the hello and welcome to cross talk where all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle last me and appears to be near washington's 20 year effort to nation building that pianist and was always going to end this way a complete and total failure. it is doubtful to corrupt government in kabul will last long after the american withdrawal of dennis and remains broken and the american people poor and no one is held to account the cross talking of janice and i'm joined by my guess, marvin wind bomb in washington. he is the director of afghanistan and pakistan studies at the middle east institute in del mar. we have scott ritter. he is a former intelligence officer and the united nations weapons inspector. and in kabul, we have woodstock or are him. he is a conflict. peace and security expert, or a gentleman, cross talk, rules and effects. that means he can jump in anytime you want. and i always

appreciate when you go to scott, 1st, many of us watching this conflict for 2 decades expected this outcome was only the dates that mattered most here. made my introduction, i said, i call it in a complete and utter failure. the american people are poor and no one is held account, and if no one is held account, scott, then it's going to happen again. go ahead. your thoughts, of course, is going to happen again. it's in the it's, it's in the d. n a or the united states. so when we intervene, we intervene using a american centered template that is designed to placate domestic political factions. here in the united states, not to solve problems overseas, we've seen this almost everywhere. united states intervenes afghanistan was doomed to fail from the start because we didn't respect our student, tribal sensitivity as part wally and nothing we, we didn't under in the area we came in. we impose our will and then we start to

build afghans in, in our, in our model, especially their military. i mean, what we try to do is, is build a miniature united states army of miniature united states, security services, trained equip, like u. s. military. and they can't function, why? because you can't take it american style military template and impose on corruption . and that's what we have. we have generals who inflate their rank still money to treat their soldiers poorly. there's no motivation at the end of the day of the soldiers, not willing to die for a cause. then the army that she's part of isn't going to fight, and that's where we see the united states without a touch. we've had military leaders who have deceived themselves and deceive their civilian leadership and saying that they have a solution. and yet every year, every 2 years, we rotate these military years out defeated. we rotate

a new series of military leaders. we say the same thing. time with us become obvious, we weren't going to when we weren't going to prevail and it's time to leave and it's going to be ugly. it's going to be very ugly. your way to get out my stock and let me go to and you and couple, i mean we all we, this was known, this was known to the politicians and this was known to the american military. all you have to do is to read the afghan papers and it was one big cover, up sham corruption operation. and we know it is, this is knowable, fax, it's in the afghan papers. it didn't get enough coverage and the mainstream media. but this is knowable information and they knew this from the very beginning. it wasn't something that slowly got out of control. it's your country, it's your government here. i mean, what are your reflections after 20 years? i mean, what has been accomplished here after through 2 trillion dollars, a $100000000000.00 to train the afghan army and police. and now we have reports on a daily basis. they're just dropping their arms and they're fleeing if they can,

across the border. that's a lot of money down the drain here. what did you get for it? go ahead in kabul. what i think it's a really harsh analysis or saying it has gone down the drone or draw are green and everybody is dropping the guns. and i don't think that's the case. yes, we have had corruption prevailing. a lot of money has been spoiled. but that, that, that was expected in a, in a scenario where you were starting from scratch all on the ashes of the conflict left behind by the russian withdrawal and late eighties. that's hard to happen. we had the institutions and a lot of money was pumping all of the sudden. now let me come to the point of what is that we have achieved, mainly, you know, honest on in 2001 was in tatters. we had a civil war wing on whole of the country was a failure. and after 2001 is situation was stablished. we have a democratic system established. we had 4 rounds of residential elections,

3 downs of parliamentary elections, provincial councils were selected elected. we have a large gallery of one strained at home and abroad on, on in the morning of more than institutions. we have a very strong special forces that are defending the country. i mean, dropping the, the arm is all around most shock. i mean, hey, hang on here, but there is growing reports. is that one providence after another falling to the taliban? after a 100? i'm sorry. excuse me. after a $100000000000.00. ok. all you see is that creep of the taliban? here i limits. let's get marvin into the, into the program marketing washington and hang on, let's get, let me get. let's get everyone in the conversation 1st, then we can, you know, jump in. marvin, let me go to you. we have heard you have heard the program so far. i know you probably don't agree with me or scott, your thoughts, my friend, please. well,

i know i have differences with you in scott, not that what you say doesn't have some validity. but i think you've joined some of the conclusions 1st of all, when the international forces came in, remember, this was an international effort. this was not led to be sure, but this was in the national whatever that was supported by the u. one. my point here being is when they came in, there was a great deal of support for the foreign forces. they didn't see them as occupiers at all because this life under the bond was rather sad. i was there when the tele wants to me when the told you troll and it was the proverbial graveyard. so it was a big change and as we started pointed out that have been accomplishments, but there's no question the ball was dropped. first of all,

