lead a considerable lever. johnson cummings doesn't want to go back to work with him, and therefore he doesn't want to go into those a lot. and he's not bothered about going about a lot. and he said he won't be open to parish now. so there are, there is nothing in terms of what johnson can offer it, but that puts him in a more dangerous place. you say that if he sucks, a cabinet minister cabinet minister says, well, i might get back in. if i behaved myself, that is not part of his thinking, and that makes a more dangerous. and one final question before i go into some of bought a johnson's background originally because the people who nearly became prime

minister if we've been having less discussion a couple of years back, would bought us johnson to be than that book as opposed to big in the prime ministers, but yeah, in fact a couple years ago i did a talk on the theme of prime ministers. we never had the series actually of tools. it's now going to be a book in september. and i then wrote an article for newspaper saying on the basis of those that have just missed out in the past. johnson will not seize the crown. and i've been tormented about ever since, you know, with people tweeting. i'll look at him. he said, johnson would never get it. i said on the basis of the past, because if you look at the qualifications, those who were prime ministers on the whole, they tended to be loyal people. they tended to be people haven't got to much trouble. up until the point they seized the crown,

they tend to be unify as rather than dividers. they could master policy detail and then sort of make it accessible to the wider electra and none of that. he makes but i think breck fit was the difference. the tory party was in a state of war, johnson said themselves existential crisis about its own future. and they turned to him for 2 reasons, that he is a vocal, and that is his one big qualification. for leadership, and he was the hard line breakfast here who could deal with the threats posed by the van bricks at party and others so. so that's how he got it. but he hasn't got many of the qualifications of leadership. well, we'll come back and we'll discuss how both johnson defy gravity and your prediction . join us after the break. when alex continues this conversation of a journalist and broadcaster steve richards,

was he then the ah, is your media a reflection of reality? in a world transformed what will make you feel safer? tyson lation community, are you going the right way or are you being somewhere direct? what is truth? what is faith? in the world corrupted, you need to defend the join us in the depths. will remain in the shallows, ah,

ah, the look of off the field, see what you actually can you through that actually use them shape which it says to build me up with your budget that i would continue to wrap up with a dinner each and cookie famous from a crowded by both of us, people choose ah, well,

come back. alex is in conversation with steve richards about the mindset, political problems of the prime minister. so let's get back to the origins of bought us some in, alexander bought us the pestle johnson. now i know it's stanley johns, there's no one for having a good sense of humor, but it's not a name. you give somebody you expect to be prime minister. the well, no over the hasn't done him any harm. i gather his family. don't even call him boris. the name very unusually, by the way, but a lot of voters referred to him as unusual in the sense the most prime ministers are referred to by that 1st. this is like the queen. there is a family name on the, the official. there's an official name and a family name. and yeah, it reflects a kind of show in this which is part of the family him and the father is like him or he's like the father. they are performers the top family in different ways,

some more exuberant than others, are fascinated by performance and you know, he, david cameron and others at each. i thought that i think were fascinated by the performance of politics, the game of politics. and to this very day, if you struggle to find clear definition about johnson's broad mission, there is no doubt that in the game of politics, he's proved to be a winner on his terms. just as a very unusual technique for a politician. it's also a decided he would continue with a fairly high risk, a lifestyle across a range of things to take risks. please. journalist suddenly seemed to a stranger to the child on various occasions, but would,

would have the demeanor of saying all that stuff doesn't matter, but this is really a very unusual, a position to take a model made. it's fascinating. i remember working on the program with him occasionally when he was a journalist and he said he want to go and politics and boys. he done it. and so you know, whatever the traits he has got away with. thanks so far. now that will come a point almost inevitably, when he doesn't, and that will be the, the full back of all full baths. but it hasn't happened yet. and have you been helped by the social media age, the transience of story to some and some of the things that can be penned on bought us with a, with a sunk a battleship. never mind a prime minister, but the social media age if it's just of the a data to the, to madison, to, to stand there than things pass. that's, that's very interesting observation because i've heard the opposite. that has been a lot of activity around highlighting what johnson said in the house comment

wasn't true, has had millions, millions of views. but you know, this obscene no doubt. if you look by the script editor of the spectator, foreign secretary, mayor of london won it twice. and now prime minister, that is a record which just so far, he hasn't had to face the consequences of actions and the napoleon that he's been a lucky, gentle, i mean a various key points and a cob suit have fallen in this. his favor. he was lucky to face jeremy colburn and a very weak live dam leader in the december 2019 elections. but it was he with great chutzpah who kind of that would be propelled. what was then a hung parliament towards an election at a time when he wanted all the rest of it. so yes, lock box. i mean it's not. it's not a sole explanation of any successful leader. yeah,

but the one thing you can be lucky alicia to pull the december 2019 election, greatest political christmas present of all. yeah. yeah. and they gave it to him. they didn't have to give him the election on that date and they did. well, that's the big question as the lunch about to run out. i mean, at the start of the summer, if you have master holy, surveyed big triumphantly and the local elections, england, a few passkey problems in northern ireland and scotland. but nonetheless, as far as english both were concerned, he was totally dominant now. and as we move into the, the high some of them through it think it's look a bit different. yeah, and i think we also will be an interesting test for him. and his main opponent, the labels to kiss darma. because so far, the tom or how he has on the whole managed politics with the time demick, which are unique and distinct. so how he manages the politics,

