business refugees a feeling across the english channel and he has been tormented by the former top adviser, dominic coming on to capital england last year to find those to italy. as a result, the johnson meetings have plunged dramatically. the prime ministers dropped no less than $36.00 points, and the conservative form the table did. the only cabinet minister substantially below borders is permanently unpopular. education said christie gavin williamson. so is this a temporary slip, or does the pie minister self combusting today on alexander? so we turned to the expertise of mine. who knows the answer about the longevity. ok, steve richard, also off the prime minister's risky interview coming up soon. but 1st, you 3, it's enough and message is in response to i show last week on to vaccinate or not to vaccinate. teddy says, great to hear alex calling an injection, a jag, it was always a jog in scotland and not a job. i seem to remember, well,

so do i another great issue, cheers. your brain says, i'm no longer responsible for a child. my approach would be to ask my son for his unwillingness or otherwise i check with his d. p. re any contact indications, assuming all clear on sun willing it would be a big green light for me. gordon mackenzie says indeed, the j. c. b, i have got this totally all protect the teenagers, their parents and grandparents by getting corporate jobs to 12 plus immediately and possibly younger agents later to see. and my son says families looking forward, hearing from professor, how do you pronounce right this pandemic? he's only one that seems to talk any sense to me. and finally, gordon says, everyone who can get fox news should get vaccinated. shasta, doctors on the same night, steve, richard bit, fin tv. see this? and this versus prime minister puts them in a great position to judge the tenure of british prime ministers. so where stands johnson, who has died, but it's later than you think the red jose thank you for joining again. malik

salmon show off of the prime minister. so, you know, a very good place to tell us how much trouble is johnson low and quite a lot, but the opinion polls suggest he and the conservative policy are still ahead of les, but the main opposition, so that gives him a certain orthography, still as long as a prime minister is ahead in the polls in british politics, they become very authoritative, omnipotent, within a government and a party. if, if labor go ahead in the polls this autumn, i think he's in deep trouble. because the efforts, the essence of johnson's command is his perceived folk winning quality. there isn't a clear idea, logical direction as the was on the factor. and she was many times miles behind in

the polls. but there was an ideological mission. he's not the great policy, big sale. he doesn't really understand how to manage tuesday. but as long as he was seen as this folk, when he was mighty within the party in the government, if that were to go, i think he would be in real trouble because that great asset would be in doubt. so this change in the weather will seen over the summer, quite quickly. labor. i'm the little democrats, dad, his daughter was no, the both went to a bi election unexpectedly to losses for the tories. johnson upon lands dropped 50 points and the conservative home popularity states. this is pretty dramatic stuff. is it just a blip of some a blip? or will it continue for the autumn with the joy of politics? is that some predictability? and we don't know, i can explain what's happening in the sense that his soaring popularity admits

quite a lot of chaos within the government could be put down to the success of the vaccine rollout across the u. k. and the pandemic has dominated british politics and the sense of liberation. i think actually a more direct connection with the government. we've had for many years, you know, people were getting techs in england, telling them to get vaccinated. i think people of us are all that sparse johnson texting me, or indeed in scotland. that's nicholas's. just tell you, go off and be liberated from this nightmare. and that explains the soaring popularity and the chaos of recent weeks where the forest johnson tried to get out of self isolating. for example, after a resignation of the health, after the resignation of the health secretary, the chaos over travel plans and saw that now means there is

a sort of growing sense of chaos and incompetence to counter the near you fauria. you could almost feel it of the vaccine roll out. so i think a lot of politics at the moment remains pandemic driven. that won't last much longer if we are through the west of it. so that is an extraordinary thing. you know, by any independent analysis, the performance of policy performance during the panoramic screen lamentable. it's been very poor been to national standards. and yet the single success of the vaccine rule seems to overcome everything. not just for bonus. johnson from nicholas stoughton for the welsh plus minister as well. would that be a fantasy? yes. yeah. yeah. i think the, the, we're seeing in the u. k. after years, basically since $979.00 of

a perception of the state being sinister. and you know, the great stature crusade was, get the state of people set people free, a completely new perception, in which it becomes the benevolent liberator from the pandemic. i do think it is such a direct connection, you know, the n h s, and then these techs to go and get a vaccine, that it has changed the perception of those in government across the u. k. now, that could well be flex. public opinion is all over the place at the moment. and you'll write the bars johnson early on a made a series. you can see it. i mean, his old special advisor, dominic coming says don't type of thing about tweet about this all the time. you could see the mistakes, parable mistakes, and yet johnson, one of his all said skills is to sort of the public to poll,

