the who's welcome to the alec sam issue where we look at the history of political pulling in the u. k. the bank 1st general election poster for the 1945 election. where wartime leader, winston churchill, was isolated in what was seen as a shock results. however, it wouldn't have been as great shock if people had placed confidence in the gout pulling for the news clinical, which had been showing lon, fight level labor leads for the previous 2 years. and these gallops final election pool was only one points i had for both labor and tory. after that or specialist died that have been many pulling said back that you kill actions. notably in 1970.

when the pose misled, huddled off and into dashing to the ballot box on 1992, when joe made it to fight the post to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. however, with modern statistical techniques, the post is claimed that they get more elections, right. federal. from the earliest coverage of television elections, the posters himself, had become the story was to david butler and robert mackenzie pi, needing the celebrated single mister. no more than equivalence. if professor john curtis who then supreme today's tv pulling, he joined alex to day. but not everybody takes a post, is a face value. online commentators in particular love, but the means to meet is abusive pools and the coverage. again, there's nothing new in this. in the 1945 election, when gallet was correctly predicting a liberal line flight, the daily expressed posters were forecasting. i did heat. alix sticks to james

kelly, the scottish website and gotten goes to logo all this later and michelle. but 1st, she treats emails and messages and this bonds to i show your last amendment this time. william nichol says yes, excellent show tenant countries of the world for less to solve the all problems, as you rightly mentioned, money used for war instead use for improvement and orderly people's quality of life . ivan alex says sensitive and recent analysis by peter and alex much better than the dog was reporting we see on many same channels. gord, mackenzie says, always enjoy less than peter o'beirne, honest obs divisions and always to the point to these are, says peter, all born is excellent, very informative. mama's of do. i says, why did to these and may feel so bad list prime minister. she speaks a lot offense and the name p doing says us a cannot betray the slogan, nobody left behind when are they? no book hobby says, this is what hope looks like. most empires have invaded afghanistan to the ages

because it was the chief gateway. all field, the americans are only the latest. if the west stop trying to meet them at least the western society, they will have the only hope they can have and not the hope of escaping it. as a slave to excursion has proven. professor john curtis is to div unclaimed king of the tv posters. alex introduce him about the long history of political pulling professionals from john cost us welcome to the alex simon. chill. nice to be. let's go back to almost the door in the let's go pulling in the united kingdom, the 1945 general election. so here was a situation where the news caught one of the great papers of the day. we're featuring gallup polls for 2 years before the election. but slavery wasn't sure the labor latin slade leap. but nobody but nobody believed that was possible. what was going on? well,

was referred to this was the last election. which opinion powering was taking place the previous one? jackson course being back in 1935 on the advent of god of poles. really dates from the late 19th thirties, particularly in the wake of success in forecasting the roosevelt was going to win the 936 us presidential election. when i now infamous readers pulled up by readers, digest suggested that he was going to lose out was when got ready. again, the reputation by the 945 action i just after the 2nd world war was the 1st opportunity forgot to do his partner in the course. most people saw it because vincent judge was prime minister registered judge, who was the person who was delivered victory for united kingdom in the 2nd world war that that would be react agent as prime minister. but of course, the electric decided otherwise are not in

a sense now for help to cement the idea. that opinion polls could indeed sometimes tell us something we wouldn't otherwise know. know that opinion polls have always been breed ever since. i certainly can remember on many occasions before the 997 new jersey where of course, whatever party also got a lot side box upon it because it was, the polls had some overestimated. maybe a solution and right, you know, to, to, lots of people did not believe, but i was going to get a lot of slot again, on this occasion, least the goals going, right. so what recent history has been the greatest pulling disaster. it was been the occasion when the, the posters are most welcome or perhaps even all of them had egg all over the faces . you know, other 3 and i was, i jotted me on the hall. so if any opinion poster inside the you catch the 1st is 970, they are not sure how wilson cold quite suddenly, off the back of arising maybe opinion paul standing. and the opinion polls kept on

suggesting that he was going to read actually some life party particularly wanted done by ping in research and suggested that maybe there was a late spring and maybe up she was going to make it. what d? chad? he did make it, and that resulted in the 1st substantial inquiry into why the poles coffee, rosh. and the answer was essentially what you did. there was a late spring and you have to remember back in those days when your balls were being conducted by interviewers going out and knocking on people's doors. so they couldn't be done a last minute in the same way. they can't be john, essentially over the internet. so that was the last. well, the 2nd one was 1992. when the opinion polls seemed to suggest that perhaps liberal party was at least go to deny the concert is and i was overcharging. maybe we'd have a pod, much in the concert is that for the reason perhaps

