1st of all, our country has made a great leap over the last 20 years. it took many of our neighboring western countries 50 to 100 years to do the same. so we progress at a much greater pace when it comes to press. it is free as long as it doesn't infringe on the freedom of others. if there are organizations which seek to spread their influence using foreign funds or then they should be open about it. and then the rationale behind their stance would make sense. if in fact they were powerful and enjoyed real support from their viewers in readers, they wouldn't have to worry about anything up front. they would feel as confident as most of them in our country watch. and so all this talk about stifled freedom of speech in russia is premature. it remains to be seen immediately. the cord? yes. well, that's all for us, sir. dantes election headquarters for this. our rest assured our team if the anchors and correspondents are going to stay with you right through the remaining campaign days, not long to really wait now because actually in the far east of russia, those pulling brazil the opening in about 30 minutes time. i'll be voting to,

i know, he said i was whole heartedly behind the cup of tea party of change though, i'm off to express my support with a cup of coffee party, almost called a floating voter. i'll be back with more in half an hour the the hi a mash guys or this is be kaiser re port. well here now, we also coming off different places. i think. right,

well you and i have been covering here on the kaiser report for the last decade at least, but especially with the last 6 months of as we lead up to the 50th year of fi out when the us went off the gold standard in august 15th 1971, we've been looking at all the problems of the trip and dilemma with, you know, all the consequences of the exorbitant privilege. and one of the things you see is, as we've covered in nigeria, where they've turned to bitcoin, we've seen hyper quantization there because they had no access to dollars during this crisis. during cove it as world trade shut down, we're seeing a similar situation emerge and st mancha. and i believe bitcoin fixed. as this shrill lanka declares food emergency, as for ex crisis worse and sherlock has declared a state of emergency over food shortages that according to the government are caused by hoarding. as private banks say they are running out of foreign exchange

to finance import. the move followed a sharp rise in the price of sugar, rice, onions, and other basic ingredients. right, right. for ex markets are cause thing. food shortage is and was bitcoin. you don't need a for ex market. that's the plain, an obvious and simple truth and country after country is beginning to realize that going to scape the maitre on the us dollar, you do not have sovereignty full stop. this is part of what we've been covering with the trip and dilemma is that there's always going to be that dilemma where a currency and national currency is the world's reserve currency is during a time of crisis, whether it's the 20082009 financial crisis, or the covert pandemic, the la downs. what happens is, you know, obviously the elect leaders going to allocate all their time and resources to the domestic population. an international population therefore has no currencies with which to trade. we saw that with nigeria, that's why they went to hyper bit quantization because there was still there

economy by the way, didn't shut down that much because it's much younger and they can afford to shut down. so they had demand still for it used cars and nigeria, but there was no, you know, there were no us dollars with which to trade with japan or trade with china for used cars to be important in tonight's area. so either they could just say it, ok, well, because we can't get dollars, we're just going to starve to death. instead, they turned to bitcoin and here is a solution i think, to shrivel as the problem is like the government is actually having to shut down imports in order to avoid further depletion of their reserves. because they said the economy shrank by a record 3.6 percent in 2020, because of the pandemic in march. last year, the government band in ports of vehicles and other items including edible oils and to merrick. 3 an essential spice and local cooking in a bid to save foreign exchange. however, importers still say they have been unable to source dollars to pay for the food medicines that they are allowed to buy. so their foreign exchange reserves have

absolutely plummeted. and we'll get into that, but basically it weighs down to $2800000000.00 in july from $7300000000.00 and november. right? this is part of the theme of the collapse of globalization. the collapse of dollarization and one might argue the collapse of neoliberalism. now the, the american model, the washington consensus and countries are starting to reject that full plate of foreign influence. and in places like el salvador, they're simply going to a big coin standard, and there are g d p, a set to double in the next couple years. right? but again, like the point about the story about sri lanka is there is demand. there is desire there's, they want these products, they're not allowed to have these products because in order to do so would require

