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tv   Boom Bust  RT  August 17, 2021 9:30am-10:01am EDT

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and that did happen more rapidly than we anticipated. is it that big of a surprise? i mean, really well, but at least this time america is meddling actually lead a militant group. even one recognized as terrorists by many states to gain total control over a country of galveston who failed. the united states failed and they failed to train the api and military. but to be honest, this isn't even the 1st time where we've seen something like this. remember how much the united states invested in, in nation building and iraq, and how the iraqi security forces web. at 1st sight of islam extended, it was very obvious to me. as soon as you know, you said that it would be withdrawing that this was essentially the same thing as hitting the keys to the towel them. but i truly do not believe that the american public understood this. and i'm not even sure that the bite in administration
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understood the seed. this is what happens when you try to impose a western concept of them, but democratization onto a culture that has absolutely no concept of it. i mean, they didn't, they never had an army there before, and they, they were more involved in insurgencies and whatever. then we tried to build an army. this was totally alien to them. so none of this is surprising. and many of us very early on were saying this is a, a prescription for disaster. and this outcome is very dismayed. on the one hand, i feel very badly for the asking people because they have really taken the brunt of, of this miscalculation both by their own leadership. and by the united states government the
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the the, this is boom, but the one business. so you can't afford to miss our branch of boring washington coming up. volatility continues to slam china as the delta vary and the natural disaster hits the country heart rate had we discussed the choppy condition facing the world's 2nd largest economy. and app ganeth stand has now been taken by the alphabet as the last of the u. s. embassy staff has been evacuated from the nation . we take a look at what impact the turmoil could have on international market. and later we look at the recovery in the airline sector as mass cancellation and delay issues hit the industry hard impact. so today put that right in the
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and we lead the program with economic data out of the world 2nd and 3rd largest economies. let's start with china. factory output for july and the 2nd largest economy increased by 6.4 percent year over year coordinate data released by the national bureau of tactics on monday. missing analysts expectations after thing 8.3 percent growth in june, also missing predictions. retail sales, they were up a point 5 percent in july from the same month last year after seeing an expansion of more than 12 percent in june. meanwhile, in japan, according to data relief, monday, the world's 3rd largest, the company offended by just 1.3 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2021. after falling 3.7 percent in the 1st quarter, and contracting nearly 4.8 percent in 2020 as a whole, as the nation struggled to deal with the coven,
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1900 pandemic. so what do these latest numbers tell us about the future of the 2 most crucial asian economies? well, to discuss, let's bring in boom by telephone. kristi i kristi, i want to start with china's economy, which is hip re pandemic levels. but there are concerns that the growth is flowing due to inflationary pressure and issues with the supply chain. what they, you? well yeah, one of the biggest threats to recovery of inflation, china's expansion is losing theme as businesses are now grappling with the higher cost of supply bottlenecks. so the new coven, 19 infections, and the for the delta vary and have also now led to fresh restrictions in the region, which in turn disrupted the countries factory output. the data earlier this month also showed that export growth, which has been a key drive of trying to rebound, had unexpectedly slowed down in july. and this is, as we talked about before because of the highly interconnected nature of our world . now, while china is growth engine, in terms of supply and producing manufacturing goods,
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it doesn't matter of the rest of the world doesn't recover because then there's no cost consumer and customer to buy the products. european and us imports from china slow down as importer space higher cost from inflation and the paste. the recovery slowed down in the wet. so according to analysts, consumption, industrial production and investments could all slow down further in august due to further tightening measures. and coven, 1000 controls. and these production control center, steel output to the lowest monthly level since april of 2020. and then over on the consumption side, the story was even more disappointing domestic consumption, which is another major contributor to g. p fell, and his liking far behind china's industrial and export sectors. so retail, delta slowed down 8 to 8.5 percent, and china's tightening social restriction to fight the delta varying outbreak has now hit the service sector affecting both travel and hospitality in the country and kristi, the chinese government is also taking steps to strengthen fiscal and monetary possible policy that is to say to support employment,
