ah, what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy foundation, let it be an arms race is on often very dramatic development. only personally, i'm going to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very political time, time to sit down and talk the i use welcome to the alex sam issue where we look at the history of political pulling in the u. k. the very 1st general election portal for the 1945 election,

where wartime leader, winston churchill, was isolated in what was seen as a shock results. however, it wouldn't have been as great his shock as people had placed confidence in the gout pulling for the news chronicle, which had been showing long sight level labor leads for the previous 2 years and did gallop the final election pull was only one points i had for both labor and tory. after that or suspicious start, there have been many pulling setbacks that you kill actions, notably 970. when the post misled, huddled off and into dashing to the ballot box on 1992. when you made it to fight the post to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. however, with modern statistical techniques, the post is claimed that they get more elections, right. federal. from the earliest coverage of television elections, the posters himself had the con. the story was to david butler and robert mackenzie

pye, needing the celebrated single mister morton. equivalence is professor john curtis, who then supreme as today's tv pulling, he joined alex to day. but not everybody takes a post to the face value online. commentators in particular love, but the means to meet is abusive pools and their coverage. again, there's nothing new in this. in the 945 election when gala was correctly predicting a labor last flight. the daily express posters were forecasting. i did heat. i'll stick to james kelly. the scottish website goes, logo all this later in the show, but 1st to your tweets emails and messages and this bonds to i show your last name is william nichol says yes, excellent. show 10 countries of the world to the left to solve the all problems, as you rightly mentioned, money used for war. instead use for improvement and orderly people's quality of life. ivan, alex says sensitive and recent analysis by peter and alex much better than the dog

was reporting we see on many same channels. gord, mackenzie says, always enjoy less than peter over and honest observations and always to the point to these are 5th peter. all born is excellent, very informative mohammed of do, i says, why did cities and may feel so badly prime minister. she speaks a lot offense at the name p doing says u. s. a cannot betray the slogan, nobody left behind. when are they? no, bob hobby says, this is what hope looks like. most empires have invaded afghanistan to the ages because it was the chief gateway all field. the americans are only the latest. if the west stop time to meet them, at least the western society, they will have the only hope they can have not the hope of escaping it as if the least excursion has proven. professor sir john curtis is 2 days unkind king of the tv posters. alex introduce him about the long history of political pulling.

professor some john coffin. welcome to the alley, simon. chill, nice vs. so let's go back to almost the door and the flick of pulling and the like, the kingdom of the 1945 general election. so here was a situation where the news caught up, one of the great papers of the day, we're featuring gallup polls. for 2 years before the election, buxley, everyone showed a, a labor, latin slave leap. but nobody but nobody believed that was possible. what was going on? well the truth is, this was the fact that action, which opinion powering was taking place the previous one, jackson course being back in 1935 on the advent of god of poles. really dates from the late 19th thirties, particularly in the wake of success in forecasting that roosevelt was going to win the 936 us presidential election. when i now infamous readers pulled up by readers,

digest suggested that he was going to lose was when got ready again, the reputation, but the 945 action i just after the 2nd world war was the 1st opportunity forgot to do his party in the you can, of course, most people saw because miss and judge with prime minister register judge was the person who had delivered victory for you are in the 2nd world war for because she would be react agent as prime minister. but of course, the electric decided otherwise or not in a sense, for how to submit the idea that opinion polls could engage sometimes tell us something we wouldn't otherwise know. know that opinion polls have always been breed ever since. i certainly can remember on many occasions before the 997, you can direct you where of course, whatever part you also got a lot inside box upon it because it was the polls had some of restoration, maybe solution and right, you know, due to lots of people not believe i was going to get along to the game on this

occasion be supposed to be right. so what recent history has been the greatest pulling disaster? it was been the occasion when the, the posters are most welcome or perhaps even all of them had eggs all over the faces. you know, other 3 and i was i, to me and she on the hall. so of any opinion poster inside the u. k. the 1st is $970.00. they are not sure how wilson cold, quite suddenly, off the back of a rise in makers, opinion poll standing, and the opinion polls kept on suggesting that he was going to read actually some light pi. particularly one poll done by pinging research and she suggested that maybe there was a late spring and maybe up she was trying to make it. what in d? chad, he did my good and that resulted in the 1st, substantially inquiry as to why the poles coffee wrong. and the answer was essentially what you did that was a late spring and you have to remember back in those days when your balls were

being conducted by interviewers going out and knocking on people's doors. so they couldn't be done a last minute in the same way. they can be john, essentially over the internet. so that was the last. well, the 2nd one was 992. when the opinion polls seemed to suggest that perhaps whatever party was at least going to deny the can service and i was overcharging, maybe we'd have a pod, much in the. and the conservatives got there for the reason perhaps was essentially to do with the samples. were all necessary documents, they should be the crops in particular over several people living in social housing . and then finally 2016. where again the paul suggested that possibly getting parliament in protest drive the car and go to the georgie and i'm a very substantial ex. so i started patches status now you see on the bridge part