if it returns to normal ish in the autumn, is a big test for him, which will then have an impact on the face of forest job. some 2 bars johnson. it's very interesting and this is skip, it has really evaded scrutiny at every point and they any great sense, you know, the mayor of london is not a huge job. the british politics as foreign secretary, he was peripheral. theresa may deliberately made the peripheral during the tory leadership conference, there was so many candidates, but no one was really challenged. in the general election, he avoided big interviews. so it's the leader of the opposition's task really to scrutinize and he's not used to that. so that will be an interesting and have a terminal challenges. i mean, some talk, some evidence of a rest every way between the prime minister. i miss chancellor, you know,

the classic demise of prime ministers often is preceded by a rift between milk and sedona st. some evidence of that and dominant companies of course and said that they were there was a conspiracy to replace them more or less as soon as he was reelected them in as dominant cummings, just for mischief or other forces. and the conservative party who would quite like to see the back of bonus. i think the dominant cummings comments reflects the fact that after the december 2019 election, he and his boat leave entourage in number $0.10 the power was waning for that. so listening to mrs. jones, she certainly is a, is a player, you know, it's people who see the prime minister along to players. she by definition sees and quite a lot. but the more interesting one in my view is the ratio sumac, chancellor versus number 10, division. because at times,

although johnson ideologically is all over the place. but at times johnson has made speeches where he said, call me, roosevelt. even if you know president roosevelt, new deal, big spend a big spike. i've a big sped and, and there's evidence that he does believe a big spending as a way of driving the economy. the sooner is a self described fiscal conservatory. so there is potentially huge tension over johnson's ambitions by his so called leveling up program and of a kind of big spending i to versus this fiscal conservative in the treasury who poll suggest is incredibly popular. and how that works itself out, i think will be one of the big themes this autumn and beyond. now it might go more smoothly because far, shelton is both the big spender, but he doesn't like tax rises and quite likes tax cuts. and he's described margaret,

chose his hero and so on. so he's not, you know, absolute be rooted in one spot. but if he decides he is roosevelt like, i want the emerge from the pandemic as a big spend. he will face resistance both from the treasury culture of sound money and from ricky soon. and that could be really titanic set of tensions over public spending. tough in the coming years high but other challenges. i've been expecting a challenge from the north of the, quite surprised by how little constitutional fireman was being after the victory of the s n p. in the scottish alexis, well, i think that will be, this will be running theme. my view is that johnson will not grant referendum,

he just won't do it, whatever the pressure, certainly before the next general election. i'm understanding is that that might change if you have the support of kids dahmer and the westman labor passive. so you can see this being a running theme and without clear resolution, if he remains in that position, you will know more about what the options might be from the scottish position, but the westminster position minus funding, i think just not going to give it the side of an election now that might change, but i think it's current stop and hope it perhaps is biggest danger of all that. some self is congenitally and capable of governing. once they've been demick subsides and people stop script in the nuts and bolts of government is going to be a general decision. as this man is not capable of being tried. well,

i think you put it well. people analyze all the time. who's the biggest threat to bars? johnson, is it richie sue? not the popular chart for that? is it? the populace home secretary, and so i think the biggest danger to bars johnson is boris johnson. now one of the things that cummings is claimed, he said that the beginning of all of this is, you know, it's, it's almost a joke that i'm big prime minister. but then he said, but then again say with cameron and osborne and all the rest of them. but he has shown no or little evidence of grasp of detail, a capacity to manage people, which is so important, especially in challenging times. his number 10 is a curious mix of people. the cabinet was chosen partly because the best support for brett said, partly because none of them ready represents the threat to him. and so yeah,

the biggest threat to bar johnson as far as johnson i've had. so finally, steve went to the top of the prime minister's. you didn't think he would get there . can he stay there? yeah, i didn't think he would get that on the basis of others who hadn't, i saw him having some of those characteristics for those who hadn't got the crown. so therefore, i'm not gonna make a prediction again, having be proven wrong about him before. what i will say is 2 things. one, a majority of ac is a pretty good butter. now i know margaret thatcher foul with a much bigger majority. and also for all the speculation about the term, all of his private loc and all the rest of it. prime ministers very rarely go voluntarily, why not in times is called voluntarily, and that was how wilson and nice and you said one way or another,

the eldest of all being forced out. so if he is to go before the next election, i doubt that will be voluntarily. so it would have to be through false. so there would be one heck of a drama to be played out if that were to happen. so i'm not going to say anything more, give that assessment, that will bring you back to, to talk about that drama when it comes. you think it will be read, so thank you so much for joining me once again on the silence for thank you. before lasting recess, they don't bring round the palace of westminster. was it the prime minister had described his education secretary, gavin williamson as unsuitable because he was the only cabinet secretary less than he was perhaps things look different company austin. right now. the johnson government has become suddenly accident prone to lose one. hell, think he is a misfortune to lose to by election. so as careless. what distinguishes johnson

from his story, pierce. it's a rare capacity for being elected. unfortunately for him, he also possesses talent for blowing himself. there is no more expedient prime ministerial observer than steve richard. he said the storm clouds forming will be dating. but for now from alex myself and all that issue, it's good bye. stay safe. i hope to see you all again next week. ah, me ah, i

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