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as well as take steps to counter increasing commodity prices. what exactly are they doing there? and how is this all going to work? well, the central bank is unlikely going to inject a massive stimulus to boost growth, but i think it is reasonable though to assume that they will maintain an easing bias. many analysts expect the central bank to announce another cut in the amount of reserves. cash banks must hold in order to support further growth. so the p b o c injected billions of r and b through medium term loans into the financial system on monday. but the cost of borrowing was left unchanged. and on top of that, china is also point to quicken spending on infrastructure project, which will also help to support the economy. so including this broad cut in mid july, the p o. c has now injected 600000000000 r and be worth of liquidity. however much more will be needed and is expected to come in the coming month unless china is willing to risk a hard landing goldman sachs expects further supportive policy measures including a larger amount of government bond issuance. a more supportive monetary policy
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stands with another cut and potentially some marginal evenings and regulation policies. but altogether, the big question right now is whether china can even afford the massive stimulus that helped to push the world out of its deflationary depression. in the aftermath of the lehman failure, china was the growth engine of the world 20 years ago. post the double digit growth is for the world back into action post crisis. but now it's getting more and more difficult as growth is slowing down for the foreseeable future. and now i want to move over to japan. second quarter growth outpaced expectations of less than one percent, but japan's recovery still lags way behind what we are seeing in china, or even the u. s. which saw growth of 6.5 percent in the 2nd quarter. the japanese economy minister said that he has very mixed feelings about this gdp result. adding the priority is to prevent the spread of the virus. it's very bad for the economy for the situation to continue to drag on. what factors are we looking at that are
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causing japan to struggle? when the 2 largest economies, there's no thriving, they still have their own issues, but they're making bigger leaps. yeah, thriving is definitely a bit of a stretch there, but i don't think any economy is driving right now. but to your point, japan's recovery has lag far behind china and the u. s. by quite a bit. but even pretty pandemic though. japan was already struggling with growth even with it's given its dwindling exports. so japan has been experiencing less global demand for its primary exports, which revolved around electronic equipment and car port parts. the japans g d p growth in 2019 was only point 27 percent, while the u. s. and china were in the mid single digit. so it's not really that surprising that now it's recovery balance is also less than that of the u. s. and china, japanese manufacturers are falling behind because they rely heavily on foreign demand. and now with global inflation on commodities and raw material pricing, that is likely going to pressure demand even further. and on top of that, with cove it the slow roll out of its vaccination prod, program, and
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a series of emergency measures. they've hurt consumption. japan black, the roller is among the slowest for industrialized countries and tourism. that's also a huge part of the japanese economy. but now this industry has been hit very hard by the pandemic, as it keeps foreign investors for investors and visitors away. and you have to take a look at, you know, they had this gigantic tourist event in the olympics where they didn't allow any spectators to come. so that had to yeah, i mean, we're considering how much they definitely had to spend for that. now when we take a look at the time, it's all back together. when we take a look at both nations here, how big of a factor are these rising cases? the, the very worldwide and could those continue to put pressure on those economy? it's interesting, it's kind of a big factor in different ways. china and japan, they've taken completely different approaches to cove it in the delta various. so china has a 0 tolerance policy which is among the strictest in the world. so as of august, china's current cove in 1900 outbreak would barely register as
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a blip for most countries with only a $125.00 cases. a 125 cases among as 1400000000 people. but since that number has risen sharply since the middle of july, china, back to no tolerance policies in locking down cities. and by that i mean they're ceiling off, entire areas enforcing mandatory testing of tens of millions of people. they band people for exiting infected cities, canceling flight trains, and shutting down tor sites. and these methods would, they would never work in the what, but arguably, it has been quite effective as china for a few months has entirely eradicated the virus in the country with daily life returning back to normal. but japan, on the other hand, the delta vary is spreading quickly, especially post olympics cumulative cases have now top 1000000 and the situation is worsening. and a state of emergency has been issued. but unlike china, they've actually never locked down. this is a complete opposite. japan has never had an official locked down, but the government had repeatedly declared