of capsules that basically the samples were wrong. in particular, one of the deputies had begun to rise by 2015 was that they were part, it was a lot more popular, much younger vouchers than it was most old about is a big age job. knowing how people like one of the different things of polls find it difficult to get right. is who's going to turn out to vote and who doesn't? and younger vouchers are less likely to vote. so i'm pretty clear that it not inaction. the polls underestimating the age differences in turn out, in other words, they overestimated proportion. the younger people are going to turn out to vote because the young people who they could get hold off to do. but that p as in paul didn't get out of state home, some of them and therefore the ended up overestimating label exposure. so 3 great disasters written on the heart. supposed to one by the way, that is not

a disaster walked in. so i to just be 2016 year referendum. actually some of the paul's about the actually the lease on we're going to win on if you take all of the polls that were conducted during the reference of job site, the more said that you were going to be ahead dot remain always very close. it was close, it's just again the entire nobody could believe that the country vote leave. that for the polls suggested that we might what discarded not a member of the 2015 election. i was rather counting on the hung parliament. the pulls were, were forecasting. but given all these changes, and all these inquiries is not impossible, no, is it going to be plain sailing from posters, from the law of the, of, you know, all these difficulties. i need to know. the truth is onyx opinion polling is always difficult in the circumstances. so i mean again on very simple

change. if we go back 30 years or so, whether or not people budget codes or labor days, you allow me to bring job my spot. that's why most people didn't even in scotland, basically working cost people who are much more likely to live middle josby much more likely to be conservative. those days are over in the 2019 year action. labor was no problem. i was working just as it was much middle just by just the conservative, probably slightly more success. amongst more contrast to the neighbor was largely enjoying the results. abraxas not, not during seconds. jobs means a post is used to spend a lot of time making sure they had, at least, you know, the right number of middle talks about isn't working just isn't that post or to, to know i wrote it. on the other hand, whether or not you've got a degree or not, no, not is twice a lot in a way to rex it. but actually getting accurate information about somebody's

educational qualifications is quite difficult to vary. so many qualifications and thinking about a letter that's been education that restrict you to parish getting. how could information about that is more difficult without pulses hard to start to grow with . in other words, while they're trying to get changes over time. but at the same time, methodology, chances are times already set. so most you don't have the internet, but hospitals, we don't just have disadvantages. not everybody's on the internet. but it's a deal to answer internet pulse quickly about some of the downsides. until really late 19 eighties. it was all being done, trying to fight circle protest up the methodology changes, but the circumstance change that of course. and so what i smoked in the parking system completely changes stuff and it was dominated by the s and p. and so

therefore, again, the 2nd just change what you're trying to measure is changed. that's what the charge changes. i the post of not less than election polls, but in the between the legs. i do posters protect themselves against the nefarious newspapers. who might present a marginal change in pulling as if it was some dramatic effect with going back to 945. and if i got a lot of forecasting and leave a lunch laid, miraculously deal express we're forecast to get dead heat on polling. so how to post of protect themselves against the failure newspapers. while this is undoubtedly something of a potentially quite difficult area, i mean i can tell you is prison counselor. what we do is we do not require all companies. and basically, all of that, everybody does a premium part in the u. k. his signed up to, to its rules. one of his many rules is that every time opinion goes out, we remind people the protocol reminds people sh nokia opinion polls within about 4

points of the true value of about 95 percent of the time. but if the movement between 2 poles is less than $4.00, now it may just simply be random variation to which all polls are subject to nothing really by necessary to change model. not opposed to say, but there is no doubt the news bodies just dictates even arises a couple of points. it will get headlined, particularly worse, if the conservative legion opinion polls dropped by 2 or 3 points. now we suggest your doctor bars johnson is potentially in trouble, burst the chemist on. well, actually 2 or 3 movements on the lead is something that could very, very easily. harper as a result of something out. but the truth is, i suppose,

just try to keep people honest, by the way in which they report that pose, if they do all the time, got dry house warding. but it's very difficult to stop the newspapers, particularly, hadn't the headlines, perhaps claimed more for what their opinion told them, perhaps not stories who bought judicious suggested wars coming up on to the big alex continues this discussions with professor sir john curtis me the when i would show the wrong when i was just don't the room. yes. to see out the same because the attitude and engagement equals the trail. when so many find themselves well the part we choose to look so common

