welcome to the alec salmon show. were we examined the long term economic consequences of corbett? my check, and i mc steady has been focused on a dramatic acute impact of the pandemic. the collapse in will change in g. d p followed by a storm recovery in many economies and a continuing struggle of many administrations to balance health power that is, was sustaining economic activity. given them mixed results much work to produce better policy outcomes remains to be done. however, to economists on either side of the planet have also been focusing on the longer term human economics of corporate. to day, we examined the work of new zealand economist, dr. richard meet. i'm professor debit bank flora of dartmouth college in the united states with richard me, does a research fellow in economics, oakland, university of technology and pencil economists of cognitive economic insight. he's

brought forward a policy initiative of corporate family loans, which it is. i good. we'll be more beneficial and affordable than short term lee by subsidies. it might be a promising alternative to the chancellor of the exchequer cutting benefits for the poorest people in the land. he's in conversation with alex daughter richard made. thank you so much for joining me in the alex island shore from auckland, in new zealand. and to raj, nice to be dallas, dot to be a lot of the economic analysis of, of the pandemic is focused on the, the acute face, the a shop fallen. what o g d p, the sharp recovery of many countries? but do you think that the longer term affects because the tree of what's called long covered the long debilitating condition that many people are suffering from? i think at some, obviously early days in the sense that we don't know what long kind of it really is going to be looking like longer term. but it's certainly giving us indications that

it can be something that has a very long tail, and it could effect a great proportion of the population, especially the younger part of the population. that's going to have a very enduring economic cost. isn't any similar disease? what has that debilitating effect and the significant quantity that has been measured? it's a some compact but can have, with other conditions. i could speak to my own personal experience in the sense that i had kind of to take some dry, more otherwise known as in my own. i can see for like my life for 11 years and hopefully that results i'm years ago. but when i started fist reading about long of it and the sorts of symptoms that the sufferers long kind of having to put up with, they gave me a rather nasty sense of deja food in time. and maybe think that even this, these conditions and also the integral or not even on the same sort of ballpark long as anything like computation dry as it could have very potentially long consequences for the people who suffer us by which i mean they could be decades of the live suffering serious debilitation,

and even with that seems as long as miserable organ damage and that could lead to premature death. and of course, the numbers that we are being estimated to for long code for those countries which um had a lot rate of infection lightly u. k. for that matter, a, perhaps 10 times those who've been severely affected in the acute phase that i did to get it would, could be a huge economic effect over the long term. i agree, i think you're just running numbers, you'd say a certain number of people die from kind of nets, obviously very bad and that's very costly and something we should be paying very much attention to. but statistically speaking, you can imagine a great many more people in fact might not even go to hospital with coverage, but suffer from the illness and they end up with an enduring illness. and even if not all of that cohort, end up having long covered for very long time, already indications, even from the u. k, we have something like almost 400000 people that have headlong coverage for more

than one year. there's some chance of that's will mean there are people that end up potentially many years, possibly decades if you france of software as a kind of a decent time, for example, as anything to go by. and so if we extrapolate across the rest of the u. k and across the rest of the pandemic. if we extrapolate across the rest of the world, we can see that there's going to be quite a few people in fact, that will be affected by the us and into some proportion of that. or what are they not very unwell for very long time? and let's have a look at the composite of the fact that you're speaking to us from new zealand, a company which famously has gone for an elimination strategy and other countries. i've done the same. hong kong would be an example. many countries in asia, a family successfully to date. it pursued the very low rates of coven, but other countries, a been letting go with effectively spread through the, the community suppression certainly, but not elimination is going to be a competitive effect of those economies, which of successfully eliminated. okay,