we went into iraq and that took pm. this is also going to so we never really united states and what contribution and those early days we are, we allowed a be in churches to rebuild. and by the time we woke up to the fact that there was an insurgency that we would deep into iraq and did not respond and didn't really effectively respond until later. but it was already too late. they had established themselves within the country. let me just add to that much to pointed out a great deal was accomplished. this whole generation of guns came, you know, came into being here with an investment in this country, a strong investment. unfortunately, the leadership and to some extent the united states and some of his taxes,

let them down. but don't ever get to says you're not the guns, tribal society or not. they are yearning to see the taller one return. because i mean to say what that is, because when you do, they're going to be millions of refugees, of people who cannot possibly survive in that kind of regime. ok, well scott, i mean from what we've heard from our other guess here, there could have been other outcomes. it's very hard to convince me that could have been any other outcome than the one we're facing right now. after 20 years, after 2 trillion dollars after $100000000000.00 to train the military and the police force as a can you see and a counter argument how this could have been different because it seems to me that there is no other way to see the outcome that we seeing that we other than what we see now. go ahead, scott. well, in order for there to have been another outcome, we would have had to approach entry and afghanistan differently. meaning that,

well, it doesn't mean that we embrace the radical elements of the taliban in their idea. ology and how the govern. we needed to understand that there were, you know, there was a moderate taliban at the time. and had we engaged with the moderate taliban? and we in both the pastor wally it comes to, you know, and a sound been lun saying, you know, and in speaking in the language of islam that you know, these foreigners have betrayed the, the, the, the, the trust and confidence that the gales gave when they gave host to them that they, they betrayed them by attacking the united states. and we worked with, you know, atkins, neighbors, morgan in a more concerted trash and respectful of the fact that they live in the region. we don't, we might have been able to come up with an outcome that was different than what we have today, what, what, what's going to happen. but anytime that we see to impose our will, that we see to project american sensibilities an american way of doing business in

a foreign land, especially one like afghanistan, you're doomed to fail. yes, many institutions were built. i don't disagree with this. i. we recognize that there are hundreds of thousands of back ends who are trained in the military, trained in the police force. we understand their institutions. but these institutions all exist with foundation and framework of provided by the united states. and now that we're withdrawing this framework and foundation is collapsing, there's nothing there. well a and the same as the scott, just to reinforce my question. i mean this is what happened to the british. this is what happened to the so we, it's why did the americans think it would be different? because we're american men, we do it better. we always when know, you know, we're very optimistic. whatever you want to say, the bottom line is, we delude ourselves more often than not by believing that we alone have the solution. there is a humorous ignorance on the part of the united states when it comes to international nations and especially the internal domestic realities of these

nations. when we seek to impose our will. don't understand them. see them through a bill driven by domestic american politics. i mean, when you at the slain the congress what's going on and then you're not explaining the real the about the dentist and you're explaining how we spend money in afghanistan. you create this artificial reality. you look at david portrays is repeated testimony before congress will get it today through the filter with reality that we know what today and you'll realize that he was lying and deceiving and just plain wrong about everything. look at the crystals counterinsurgency program. failure from the start wasn't going to succeed. but even if you didn't come in with a different military strategy or you're going to do is kill afghans more efficiently. that's not how you went to war. you went to war by getting the people tonight we've got to have the jump in here. i had to jump in here. we're going to go to a short break gentleman. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on afghanistan. space with our

the the the the the ah, i hello driven by a dreamer shaped by those in

me dares thing. we dare to ask in a trip down memory lane during history bugs talking about geo politics as it was a 100 years ago. 150 years ago from some big brain sort of looking at the big map and how that's relevant today. our military mission against them will conclude on august 31st

when it's time for them to go to us all the quote unquote, a young girl who i really improved so much. you got to do something that company will cut chicago with. i think that was the quote to show that this was the right weapon against the right and the local news about from but it was filled out through z o o z the signing of the us to all about agreement and laid the groundwork for the road ahead toward a lasting peace in afghanistan. and i know we study that. i'm a dunaway and who's the

welcome back to cross sac. were all things are considered? i'm peter labelle. remind you we're discussing afghanistan. ah, okay, go back to much talking in kabul. i mean, let's, let's go back to the very, very beginning of all of this, the, the, the reason why the united states attacked and occupied afghanistan was because of the role that couple was involved with al qaeda in the attacks of september 11th. i think a counter of factual history could have come out very differently. per afghanistan aisle kite it was there. being given aid and comfort, it should have just been a police operation. go in, take care of that and then leave was occupation of the country absolutely necessary . because we listened to scott here, almost every other scenario you can think of. and i think all of this is actually been tried and with the same conclusion. so do you think it was