ground americans love buying homes. ah, this was a funded middle part of how our political leadership and our country large understood the bargain. you get a whole and then you will rebel, right as the things you don't revolt if you have a stake in the system. be really interesting to dial back and think about the longer deeper history of what housings meant in the united states. not just that old question of the american dream, but the bigger question of who the dream has been for well, come back, alex continues his discussions with professor sir john curtis and has been joined

by david kelly of the blog. scott goes, pope. a tell me about the professional. so john cutter, something that the jim grew up looking, david butler and bob mackenzie in the spring. all of a sudden my goodness i want to do that was, was always should i'm bishop to become the number one political pundits for polls. now, what is true is, shall we say i had an unusually early interest in politics and in people vote. so my 1st critical memory is to death. if you guys in 1963 on the subsequent leadership reduction. how it was one against james caught her. and that's the point in which are starting reading. newspapers took an interest in this leadership reaction. i then remember being a lot to say on my, my parents are,

this is 18910 for the 964 at your program, which of course was david bought during book mackenzie. yes. indeed, i don't remember following the case. i had the following day, but i was allowed to stay up for a while and to remember to talk. so i will beginning about program. so i was watch it kind of, i certainly for dr. if i'm not fast forward, when i became a graduate student in 1976, my supervisor was in. dave said that the butler's he now is so it's the same person or a date was, you know, one of the 2 types of girls. so i actually have been behind the scenes at each and every general action since 1979. but for a long time, basically behind the scenes that started during like corrections were pretty much every round of english, no collections, but you know,

a lot of it. so i've actually don't have a 40 yes of elections. i know, i think the longest running person on the b b. c. crew. now david demo pay has finally retired because that's my concert tonight. was david's 1st one. but most of the time actually working on production so which actually could be much more shy. but eventually more recently i've been driving much more into the front of com rush. i'm not lisa cost because it depends referendum, which i certainly where of course, you know, strong emotional trade. anybody who could say anything about what was going on, that friend was much in demand by any television station who's going undoubtedly raised my profile. so the answer is it's very different a of the people who i knew mike got me and started to do that after the

graduate people decided to put me in front of cameras was behind it. and that's why becoming a relatively low well pleased of help provider, a booster of television profiler. john, all, what time do you have an absolute favorite election of all not experiences or something you could say. yeah, i'm glad i was covering that one. yeah, i'm not, i'm actually my favorite moments of all the vast actions i've been involved in. it is 997 and it is the port to the moment she most of my microphone last to see to not least of the reasons why i remember that is, you know, i was sitting in like bunco. i was doing well i think i the number of elections which was analyzing the results as they came in and telling people like they didn't

like professional jimmy king, who was the bbc's fun person for a long time and very, very good broadcaster. but i was doing just behind the scenes and reading the lines about what was going on, sexual, etc, i had a b, b, c produced would be called shauna grady small since her southern career on the independent. but she assured job was to keep on trying me to be doing this, not in the other to be in following the program. and she was telling me a lot like i was going to want more. we got to share and i said sure, city shut off. we're not going to get anything on for the next 2 hours. this is high political drama on until gosh, is played out. nobody's kind of talking about the fact that the swing is suddenly greater in the north, and that is the shop to bring the water. so that's our doctor. i think the most

dramatic of nights, partly because of the fact that show many people lost that sheets, but also because so many people couldn't, but they could not could possibly help. professor john cut us pulling good, extraordinary. thank you so much for joining me, nelly. simon. show you're welcome, but not everyone is as confident that the off to political pulling and it's you see . so i'm no joined by james kelly of the blog. scott was pop james, welcome to the examine show. i like to be here. how are you? i'm very well, but your blog has a note of skepticism about opinion pulls at least about the use of opinion polls and what was the law both well and honest and true and dependent lager in scotland and, and scotland. we have a problem with the media, which is overwhelmingly on tim dependents, are skeptical about independence, almost the entire media, with the exception of one. your spectrum is against independence and they're the

ones that are the commissioning, the polls. and so what you're going to get an agenda creaking and you're going to get, you know, emissions, you know, questions are asked or the aren't asked. or the question was the wrong way. maybe the results will be played. maybe results will be misinterpreted slightly. so as, as more of the kind of the relationship between poles and media, i think of as the problem in scotland be suggesting that you got the of the, any of these other highly reputable pulling organizations of the starting information. i think, i think sometimes the information comes back in the media to store fits and you know, numerous examples of, you know, for example, you stay paradis search results were only applied and the run up to 20. you know, like when the asked them one by one slide, it's a cad, the results of a pull. the only covered labor held constituencies and any pets and through the and our projects are which covered the whole going for national results and then