was essentially to do with the samples were necessary documents, they should be the proxy particular over sample people living in social housing. and then finally 2016, where again the paul suggested that possibly got to get on top of much. and then in practice david car and go to the majority. and i don't hear a very substantial x, so i started by party. so just now let's see, on behalf of the product capital set, basically the samples were wrong. in particular, one of the deputies it began to rise for 2015 was that they were part, it was a lot more popular, much younger voters than it was most old about as a big age job. knowing how people lived on one of the different things the pulse, find it difficult to get right is who's going to turn out to vote and who doesn't? and younger vouchers are less likely to vote. so i'm pretty not enough. should the

polls underestimate the age differences in turner, in other words, they overestimated. the proportion of the younger people are going to turn out though, because also be the younger people who they could get hold off so that we can do. but that p as in paul didn't get out of state home and therefore the engine ended up overestimating labor exposure, self 3 bright disasters written on the hot supposed one by the way, that is not a disaster. walked inside is the 2016 year referendum. actually some of the polls about said to actually release our we're going to read on if you take all the polls that were conducted during the reference job site, the more certainly we're going to be ahead dot remain, always looked very close. it was close. it's just again the in talk, nobody could believe the country didn't vote, leave that for the polls and suggested that we might what discounted not a member of the 2015 election,

i was counting on the hung parliament. the polls were, were forecasting. but even though these changes, know these inquiries is impossible. no. is it going to be plain sailing from posters, from the law of the, of, you know, all these difficulties. i mean, they are, the owners, truth is onyx opinions. putting is always difficult in the circumstances. so i mean again, one very simple thing. if we go box 30 years or so, whether or not people budget cars or labor days, you allow me to bring topics or my spot. that's why most people didn't even in scotland. basically what can cause people who are much more likely to live a middle class, people like you to be conservative. those days are over in the 29 junior action. labor was no problem. i was working just purchasing was my middle class, but i just, the conserves were probably slightly for success amongst more contrast to the naval,

not entire result, abraxas not, not cheering circus. jobs means a post is used to spend a lot of time making sure they have, at least you know, the right number of middle josh isn't working, talks about isn't that pose or 23. now i wrote it on the other hand, whether or not you've got a degree or not. now much is twice a lot in a way to rex it. but actually getting accurate information about somebody's education qualification is quite difficult to very so when the qualifications, if you're thinking about a letter that's been education, refer you to parish getting. how could information about that is more difficult without pulses hard to start to grow with. in other words, while they're trying to get changes over time. but at the same time methodology, chances are times already set. so most you don't have the internet. we don't just have disadvantages, not embrace on the internet,

but he's wanting to deal drugs regina pulse quickly about some of the downsides until really the 1980s. it was all being done, trying to fight sickle protest up the so the methodology changes, but the circumstance change that of course. and so what i smoked in the party system completely changes stuff and it was dominated by the s and p. and so therefore, again, the circumstances change, what we're trying to measure is changed. that's what we charge changes. i had the post of not less than election poles in between the legs. i had the post to protect themselves against the nefarious newspapers. who might present a marginal change in pulling as if it was some dramatic effect with going back to night do 45, and gallop forecasting, and leave a lunch light. miraculously, a deal express we're forecast to get dead heat on polling. so how to post of protect themselves against the failure newspapers. while this is undoubtedly

something potentially quite difficult area, i mean i can tell you was pretty funny council. what we do is we do not require all companies and basically all everybody does a premium part in the u. k. his signed up to, to its rules. one of his many rules is every talk with the principal goes out. we remind people the protocol reminds people. nokia, i opinion polls within about 4 points of the true value of about 95 percent of the time. but if the movement between 2 poles is less than 4.2, now you may just simply be the random variation to which all polls are subject to nothing really by necessarily have changed. well, that's what the post is, but there is no doubt the news bodies just dictates even arises a couple of points able get headlined, particularly the worse,

if the conservative legion, they've been imposed, jots by 2 or 3 points. you know, we suggested dr. bars, johnson is potentially in trouble. first, the kids thought, well, actually 2 or 3 movements on the lead is something that could very, very easily. harper as a result of shopping out. but the truth is, i suppose, just try to keep people honest, by the way, which report that poses they do all the time. got dr. health warding, but it's very difficult to stop the newspapers, particularly, hadn't the headlines, perhaps claim more for what their opinion told? say that perhaps some of us who bought more g judicious ac suggested was coming back to the big alex continues. is discussions with professor john curtis. the

well, america was crazy frat party in afghanistan is over 20 years, leaving behind quite a mass americans love buying homes. ah . this was fundamental part of how our political leadership and our country large understood the bargain. you get a whole and then you will rebel, right as the things you don't revolt if you have a stake in the system. be really interesting to dial back and think about the longer, deeper history of what housings meant in the united states. not just that old question of the american dream, but the bigger question of who the dream has been for