cool. with the very low levels and those who on the basis that they could face doesn't seem to be killing too many people have left that spread for the economy. i know the companies which have taken the bag f up to of elimination legal to be the gain of in and the longer town i was certainly high. so speaking from you sit on obviously best. i think there is a genuine issue for the countries that allowed the virus to become more endemic. that even us the mortality right as falling because the vaccination rates are taking off. we should be very mindful of the fact that some is more than one way to create me come on costs from the pandemic and chronic illness if that's debilitating and it's going people from living the normal lives working the normal jobs, etc. that's actually a very costly thing. and so if we think about the i will economic cost of the pandemic, we can think about the human cost and loss of life. and the g p impacts of whatever measure we put in place to try and stop the virus from speeding. but we do need to

be very mindful also of these other enduring possible health consequences. how exactly do you measure the impact to some of the suffering of debilitating illness? again, somebody will have to look and die in a short period of time and speak to it as a qualified economist who devils from time to time and health economics. but i'm not a specialist how the economists say, and someone who strays into their territory. i'd say that there are measures used on things like quality adjusted life years and disability adjusted life years, which measures that economists, health economists around the world news to get a sense of how you can compare different kinds of illnesses. and if you're literally and, and because economists are cold blooded and we don't get invited to parties, we put a dollar value on these things. we, we say that's effectively, you know, losing out of a certain number of life years altogether has a certain price. and so even if people don't lose a life per se,

but they lose the quality just life years because they saw some sort of debilitation, for example, we put a price on that. so, and we need to it because we have to figure out how to ration resources. obviously we need to figure out what's the best way to use the finite results. we have to get the most benefit for society. and if it requires the so called blended assessments, it's just something we have to do with the base we possibly can. we shouldn't shoot the messenger because we have practitioners of the dismal science as simple as. but they put in terms of policy impact. i mean, policy makers will have to make adjustments to the social security policy to, to help at what policy. as a result along, coven are going to be, if we're talking about the numbers, which seems to be the case in those countries, even high vaccinated countries, with large elements of, of long coven being been measured in the population. there's going to be a huge shift in policy to accommodate the, the impact of that. i think that's right. and you're actually pointing to

a whole layer of additional costs that aren't often even factored into these sorts of analyses having some transportation drive. so it's not like they're out there that many actual treatments you might do. and so you could say that it's not very costly. missouri, costly, if the people who don't get the treatment, obviously, but it's not very costly to the system. i'm hopeful, and i'd like to think that's because thrive it is so widespread games this long kind of condition could be such a present issue. we will get some very serious medical research in the same way. we did a kind of research to developing back things. we should be like adding some very serious research and i can show we can come up with some sort of decent answer to fixing on chi robin just leaving it as one of those conditions people have to live with. i don't mean to what we, we had and public health officials, doctors say on the show from new zealand who the faith we've been saying to. ready no one else are you doing in the u. k, but you invented public health policy and it seems to be practicing it is that only

sense? economists to new zealand. i start looking at the u. k. in other come to think, why haven't you analyzing these things and recognizing that the huge potential economic impact as well as human suffering a off what is happening in terms of the spread of us contagion, might strike you as ironic. but i think a lot of the local economic analysis has been rather more critical in that response as much as that's been not, not a bad outcome for us, but the did the implicit price that's been attached to citing a life even use it as is very very high, and so some economists are wondering why we doing this when we could be rushing out resources and otherwise, why don't we shut down our economy and borders for the seasonal flu that kills talking to people a year for example. so it's nice sort of if you're being strictly purely rational about it, you would make these very tough comparisons for the look beyond the way we did us and think about what the various strategies might be around the world and which ones are worked out better than others, i'm sure this is going to spawn great recession,

many years. one of the problems is of course, controlling for all the different factors that are different across each economy. but there are various comparisons that are more anecdotal level. obviously that have been drawn island states, for example, with a greater ability to control the board. has it nice and elimination, strategy more viable and sorry, this is begging the question. if you had a choice between elimination and something, getting things spread out in a slightly controlled way. i'm a basic question. why didn't, i mean, i, sweden, of course, had the other example of going for a hate immunity strategy from the outside and in some traded, assigned sort of natural experiments. so we get to say, i think where the jury lands on this, you know, it's quite clear the human cost in many countries has been very, very high. the u. s. in ukiah. that particular examples, obviously the new zealand, australia, the human cost hasn't been that high. you could, i get the economic cost has been quite high all the same. and i think it is

