lesson nissan to leave shanghai to lock ah ah, gas prices in europe hit a new record with the german government warning people to prepare for a close to freezing month. meanwhile, the countries energy regulator has yet to grant the operating license to the now fully completed. nord stream to gas pipeline white house d classifies a report revealing its suspected for years that the mystery sounds it supposedly attacking us government staff abroad were not unknown russian weapons, but chirping. crickets and poland accuses the e. u of blackmail for threatening to withhold cache. from regions that don't recognize l g b t brights. it isn't for me and don't worry. my colleague,

gander farmer will be here in just under an hour's time. faithful and fresh with national lab with with hello and welcome to cross paths where all things are considered. i'm peter labelle . francis macro recently said quote, the europeans must stop being naive when we are under pressure from powers, which at times harden their stance. we need to react and show we have the power and capacity to defend ourselves. bold words, but does europe have the political will to actually defend itself?

cross stock in european security. i'm joined by my guess, donald's as soon in london, he is america's professor of compared to bureau p in history at queen mary university of london. also in london. we have damian wilson. he is a former european parliament communications adviser and in oslo across the gland. deason, he is a professor at the university of southeastern norway as well as author of the new book, europe as the western peninsula of greater eurasia. right gentlemen, cross off rules and effect, that means he can jump in any time he want. and i always appreciate damien, let me go to you 1st in london, reflect upon the words of the french president. we have to say your opinions have to stop being naive. now we've heard this argument about european defense before over and over again. is it bring, is it, does it have more meaning now in life of recent events, or is it just bluster and europe? will this continue down the path that it's been on for the last few decades?

go ahead in london. well, peter, i think that term that europe has long had never taught for having its own military force. one of the, the key stomach books to that ever being realized in the past was obviously the, the presence of great britain, which, which never liked the idea. it's interesting now that now that they're out of the picture that, that micron has was now assume the role of fuss spokesman in chief for europe. ah, was angela merkel clearly out of the picture, a pretty much a lame duck. nowadays. the fox is really seeing an adoption, an opportunity hate to seize the initiative on leading on, leading your and changing that into into something that it would like ah, other time. but before this, you have to do that in partnership with germany, but that's no longer the case when we don't know how, how long it's going to take germany 2 to 4 when you government and without the backing of all the german chancellor issues of on the line of the european commissioner is, is pretty much palace. and here we have maxim, stair stepping,

he's and premature on, on what he would like to see to say done it's, it's an interesting, an interesting time. not forgetting, of course, that he also has his own presidential elections coming up in april. next year. i need to seen as a big bald statesman out there leading from the front. and i think this is probably a little bit of mixture of posture, hymnal, said, is testing the water, the say, what, what are the temperatures there in the rest of europe for, for his audition. okay. on the donald, the same question to you. i mean, i think there is a clear need, i mean it, you know, there's this whole mantra about the washington pivoting to asia and we're investing its resources and time there i and at building a new coalition to back, it's our policies visa be china. ah. so, i mean, wouldn't it be opportune right now for the europeans? think about their own pivot and have a more of an independent form and security policy inc. it go head to donald in london, but he's south of course. so having an independent foreign policy is to have

a foreign policy the 1st, but i agree that you may grant, the european union has not got a common foreign policy. it isn't got even a con fiscal regime. it isn't going to come on welfare stage. so we're, we're not talking about something which is realistic in the past. the 20 or 30 years european, the members of european union have taken different positions on foreign policy matters. and i simply don't see, even with the absence of britain, which in theory and theory through the certified the european union. i don't see in the absence of britain, but there's going to be any movement towards a common foreign policy. i saw her, the idea of it mccall, who has been such a poor president of france and so incompetent to have that he would be able to unite europe. now that the already strong man ha merkel has settled on.

i really better be beside by the time the germans have a government which will be christmas. and the friendship will be a, a pre electoral phase because i have to have the elections by april. i think even remember 2022 in which a buckle has got to fight. almost certainly against the middle of ben, who is against no just the european foreign policy, which is of even against the common currency. so the problem with euro is how to hold together, how to stop it, almost inexhaustible disintegration or ina glenn. it is a it ever, irrespective how you feel about the your opinion and i have agreed with everything that's been said on this program here. but at the end of the day and you're and i, one of the things i like about your writing, you are truly a big picture guy. um,

it seems to me that the trend is in less europe can get its act together. if i can use that kind of slang language here, it is going to be left behind. i mean, it will be left behind because it's irrelevant or a minor for a player and is as damien pointed out, you know, maybe france at one point in time will have an important foreign policy initiative . visa be the rest of the world. but it's not going to be the norm and there's no consistency here. so i mean, it seems to me, this is really a battle to avoid being coming irrelevant. because if you don't stand up for yourself, nobody else is going to do it. life moves on, go ahead, glen. yeah, i agree. well, on levels of the critical, the ability to france to pull through what it's suggesting, how strong this continues to me, it is european liter without anyone to lead. or this is not the 1st time that you have attempted to establish autonomy. my things have changed because the role that you are the possible case of largely been to establish some autonomy in order to