foreign exchange being sent overseas because they need it. they have a shortage of dollars. so if you had or a neutral currency, a neutral payments rail, whereby any demand could be met through the payments rail. despite the situation of global trade, you wouldn't have these sorta situations whereby shall august foreign reserves. as i said, fell to 2800000000 at the end of july from 7500000000. sorry, i said $7300000000.00 but $7500000000.00 in november of 2019. when the government took office and the roof pay has last more than 20 percent of its value against the us dollar in that time, according to the bank energy minister. dia, government has appealed to motorists to use fuel sparingly, so that the country can use as foreign exchange to buy essential medicines and vaccines. right. well, who benefits from the for x markets? it's the people who are in the money changing business, and they get an override on all that money sloshing in flashing out. and they get

a commission, they get a ron t, a globalized finance, lies economy. and when it breaks down, whether through the pandemic crisis or the global financial crisis, the people who are not finance ears are all going to get penalized. the finance years are not getting penalized the right. they're using this as an opportunity to even gouge more from the people. that's why the people and we said are now salvador have said, you know what, we're just going to go to a big point standard and get rid of the whole. the whole lot of you, well, the salvador experiment is ongoing, it's, i think, an experiment which will prove to displace especially for in developing economies. and even the financial times is now reporting this, that bit quite make sense for a developing economy because of these issues like for ex reserves and trying to manage inflation, trying to manage the problem here in atlanta is very high inflation. and these

staples, of course, we at kaiser port saw this back in 2010, 2011 after a similar situation whereby a huge amount of money printing met financial crisis. and now we have even more money printing meeting this pandemic crisis. and that the domestic economy could keep on like just printing and printing to feed the people. whereas that, that the how it filters out to the rest of the world is what ends up costing huge inflation. and then we saw in 2010 and 11 crises across the world and huge riots and governments overthrown. so we'll keep an eye on what's happening and re lanka, but this could just be the 1st of many stories to come if it's any, if, if history rhymes with what happened in 201-2011 which we covered here. but, you know, of course there's somebody as well that's winning and another nation as winning

during this whole crisis because yes indeed, americans are by and large getting huge quantities of stimulus checks and hands on employment benefits. so for those who don't understand like what the enhance unemployment benefits have been, is that you get your normal unemployment benefits. but everybody has, if they were made unemployed, they got their standard unemployment benefits. that was for the past few decades, the expectation of what you would get on top of that. they got an extra $600.00 a week on top of their ordinary benefits. so people were, a lot of people were making a whole bunch more me on top of that, they also didn't have to pay rent and they didn't have to pay their mortgages. many millions of people didn't do that for the past 18 months, so they were flush with cash. some people get upset, the comments saying that they deserve this and blah, blah, blah. what i'm, where we're talking about is the macro consequences of that. because obviously they're staying at home, they're receiving these enhance on employment benefits. they're not paying rent,

but they're flush with cash and they want to buy and they spend and spend and spend on durable goods, who is still working. we're not working here obviously, but they are working in china. china's exports strengthen despite cobra, 19 disruptions, august data shows shipments of imply and says furniture and clothing grew helping offset waning demand for pandemic related goods. chinese export unexpectedly expanded at a faster clip in august, shrugging off the impact of a global resurgence of the crone of virus pandemic port congestion and supply bottlenecks. china is outbound shipments. rose 25.6 percent in august from a year earlier. higher than the 19.3 percent increase in july, the general administration of custom set on tuesday. the result also comfortably topped the 17 percent increase expected by economists pulled by the wall street journal. right, so the, my print thing in the us, the stimulus tax are going for the most part,

the china. and they gave me an amik power which supports their geo political possession. and the snow accident that they're also getting a little bit more what's called self confidence in their disposition toward some of their neighboring countries. and territory is this is not inflation adjusted. so if there was money printing on the order of 23 percent last year, you know, assuming that that's also adjusted there. so that's not yet adjusted. so the increase of 26 percent might just be a reflection while the money printing. but nevertheless, the fact that the economy remains open as we have covered with a stan trucking miller, the famous hedge fund manager, has taken a bet against the us dollar in the past year. and is betting as long as asia, in particular, china because of the fact that they haven't had money front and they're still open and they're creating, well, this is, this is called wealth creation. and it is a situation similar to post world war 2,