presented the seats present soon as it was a national result. and people pointed, i want it done, but it was there are oblivious to just build those, the big nonsense and you get no sense and the media do have the topic of mass representing pull decision sounds sometimes quite it's not even, it's not even that you say it was a mess. interpretation or it's just wrong. what they're, what they're actually doing. i mean, they make factually, an accurate claims about their full family stuff. making some in your example from the 2015 election. the one of the unionists newspapers. the starting with us out of a signal opinion didn't do them any good. the same piece, the one the election and a lot of slides. so what is the motto for the odd distortion here and there? yeah, i think this is the big question whether you know, that's relentless, disorganized makes any difference or whether you know, who or results can make any difference. you know, as you know, in the run of the 2014 election and run up to 2014 referenda. let gosh,

independence. settling 2013. there was a whole string of pulls showing us the dreadful results for the yes campaigns of the pro independent campaign. and my concern was fucking the life of the campaign. and the people wouldn't really engaged with the campaign to the thinking, right? that's me, we're going through the motions, but it's just something we already know the outcome holes. and there were people are probably approaching the very best wasting that would. it was a genuinely competitive election referendum and i thought that might make with impossible for us to make up like right. of course i was, you know, not the case. and yet that may come back or perhaps it doesn't matter. i feel like it's a cause for concern because i was never going to do anything else was going to make any difference. it was always going to harm get paid and not the new something black or you secret. james, i was hoping that the pulls wouldn't show a yes lead until the referendum day, and we'd sneak up and catch them at the end. and it was greatly to of misfortune and my view as the leader of the s campaign back in the day that suddenly times

bull showed us, i had the 10 days to go out of much trouble, hadn't happened. so something's been behind in the bulls. this is not a bad thing. yeah, i think for as long as you're a little bit behind, you know, as long as you're as long as are competitive, but you know, actually maybe that's the ideal place to be. but those pools and 25 thing where, you know, showing anything that suits one majority for no i think when it's like last when it doesn't even look competitive people, i just think it was fine. but i didn't bother thinking about that because we already know what the, what was the competitive maybe there was an advantage to being the younger. but i think if you're far behind and if you're being preventative being behind, potentially for problem for having you got both come, i know you, your brawl regularly advertising, so as you can do your own polls that make good the same. how can you criticize these dreadful poll stuff and then be getting into the whole thing yourself? or we have to even things up at that know. and if we're having all these tools that

are fisher and i thought of the unionist inclined questions, we might be a little bit and the other direction and or even saying, but slightly. so that's well for being one. maybe one reason i noticed in the any blog you're taken to do using exaggerated the headlight is the use of commentary on the some of the universe tabloids giving them a taste of little meds. yeah. you know, like bailey bethany for what comes out regardless of what a show is. bombshell poll hallmark blue for star and dependence staff, saturday annihilated flight. i want it response to the so you've been doing the opposite thing. massive boost for independence. if it's on one percent shift, absolutely point here and vice be a bit, the people reading your blog when we do vice be to treat the pulse of pension. so, or to say, well over the peace they tend to show trends that you should take,

take notice of him, what would, what your base as a blogger, be to, to, to people looking at opinion goals. sometimes what will happen as, for example, of the independence question, and, you know, an independent client will come along the pressure group or something. come along, commissioner for asking a question, isn't really about independence on the french really showing, you know, friends, terrible, dropping support for independence and then you staples, or look for about a week or just say the press release and you find us to the question off with nothing, i was completely different question that being presented. what the look at us for the question i i think before you jump to the conclusion that the trend can be meaningful. so. so every trip in the room of the scott goes, pop, i'm going to commission a pull and independence, which says if you are persuaded that some time in the future of scotland with milk and honey within defenders,

would you consider voting for that to any point is that your question, that's a really good idea that's, that's going to go into the next will give kelly scott goes. bob, thank you so much for joining me, alex simon. show us the only pull that kind of election very well. so says every politician, facing adverse opinion polls, whenever you politician, peace here to the pulling. and the pause can set the temperature of election campaigns, particularly and by elections. there are plenty of examples of single post changing the entire mood of the election. and given the often shameless a beast of pulling bi partisan press, it opens up the argument. the pulling should be bonds in the immediate run up to pulling d. in reality, the art of manipulating poor results hasn't changed much since the humphrey applebee. instructive the naive, bernard willy, on how to produce the answers which will wanted in a classic edition of yes minister. however sophisticated the science of pulling

becomes, there will still be both forecasting triumph. i'm disasters and posters will likely have a balance of plot is i'm break but for some time to come. but for now, from alex myself and all the show is good by stay safe and hope to see you again. next me ah, me ah, ah ah ah, ah,

ah ah, ah, the ah, the british government wounds of a severe risk of a terrorist attack, a car will add ports to the minister of information says the threats being exaggerated, to smear the new leadership. and spoke to our senior correspondent who's in the afghan capital. the foreign secretary puts a brave face on relations with the united states saying that they remain.