responded it spokesperson dmitri pess. cobb said that basically any attempt at improving relations at this point is basically a pipe dream. so all of these actions, of course, do not allow us to have any illusions about the possibility of normalizing relations or resuming dialogue with nato. on the contrary, these prospects are almost completely undermined. now, russia's foreign minister a sergei laugh. rob did have a talk with stolen berg about convening the nato, russia council for talks, but so far nothing's been agreed on. so we're gonna have to see how relations go from here. thanks dan. r t correspondent donald quarter. right, we're checking in with the former 1st minister of scotland next and other slice of the alex um and show gets going in moment. stay close. aah

oh well come to the alec salmon. sure we're, we examined the long term economic consequences of corbett. my check nomic study has been focused on a dramatic acute impact of the pandemic. the collapse and we'll trade in g, d, p, followed by a storm recovery in many economies and a continuing struggle of many administrations to balance health priorities was sustaining economic activity. given them mixed results much work to produce better policy outcomes remains to be done. however, 2 economists on either side of the planets have also been focusing on the longer term human economics of corporate. today,

we examine the work of new zealand economist dr. richard meet. i, professor, debit bank flora of dartmouth college in the united states is this richard me as a research fellow and economics at auckland university of technology and principal economist of cognitive economic insight. he's brought forward a policy initiative of corporate family loans, which is as i viewed, will be more beneficial and affordable than short term lee by subsidies. it might be a promising alternative to the chancellor of the exchequer cutting benefits for the poorest people in the land. he's in conversation with alex dr. richard made. thank you so much for joining me on the alex island shore from auckland, new zealand as a raj nicely. alice not to be a lot of the economic analysis of, of the pandemic is focused on the, the acute face, the, the shot fallen. what o g d p, the shot recovery in many countries?

but do you think that the longer term affects be constantly of what's called long cova, the long debilitating condition that many people are suffering from? i think it's um, obviously early days in the sense that we don't yet know what long harvard really is going to be looking like longer term. but certainly giving us indications that it could be something that has a very long tail, and it could effect a great proportion of the population, especially younger, hostile to population. and it's going to have a very enduring economic costs. is there any similar disease has that debilitating effect and the significant quantity that has been measured, it's a some compact but can have with other conditions. i could speak to my own personal experience in the sense that i had kind of to take some dry, more otherwise known as m e o. miles i can see if a lot of my lightest for 11 years and hopefully that results i'm years ago. but when i started this reading about long covered and the sorts of symptoms that the sufferers long kind of having to put up with their, gave me

a rather nasty sense of deja in time. and maybe think that even this, these conditions and also the integral or not even on the same sort of ball park long as anything like transportation drive as it could have very potentially long consequences for the people who suffer us. which i mean, they could be decades of the live suffering, serious debilitation. and even with it seems as long as this miserable organ damage . and that could lead to pain at your desk. and of course, the numbers that we are being estimated for long code for those countries, which i'm had a lot, 3 of infection lightly u. k. for that matter, i perhaps 10 times those who've been severely affected in the acute phase that i did to get it would, could be a huge economic effect over the long term. i agree, i think you're just running numbers, you'd say a certain number of people die from kind of nets, obviously very bad and that's very costly and something we should be paying very

much attention to. but statistically speaking, you can imagine a great many more people in fact might not even go to hospital with coverage on, but suffer from the illness and they end up with an enduring illness. and even if not all of that cohort, end up having long covered for very long time, already indications, even from the u. k, we have something like almost 400000 people that have headlong coverage for more than one year. there's some chance of that will mean there are people that end up potentially many years, possibly decades. if you, france suffer as a kind of a taste in time, for example, is anything to go by. and so if we extrapolate across the rest of the u. k, and across the rest of the pandemic. if we have strep or light across the rest of the world, we can see that there's going to be quite a few people, in fact, that will be affected by the us and, and some proportion of that are what contained out very unwell for very long time. and let's have a look at the composite of a fat speaking to us from new zealand with a company which famously has gone for an elimination strategy and other countries.

i've done the same. hong kong would be an example. many countries in asia, a fairly successfully to date, it pursued that very low rates of covered by other countries, a been letting go with effectively spread through the, the community suppression certainly, but not elimination is going to be a competitive effect of those economies switch of successfully eliminated cobit to very low levels and those who on the basis that the acute phase doesn't seem to be killing too many people have left that spread for the economy. i know the companies which have taken the bag effort to have elimination legal to be the gamers. in the, in the long to tell us, i think we're certainly hypes, i'm speaking from use it and obviously best, i think there is a genuine issue for the countries that allowed the virus to become more endemic. that even us the mortality right as falling because the vaccination rates are taking off. we should be very mindful of the fact that some is more than one way to create an economic costs from the pandemic and chronic illness if that's

