special immigrate, immigrant visas that these, these are for people who work with u. s. military and the embassy interpreters, translators advisors. and then the priority 2 visas are those. that's where people who work with american organizations and projects that were supported by the u. s. government. what about this isis k group, chris that's fairly new on the scene. it hasn't had much press attention. and in the past few years, a lot of people saying what is isis k some already saying the ice s k is actually making the taliban look good. your thoughts? well, you know, isis k, which is primarily composed of isis members out of afghanistan and pakistan was actually a primary target of the us military in the closing months of the war. i and i interpreted what happened today is a kind of revenge attack. if you, if you can remember back in 2017, the pentagon drop would call the mother

a ball bombs. this is a massive ordinance. air blast on the ice case stronghold killed an estimated 96 fighters. the taller bond itself is clashed with isis k. i think the high end is there are no more than 2 or 3000 people. but clearly they have a motive, particularly what happened in the waning months of the us occupation where they were targeted to go after us forces at the airport. and that's how i interpreted what happened today. and they are, you know, pretty vicious organization. if you remember in may, they attacked girl school and ca, ball cobble, where they killed 68 people, a wounded, another 165, almost all of them girls. so you know, they're a nasty, nasty outfit. and, and what's interesting of course,

is that the taller bond and they are there's a deep enmity between the taliban and ice s k. i, chris, i just, john list ortho and host of on contact joining us here on the program. thanks a lot, chris. appreciate it. good to see you. thank you and thank you for joining us as well here on our team to national the program dos resume very soon as my colleague, collin braid. more of the continuation of our special coverage from us. got his daughter for the meantime. thank you for joining us. ah, ah, welcome to the alec sam issue where we look at the history of political pulling in the u. k. the very 1st general election portal for the 1945 election. where wartime

leader, winston churchill was isolated. and what was seen as a shock results. however, it wouldn't have been as great a shock if people had placed confidence in the gout pulling for the news chronicle, which had been showing lon, fight level labor leads for the previous 2 years. and these gallops final election pool was only one points i had for both labor on story. after that or suspicious start that have been many pulling said back that you kill actions, notably 970. when the post misled, huddled off and into dashing to the ballot box on 1992. when you made it to fight, the post is not to victory from the jaws of defeat. however, with modern statistical techniques, the post is claimed that they get more elections, right. federal. from the earliest coverage of television elections, the posters himself, had become the story was to david butler and robert mackenzie pi,

needing the celebrated single. mister morton equivalence is professor john curtis, who then supreme today's tv pulling, he joined alex. but not everybody take support to face value online commentators in particular law, but the means to meet is abusive pools in the coverage. again, there's nothing new in this. in the 1945 election, when gallet was correctly predicting a labor line flight, the daily express posters were forecasting a dead heat. alex speaks to james kelly. the scottish website goes logos all this later and michelle, but 1st, your tweets emails and messages and response to i show your last amendment of william nichol says yes, excellent show. time in the countries of the world were left to solve the all problems, as you rightly mentioned, money used for war. instead use for improvement and ordering the people's quality of life. ivan alex says sensitive and recent analysis by peter and alex,

much better than the dog was reporting we see on many m. s same channels. gord, mackenzie says, always enjoy listening to peter o'beirne, honest observations and always to the point to these said peter, all born is excellent, very informative mohammed abdul. i says, why did to these? i may feel so badly prime minister. she speaks a lot offence. the name p doing says u. s. a cannot betray the slogan, nobody left behind. when are they? no book hobby says, this is what hope looks like most and parts have invaded afghanistan to the ages because it was a cheat gateway. all field, the americans are only the latest. if the west stop time to meet them, at least the western society, they would have the only hope they can have and not the hope of escaping it. as this leads to excursion has proven. professor john curtis is today's unclaimed king of the tv posters. alex, interviews him about the long history of political pulling so fast. so some john