have more equality with the u. s. and his trans atlantic partnership, but it was under unit polar orders was intended for public defender money with the u. s. on equal partnership. now that the arrangement entailed at the us, you know, pay for european security and in return europeans, all americans. but my point is simply that this belong to a eurocentric world because with the rise of china and emergent unit world, we see that this former formats for u. s. e. a partnership no longer really works because interest are changing our and becoming more and more divergent. so the u. s. is focusing more on china and asia, and thus it's shifting both its resources and it said already, accordingly, i was very obviously obvious with sabrina dealer with australia, by the way. so when the us so years will give less to europe, but ask for more in terms of asking you to, for example, come from china. and this is where i'm out of the tensions are these like a common interest and when you're peanuts the way, i think they do have a dilemma one hand, they seek to maintain the relevant to the u. s. by, for example, accepting but nato should also be an anti chinese lives. however,

no matter what they do with this will be very superficial in temporary because china's too far waiting in the segment. nothing else. a threat to the european union to the same extent pregnancy dominance in the asia pacific. so it's also the problem for the used by joining this u. s. chris, a crusade against both the russia and the chinese. the u. s. isolated south because it becomes less able to diversify pies and thus successively relies on the us. so i and i only use the bus and prioritize your so the solution is simply for the you, in my opinion, at least a diversified ice. so develop an independent foreign policy towards it. the extent is possible, as well as both the russians and the chinese and by all means keep the trans atlantic partnership alone, but also find a place in his chin on you bridge or your asian partnership with his marcy ration house. he owned a minute, it seems to me when i, when i look at this here in kind of an echo with glen just said to us here is that

in the, the u. s. takes it as a axiomatic, that, that, that europe will go long to pursue or push forward a, washington's foreign policy interests. you know, you take care of the russians for us and we'll take care of the chinese, or we want you to be anti chinese who. i mean, it's, it's very derogatory in the way i look at it. i mean, why should the, the, an economy that's larger than the united states population larger than the united states? it basically be a junior partner and just being a messenger, for washington's bidding. i mean it in it during the cold war that made kind of sense. but i mean, i, you know, 30 years out, i don't see the, any sense of that, particularly the withdrawal from afghanistan, the submarine dealer. i mean, when, when somebody in europe go to wake up and say, geez, maybe we got, i totally rethink this thing. go ahead. oh, how does i, i mean, i'd like to play donald trump because i think, i mean, thanks. i mean, thank you, president trump, him. he basically has driven europe back into a more in shall in,

shall looking world. ah, they realize that nato is, is not the bill and all before from present. macklin took france back into into night. i remember after 43 year absence, he called the organization brained it. so even though he's a member of nato, he clearly doesn't have a lot of respect for it. i think that across the, across on the, the europe as well, that the governor nature of governments have changed. we've seen the, the, the decline of the, you know, the root, the strongest christian democrats government under merkel, which was a problem solving government elect, any reality elegy which had been taken away from it by, by the far right. and, and in the, and the far left in either seeks. and of course, the grains, as i, we with, with seeing is a shift in the way that the, the politics is being played out. and being far more domestic. you've got strong leaders in poland and in the hungry i left a strong leader in, in france. obviously we're going to have

a mess initially. but these are looking at the domestic issues. but they're also looking at that the nina bonus. so it's places like turkey, turkey is in a gateway country to a far different univers out there that has nothing to do with america. really. it's very in a middle east as all the problems that are out there, all the various, issues that we will have to deal with out there. i the north, but ukraine and beyond that, russia and obviously everyone took their own waived of dealing with russia, while germany is quite, quite i nibble with the particular of the nurturing to pipeline on the k number words. if i can better, in other words, go ahead donald giant country. each country has a different perception of their relations, which should be as a nation, as a country, as a state with china or with russia. yes, together, europe is necessarily weak, precisely because we use the word europe, but it doesn't really mean anything. and the consequence of this is that the united

states can behave in the most bizarre way calls europe, ignoring not, not in telling them by the way where we're growing from afghanistan. not even telling them by the way we're making a special paxton with australia and the united kingdom. so the humiliation pied on the humiliation and there is no way in which europe can form a hear all that. and i, and i jump in here, i'm going to hold, i'm gonna jump in here, please hold that, that we're going to go to a hard break. and after that hard break, we'll continue our discussion on european securities name starting ah, join me every thursday on the alex salmon. sure. i'll be speaking to guess when the world politics spoke. business, i'm show business. i'll see you then. mm. oh,