debilitating and it's starting people from living, the normal lives working the normal jobs, etc. that's actually a very costly thing. and so, if we think about that, i will, economic cost of the pandemic. we can think about the human cost and loss of life. and the g p impacts of whatever measures put in place to try and stop the virus from speeding. but we do need to be very mindful also of these other enduring possible health consequences. hey, how exactly do you measure the impact the sunday suffering of debilitating illness against somebody welfare thank to live and die in a short period of time and speak to it as a qualified economist who devils from time to time and health economics. but i'm not a specialist health economist and someone who strays into their territory outside of their majors used on things like quality adjusted life years and disability adjusted life years, which measures that economists, health economists around the world news to get a sense of how you can compare different kinds of illnesses and if you're literally

and, and because economists are cold blooded and we don't get invited to parties, we put a dollar value on these things. we, we say that's effectively losing a certain number of life years altogether has a certain price. and so even if people don't lose a life per se, but they lose the quality adjusted life years because they saw some sort of debilitation, for example, we put a price on that. so, and we only do it because we have to figure out how to ration resources. obviously we need to figure out what's the best way to use the finite results. we have to get the most benefit for society. and if it requires a cold blooded assessments, it's just something we have to do with the base we possibly can. we shouldn't shoot the messenger because we have practitioners of the decimal science, i suppose. but they put it in terms of policy impact. i mean, policy makers will have to make adjustments to the social security policy to, to help at what policy. as a result along, coven are going to be,

if we're talking about the numbers, which seems to be the case in those countries, even high vaccinated countries, with large element of, of long coven being been measured in the population. there's going to be a huge shift and policy to accommodate the, the impact of that. i think that's right. and you're actually pointing to a whole layer of additional costs that aren't often even factored into these sorts of analyses. heading south accreditation, dr. it's not like that many actual treatments you might do. and so you could say that it's not very costly. it's very costly if the people who don't get the treatment, obviously, but it's not very costly to the system. i'm hopeful that i would like to think that's because of it is so widespread in this long kind of condition could be such a present issue. we will get some very serious medical research in the same way. we did a kind of research to developing back things we should be doing, cutting some very serious research and i can show we can come up with some sort of decent answer to fixing on chi robin just leaving us. one of those conditions

people have to live with. i don't mean to what we, we had and public health officials and doctors say on the show from new zealand who the fact to have been saying to. ready you know, what else are you doing in the u. k, but you invented public health policy and you don't seem to be practicing it. is that any sense? economists to new zealand? i start looking at the you can other come to think. why haven't you analyzing these things and recognizing that the huge potential economic impact as well as human suffering a off what is happening in terms of the spread of us contagion might strike you as ironic. but i think a lot of the local economic analysis has been rather more critical in that response as much as that's been not, not a bad outcome for us, but the did the implicit price that's been attached to citing a life even use it as is very very high and so some economists are wondering why are we doing this and we can be rationing out resources and otherwise, why don't we shut down our economy and borders for the seasonal flu that kills

talking to people a year for example. so it's nice sort of if you're being strictly purely rational about it, you would make these very tough comparisons to the look beyond the way we did us and think about what the various strategies might be around the world and which ones worked out better than others. i'm sure this is going to spawn great research for many years. one of the problems is of course, controlling for all the different factors that are different across each economy. but there are various comparisons that are more anecdotal level. obviously that have been drawn island states, for example, with a greater ability to control the board is that nice and elimination, strategy more viable and sorry, this is begging the question. if you had a choice between elimination and something, getting things spread out in a slightly controlled way, then it begs the question why didn't? so when i, sweden, of course, had the other example of going for a hayden unity strategy from the outside and names on traded, assigned sort of natural experiments. so we get to say,

i think where the jury lands on this, you know, it's quite clear the human cost in many countries has been very, very high. the u. s. in ukiah, particular examples. obviously the new zealand, australia, the human cost hasn't been that high. you could, i get the economic cost has been quite iowa same. and i think it is difficult for politicians if they faced with the choice of prioritizing the economy either lives . you can say, see how it's natural to no want to me that the politicians that decided i've a lot of people dying. it seems that that isn't a real good. eventually, she did. and finally, known to me, any message that you would have as a zealand economist for policy makers, a, a cost to weldon thomas of how they should address the issue of, of long coven from a policy point of view. i think 2 bottom lines are one. we should be more rigorous about doing a cost benefit analysis. so this is we have policy making. we, there's,

and he's in the u. k or elsewhere. i think a lot of it hasn't been strictly based on the sorts of, you know, quite ruthless but, but systematic assessments of what might be the best way forward for society at large for the 50 i listen as placed us through that with. and then the 2nd lesson is when we do that work place, i just focus on mortality. we need to focus on the mobility side of things as well, but the extra help bit and an ongoing and additional social impacts of ongoing illness that could be affecting a very large chunk of populations. dr. lynch had made from auckland new zealand. thank you so much for joining me and alex simon show. jeff, thanks so much. coming up as to the break. alex continues discussions on economic consequences of corporate in the longer term. china say ah, so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy

confrontation, let it be in arms. race is on, often has very dramatic development only personally and getting to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very critical of time. time to sit down and talk these are the 4 people who pulled the trigger after 5, something and survival. one other harness things that i had to face was not having a face adult expectation to life. i accepted accept the fact that i'm about. it's one we had no fears. general change prefers for shots. different stories behind the bullets. welcome back. as a member of the monetary policy committee of the bank of england professor david

bind flora was one of the 1st economists to recognize that the inadequate and orthodox response to the world banking crisis rest prolonging the economic mercy for millions over many years. so it proved now he's focusing on the human economic impact of corbett, particularly and united states. he explains this latest work to alex, professor david blanche, for a thank you so much for joining me. once again, i'm the alex island, ju, this note with what i me seen there, the acute impact into telson and macro economic terms. what thus far has been the, the impact of covered in the, the world economy. the unemployment rate in the united states went from 3 and a half percent to 20 percent in 6 weeks. so we've never seen anything that as quickly as this and in the clear. but i was a 30, a huge to the world. and then, and then this thing and

a spread and continue and had a big effect on the colonies, central madison, physical artist team. but now we're in a recovery. and that recovery phase is difficult. it's hard to see what you take away all the stimulus, but this is unprecedented in terms of the press, as well as the speed. so then recovery from it is difficult and we're still trying to recover and it's going to take a really long time. but we don't really have much of an historical record. well, let's compare the leap impact to micro terms were they were the of the pandemic with the, the great recession of starting in 201011. that the structural aspects of the banking system. this hasn't done that, does that mean that if the correct and perhaps the more an orthodox more

challenging economic policies are considered, it should actually be possible and macroeconomic terms to recover quicker from this shock than it was from the banking shock. well, obviously that was the major banking shopping that impacted globally. but actually what it didn't do, it didn't stop people from walking about. and i've talked about economics that will good. and we, we know about full full time prime square in new york city for a very long time. nobody was walking out to today. it's about 50 percent of what it was before. so we didn't have anything like that. we didn't have people not go into restaurants, not going to shops, not going to cinemas. so it had a real effect on people. i think people didn't stay at home. i mean, how you hear people say not fine, not taking, but it's not taking training. so that, that it was

a major problem and then we'll see what happens. restaurants close. sam, we fall in london where people used to get tory station, the meeting, and then they go to office. well know what's been going for a very long time. so in a sense, the question is, where this thing goes away with all those phones that are closed? well will they be stolen? so i will be going back to the way they were before. so i think that's what difference in many people did go back to the way they were all in 20101112. the question now is in the future, are you going to suspicion? is they all? i mean, the stores closed, they will be factors that close to close in 2009 they have now the question down the road, will a reopen? will people do things differently than they did before? and i think that the big difference, i think the life of this long change in behavior will be very different than they

were. and that didn't happen. but let's look at the human side of recovery at the long term human effects and economics. the 1st of these is very much related to the, the disease. i mean, just what we, we thought the vaccines were coming to the rescue of the, of least a highly vaccinated economy is a long come variance. and along comes along, covent, which seems to be affecting substantial, more people even than what affected and the most acute a part of the, of the vice. what was the economic effect of having a substantial section of the population for a long time debilitating. it was the story in many ways to play the story about m e, which is that we don't exactly know what the consequences how long this thing will go if someone is got long coded, like they say they struggle to go back to work and found that i've been here in

a construction crew. they come to the crew, come back because people are suffering along research if you life for this is, this is, this is a problem for us. we don't want to do about the likelihood is that it will have economic impacts people if people have the ability, they're not going to be able to go back to work in the way that they were able to, after the great recession, willing and able to work but they're not actively capable of it. maybe what it will mean is that many people, they only do work remotely, but a lot of it with a very cool. so the, the consequence that means we have to think out of all and to suggest that we can somebody just go back to december 19th to december. 2020 doesn't look right. and it means that recovery is pretty complicated. the law and how about the, what you've been doing with,

with colleagues on monitoring the stress anxiety. now obviously, piece of economic uncertainty make people feel anxious, and that's well established. this pandemic must have a long term effect 'till anxiety as well as the immediate effect to people waiting for. they're going to catch it. well the going to to be severely l or die well to that, the 1st one in the u. k. we have really good things will happen. we have a giant dropping happiness in march 2020 in the phone that we've never seen. but i don't want to work in the united states and what you see there to interesting things, anxiety and depression, of worry as reason, dramatically actually, p, united states in the week of the election. and there's actually diminished somewhat in there. so i'm particularly worried was true people voted for buying, but i think there's a know to it, which is actually the, you know,