cost us. welcome to valley simon. show. nice to be acts. so let's go back to almost the door and the flick of pulling in the united kingdom, the 1945 general election. so here was a situation where the news color, one of the great papers of the day, we're featuring gallup polls. for 2 years before the election book, slavery wasn't sure the labor, latin slave leap, but nobody but nobody believed that was possible. what was going on? well the truth is, this was the last election which opinion powering was taking place the previous one, jackson course being back in 1935 on the advent of god of polls. really dates from the late 19th thirties, particularly in the wake of their success in forecasting that roosevelt was going to win the 936 us presidential election. when i now infamous readers pulled up by

readers, digest suggested that he was going to learn was when got ready again, the reputation, but the 945 action i just after the 2nd world war was the 1st opportunity forgot to do his partner in the course, most people saw it because vincent judge was prime minister registered judge, who was the person who i delivered victory for you. i can do in the 2nd world war that co. c would be react agent as prime minister. but of course, the electric decided otherwise or not in a sense, for help to cement the idea. that opinion polls could indeed sometimes tell us something we wouldn't otherwise know. know that opinion polls have always been breed ever since. i certainly can remember on many occasions before the 997 new general where of course, whenever party also got a large size box upon it because it was the polls had some of restoration, maybe solution. and right, you know, due to lots of people did not believe that i was going to get

a lot of game on this occasion. least. all right, so what recent history has been the greatest pulling disaster. it was been the occasion when the, the postal saw most of them, or perhaps even all of them had egg all over the faces. yeah, well the 3 and i was, i jotted me on the hall. so if any opinion poster inside the cache, the 1st is 970, they are not sure how wilson cold quite suddenly, off the back of arising maybe opinion paul standing. and the opinion polls kept on suggesting that he was going to read actually some life pine, particularly one paul john wiping and research suggested that maybe there was a ring and maybe up she was trying to make it. what indeed he did my good and that resulted in the 1st substantial inquiry as to why the poles coffee wrong. and the answer was essentially was, yeah, there was a late spring and you have to remember back in those days when your balls were

being conducted by interviewers going out and knocking on people's doors. so they couldn't be done a last minute in the same way. they can be either john, sexually over the internet. so that was the last. well, the 2nd one was 1992. when the opinion polls seemed to suggest that perhaps liberal party was at least going to deny the conservative majority, maybe we have a part of much in the, to the concert is that for the reason perhaps was essentially to do with the samples. were all necessary documents, they should be putting particular over several people living in social housing. and then finally 2016 where again the pol suggested possibly got to get on top of much that in practice david car and go to the with georgie. and i don't hear a very substantial x, so i started by party. so just now let's see. on behalf of

a bridge protocol was that basically the samples were wrong. in particular, one of the different pieces began to rise for 2015 was that they were part, it was a lot more popular, much younger than it was most old about as a big age job. knowing how people liked on one of the different things. suppose find it difficult to get right, is who's going to turn out to vote and who doesn't? and younger about just are less likely to vote, so i'm pretty, not enough. should the polls underestimate the age differences in turner, in other words, they overestimated. the proportion of the younger people are going to turn out because ought to be the younger people who they could get hold off to do. but that p as the pulse didn't get held off, stay home, and therefore the engine i ended up overestimating labor exposure. so 3 great disasters written on how to post this one by the way, that is not

a disaster walked in. so i could just be 2060 you referendum. actually some of the polls about actually police are we're going to win on if you take all of the polls that were conducted during the reference job site, the more said that you were going to be ahead remain always very close. it was close. it's justin again. in taught, nobody could believe the country didn't vote, leave that for the polls and suggested that we might what discounted not a member of the 2015 election. i was rather counting on the hung parliament. the pulls were, were forecasting. but even though these changes, know these in quite a, so it's not impossible. know, is it going to be plain sailing from posters, from the law of the, of, you know, all these difficulties. i mean that they are the owners. truth is onyx opinion. polling is always difficult in the circumstances. so, i mean again, one very simple trade. if we go box 30 years or so,