say we're being the same with anyone. that is not the case. but there is, you know, the default position for a lot of politicians is disillusionment and betrayal. according to voters. it's taking a long time with him. the default position with him test be sympathy and empathy rather than that. now that might be changing, as you suggest, with the dramatic narrowing of the opinion. polls even declined in his personal right. and so much of a problem is dominant coming in better form are very special adviser, want to see a real danger to the prime minister. well, views very on this, i'll give you mine, and the 2nd a lot of people think it's a minor irritant. that he is established as such, an unreliable narrator out for revenge, that his comments lack credibility. i take the opposite view. this is absolutely

unique in 2 ways. first of all, his power with a number 10 was unique, much more powerful than previous big names, like alice to campbell who worked with tony black. he had power over who was appointed, who was removed, including the chancellor of the exchequer, and so on. so he was incredibly powerful. and for more than a year. so boris johnson close up because his assessment rings true when you related to what we have all experience. seeing johnson inaction. i think it's going to be damaging for her. i checked the discussion with some political commentator for a program the other day sort of spontaneously 2 of them, cited cummings, and said, as evidence to make sense of johnson. i think therefore the running commentary

and it's about a tweet every hour long, long blog is going to be damaging to him. most re, voters will read them. but these things coming through and it is a condemnation that sort of makes sense. it's not outrageous what he's saying it a cold with what everyone can see. and so i think it's going to be damaging to him and seems to be a fair volume of text messages between the prime minister is form a confidant. that could i could spell more trouble. yeah. and he's publishing them . some of them. that is, i mean a, it's extraordinary that he's doing that. bought it, does me, this isn't his narrative. these are tax. this is sort of the stuff of history. you know that you people look at the evidence and this is actual text, not cummings, writing a year later. at least. yeah. so i think these are damaging,

as i don't think it will be, i've got a feeling it will be and that's quite different from the strains, political opponents because usually that sort of stuff has to stay within some sort of bones because the embattled opponent wants to get back into the office perhaps, but with the dominant cummings is quite different. he has no aspirations for office and therefore there is no, no holds bob. exactly. i mean, so partial has no leave to fall in relation to coming your ups. you right. you know, if you're a leader of the party, the power of patronage, or the potential patronage, give believe a considerable lever. johnson cummings doesn't want to go back to work with him. and therefore, he doesn't want to go into those a lot. and he's not bothered about about the lord, and he won't be open to parish now. so there are,

there is nothing in terms of what johnson can offer it. and that puts him in a more dangerous place. you say that if he sucks, a cabinet minister cabinet minister says, well, i might get back in if i behave myself. that is not part of his thinking. and that makes a more dangerous. the final question before i go into some of bought of johnson's background. if recently, because the people who nearly became prime minister if we've been having less discussion a couple of years back, would bought us johnson to be than that book as opposed to big in the prime ministers. but yeah, in fact, a couple years ago, i did a talk on the theme of prime ministers. we never had the theory section of tools. it's now going to be a book in september. and i then wrote an article for a newspaper saying on the basis of those that had just missed out in the past. johnson will not seize the crown. and i've been tormented about ever since,

you know, with people tweeting. i'll look at him. he said, johnson would never get it. i said on the basis of the past, because if you look at the qualifications, those who were prime ministers on the whole, they tended to be loyal people. they tended to be people haven't got to much trouble. up until the point they seized the crown, they tend to be unify as rather than dividers. they could master policy detail and then sort of make it accessible to the wider electra and you and none of that he meets. but i think bret fit was the difference. the story party was in a state of war, johnson said to himself, existential crisis about its own future. and they turned to him for 2 reasons that he is a vocal, and that is his one big qualification for leadership. and he was the hotline breakfast here who could deal with the threats posed by the then bricks it

party and others so. so that's how he got it, but he hasn't got many of the qualifications of leadership. we'll come back and we'll discuss high bus johnson, 5 gravity and your prediction. joining us after the break, when alex continues this conversation of a journalist and broadcaster steve richards was see then oh, the what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy for taishan, let it be an arms race is often very dramatic. developments only personally, i'm going to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very critical of time. time to sit down and talk