a good idea and the 1st place to have african is span occupied by outsiders. go ahead and couple, you know, bob, i was not allowed to finish earlier. just couple of sentences on that. don't look at things from black and white perspective, there's always an on an honest on as well. there are great areas. i want to proceed and response to the 1st question that there were significant mistakes. made the 1st and foremost during the born conference, a lot of leverage and space was given to the warlords. the taliban would not not engage in the conference. they are not in wider his baseline with nick, but that was not invited. and that created a situation where a certain group was left out of the whole process and they felt like they had 3 months later on when americans came now coming back to the retrospect, you know, we can go further into retrospect and think of 980-8990 when the russians left unilaterally, without consulting the partners here in cobbler had at that time and effort was

made on international communities mark, we may not end up in a situation with 911 happened. so one can really deliberate on the boss and can be there. but what i can tell you is that i've honestly did have an opportunity even after the american envision, you know, where in the one conference had everybody had an inclusive bit inclusive, each process, their inclusion of all parties, whatever our situation, we are, all would have to be part of the process later on, the americans pushed for military con guest bush administrator administration. didn't allow a peace process to, to begin. and that continued the policies ship happen unilaterally. the one government state wasn't taken in the whole process. so i mean one can look at and hi night and talk about so many things, but now the situation is as that yes, we had mistakes. we had achievements a lot of accomplishments,

but now is the time where the international community and the regional powers, including china and russia, but i have to chip in and contribute to the piece process. the past can be deliberated a lot. we have lost the reason why i bring it up because you're going to have to face that. ok, i would be american withdrawl, so you're going to have to face those realities. marvin, let me go to you. i mean, is it really, really over over? because if you look at the chatter about contingency plans and out beyond afghanistan's borders, american military might be close by. i mean, is it ever really ever going to come to an end because there are too many people institutional interest that would like to see this? keep going on, obviously the government in kabul would like this to continue on. so with we can, we've talked about the past, let's talk about the present. let's talk about what's going to happen after the final american troop. if that ever happens, leaves up canister, go ahead. marvin and washington is not going to be any return troops. question is,

what united states is going to do. it say our power and the truth is it hasn't decided is going to, to the extent that it has any capacity at all. because one change from the gulf is expensive. and difficult operation is certainly not going to be a timely kind. the response, which is what is most needed cost in support for our target kind of suns forces that are in jeopardy. so know if there's not going to be that the question then comes down to as the situation worse is, is be an adage, then it's going to then use whatever capacity it has to try to, to slow the process. i don't think it can stop that. it can only slow it my my sense here at this point is that it may do so, but it is that point,

it will be too late because if there is infiltration of the cities, it's going to be impossible to use it a power effectively without killing innocent civilians, let me just go back on one thing. what there are no. margaret. how are we going? where did our court on track matic tell it on? recognized lay him again. that there was a diplomatic route to get him what they have always wanted and that goes back to the very beginning. they've always won a restoration of the emory in bon, they could not have been vitally because they were, they would be no agreement there. as it was, it was impossible to put together with them the launch or the 1st any kind of agreement. and we're not for russia and iran, as well as the united states. they wouldn't as sitting on them, they would not have agreed. you throw the taller bond into that there would have

been no agreement. so it, we all will all looking for that magic thing that might have worked if only we done that night same rain. there was no way in which the now tory is world or we're going to sit down with the people who when they had as far as they were concerned to fee. and so i, yes it's, there really never was a moment. not one last thing. ok. and i did said, remember, george bush made a great deal of the fact were not there for nation building. he wanted to pull out as quickly as possible because your rock is what he was on his mind. and that was the whole point of it. another another, another another mistake, okay, i mean, scott, i mean, again, the reason why i ask this question about what's happening now moving forward because there's a moral hazard issue out there. if the government and couple know is american error

power is going to be out there and they can call upon it. and of course will be people in the pentagon to be more than willing to do that. because raytheon and everybody else, you know, they get, get to get paid to. i mean, the moral hazard thing really bothers me because i visited couple. i talked to officials about corruption and you know, was always about the degree of it. everyone agreed that it's there and, and so you know, there's this moral hazard slippery slope issue here. that's why i keep asking and we really, really leaving, leaving. go ahead, scott. well, i mean, we need to understand it while we were in afghanistan and we had air power based in afghanistan. we had the ability to search more air power from aircraft carriers or maybe and see, and from bases and the in the middle east through got you see any airspace that was permissive. right now we're talking about a situation where there will be no american aircraft based in afghanistan.