where america saw those started numbers for themselves, like they were producing all their manufactured goods in the world. and we have the era of detroit and things like that. so china could be in a similar situation, who knows, we could end up in a nuclear war instead and, and you know, way, it would all go horribly wrong. but in the meantime, shipments to each of china's major trading partners increased out of faster year over year pace in august than the prior month, according to calculations based on the official data exports to the european union, which is china's number 2 trading partner, jumped by 29.4 percent in august from a year earlier accelerating from july 17 point 2 percent rise, while shipments to the association of south east asian nations and the us china number one and 3 trading partners respectively. for 16.6 percent and 15.5 percent. yeah, i don't know. the us really messed the trick. yeah. remember i under f d r during the depression they have created

a jobs the public works programs and they built them. they built the hoover dam. i believe they built rockefeller center, they built roads, they built bridges, and america needs infrastructure rebuilder. they just went to congress to get multi trillion dollar infrastructure build package. but here, under this administration and started making up jobs with that money, they're just the fact of sending it to china that money. so they, they could, they could have actually rebuilt the infrastructure with the same amount of money that they're sent to china. but they're going to pass another bill in washington to do the infrastructure, and we know that that will never make it to the, to the, to the work either it gets stuck in the banks and into that chasm is, is the 200000000 americans and they're just being disenfranchised. yep. the, all that money gets goes to the banks, which goes to the big contractors, the, the multinational ones, which and they, they don't do any of the work. they subcontractor sub contracts that and then filters down till a few pennies to a local road. i mean,

basically the afghanistan model, what we did an afghan as well that's, that's great. we're going to take a break. and when we come back, once more, here, when it the, me ah, the food may be read or are initially yellow. maybe we assume that they going to be on the sweet side of things. i received a rounder soft and they came soon again. are they going to be sweeter in some way? i work in a room or should she popped in? she said, well, i'm getting ready to go shopping for christmas and we recycle

by there was a good device to another, shooting another safe part of american life shattered by violence. the gunman was armed with an a ar 15 any automatic rifle. when the issue comes home, it's time to act when we're filing on this issue, the other side wind by default, lady that lives over there. i was walking one of the dogs. why do you wear again? were you scared? that's such a good offer. i think the people need to take responsibility in their own hands and be prepared if those kind of weapons were less available. we wouldn't have a lot of shootings and we certainly wouldn't have the number down. i the me welcome back to the kaiser report. i'm nice guys are time now to return our conversation on michael pena. pencil port dot com.

michael, welcome back. always good to be with you max. well, ear latest method that goes out to your followers is entitled the great deflation of 2022. ok. so you're looking ahead the next year, and so you're, you're thinking that there's going to and our previous, when we talked about the new k average, back in 1989 and had a huge collapse of peak that is $40000.00 on the knee k there is this 20 year deflationary period. so you're making a comparison. you think that the u. s. is on the cost of something similar to it and do i have that? right? i actually think that the evaluation of equity is now at 207 percent of g. d. p is something similar to what they saw in japan. you know, paul volcker day when he raised rates to 20 percent evaluation of equities as

compared to g, d, b was 35 percent. so i just don't see the fair being able to fight inflation the way they did before. so i think this might be a truncated period of inflation. and then i think they come back with a massive fiscal and monetary package. and a b at that juncture where i will join the inflation nieces. and believe that the headed decided that is going to engender the treasury is going to engender intractable, stifling with rising interest rates and plunging g d p growth because we lose all competence, our federal reserve to support the dollar and the u. s. bond market, i think that's sad to say, but i think the game is over max, you know, they think keeps bluffing, that we can normalize interest rate. but as i said in the last statement, you know, you take the fed funds rate, the 5 and a quarter and you're going to be a $125.00 basis points higher than junk bonds show. so you know, block cielo market leverage law was market the junk bond market. the shadow banking