difficult for politicians if they are faced with the choice of prioritizing the economy either lives. you can say, see how is natural to no want to me that the politicians that presided, i've a lot of people dying. that seems that isn't a real good. eventually she did. and finally known to me. any message you would have a 0 in the economist for policy makers, a a close to what old and tammy? of how they should address the issue of, of long coven from a policy point of view. i think to bottom lines are one, we should be more rigorous about doing a cost benefit analysis. so this is we have policy making, wilson, he's in the u. k. or elsewhere, i think a lot of it hasn't been strictly based on these sorts of, you know, quite ruthless but, but systematic assessments of what might be the best way forward for society at large. for the 1st, you know, listen as please leave us through that with. and then the 2nd lesson is when we do that work place on just focus on mortality. we need to focus on the mobility side

of things as well. but the extra health been an ongoing and additional social impacts of ongoing illness that could be affecting a very large chunk of populations. doctor mentioned made from auckland, new zealand. thank you so much for joining me on alex, i'm and show. thank you're much coming up path to the break. alex continues discussions on economic consequences of corporate in the longer term. china say mm hm. oh, the way of life of reindeer herders leading a traditionally nomadic lifestyle in the tundra is similar to a parallel reality. i while the main drive, the hood, women carry the weight of the household work on their shoulders,

run with full stress. when also last, she'd now this with, however, in the vast expanse of russia, there is a spot where a housewife could secure regular employment started. it's in the fall semester. i'm with a wrong one. i just don't know. i mean you well yes to shape out disdain becomes the african and engagement equals the trail. when so many find themselves worlds apart, we choose to look for common ground. well

come back as a member of the monetary policy committee of the bank of england professor david bind flora was one of the 1st economists to recognize that it inadequate and orthodox response to the war banking crisis, rest prolonging the economic mercy for millions over many years so it proved now he's focusing on the human economic impact of corbett, particularly and united states. he explains this latest work for alex, professor david blanche, for a thank you so much for joining me once again on the alex allen, show. cause great to see you again. now, we've already seen there the acute m patman to telson and macroeconomic terms. what thus far has been the, the impact of covered in the, the world economy. the unemployment rate in the united states went from 3 and a half percent to 20 percent in 6 weeks. so we never seen anything that hit as

quickly as this. and the 3030, a huge in the world. and then this and then this thing and a spread and continue and had a big effect on the colonies, central madison, cisco artist, etc. but now we're in a recovery, and that recovery phase is difficult. it's hard to see what you take away all the stimulus, but this is unprecedented in terms of t. chris, as well as we speak. so then recovery from it is difficult and we're still trying to recover. and it's going to take a really long time because we don't really have much of an historical record. well, let's compare the leap impact to micro terms were they were the of the pandemic with the, the great recession of starting in 201011. now that the structural aspects of the banking system,

this hasn't done that. does that mean that if the co wrecked and perhaps the more an orthodox more challenging economic policies are considered, it should actually be possible and macroeconomic terms to recover quicker from this shock than it was from the banking shock. well, i'll see who is the major banking shopping that impacted globally, but actually what it didn't do, it didn't stop people from walking about when i talked about economics of walking about good a. because we know full in times square in new york city. well, for a very long time, nobody was, wo, 5 even today it's about 50 percent of what it was before. so we didn't have anything like that. we didn't have people not go into restaurants, not going to shops, not going to do. so it had a real effect on people. i think people didn't stay at home. i mean,

how do you hear people say not why not taking bus is not taking training. so that that and it was a major problem and we'll see what happens. restaurants close, sam we fall in london where people used to get tory station, the meeting, and then they go to office. well no one's been going for a very long time. so. so in a sense, the question is, when this thing goes away with all those phones that are closed will will they be stolen? so i will be going back to the way they were before. so i think that's what difference in many said people didn't go back to the way they were, all in 2011 and 12. the question now is in the future, are you going to under suspicion? is they all, i mean, the stores closed. they didn't leave factors close to close in 2009. they have now the question down the road. will a reopen?