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a state of emergency for some areas that revolve around eateries and bars. clothing early are not serving alcohol. japan's measures mostly rely on cooperative public and not a hard locked down, but these have had little effect and slowing down the infection rate. but definitely to very, very important academy is that we will continue to keep an eye on boom. but it's christie. i thank you so much. thank you. and just 2 weeks before the u. s. was set to finally complete its troop withdrawal from afghanistan after nearly 20 years of war, the taliban has seized the power in the nation. the taliban moved throughout the country, capturing all major cities in just a few days, capturing the capital city of bull. on sunday, the afghan president, osh wrap county fled the country that evening in an attempt to avoid further bloodshed, according to the russian embassy and couple which is one of the few embassies that chose to remain god. he fled with 4 cars full of money and hopped aboard a waiting help, a helicopter, allegedly,
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with so much cash that he had to dump some onto the tarmac due to weight constraints. the latest conflict has caused hundreds of thousands of people to flee their homes with many attempting to flee the country. us president joe bible returned to the white house from camp david to address the situation monday afternoon, saying that he stands by the decision and that the us did not enter the nation to nation build, but rather to prevent another terrorist attack, automatic and soil. and as we look at this massive news, the question becomes, how are investors reacting well for more on that, let's bring in a hobby miranda, ceo of optimist. l l c. octavio we're seeing global markets retreat for the most part on monday. either the down at the p were actually able to come up pretty much even is the situation that the dentist and having any major impact or is this more about that growth data that we just talked about with christy. well, i think i scanned that as a whole, if it's in be too small and the economy to have a big impact on global market. so unfortunately, it's a, it's a very,
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very poor country and where it goes doesn't really match that much for the local markets. of course, regionally that might be seen as a big catastrophe. i think the chinese data is much more important, but as you point out, the s and p 500 is back in positive territory. so those are very temporary thing. the voltage we've seen over the course the past day has been quite modest in line with what you see in a day to day basis. so it looks like all these things are bit of a yawn for the, for the market. so overall, i'm will say about china, the news coming from china is not very positively. so there's very, very heavy floods in have a proven seems that only bad news comes out over the course the past year or so. and that is concerning because there is a major agriculture center and it's a major center for primary materials and metals and minerals and things about source. so that has more impact potential there. the next kind of stuff. but i think the general consensus is about going to take care was fairly quickly. these floods are not a permanent fixture in who a province of there's going to be a temper thing and we'll come back to normal quite quickly. and i, i mean, is there any economic impact we're seeing is just go back to the afghanistan issue
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that we're seeing from the more than 2 trillion dollars spent on that conflict that started nearly 2 decades ago. i mean, does that give us a long lasting effect or did we already kind of felt that pain and now we're just happy to supposedly have it over with i think that pain is low in the past. i mean, that's money that was out the door some time ago. it's what accountants refer to as a sunk cost, meaning you spend the money was gone in the past. it would be very different if the us were being present to bill. now for 2 trillion that was not expectancy. you left afghanistan page printed dollars that would have a severe impact. but the fact of this spread out over 20 years is in the past, i think was 40 fully priced into the market. and it's not really driving things at this stage, and i want to take a look at the broader economic policy here in the u. s. and the recovery, there's growing conversation that the federal reserve could begin to taper its monthly purchases of $80000000000.00 in treasury security than $40000000000.00 and mortgage backed securities. as early as september. well,
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ending the asset purchases by mid 2022. now we know that officials have continually said they want to end bond purchase before they start raising interest rates from the near 0 that we're at currently. do you actually see this happening? and if they do make that move, well, this actually help address all the issues that we're seeing right now in the county with inflation. well, certainly if the fed does decisively increase interest rates and rush up interest rates that will have a damping effect on inflation, we'll keep it under control. but they might have to take some severe action to make that happen. and in the process of crash, the equity markets, the run, the risk of crushing the housing market and the bond markets all this in the same time. so the real question is, is it politically worth it for the fed to do that? and i think only do that when inflation really becomes a painful thing politically, and they get false into doing it. they don't want to crash the market without a very strong reason to do so. so i think i'll hold back on that. i'm going to do that and i fabio, is that crashing the market?