whether or not people budget cars or labor days will allow me to bring job my spot . that's why most people day, even in scotland basically working class people who are much more likely to work like middle class people much more likely to be conservative. those days are over in the 29 junior action. labor was no longer working jobs versus was much middle just by just the conserves, were probably slightly for success. amongst more contrasts matches, the neighbor was not entire resort. abraxas not, not change circus jobs means a post is used to spend a lot of time making sure they had, at least, you know, the right number of middle josh isn't working, talks about, isn't that pose or 23, that's now relevant. on the other hand, whether or not you've got a degree or not, now matters twice a lot in a way to rex it. but actually getting accurate information about somebody's

education qualification is quite difficult because there's so many qualifications. if you're thinking about a letter that's been education, refer you to parish getting. how could information about that is more difficult without pulses hard to start to grow with. in other words, while they're trying to get changes over time, but at the same time methodology, chances are times already set. so most you don't have the internet, but hospitals, we don't just have disadvantages. not embrace on the internet, but he's wanting to do drugs regina pulse quickly about some of the downsides until really the 1980s. it was all being done, trying to fight circle, protest shopping. so the methodology changes, the circumstance, change that of course. and so what i smoked in the parking system completely changes and stuff, and it was dominated by the s and p. and so therefore again, the circumstances change. what we're trying to measure is changed by that's what we

charge, changes i, the post of not less than election polls in the between the legs had to post to protect themselves against the nefarious newspapers. who might present a marginal change in pulling as if it was some dramatic effect with going back to 945. and if i got a lot of forecasting and leave a lunch laid, miraculously deal express we're forecast to get dead heat on polling. so how to post of protect themselves against the failure newspapers. while this is undoubtedly something of a potentially quite difficult area. i mean, i can tell you as president person council, what we do is we do not require all companies. and basically, all of that, everybody does a premium part in the u. k. his signed up to, to its rules. one of his many rules is every talk with the principal goes out, we remind people, the protocol reminds people. nokia opinion polls within about 4 points of the true

value of about 95 percent of the time. but if the movement between 2 poles is less than 4 points, you know, you may just simply be random variation to which all polls are subject to nothing really by necessary to change. well, that's what the post is, but there is no doubt the news bodies just dictates even arises a couple of points. it will get headlined, particularly the worse, if the conservative legion opinion polls dropped by 2 or 3 points. now, we suggested dr. bars, johnson is potentially in trouble burst cancer. well, actually 2 or 3 movements on the lead is something that could very, very easily. harper as a result of something out. but the truth is, i suppose, just try to keep people honest, by the way,

which may report that poses. they do all the time. got dr. health warning, but it's very difficult to stop the newspapers. particularly the headlines, perhaps claim more for what their opinion polls say that perhaps some of us who bought more judicious suggested wars coming up on to the big alex continues this discussions with professor sir john curtis. welcome back. i was continuous, his discussions with professor sir john curtis, an event joined by david kelly of the blog. scott goes pope. a terminal is about professor john cuff to some in the, grew up looking at david butler and bob mckenzie in the spring, almost on the same. my goodness, i want to do that was, was always, should i'm bishop to become the number one political pundit for polls. no, but what is true is,

shall we say i had an unusually early interest in politics. people vote. so my 1st political memory is the death of you guys in 1960 strange on the subsequent leadership reduction. how it works and one, again, it's james car. and that's the point in which i started reading newspapers who took an interest in this reaction. i then remember being allowed to say, oh my, my parents are age 910 for the 900. 64 at your program, which of course was david about doing book mackenzie high. no, indeed. i don't remember following the case. i had the following day, but i was allowed to stay up for a while and to remember to talk. so i still would beginning about program. so i was watching kind of a certainty for chip i know. fast forward when i became

a graduate student in 1976, my supervisor wasn't dave butler z now is so it's the same bus. and her date was one of the 2 types of girls. so i actually have been behind the scenes at each and every general action since 1979. but for a long time, basically behind the scenes on that started during the corrections were pretty much every round of english, no collections in 1981. so i've actually don't have a 40 yes of elections. i'm now i think the longest running person all the baby see crude david demo pay has finally retired because that's my concert tonight. was david's 1st one. but most of the time actually working on reduction so which actually can be much more side. but eventually more recently i've been driving much