me we need to look, i was off the bus to can you to actually use a machine which is a big me out with your budget that i would continue to tell you. because if didn't give famous, caught up in my issue by both of us choose well, come back. alex is in conversation with steve richards about the mindset,

political problems of the prime minister. so let's get back to the origins of bought us some in, alexander bought us the pestle, johnson, not always, stanley, just there's no one for having a good sense of humor, but it's not a so a name you give somebody you expect to be prime minister that well, no over hasn't done him any harm. i gather his family. don't even call him boris. the name. very unusually, by the way. but a lot of voters refer to him as unusual in the sense the most prime minister is referred to by that 1st. this is like the queen, ma'am. there's a family name and the official. there's an official name and a family name. and yeah, it reflects a kind of show in this which is part of the family and the father is like him or he's like the father. they are performed to be taught family in different

ways, some more exuberant than others, are fascinated by performance. and you know, he and david cameron and others at e to, i thought, said, i think were fascinated by the performance of politics, the game of politics. and to this very day, if you struggle to find clear definition about johnson's broad mission, there is no doubt that in the game of politics, he's proved to be a winner on his tongue. johnson, as a very unusual technique for the a politician. it's also a decided he would continue with a fairly high risk, a lifestyle across a range of things. take risks. journalist suddenly seemed to a stranger to the child on various occasions but would, would help the demeanor of saying, well, that stuff doesn't matter,

but this is really a very unusual, a position to take for a model made for with this. it's fascinating. i remember working on the program with him occasionally when he was a journalist and he said he wanted to go into politics and boise done it. and so you know, whatever the traits he has got away with. thanks so far. now that will come a point almost inevitably, when he doesn't, and there will be the, the full back of all full buys. but it hasn't happened yet. and have you been helped by the social media age, the transience of story, something. some of the things that can be penned on bought us with the, with a sunk a battleship. never mind a prime minister, but the social media age is just of the data to, to madison, to, to stand there then things that's, that's a very interesting observation, because i've heard the opposite. that has been a lot of activity around highlighting what johnson said in the house comment

wasn't true, has had millions of millions of views. but you know this up. so you know that if you look by the script editor of the spectator, foreign secretary, mayor of london wanted twice and now prime minister, that is a record which just so far he hasn't had to face the consequences of actions and the napoleon that he's been a lucky jello. various key points at a car seem to fallen in this. his favor. he was lucky to face. jeremy corbin very weak live dam leader in the december 2019 election. but it was he with great chutzpah who kind of be propelled. what was then hung parliament towards an election at a time when he wanted all the rest of it. so yes, lock bus. i mean it's not. it's not a soul explanation of any successful leader. yeah,

but the one thing you can be lucky alicia reported. yeah, the december, 2019 election. the greatest political christmas present of all. yeah, yeah. and they gave it to him. they didn't have to give him the election on that date. and they did. well, that's the big question. as the lot about to run out, i mean at the start of the summer, if you have mastered a fully surveyed big fire suddenly and the local elections, england, a few pesky problems and northern ireland and scotland. but nonetheless, as far as english both is concerned, he was totally dominant now. and as we move into the, the high some of them through it, things look a bit. yeah. and i think we also will be an interesting test for him. and his main opponent, the label to kiss darma because so far the test with system or is how he has on the whole manage the politics with the time demick, which are unique and distinct. so how he manages the politics,

if it returns to normal ish in the autumn, is a big test for him, which will then have an impact on the face so far as job some 2 bars johnson. it's very interesting and this is skip, it has really evaded scrutiny at every point to any great sense, you know, mayor of london's not huge job in british politics as foreign secretary, he was peripheral theresa may deliberately made him peripheral during the tory lead ship contest. there were so many candidates, but no one was really challenged. in the general election, he avoided big interviews. so it's the leader of the opposition's task really to scrutinize. and he's not used to that. so that will be an interesting and have a terminal challenges. i mean, some talk, some evidence of a rest every way between the prime minister. i miss chancellor. you know,