will people do things differently than they did before? and i think that's the big difference. i think the likely this time around long changes in behavior will be very different than the pre. and that didn't happen. but let's look at the human side of recovery at the long term human effects and economics me. the 1st of these is very much related to the, the disease. i mean, just what we, we thought the vaccines were coming to the rescue of the, of least a highly vaccinated economy is a long come millions and along comes long covent, which seems to be affecting substantially more people even than what affected in the most acute a part of the, of the vice, what was the economic effect of having a substantial sexual to population were for a long term debilitating. it was a story in many ways to play the story about m e, which is that we don't exactly know what the consequences are. how long this thing

will go if someone has got long coded, like they say they struggle to go back to work. and firms that i've been hearing on construction crew. they can't get the crew come back because people are suffering along on research. if you live from cobra, this is, this is a, this is a problem for us. we don't do about the likelihood is that it will have economic impacts people. if people have any ability, they're not going to be able to go back to work in the way that they, they were able to, after the great respect is willing and able to work. but they're not actively capable of it. maybe what it will mean is that many people, they stay at home and do work remotely, but a lot of it with her in school. so the, the consequence that means we have to think out of that all. and to suggest that we can somebody just go back to a world december 19th, december 20, 20 doesn't look right. and it means that recoveries be complicated. a law. and

how about the what you've been doing with, with colleagues on monitoring distress? anxiety. now, obviously, piece of economic uncertainty make people feel anxious, and that's well established. but this pandemic must of have a long term effect on anxiety as well as the immediate effect of people waiting for them. going to catch it, whether they're going to to be severely l or die. well, to answer to that, the 1st one in the u. k. we have really good days. all happens. we had a giant dropping happiness in march 2020 in the phone that we've never seen. but i don't want to work in the united states and what you see there. 2 interesting things, anxiety and depression of worry, has risen dramatically. it actually piece in united states in the week of the election and it's actually diminished somewhat in there. so i'm particularly worry

was true of the people voted by him, but i think was a know to it, which is actually the, you know, i hadn't understood a biting code in mental health in america. and the answer is actually hungry quite on the young, disproportionately of the ones that are actually and they're, the ones disproportionately been anxious and worried about the effect of their ability. joe, to make a step on the will. so anxiety, depression, worry, lack of happiness. we've never seen levels like in the u. k. we've never seen a drop in happiness at the time that we saw in march 2020 it's recovery. but again, go back to where we would go back to 2228. what was interesting is what happened is how he fell at all between 20182000 not. so you ask the macro column, is the happiness research? what does it mean and where are we going?

i really don't know. and anyone who says they do a president mushy policy committee member who says they have a clue what's coming and just engaging with who you're likely. yes or no me. you have a you learn the pioneer of walk about economics. ok. so what do you have got tell you what, what, what do your students tell you about how this anxiety is going to affect them, say, economic participants and society? well, another them tell me the, the stress of my students is a number of the friends tell me the jobs in restaurants in fast food houses. the students traditionally do become pretty bad jobs. people, you know, they don't like that particular job. so i think a re evaluation of a low h o m, we seen the price was rising, but i think i think this great on certainty, and especially for the younger,