i hadn't understood that. i wrote biting coding and mental health in america. and the answer is actually hungry. quite understood, young disproportionately of the ones that are actually and they're, the ones disproportionately been anxious and worried about the effects of their ability to go to make a step on to the, into the will. so anxiety, depression, worry, lack of happiness. we've never seen levels like this in the u. k. we've never seen a drop in happiness to find that we saw in march 2020 it's recovery. but again, go back to where we would go back to 20 to 28. what was interesting is that happen is how they fell at all between 2008 in 2009. so you ask the macro column is the happiness research it? what does it mean and where are we going? i really don't know. and anyone who says a president mushy policy committee member says they are clue what's coming. and

just in case you would like to live exactly. yes or no me. you have a, you live the pioneer of walk about economic job. so what do you have got, tell you what, what, what do your students tell you about how this anxiety is going to affect them? economic participants in society? well, another than tell me the, the stress of my students is a number of the friends tell, tell me the jobs in restaurants and fast food houses. the students traditionally do become pretty bad jobs people, you know, they don't like that particular job. so i think a re evaluation of a low, a joe and we know the price was rising, but i think i think this great and especially for the young, this is the, you know, if you're a 1000000 people,

the phone isn't higher and the young people that come up that come out since they come out of school college. so i think what people are telling me is this thing is a lot of adjustments that i'm about teaching. we still are not going to be teaching the classroom and i have the story. i have is that the people vaccinated only 5 people in the class. it was about 30 percent like, somebody will have that is that like somebody in the class is still. so here is, what are you going to do? are you going to go to the office or you know, what, what are you going to do? so i think the only implications other people are wiring it, especially be young. and in the united states, in the southern states, this is a big worry. so we, we seen a decline coming the world. now go to a tories in lake, we go back to and back and we've never seen anything like that. famously, you will,

the, the lord and voice on the monetary policy committee of the bank of england, who warned that with i would adventurous attempt to recover 10 and 12 years ago, it would have a long term impact to the economy. and that's what transpired, what message would you have to policy makers know, as they approach these even more complicated question of how you insure to cover. great, great i do is a president in 9031 came with he won't about long dragging conditions. and he said it's not a crack itself, it's about what follows. and the quest is j a not. so i think the answer is looking forward in need to think out of the ball. you can go back to the old method. you can't go back a good idea. let's get people know the people who are going to take

a long time to recover me. you've got to try address the real problems. and i like the idea address the real problems of the model and on the my road on my mind road, it was a model. so it was about this, let's figure out, find the city, let's think about it will be a road in london and trying to think about there will be rather than get to also see what happened. the last thing we need is what we need to small people coming up with me. and if you don't, what are the consequences? the consequences are going to be very serious on ordinary people. and that's the kind of a night. but it's even worse now, because health and economics i'm supposed to get in trouble. i'm straight on straight on that. this is huge to professor david blanche rove of that was college

. thank you so much for joining me again on the alex armand. sure. yes, sir. in the long run, we're all debt is a famous lane from england's most celebrated economist john maynard keynes kings did not mean as is often assumed that we should disregard the future in terms of economic policy. he was either iving that we should not assume that shocked to the economic systems will automatically rate themselves once the initial storm is over . and so it is with corporate. 19, a whole new branch of economics is developing. i rang the impact of long cove it while earliest that is of the pandemic focused on the immediate collapse of well g, d, p, and the medium term impact on jobs. it's now becoming realized that the biggest economic impact of all may not be on the death of 5000000 people. but the long term

debilitation of tens of millions more long after the chip pandemic feeds into memory. and the many immediate winds he'll human and therefore the economic scars will remain. and this goes beyond the recovery impact on the public finances with creative rather than orthodox economic policies. it should be possible to refill the coffers of government and to planning the public services. however, the economics of human impact will still endure long covered is likely to physically impact on a substantial section of the community. and therefore, the workforce, perhaps, for years to come. the economic impact of grief, depression, and anxiety is difficult to measure, but it is very real in economic times. corvette is likely to be ever

with us. but for now, you from alex, myself, and all at the shoe it stay safe, take care. i'm hope to see you all again next week. ah ah ah, when our troops seemed wrong, when all 3, just don't make any new world, just to shape out. disdain becomes the attitude, and engagement equals the trail. when so many find themselves worlds

apart, we choose to look for common ground. ah latimer approach is pledge to boost the gas flow to europe. take some of the heat out of the market. that comes after record breaking cry surges this week, which i've seen some you members question brussels energy policy. also ahead on the program today to try to smear parents as domestic terrorism just reflects just how tone death, school boards in school administrators become american parents face an f. b. i crock. done for speaking out against pupils being forced to wear masks on the

teaching of the controversial critical.