more into the front of cameras. not least cost because independence referendum what you are certain where of course, no strong mercy. anybody who could say anything about what was going on as a friend who was much in demand by any television station was going undoubtedly raised my profile. so the answer is it's showing different a of the people who i knew like got me and started to do that after graduate people decided to put me in front of cameras was behind. and that's why becoming a relative. okay, well please to help provide a boost of television profile or john awful lot time. do you have an absolute favorite election of all not experience as a something you could say. yeah, i'm glad i was covering that one. yeah, i'm not,

i'm actually my favorite moments of all the vast young actions i've been involved in is 997 and it is the port to the moment she most of my microphone last to see to not nice to the reasons why i remember the job i was sitting in like bunco i was doing by the number of elections which was analyzing the results as they came in and telling people like they didn't like professional jimmy king who was the bbc's, fun person for a long time is very, very, very good. broadcaster, but i was doing the work behind the scenes and reading the lines about what was going on, sexual, etc. i had a b, b, c produced. was because sean are writing motions donor southern career on the independent. but she assured job was to keep on trying me to be doing this the

other to be following the program and show was not long. i was wondering what will we got to shirt and i said show, sit, shut off. we're not going to get anything on for the next 2 hours. this is high political drama and until gosh, is played out. nobody's going to talk about the fact that the swing is slightly greater than also drinks and that is in the shop to bring the water. so that's our doctrine. i think the most dramatic of nights, partly because of the fact that so many people lost that sheets, but also because so many people couldn't possibly help the faculty, john cut us pulling good extraordinarily. thank you so much for joining me and nelly simon show. so you're welcome, but now everyone is as confident that the off to political pulling. and if you say so no joined by james kelly of the blog, scott was pop. james,

welcome to the examine show. i alex, good to be here. how are you? i'm very well, but your blog has a note of skepticism about opinion pulls, at least about the, the use of opinion polls and what was the law both? well, and obviously i'm a true independent lager in scotland and, and scotland. we have a problem with media, which is overwhelmingly dependents, are skeptical about independence, almost the entire instrument there, with the exception of one. your spectrum is against independence and they're the ones that are the commissioning, the polls. and so you're going to get an agenda crating and you're going to get, you know, emissions question to are sort of are, or the question was the wrong way. maybe that was, results will be time played. maybe results will be misinterpreted slightly. so as, as, as more that kind of the relationship between poles and the media. i think of the problem in scotland be suggesting that you got the of the, any of these other highly reputable pulling organizations of the starting

information. i think, i think sometimes the information comes back in the media to store fits and you know, numerous examples of, you know, for example, on your paper at a search results which only applied and the run up to 20. you know, like when the one by one slide, it's a cad. the results of a pull. the only covered labor held constituencies and only put into the on that project surf, which covered the whole going for national results and then presented the seats present soon as if it was a national result. and people pointed, i want it done, but it was there are oblivious to just build those, the big you kind of a sense and you get no sense and the media do have the topic of mass representing pull it and sounds sometimes quite it's not even, it's not even that you say it was a mess. interpretation or it's just wrong. what they're, what they're actually doing. i mean, they make factually, an accurate claims about their whole family making death. some in your example from

the 2015 election, the one of the union us newspapers, the starting with us out of a signal opinion didn't do them any good. the same piece, the one the election and a lot of slides. so what is the motto for the odd distortion here and there? yeah, i think this is the big question. whether you know, that's related with distortion ice, they make money, or whether you know, who or results can make any difference. you know, as you know, in the run of the 2014 election and run up to 2014 referendum gosh, independent selling 2013. there was a whole string of polls showing us the dreadful results for the yes campaigns of the pro independent campaign. and my concern was fucking the life of the campaign and the people wouldn't really engaged with the campaign because we're thinking, right, that's something we're going through the motions, but it's just something we already know the outcome holes. and there were people are probably approaching the very best, at least that would. it was a genuinely competitive election referendum. and i thought that might make it