driven by dreamer shapes banks concur some of those with theirs sinks, we dare to ask a one. no, sir, no, not a joke. no, no. well dog, more real to what they should end up unit 73. 1 was a unique organization in the history of the world. what they were trying to do was to simply do nothing short and build the most powerful and most deadly

biological weapons program that the world had ever known. and real no took production, but it gives you, oh sure good. did that? they're not huge. when you suddenly little brochure he moved my general manager thought this meant a much sale. i mean, i understood, i wish to know about julie. whoa, whoa knew david gosh, more pushed in jail. it's i had to put a couch that, oh boy festival. to go or oh, i want to talk my annuity. oh,

i can send more. oh simone gates in a year, you know and put them out there to give us any welcome back across stock. we're all things considered on peter lavelle to remind you we're discussing european security. ah okay, i want to go back to donald in london because you were on a role as we had to go to at break there to kind of sum up what you had to say. what question is beggs? i mean, is it even possible for europe today to have a coherent foreign policy? i mean, because if i, you know, distill what you had to say, every country is going to do what it wants to do eventually. so there, by definition, by default there is no such thing as a european foreign policy. did i get that right? go ahead donald in london. absolutely,

absolutely. but it's not by default or anything. there is no european comment. foreign policy. an end of story may be there should be one, but in order for that to appear, you will need quite a lot of work among 27 countries with each having a different electrodes and another him, a half of the day we get off of the 2nd continue, the degree of euro skepticism has increased enormously in the last 20 years, just a italy, which shows to be the most pro european country of the van european union. and the leading parties are now you're a skeptic. the in france, my le pen need a 50 percent of the vote. presumably when i hope you get more is also your skeptic . and of course i'm poland, and hungary and song. they're not exactly the dying to have a common foreign policy. they want to have their own foreign policy. that is

perfectly reasonable it's. it's never what the, your opinion was about. he opinion was that, you know, was a security or a security threat rarely, between, between nations. it wasn't all the countries did not the security. no, it was not a security back, it was an acre nomic practice when he can either be hardly artist appear to provide security in the, in the, in the aftermath of, of, of the, the 1st 4 are the, sorry, 2nd global. and in our around the time in the balkans it'll show showed how powerful could be. but i think the european people don't, they don't want the europeans for from brussels to be making their foreign policy decisions. you only have to see how extraordinary it is when you're on the line and by shells. we shall turn up at things like the g 7 summit and sit on the outside. i almost like the or the bridesmaids at the wedding it's. it's a strange thing to say. they are trying to muscle in and become what be considered world ladies when a sitting amongst the other, the leaders of u. k. u. s. japan, i mean even kana canada and they look kind of feel

a little bit lost. they're just not wanted on that stage. they did, but you know, they had sort of furniture to that to the proceedings are hooked to where you are. so where we've been discussing, i sure. yeah. coming from. well, i'm going to tell you why gentlemen, this is a perfect segue to go to glen right now. glenn has a new book out. absolutely fascinating. subtitle to it. i really like it. europe as the western peninsula of greater eurasia. explain, or simply an argument simpler. you're kind of grown up and it's a trans atlantic partnership as an economic region, which shows them translates into it so, massaging foreign policy. now my, my argument simpler, they can amik interests tend to discounts for more and you have this new greater you ration constellation coming along bush by. 1 countries like china, russia and it's kind of demanding that the, you know, i mean,

it's fine. so we have cooperating with this new constructor in order for not in order not to become to isolate in and i guess, wait to some extent see all ended up happening now. it is a good way to describe the relationship with united states as well. for example, it's what the youth going through now i would compare to what russia went through before in the 90s, in 2000. because russia have changed this if the same challenge as therapy in union by russia only attempt to time economic integration with the rest. and became too dependent on for this reason, whatever rockdale, the westwood would offer a rush. i was always the best option on the table because the west coast, the only game in town now that russia diversifying it's a economics, even if the west, it's true. somebody deals or sanctions, russia, camila ships, is focused towards the east, which is what it's doing. and this is kind of my argument as well as what the european union must do as well by not the lightning. it's solely to the u. s. a country and the relative decline that has less than the strategic interest in

europe. and witness there, there are some problems endemic in with the 2 biggest nations that would have to be deal with russia, i guess. and china mean russia with the, the nurturing to deal which america tried to press germany to abandon. but the fact of the things nearly none, 8 percent completed at least angel myrtle. convinced that this made no sense, but they had more success with convincing ye ye to abandon its it's our china tried to which had spent so many years getting together. and then the american said, you know what, you just join us in a bit of push the hinge talk and, and ditch this petition. some planning i did. so i completed europe in the fall in so easily. that's the pressure they got from america. i agree, go ahead. no, i go down, i will not put, i will not put the relation between europe and russia at the same level on a similar level rather than the relation with china. the 2 countries are extremely