well, come back. alice continues as discussions with professor sir john crisis and has been joined by david kelly of the blog. scott goes, pope. a terminal is about professionals of john carter. some in the gym grew up looking at david butler and bob mckenzie in the spring. all met on the same. my goodness i want to do that was, was always should i'm bishop to become the number one political pundits for portals . know what is true is, shall we say, i had an unusually early interest in politics, in our people vote. so my 1st political memory is the death of you guys from 963 on the subsequent leadership reduction. how it works, and one against james called her. and that's the point in which i started reading

newspapers and took an interest in this reaction. i then remember being allowed to say, oh my, my parents are age 910 for the 964 at your program, which of course was david about doing book because each other was indeed i don't remember following the case. i have the following day, but i was allowed to stay up for a while until january to talk to why she would beginning about program. so i was what she kind i certainly for about chip i know. fast forward when i became a graduate student in 1976, my supervisor was in de butter z now is so it's the same bus. and her date was one of the 2 types of girls. so i actually have been behind the scenes at each and every general reaction since

1979. but for a long time, basically behind the scenes on that started during the corrections were pretty much every round of english, no collections in 1981. so i've actually don't have a 40 yes of elections. i'm now i think the longest running person on the b b. c. crew. now david timothy has finally retired because that's my concert tonight. was david's 1st one, but most of the time actually working on reduction. so which actually can be much more side. but eventually more recently i've been dr much more into the front of cameras. not least coast to coast independence referendum, which i certainly where of course, you know, strong emotional anybody who could say anything about what was going on as a friend, it was much in demand by any television station was going undoubtedly raised

my profile. so the answer is it's very different. a of the people who i knew like got me and started to hear you and that often gradually people decided to put me in front of cameras months behind. and that's why becoming a relatively low while i'm pleased of help provider a boost of television profiler. john awful lot time. do you have an absolute favorite election of all not experiences or something you could say. yeah, i'm glad i was covering that one. yeah, i'm not, i'm dr. my favorite mileage of all the vast records i've been involved in. it is 997 and it is the port to moment most of my microphone lost his seat and not least of the reasons why i remember that is, you know,

i was sitting in like bunco. i was doing well, i've been doing a number of elections which was analyzing the results as they came in and telling people i didn't like professional engine king, who was the biggest fun person for a long time is very, very, very good broadcaster. but i was doing the walk behind the scenes and reading the lines about what was going on. sexual section i had a b, b, c, producer was because shawna grady was long since southern career on the independent . but she assured the job was to keep on trying me to be doing this, not in the other to be in following the program. and she was telling me not long i was going to want more. we got to share and i said sure, city shut off. we're not going to get anything on for the next 2 hours. this is high political drama until gosh, is played out. nobody's going to talk about the fact that the swing is slightly

greater than also going to the south to bring the water. so that's our doctor. i think the most dramatic of nights party because the fact that show many people lost their seats, but also because so many people couldn't, but they could not could possibly help. professor john cut us pulling. good, extraordinary. thank you so much for joining me, nelly simon. show you're welcome, but not everyone is as confident and the author of political pulling and it's you see. so i'm no joined by james kelly of the blog. scott was james, welcome to the examine show i alex to be here. how are you? i'm very well, but your blog has a lot of skepticism about opinion pulls, at least about the use of opinion polls and what was the law both well and all the independent lager in scotland and, and scotland. we have a problem with media,

which is overwhelmingly on tim dependents, are skeptical about independence, almost the entire instrument, with the exception of one. your spectrum is against independence. and they're the ones that are the commissioning, the polls. and so what you're going to get on the agenda treating and you're going to get, you know, emissions and questions are asked are the, are asked, or the s, the question was the wrong way. maybe that was, results will be played. maybe the results would be misinterpreted slightly. so as, as, as more of the kinds of relationship between holes in the media. i think of the problem in scotland be suggesting that you got the of the, any of these other highly reputable pulling organizations of the starting information. i think, i think sometimes the information comes back in the media to store fits and you know, numerous examples of, you know, for example, on your paper at a search results were only applied and the run up to 20, you know, like when the sci fi one by one slide, it's a cad, the results of a pull,

the only covered labor health constituencies and any pets. and through the on our projects are which covered the whole going for national results and then presented the seats present soon as if it was a national result. and people pointed, i want it done, but it was there are oblivious to build those to you kind of a sense and you get no sense and the media do have the topic of mass representing pull decision sounds sometimes quite it's not even, it's not, you know, you say it was a mess. interpretation or is it wrong? what they're, what they're actually doing. they make factually. an accurate claims about their full family making death. some in your example from the 2015 election, the one of the unionist newspapers, the starting with us out of a signal opinion didn't do them any good the same piece though one election and a lot of slides. so what is the motto for the odd distortion here? yeah, i think this is the big question. whether, you know, that's relentless, disorganized makes any difference or whether you know,