possible for us to make up like right. of course i was, you know, not the case. and yet that may come back, or perhaps it doesn't matter. i feel like it's courts are concerned because i was never going to do anything else. was going to make any difference was always going to harm. yes. not the new something black or you secret, james? i was hoping that the polls wouldn't show a yes lead until the referendum day, and we'd sneak up and catch them at the end. and it was greatly to of misfortune and my view as the leader of the s campaign back in the day that suddenly times bull showed us i had with 10 days to go out of much trouble, hadn't happened. so something's been behind in the bulls. this is not a bad thing. yeah. good for as long as you're a little bit behind, you know, as long as you're as long as are competitive, but you know, maybe that's the idea place to be. but those pools in 2014, we're showing anything that suits one majority for no i think when it's like last when it doesn't even look competitive people,

i just think we'll find that even bother thinking about that because we already know what the what was the competitive maybe there isn't that being the younger, but i think if you're far behind and if you're being preventative, being behind, potentially for problem for having you got a foot in both camps. i know you, you're brought regularly advertising. so as you can do your own polls that make good the state, how can you criticize these dreadful poll stuff and, and then be getting into the whole thing yourself. or we have to even sign up at that. no. and if we're having all these tools that are sort of the unionist inclined questions, we might be a little bit and the other direction and for even things up slightly. so that's well for being one person. maybe one reason i noticed in the any blog you're taken to do using exaggerated the headlight use of commentary on the some of the union as tablets, giving them a taste of little medicine. yeah. you know like daily bethany for what comes that

regard with what a show is bomb cell poll hallmark bloom for starts and attendance staff. saturday, annihilated flight. i want it response to the so you've been doing the opposite. last thing must have boost for independence. if it's on one percent shift point you and vice be a bit, the people reading your blog. when would you advice be to treat the pulse of pension. so off to say, well over the peace, they tend to show trends that you should take, take notice of him home and what your base are, belong to be to, to, to people looking at opinion goals. sometimes what will happen as, for example, of the independence question and, you know, an independent client will come along with the pressure group or something. come along, commissioner for asking a question, isn't really about independence on the french really showing, you know, friends,

terrible, dropping support for independence and then you staples or look for you just basically regard to say the press release and you find us to the question off with nothing, i was completely different question that being presented. what the look at us for the question i, i think before you jump to the conclusion that the trend can be meaningful. so every trip in the room of the scot goes pop. i'm going to commission a pull and independence, which says if you were persuaded that some time in the future of scotland with milk and honey within defenders, would you consider voting for that to any point? is that your question? that's a really good idea that's, that's going to go into the next to james kelly. scott goes, bob, thank you so much for joining me, alex simon. show us the only pull that kind of election very well. so it says, every politician facing adverse opinion polls, but every politician piece here to the pulling and the pause confessed the temperature of election campaigns,

particularly and by elections. there are plenty of examples of single post changing the entire mood of the election. and given the often shameless a beast of pulling bi partisan press, it opens up the argument, the pulling should be bonds and the immediate run up to pulling d. n reality. the art of manipulating poor results hasn't changed much since sir humphrey applebee. instructive. the naive. bernard willy, on how to produce the answers which will wanted in a classic edition of yes, minister. however sophisticated the science of pulling becomes, there will still be both forecasting triumphs and disasters. i'm poor 5th will likely have a balance of plot is i'm brick, but for some time to come. but for now, from alex myself and all the show is good bye stacy's. i hope to see you again next me. ah,

me ah, the ah headlining right now one, i'll see a double tara attack. cobble apple during evacuation efforts kill $72.00, and hinges. $158.00, with at least 12 us military personnel among the dead. correspondent who's that said. there were several more bluffs which the taliban claims the american forces destroying the ammunition and islamic state affiliates in afghanistan known as i said, k says it carried out the bombings that as the taliban condensed the attack.