system. you are going to have a deflationary depression like we've never seen before in this country. it makes it look like a walk in the park so they can't really fight this inflation. and we have a shame inflation that we have today is the same inflation that whole boker type to fight in the late seventies and early eighties to look at that number again. children 7 percent of g d k is the valuation of the stock market. i believe the buffet rule is that he thinks stocks, good price, see if they exceed 100 percent o g d p. and here we are 200 percent of g d p. so clearly by any measure by any metric, stocks are extraordinarily high. if you'd or to strip out the stock buyback programs and you were had a real accurate look at earnings, that price earnings ratio would, would be closer on average, would be closer to probably $50.00 or 50 p, which again would be high,

a sort of the highest ever in history. so this idea of course, the, the home exercise of money, print thing and quantitative easing was always that while we jump start the economy and then we get taxes flowing and then we're going to pay down that debt with those taxes. you know, the trickle down, it goes all the way back to reagan and trickle down economics. david stockton, this has been with us now for 40 years. michael. what would you, would it be fair to say that what you're saying here is that we've reached the end game of this 40 year trickle down experiment? well, you could also look at price, the sales and scripts out all that engineered air earnings. they like to report on the s and p 500 record high priced sales soon. so the game changer here, the watershed it just in a moment that we reached here on the states is that we've now engendered inflation . we go all the other times before we had a crisis, the crisis engender deflation. and we had to try to attack it by lowering interest

rates and printing money. we could do that because the, the salient issue was deflation. and a pro long period protracted period of deflation. but if you have a situation where we have a truncated theory of deflation, which deploys modern monetary theory once again and helicopter money, once again, the fetch credibility is blown. so like you are alluding to the question, this is no longer an experiment. this is no longer an emergency measure. this is something that is current. we can never dream the balance sheet of the federal reserve. we can never raise interest rates. we can never and q we, we can never support the purchasing power of the dollar, not versus the you're not talking about now. the dollar on the dx one or the

bloomberg dollar index. i'm talking about supporting the dollar against real estate and stocks and hard assets. and precious metals. you never do that. so the game would be over because we have jumped the shark with inflation. what about structurally speaking? you know, back up a, 2008 craft, remember the money market funds. there was a threat of breaking the buck. and extraordinary measures were introduced to stop that from happening. and jim gardner and hank paulson they got together and they kind of rewrote all regulations as they apply to finance markets to make it possible to just channel in just torrance, of, of cash, and to strip out a lot of those regulations. so you're, as you point out your money manager, you do this day in and day out what, what did you steam structural a?

is it, is there a risk of a, been the wheels actually falling off at this point? is there are, are there any safeguards in place or is it just a house of cards writing to blog? i'll choose the ladder, mag, this is, we have a record amount of margin debt, a record amount of margin debt as a percentage of gdp. we have the biggest junk bond market in history with a tightest reads to treasuries and the lowest rate in history. we have the highest real estate values in history. the home price, the income ratio, is the highest, it ever been outside of maybe one month in 2005. we have the biggest bubble in the bond market, real estate and stock market. we have a triumvirate of bubbles and records abortions. and the problem here now is that the spanish, as they always do, they always threaten to normalize monetary policy. and when they do,

the chaos will begin, the deflation will begin. the markets will unravel very quickly. i think you're going to have circuit breakers hit. the credit markets will freeze once again. and then you're going to get, have, you're going to have power. i think you will be re appointed, yellen loves him games or gave her blessing. i don't know why this billionaire private equity guy wants this job. he's just fell off into the sunset from the end of this year, but he wants the job as can be his decision then to increase his balance sheet, which i will remind you and you know. so join this balance. she fell reserve was $800000000000.00 in december of 2007. it is now well over a trillion dobbs balance sheet is going to increase by trillions of dollars per annum after the next crisis. and i just cannot fathom how that engenders any kind of confidence in our treasury market. crushed the bond,