a run or who are results can make any difference. you know, as you know, in the run of the 2014 election and run up to 2014 referendum of gosh, independence, certainly in 2013 there was a whole string of polls showing us the dreadful results for the yes campaigns of the pro independent campaign. and my concern was fucking the life of the campaign and the people wouldn't really engaged with the campaign because we're thinking, right, that's something we're going through the motions. but this is something we already know the outcome was. and there were people are probably approaching the very best at least, and that would, it was a genuinely to text of election referendum. and i thought that might make with impossible for us to make up like right. of course, as you know, it's not the case. and yet that may come by the prompts that i feel like it's a cause for concern because i was never going to do anything else. if it was gonna make any difference, it was always going to harm to get paid or not the new something black or you secret, james? i was hoping that the polls wouldn't show

a yes lead until the referendum day, and we'd sneak up and catch them at the end. and it was greatly to of misfortune in my view as the leader of the s campaign back in the day. that sunday times bull showed us i had was 10 days to go out of much trouble, hadn't happened. so something's been behind in the bulls. this is not a bad thing. yeah. good for as long as you're a little bit behind, you know, as long as you're as long as are competitive, but you know, maybe that's the ideal place to be. but those pools in 2014, we're showing anything that suits one majority for no i think when it's like last when it doesn't even look competitive people, i just think we'll find that even bother thinking about that because we already know what the what the competitive maybe the risk to being the younger, i think if you're involved far behind and if you're being presented as being behind potentially the problem for having you got a futon, both comes, i know you, your brawl regularly advertises, so as you can do your own polls that make good the same,

how can you criticize these dreadful poll stuff and then be getting into the whole thing yourself. we have to do things up at that know, and if we're having all. busy these tools that are fisher and i thought of the unionist inclined questions we might be a little bit and the other direction and or even bring up slightly. so that's well for being cynical advice. and maybe that is one reason i noticed and any blog you're taking using exaggerated the headlight. is this your sort of comment on some of the union as tablets, giving them a taste of their own medicine? yeah. you know, like daily bethany for what comes that regard with what a show is bomb cell poll hallmark bloom for starts and and, and staff softer annihilated a slight ironic response to that. so you'd be doing the opposite thing. massive boost for independence. if it's on one percent shift. absolutely. why

won't you advice be a bit the people reading your blog, when would you advice be to treat the pulse of pension? so or to say, well over the piece they tend to show trends that you should take take notice of him. what would, what your base are, belong to be to, to, to people looking at opinion goals. sometimes what will happen as, for example, the independence question. and, you know, an independent client will come along with the pressure group or something. come along, commission to pull, asking a question, isn't really about independence on the french really showing, you know, friends, terrible, dropping support for independence and then you staples or look for you just read. just say the press release me find the question off with nothing. i was completely different question that being presented was the have to look at the question i, i think before you don't the conclusions that the trend can be meaningful. so it's true for the room of the scott goes pop, i'm going to commission

a pull and independence, which says if you were persuaded that some time in the future of scotland, would there be a lot of milk and honey within defenders? would you consider voting for that to any point? is that your question? that's a really good idea. that's, that's going to go into the next 2. james kelly scott goes, bob, thank you so much for joining me. alex simon. show us the only pull that kind of election very well. so said every politician facing adverse opinion polls, but every politician peace here to the pulling and the pause confessed the temperature of election campaigns, particularly and by elections. there are plenty of examples of single post changing the entire mood of the election. and given the often shameless a beast of pulling bi partisan press, it opens up the arguments. the pulling should be bonds in the immediate run up to pulling di. in reality, the art of manipulating poor results hasn't changed much since the humphrey apple

be instructive, the naive bernard willy on how to produce the i says, which will wanted in a classic edition of yes, minister. however sophisticated the science of pulling becomes, there will still be both forecasting trials and disasters. and post it will likely have a balance of plot is a brick but for some time to come. but for now, from alex, myself and all the show is good bye, stacy. i'm hope to see you again next me ah me . ah.

when i was shot the wrong. why don't i just don't the rule out the thing because the after an engagement equals the trail, when so many find themselves well, the part we choose to look for common ground or military mission against them will conclude on august 31st when it's time for them to go to us all the quote unquote a young people. and i really wonder if you got to do that. you know, southern company will cut us a couple of months. okay. but i'm not sure if this was the right weapon against the right and the local. no, no,

no bought it from but it was filled out through z o o z the the signing of the us to all about agreement. and i laid the groundwork for the road ahead toward a lasting peace in afghanistan. and i know that i'm a dunaway and i love the smalling western countries warning of the imminent risk of a terrorist attack could cobble airport and telling their nationals to stay away from the side. a thousands of still amassing their desperate to get out before the looming evacuations deadline, president biden's approval ratings hit a new low army veterans voice their anger with how the current situations unravel.