everything has to come from abroad, which complicates the delivery of munitions greatly in terms of a timeliness factor. and in terms of a sustainability factor. so anybody who understands if we didn't win the war when we had everything going for us from an airpower perspective. and suddenly things that were going to somehow, with our finger on the scale of an outcome with this ridiculous concept of surgeon air power from, from the, from, from the gulf region. doesn't understand how air power works. we've lost it's over, it's done or will be no cavalry riding to the rescue. busy the air bar will not ship is thing when the last american troops leave. when the last foreign troops leave, we're talking about a survivor really factor of weeks, maybe months. but at the end of the day, the collapse of the cobble government will be as rapid and decisive as the collapse of the south vietnamese government. between march and april of 975. that's just the

reality. it's got, you'll be much surprised. that's what the name of this program is. it's saigon in afghanistan. let's go to our guest in kabul. how do you think? how do you think about the prospect of the government collapsing over the next few months? because it seems like almost inevitably it was there propped up because of us power and money. if we leased the power drives up, i don't know about the money because, you know, we've heard these politicians say they'll continue to support it. but i think the saigon analogy is really good. i mean, can remember very well scott, you probably, well as well. and marvin, of course, the debate, you know, should they continue funding on south vietnam and cambodia and even the congress said, no, it's over. it's over here, so let's go back to a couple here. how are you thinking about the collab potential collapse of the government in kabul? you know, the cobbler government, the government did not collapse after 989 when the situation was much worse than it

is in a situation was much worse than what we have worked right now. and the jeep resumes, survived with a very little support from the struggle, struggling more school, which had so many grow make issues. the situation is much different than at that time right now. so that is one thing that you have to keep in mind. secondly, the, i wonderful says, you know, the, this, the thinking of collapse comes from the mindset that the pallet and have people know a certain district and certain parts of the country. and they might be marching forward . but then look at the last week or last 10 days. confrontations, there has been a lot of clearance of the 80 as from the taliban president. so the one forces have been able to stand up for the challenge and keep the taliban at base. what i want to emphasize here, any water of any scale is going to cause destruction careless for any country, even for a very well sector. strong can be forget about the federal state,

like i'm honest on. but the way it is really the piece process to succeed. and if any level of insurgency, continuation of warfare is going to challenge to stability of a lot of them, there is no doubt. and i believe that the only be out for us is the peace process to succeed. so instead of really counting the months and days, let's think of the possibility of the peace process to proceed. hey, let me jump on that that just given us the hope for a continuation of the peace process. okay, we're almost out of time, you're marvin. i'll give you the last 30 seconds. go ahead. i'm a little bit more pessimistic that we're starting on this. i don't think there is a piece that tell him i have to are convinced that they were on the military victory. the united states is not losing here. the loser is gonna stand and see i've got people and i think we have to keep that in mind. united

states will go on without this done, although we will have replications it's, it's looking or the parts of the world to invest momentarily and in other ways. so if you ask on people who are going to suffer here, and that's the tragedy that, well, we can all agree on this panel. it is a tragedy here many thanks them, i guess in washington del mar, and in kabul. and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at our to see you next time and remember ah ah, ah, the next financial survival guides bliss, learn about, say, aloud. let's say i'm a joy and your great, i'm grief based on the fight. 9 was 3 prod. thank you for helping

with joy. that's right. fail us waiver a ah, is your media a reflection of reality? the in the world transformed what will make you feel safe? tycer lation for community. are you going the right way or are you being somewhere direct? what is true? what is in the world to corrupted. you need to defend the so join us in the depths or remain in the

shallows. ah. americans love buying homes. ah, this was a funny middle part of how our political leadership and our country large understood the bargain. you get a whole and then you will rebel, right as the things you don't revolt if you have a stake in the system. be really interesting to dial back and think about the longer deeper history of what housings meant in the united states. not just that old question of the american dream, but the bigger question of who the dream has been for the

a the telephone says that it will no longer allow nationals to leave the country restricting couple airport access to foreigners. only the groups also confirmed that won't agree to extend to the united states withdraw deadline beyond august. the 31st us president joe biden, meanwhile, says he will stick to that date as white calls from world leaders to secure a copy of the airport for as long as necessary. the meanwhile, former up in interpreters who worked with native forces during the 20 year campaign slammed the british government for not getting their families out. many fear reprisals from the insurgence. now empower i didn't limit grades, but why did you're just trying to.