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is that solely based on the speculative nature of the stock market? and the fact that really all these wall street is they love the free money that they're getting from the fed. it doesn't really a 100 percent change the way they're making money. is that what this is all about? why i think it does change, we're making money. bear in mind the fed, when they want to inject money into, into the money supply, they go out and buy bose and so the drive, the price of bones up. if they stop doing that, the price of bones will come down and that will have a negative impact there. a lot of money that they use the print up to actually buy those bonds, find its way into the equity markets quite quickly as well. so the, the fed buying bond has a very beneficial impact on the market and is quite mechanical. it pulls into that quite directly. their mother also buying a lot of mortgage backed securities. so a lot of money fade is printing is also being put into the housing market. so if they type a back then purchase as a mortgage backed securities, they run the risk of the crash in the housing market and this politically very difficult for them to survive. i think very difficult for them to get
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a handle. and so i think they'll be very relaxing about raising interest rates and they rather just talk about of a single future. i would have said a different thing you 2 weeks ago and said the person at the jackson, the whole meeting later on this month. and now some sort of tapering now with a delta 1000000 taking off the pre found an excuse to carry on having a very loose monetary policy. so i think they'll grab the excuse and run with it. well i, i just say, i guess i look at it and i say, yeah, ok, i understand what you're saying. it does affect the money there. but the reality is, you've also had, you know, 2 years, almost of all this free money from the fad. so shouldn't that be enough? i have 30 seconds. i'll give you the final word on that. it should be enough. you know, i didn't, i didn't know exactly what the end game is. it looks to me like the books themselves into a corner is going to be very tough to get out of. so i'm looking for them to sort of pull a rabbit up perhaps, and some sort of magic trick to make this will go away and make this better. but i think it's, it's they, they're in a bind, they, they run the risk across the market or having high inflation. and that is the
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balance of the risk. so i want to see how they get themselves out of this. and we'll certainly have more on this as the week goes on is going to see some minutes from last month's meeting our coffee, moran, the ceo of optimist. l. l. c. thanks so much for your analysis today. thank you. and time now for a quick break, but when we come back, we take you back to the airline industry where the delta variant of cobra, 1900, is raising volatility in the sector. we have an expert on hand to bring us the data flight. that's going to break here. the numbers of the close, the my recent studies, 90 percent of all the money per thing for all the different programs never leaves wall street. right, so just stay on wall saying here's an infrastructure bell rose tunnels bridges and
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they the 2000 page bill, they numerate all the things where this money is supposed to go. and then they pass the bell. then they authorize the money to be printed and then they sent it for distribution to wall street. a lot of places on a be key that very clearly in the money philosophy chart, which is always going toward 0, that never goes anywhere on wall street balance sheet and they use it to buy expensive property. and that's been the story now for more than 20 years. who want to make note, you know, borders and the blind number please?
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marriage. we don't have authority. we go to the back seen the whole world needs to take action and be ready. not a joke. the judge come crisis, we can do better, we should be better. every one is contributing each in their own way. but we also know that this crisis will not go on forever. the challenge is paid for the response has been massive. so many good people are helping us. it makes us feel very proud that we need together in the welcome back. the mobile is reportedly investigating
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a data breach involving as many as 100000000 customers. the hacker allegedly still information including names, social security numbers and addresses. meanwhile, the culprit is seeking a ransom for the data to be paid in crypto currency r t. trinity chavez has more of the story today, popular mobile company, t mobile, investigating claims that the personal data of up to a 100000000 of its users has been breached. according to vices motherboard. a hacker on an online forum is claiming to be selling private data, which includes social security numbers, phone numbers, names, addresses, and drivers license numbers. and while the foreign posts itself didn't specifically mentioned t mobile, the seller told motherboard the data they obtained came from t mobile servers, the anonymous seller, reportedly seeking 6 bitcoin or $270000.00 for about 30000000 of those accounts. with the rest supposedly being sold through private channels, t mobile set in the statement, we are aware of claims made in an underground forum and we have been actively
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investigating their validity. we do not have any additional information to share at this time. t mobile has reported a number of serious data breaches in recent years. in fact, the company has reported a data breach every year since 2018. and if this data breach is confirmed, it could affect nearly every t mobile customer in the us because it's 2nd quarter earnings report last month. that telecom giant reported a 104000000 u. s. customers and other time of widespread digital insecurity in the united states, experts at the national security agency say that consistently recruiting your phone simply turning it off and then back on again. oftentimes swartz hackers. and they also recommend uninstalling applications on your devices. if you weren't using them, because by doing that, you keep your tax service more bounded. trinity chavez, r t. and as we get it to the end of the summer travel season, we wanted to take a look at how the industry is bearing while bookings are up from where they were last year, one airline is saying, a recent surgeon coven case is related to the delta variant is hurting the bottom