the classic demise of prime ministers often lives preceded by a rift between milk and sedona street. as some evidence of w companies, of course, and said that they were what it was a conspiracy to replace them more or less as soon as he was reelected them in as dominant coming just like a mischief or other forces. and the conservative party would quite like to see the back of balls. i think the dominant cummings comments reflects the fact that after the december 2019 election, he and his boat leave entourage number $0.10 the power was waning for that. so loosing out to mrs. jones, she thought me is a, is a player. you know, it's people who see the prime minister along to or players. she by definition, sees quite a lot. but the more interesting one in my view is the richie sumac chancellor bus number 10 division because at times, although johnson ideologically,

is all over the place. but at times, johnson has made speeches where he said, call me, roosevelt, you know, president roosevelt, new deal, big spend a big span. i have a big sped and, and as evidence that he does believe a big spending as a way of driving the economy, the sooner is a self described fiscal conservatory. so there is potentially huge tension over johnson's ambitions by his so called leveling up program. kind of big spending items versus this fiscal conservative in the treasury, who pulse suggest is incredibly popular. and how that works itself out, i think will be one of the big themes this autumn and beyond. now it might go more smoothly because far, shelton is both the big spender, but he doesn't like tax rises of quite likes, tax cuts,

and he's described margaret chose his hero and so on. so he's not absolutely rooted in one spot. but if he decides he is roost about like once a month from the pandemic, as a big spend, he will face resistance both from the treasury culture of sound money and from richie sumac. and that could be really titanic set of tensions over public spending . tough in the coming years high, but the challenge is i've been expecting a challenge from the north of the quite surprised by how little constitutional famine was been after the victory of the s n p. in the scottish alexis. well, i think that will be this will be a running theme. my view is that johnson will not grant referendum. he just won't do it. whatever the pressure certainly before the next general

election i'm understanding is so that might change that people have the support of customer and the westman labor policy. so you can see this being a running theme. and without clear resolution, if he remains in that position, you will know more about what the options might be from the scottish position. but the westminster position, my understanding is he just not going to give it the side of an election. now that might change, but i think if you haven't stopped and hope it will happen, see, is biggest danger to fall that some self. is he generously and capable of governing? once they've been demick subsides and the people stopped in the nuts and bolts of government. it's going to be a general decision. this is not capable of being treatment. well,

i think you put it well. people analyze over time, who's the biggest threat to forest johnson? is it richie soon? not the popular chancellor. is it the populace home secretary? and so i think the biggest danger to bars johnson is boris johnson. now, one of the things that cummings is claim said that the beginning of all of this is, you know, it's, it's almost a joke that i'm big prime minister. but then he said, but then again, same with cameron and osborne and all the rest of them. but he has shown no or little evidence of grasp of detail, a capacity to manage people, which is so important, especially in challenging times. his number 10 is a curious mix of people. the cabinet was chosen partly because of that support for . brett said partly because none of them ready represents the threat to him. and so

yeah, the biggest threat subarus johnson as far as johnson, i think. so finally, steve went to the top of the prime minister's. you didn't think he would get there . can he stay there? yeah, i didn't think he would get that on the basis of others who hadn't, i saw him having some of those characteristics, but those who hadn't got the crown supposed to be there for. i'm not gonna make prediction again, having be proven wrong about him before. what i will say is 2 things. one, a majority of ac is a pretty good butter. now i know margaret thatcher foul with a much bigger majority. and also for all the speculation about the term, all of his private life and all the rest of it. prime ministers very rarely go voluntarily was in milton times is called voluntarily, and that was how wilson and nice and you said one way or another. the others have

all being forced out. so if he is to go before the next election, i doubt if it will be voluntarily. so it would have to be through force. so there would be one heck of a drama to be played out if that were to happen. so not gonna say anything more than give that assessment. that will bring you back to talk about that drama when it comes. you think it will be read, so thank you so much for joining me once again on the silence of thank you. before elastics recess that you're going round the palace of waste. mr. was at the prime minister. had described his education set cuz he gavin williamson, as unstoppable because he was the only cabinet secretary less popular than he was perhaps things like different company austin. but right now, the johnson government has become suddenly accident prone to lose one. hell, think t as a misfortune to lose to by election. so as careless. what distinguishes johnson from

his tory peers. it's a real capacity for being elected. unfortunately for him, he also possesses talent for blowing himself from there's no more expedients prime ministerial observer than steve richard. he said to storm clouds forming dating. but for now from alex myself and all that issue, it's good by stacy's. i mean, hope to see you all again next week. ah, me soon. the look forward to talking to you all that technology should work for people. a robot must obey the

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