6 income market and, and in the stock. more. so let me ask you this back in the 3000 crisis, but the layman moment caused global contagion. since that time, particularly in asia countries, i've been buying hundreds of tons of gold and preparing themselves for the next crisis, insulating themselves against the contagion. and the dollar rising. russia, for example, is gotten rid of all their dollars. a china seems to. 4 have insulated themselves against china doing, doing the dollar with bilateral deals. ah, well, this be a similar contagion when this thing blows up, or will this be away most heavily in the u. s. so i just, europe, japan and the united states offline. and the dollars probably the most shorted currency on the planet. maybe check into japan yen. you're going to have

a lot of people who are going to be invested with dollar denominated debt and other countries. that's going to have to sell that debt and buy back dollars. so i am not predicting a dollar demise. these are the other currencies, not when the chaos is but exposed the chaos. i am telling you that the dollar would probably decline against foreign assets. like you has never declined before, but to specifically answer your question, i do not see a world where the united states goes down and the rest of the world sales often from foreigners on a concurrently. it's just not going to happen. it's not patient history. and it's not based in real economics as a money manager when, when you see the chaos in capital afghan, stan does that ripple through as a risk event, that confidence in the u. s. and the u. s. military is epping. is that a risk event for you? it is indicative, i don't know if it's

a risk event where you trade on it because you know, it's a dollar hasn't lost much value ever since we bought the bottle in afghan us. then i said, it's still more marginally up on the year where it does tell you that confidence in our president, confidence in our federal reserve confidence are in our treasury, is completely misplaced confidence. these people have no idea what they're doing. i mean the stage the has just stayed mild of phillips cur saying that inflation comes from too many people working when it's the exact opposite. inflation comes from too many people not working and giving them money to stay home and consume job owners theories are wrong. and the fact that the u. s. military supports our currency and our bond market and took a torpedo to the bow. does it is part of that picture at x poster

next crisis. when we are embrace of permanent a permanent condition of child income tax credits and hands, unemployment, ellicott their money, m m t that will all serve to expedite the demise of the dollar as the world's reserve term. yeah, on the global risk front, you know. busy we're speaking about cov, it here we got the new variance are making their presence known explosion of breakthrough cases. what's happening and israel as seemingly pretty remarkable. they are on our 4th booster. jab cases are not diminishing at all again from a risk perspective. and that would cut into can the consumer dollar at some point with the seemingly we've got about 20 seconds left. me sir. let me, let me stop you because i'm going to do you max shows you have smart, really aren't. how enjoy your program that. so i, you know, i look at cobra, one is variance and i think there's going to be

a backseat. resist the barrier emerging soon. it was not one already big. israel is very important. there teachers aren't diminishing their skyrocketing. i follow israel because there is a country that has the best vaccination program going, but they're just arising and their cations are sore. and so that has to be part of any good money, man. what's happening with toby? and so far the news is daunting to say the weeks. well, i wouldn't want to be sitting in your chair down there florida because you've got to deal with an awful lot of things going on. but somehow you managed to give your clients excellent performance. michael, thanks so much. bring on cars report. always my pleasure max, and i'm going to do it for this edition of guys report with may max kaiser and stacy. i want to thank i guess michael pants or pencil port dot com until next time by the me. ah

seafood that may be read or was yellow. maybe they see that they going to be on the sweets or find a thing to receive a rounder soft and they can assume again that they're going to be sweeter in some way. when i would show the wrong one, i'll just don't rule out the thing because the kid an engagement equals the trail. when so many find themselves will depart. we choose to look for common ground in the me the news

the good evening and welcome to our coverage of the 2021 russian state. do reelections . we've chosen this one of the central moscow high up. it's been appropriate to do as well. we're looking the kremlin c to power in the country. this is our base of operations on. importantly, i can tell you now the voting has gotten on the way in the country polling facing the rest as far as to just open that well chemicals, most of the country had to the poles on friday, but who will the voters be supporting? will be driving deep into the world of russian politics in just a few minutes.