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line south. west airlines will fed last week that while demand over the upcoming labor day weekend remain strong. a slow down in business due to concerns about increased cases of the cro virus will make it hard for the company to turn a profit in the 3rd quarter of this year. the cancellation of festivals and trade shows and recent weeks has weighed on travel along with new restrictions to deal with rising numbers of cases in many major cities. many us carriers have also dealt with staff shortages and longer timeframes for repairs, which along with weather events have caused them to delay or even cancel flight. so let's go ahead and take a look at the state of travel with jerry left, the author from view from the wing carry always a pleasure to have you on the show. we really appreciate it. what is the state of air travel demand as we think consumers become more and more cautious with new cases of the delta barrier or travel demand is basically flat, which is to say that it's still down a little bit more than 20 percent compared to pre pandemic. but at it's settled
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down at much higher levels than we've seen, you know, at any time over the last 17 months. so it is strong and much recovered. but that recovery has ro rather stalled out. and now airlines got a pretty big bailout to deal with the fall out from the pandemic last year with the rise in cases of the delta various are they going to be able to weather the storm? so at this point, absolutely, with the asterisk that everything in the pandemic has certainly been unpredictable . so we can't, you know, we can, we can't rule out truly long tail events. it's likely that many of the airlines would have survived without going through chapter 11, bankruptcy even without at least a 2nd. and 3rd of my bill, i've certainly $79000000000.00 and appropriations. ready wasn't necessary to keep planes flying in the u. s. and all of the major carriers other southwest have been to the courthouse steps if not once and sometimes cases 2 and 3 times. so they've
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all have experience playing through bankruptcy. we're not likely to see that at this point without the bailouts, we probably would have seen american airlines in bankruptcy instead. at the end of the 2nd quarter. they had about $21000000000.00 in liquidity, which positions them incredibly well to survive for quite some time. but you know, like some of the others, they have tremendous debt burden, which is going to have to be repaid over time, as well as very high cost compared to competitors. and so the airlines are an out of the woods, but it's not likely that they won't. well, it wouldn't be beyond the pill to expect them to go back to congress for a 4th pilot. the apple. there's really no reason why they repeat it. it's up last also said business travel in september is expected to remain down 50 percent from pre pandemic levels, but better than the 69 percent drop in june. how concerning is the state of
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business travel for the entire industry? when a lot of people maybe realize, hey, you don't have to go back and forth so much when we can do things, you know, by teleconference or so on. i mean the fall is always going to be a little bit challenging for the airlines because post labor day end of summer with kids back in school. in many cases we're going to see leisure travel drying up. but business travel not quite recovering, as we would only start to see for many large businesses to return to office that is being put off somewhat. and so normally in the all business travel is that back though, that replaces leisure. it was going to be slow, it's going to be slower than before. that's a big deal for airlines, because while it's fewer travelers then we'll see, leave the skies. and we're already seeing airlines adjust their schedules. as a result, often it was pulling back somewhat. those passengers tend to pay more, their higher yield customers who are price insensitive looking more for schedule and those passengers aren't going to be back as quickly. we're going to,
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it's going to be longer before we see, you know, large events, large indoor events, conventions returning and you really can't do business to office until offices are completely open and people are back in the office at full, at full speed. we are going to see some business travel, especially we're seeing some among small and medium sized enterprises. but until that we get that return to office. we're certainly not seeing companies imposing business travel to a large extent on their, on their employees. and gary, i know that you've been traveling quite a bit here and there is your job. that's what you do. not only do you have to travel around for that job, but you also have to write about it so much. so i have about 30 seconds left here, but what the sentiment from the consumer that you were seeing out there is it is busy and airports are, are plain feeling safe. what do you think in their well, it certainly has been incredibly busy and it's been very difficult and frustrating as airports aren't fully back to capacity offering services. as many vendors, restaurants in airports aren't fully staffed. and so it's difficult to get
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everything that you need with lots of longer lines. are there been lots of cancellations the summer and that's frustrating, difficult to get through to airlines difficult to get customer service when you needed. if i could leave folks. one tips. if you can't get through to you or line, try one of their foreign call centers. those usually don't have the same one. hold times at the u. s. phone lines do. and i know there are probably a lot of folks who made that airline status back in 2019. but unfortunately the pandemic, it's probably wait on that. you're not getting that back unless you get into the friendly skies. maybe 2020 to gary. laugh author a view from the wing. thank you so much. thank you. and that's it for this time you can catch boom bust on demand on the portable tv app available on smartphones and tablets. you google play and the apple app store by searching portable tv, portable tv can also be downloaded on newer model, samsung, smart tv and roku devices, or you can just check it out at portable dot tv. well see you next time on boone by
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me the me ah loan. oh, when i would show the wrong one, i just don't need you to fill out the thing because the after an engagement equals trail when so many find themselves well, the part we choose to look so common ground in the
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ah, the desperate afghans who cling onto a military plane taking off from cobble film deal deal on his phone. his fight is unknown. sometimes the plunge to death. one of the telephone commanders, he gave victory speeches from the afghan capital, presidential polish spent years as a detainee. guantanamo would the terrorist. now, the de facto leaders of afghanistan, we speak to the group about recent development. the withdrawal of us troops had to be carried out in a strictly organized manner. the world can see that the territory of off galveston is now under the control of the atlantic em are you reality enough? galveston is making you you. lead is anxious over a potential migrant crisis to.

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