this is the, you know, if you're not alone, if you are a 1000000 people, the firm isn't hiring the young people that come up that come out to come out of school and college. so i think what people are telling me is this thing is a lot of adjustments to come. i mean, i'm about to start teaching. we still are going to be teaching a classroom and i have the story i have is that the people are back and they only 5 people in the class. it was about a 30 percent like that. somebody will back with somebody in the class is still so here is, what are you going to do? are you going to go to the office or you know what, what are you going to do? so i think the moment implications, other people are wiring it, especially be young. and in the united states, in the southern states, this is the big worry. so we, we see a coming the world is now go to people don't recall because it, tories and leg,

we've got the facts and they didn't the own back. and we've never seen anything like that. famously, you of the, the lord and voice of the monetary policy committee of the bank of england who warden that with i would about adventurous attempt to recover 10 and 12 years ago it would have a long term impact on the economy. and that's what transpired, what message would you have to policy makers know as the approach the even more complicated question of how you ensure to cover. great, great is the president in 9031 came with he warned about a long dragging condition. and he said it's all about crack itself. it's about what follows, and the questions are you going to make it or not? so i think the answer is looking for in the to think out of the ball. you can go back to the old method. you can't go back

a really good idea. let's get people out there, all the people who are going to take a long time to recover. mean people to try address the real problems. and i like the idea address the real problems of the model on the my road. all the reason i am i wrote it was a mile. so it was about, let's see, you know, i think about a month and trying to think about there will be rather than get also. and that's what happened. the last thing we need is what we need to small people coming up with. i think you don't, what are the consequences? the consequences are going to be very serious on ordinary people. and that's the kind of a night. but it's even worse now because health and economics i'm

supposed to get in trouble. i'm straight on straight on that this is professor they would bunch for college. thank you so much for joining me again on the alex, i'm and sure. yes her in the long run were all dead. is a famous lane from england's most celebrated economist john maynard keynes kings did not mean as is often assumed that we should disregard the future in terms of economic policy. he was either iving that we should not assume that shocked to the economic systems will automatically rate themselves once the initial storm is over . and so it is with corporate 19, a whole new branch of economics is developing around the impact of long cove it. while earliest that is of the pandemic focused on the immediate collapse of well g, d, p, and the medium term impact on jobs. it's now becoming realized that the biggest

economic impact of all may not be on the day. so 5000000 people, but the long term debilitation of tens of millions more long after the chip pandemic feeds into memory. and the many immediate winds heal human and therefore the economic scars will remain. and this goes beyond the recovery impact on the public finances. with creative rather than orthodox economic policies, it should be possible to refill the coffers of government and to planning the public services. however, the economics of human impact will still endure. long covered is likely to physically impact on a substantial section of the community. and therefore, the workforce, perhaps, for years to come, the economic impact of grief, depression, and anxiety is difficult to measure. but it is very real in economic terms

call, it is likely to be ever with us. but for now, you from alex, myself, and all it was sure it stays safe. take here, i'm hope to see you all again next week. ah ah, imagine picking up a future textbook on the early years of the 21st century. what are the chapters called gun violence school shootings, homelessness. first, it was my job and then it was my family. didn't was my siblings. i have nothing. i

have nothing and it's not like i don't trust. i look for resources, i look for jobs. i look for everything i can to make this pass and i end up doing is passing the road to the american dream, paved with dead refugees. at this very idealized image of the older america, native americans look past the deaths that happen every single day. this is a modem, history of the usa by america on our t policy makers in the federal reserve bank and joe biden. the present, thanks. america is so freaking stupid that they can make them believe that picking up a worthless shiny round object. and going hocus pocus over it magically turns it into a trillion dollars that they can deposit at the, at the federal reserve or the treasury to somehow mitigate that $300000000.00 debt

crisis. ah ah, pet lies for this hour here on our t europeans brace for soaring, wind tug gas bills. all rushers president says record price is a partially down to failed to policies in the e. you try to smear harry as domestic handling just swiss francs. just heard, hone all going us parents face and f. b. i crack down for speaking out against mosque wearing. and that of critical race theory also in the program in new york ethics commission probes.