different. russia exports or is fundamentally primary product. the fundamentally energy gas and oil, the export of china is not, is exactly the opposite. is consumer goods. you walk into a supermarket of big shop in london and the stuff from china is absolutely enormous. i mean, we will go wrong with moscow made in china, you know, to 100000000 of them and that, that, that, that, the, them, it in china, the stuff we buy from russia. caviar if we're rich or both come yes. but otherwise, it's gas and energy and things like that. so the, the fact that the 2 countries are big and important does not mean that we can have a same relationship with both of them. certainly what we shall not go along with is the absurd notion that both countries or, or either country in wants to dominate militarily or ideologically,

the rest of the, of the work during the cold warriors. there was an ideology which wanted to be global. communism. it's on but put in his me is not a global ideology. and if she's in thing is not a global ideology. all the chinese want is to be able to continue grow and to resolve their economic problems. and presumably, the same as was, the russians won't say the theory. the only thing in common that the european countries have is to stop being subservient to the united states. well, i mean, going so, and also important issue here gentlemen, let's all be honest. here i'm going to go back to glen. i mean, the cynic in me says the most important european export is his values and that's a cultural that it uses all the time. glenn's argument if i get it right, this is going to be an economic infrastructure. it's going to be trade is going to be prosperity is going to be pulling up the european land mass. you know,

like all boats rising here are the belt road initiative. and there's no politics in that, at least not, you know, on, on the surface. so, i mean, this is a big problem for the europeans in my opinion, because they put these other ideological priorities 1st and nobody's there, no takers. okay. i mean, how does that bring you prosperity? most people will say, go ahead, glen. oh and well obviously the, the ideology has made the, or has contributed to preventing you from diversifying its ties, but otherwise, i would agree that what was said before that, so obviously, you know, well, the rush obviously, the con, 70 hedge, a monic ambition to think less of the size, and i would contend that the china doesn't have that possibility either enough with bell during larger hours in the game. but that being said, the u. s. obviously has communicate a clear hedge, a monic policy. and this is also the problem why it wants to, it will prevent their pains from them or as a 5 year time,

because as long as you have successive reliance on u. s. economy, then they will be able to exert or convert as into political influence. now, but in order for it be in for washington to keep this year being a dependency, it also implies that americans have to push the europeans to not to get anymore. chinese technologies, no more russian energy or weapon systems, no mountain road, no arctic corridor with rush hour, no investment agreement with china, no common banks payment system. because the songs are constantly relying on your, on the u. s. and they can extend except there's already over europe. so a couple of the us dollar and bricks. is that okay? well, i would say written reflections. if i can extend what you were saying there, glen, to damian, here. so at the bridesmaid comes back into mine. is it the washington funds europe, they'll continue. always be a bridesmaid. and then an old maid if we follow glens logic here,

go ahead. damien. well, i think if washington wants to maintain your, your pain inches, it's got to show a bit more lake because you can't tell you can't be turning around and saying, you know, to, to the french. oh, we love you. and then another back door in them on a sub submarine deal. this is not going to work. so i'm not quite sure what again to offer as a citizen, they tried to pressure germany at not string to pipeline that didn't work. what they got left is it really is only nato that i can see so many lists i but even then is jerry barton, rick of appetite to, to resurrect that in, to sort of some seriously serious transatlantic force that's going to position itself with one eye on russia, i guess the one on china, i'm really not sure whether what, what the american strategy will be. because it, donald trump's will pull the rug out from every one on, on this and nothing, nothing to me looks like to replace her to be able to replace that relationship. okay, what the, what i will allow last minute goes to donald here. so what is the fate of nato

which remember, macro made? these made this word, these the said, these words about being naive when the, the greek for our prime minister was, are announcing their buying french arms, where they're buying those arms because of turkey. they're nato ally here. so what is the fate of the, of nato, and all this last minute to you, donald nato, was funded for one specific purpose to contain the alleged aggression of the russians. ah, this aggression has now finished a but bureaucracy. they've got to continue, so they gone, they gone and the every time they have to find a good reason to exist, the striker murray bond who should be dying or, and yet keeps on saying, well, i'm still alive and i don't know exactly why i'm alive. but there you are, i'm in june, you know, give me do the research. she take me do not. so give me the last injection off

morphine. what is weird about this whole situation is that it's not clear. what is it, or how europe is dependent on the united states? because if europe is not faced with a military fracture, then what is it that we need the united states for? i tell you the big think with united states give us our ideas of microsoft, apple, that kind of stuff. but as an idea, not as a thing, the thing is manufactured in china and you know, we get the things we get the never as a cultural impacts to and which we would gone anyway. whether or not we do as them are. so i'm going to jump in here gentlemen, who have run out of time. i have to agree that the americans provide ideas but not very up more and more often. not very good ideas. ok, many thanks them i guess in london and in oslo and thanks dory viewers for watching us here at archy. see you next time. remember crosstalk was

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