and i end up doing is passing on the road to the american dream paved with dead refugees. it's this very idealized image. all those older america makes americans look past the deaths that happen every single day. this is a modem. history of the usa, my america on our t ah . mm . welcome to the alex salmon you were we examined the long term economic consequences of corporate. much economic study has been focused on a dramatic acute impact of the pandemic. the collapse in will change in g d, p,

followed by a storm recovery in many economies, and a continuing struggle of many administrations to balance health priorities with sustaining economic activity. given them mixed results much work to produce better policy outcomes remains to be done. however, 2 economists on either side of the planet have also been focusing on the longer term human economics of corporate. to day, we examined the work of new zealand economist, dr. richard, meet. i, professor, debit bank flora of dartmouth college in the united state with richard me as a research fellow in economics, the oakland university of technology and principal economists of cognitive economic insight. he's bought forward a policy initiative of corporate family loans, which is as i did, will be more beneficial and affordable than short term lee by subsidies. it might be a promising alternative to the chancellor of the exchequer cutting benefits for the poorest people in the land. he's in conversation with alex dalton,

rich have been thank you so much for joining me. in the alex island shore from auckland, in new zealand. and to raj, nice to meet alice dotted. a lot of the economic analysis of, of the pandemic is focused on the, the acute face, the, the sharp fallen. what o g d p, the shot recovery in many countries? but do you think that the longer term effects be concentrate of what's called long over the long debilitating condition that many people are suffering from? i think it's obviously early days in the sense that we don't know what long kind of it really is going to be looking like longer term. but it certainly giving us indications that it can be something that has a very long tail, and it could effect a great proportion of the population, especially the younger part of the population. that's going to have a very enduring economic cost. is there any similar disease? what has that debilitating effect and the significant quantity that has been

measured? it's a, some compatible can have with other conditions. i could speak to my own personal experience in the sense that i had kind of to take some drawing more otherwise known as m e. o. miles, i can see from my lightest for 11 years and hopefully that results i'm years ago. but when i started fist reading about long of it and the sorts of symptoms that the suffers of long kind of having to put up with, they gave me a rather nasty sense of deja food in time. and maybe think that even this, these conditions and also typical or not even on the same sort of ball park long as anything like trying to take some dry as it could have very potentially long consequences for the people who suffer us. which i mean, they could be decades of the live suffering, serious debilitation. and even with that seems as long as miserable organ damage. and that could lead to print your death. and of course, the numbers that we are being estimated for long code for those countries which um had a lot rate of infection lightly u. k. for that matter, a,

perhaps 10 times those who've been severely affected in the acute phase that i did to get it would, could be a huge economic effect over the long term. i agree, i think you're just running numbers, you'd say a certain number of people die from kind of nets, obviously very bad and that's very costly and something we should be paying very much attention to. but statistically speaking, you can imagine a great many more people in fact might not even go to hospital with coverage on, but suffer from the illness and they end up with an enduring illness. and even if not all of that cohort, end up having long covered for very long time, already indications, even from the u. k, we have something like almost 400000 people that have headlong coverage for more than one year. there's some chance of that's will mean there are people that end up potentially many years, possibly decades if you screen says suffer as a kind of a decent time, for example, is anything to go by. and so if we extrapolate across the rest of the u. k and

across the rest of the pandemic. if we extrapolate across the rest of the world, we can see that there's going to be quite a few people in fact, that will be affected by the us and into some proportion of that. or what are they not very unwell for very long time? and let's have a look at the composite of a fat speaking to us from new zealand with a company which famously is gone for an elimination strategy and other countries. i've done the same. hong kong would be an example. many countries in asia, a family successfully to date. it pursued that very low rates of coven, but other countries of been letting go with effectively spread through the, the community suppression certainly, but not elimination is going to be a competitive effect of those economies switch of successfully eliminated. okay, cool. with the very low levels and those who on the basis that they could phase doesn't seem to be killing too many people have left that spread for the economy. i know the companies which have taken the, the bag of elimination legal to be the gamers in the,

in the long to town. i think we're certainly hypes, i'm speaking from you, sit on obviously best. i think there is a genuine issue for the countries that allowed the virus to become more endemic. that even us the mortality right as falling because the vaccination rates are taking off. we should be very mindful of the fact that some is more than one way to create me come on costs from the endemic and chronic illness. if that's debilitating and it's going people from living the normal lives working the normal jobs, etc. that's actually a very costly thing. and so if we think about that i will, economic cost of the pandemic. we can think about the human cost and loss of life. and the g p impacts of whatever measure we put in place to try and stop the virus from speeding. but we do need to be very mindful side of these other enduring possible health consequences. hey, how exactly do you measure the impact the sunday suffering of debilitating illness? again, somebody welcome thank to look at dice in

a short period of time and speak to it as a, as a qualified economist who devils from time to time and health economics. but i'm not a specialist health economist. so if someone who strays into their territory outside of their majors used on things like quality adjusted life years and disability adjusted life years, which measures that economist health economists around the world news to get a sense of how you can compare different kinds of illnesses and if you're literally and, and because economists are cold blooded and we don't get invited to parties, we put a dollar value on these things. we, we say that's effectively losing a certain number of life years altogether has a certain price in even if people don't lose a life per se, but they lose the quality adjusted life years because they saw some sort of debilitation. for example, we put a price on that so, and we only do it because we have to figure out how to ration resources. obviously we need to figure out what's the best way to use the finite results. we have to get the most benefit for society and if it requires these sorts of called blended

assessments, it's just something we have to do with the base we possibly can. we shouldn't shoot the messenger because we have practitioners of the decimal science as simple as. but they put it in terms of policy impact. i mean, policy makers will have to make adjustments to social security policy to, to help at what policy. as a result along coven, they're going to be, if we're talking about the numbers, which seems to be the case in those countries, even high vaccinated countries, with a large element of, of long coven being been measured in the population. there's going to be a huge shift and policy to accommodate the, the impact of that. i think that's right. and you're actually pointing to a whole layer of additional costs that aren't often even factored into these sorts of analyses. having some accreditation, dr. it's not like that many actual treatments you might do. and so you could say that it's not very costly. it's very costly if the people who don't get the

treatment, obviously, but it's not very costly to the system. i'm hopeful that like to think that's because of it is so widespread in this long kind of condition could be such a pricing issue. we will get some very serious medical research in the same way. we did a kind of research to developing back things. we should be doing cutting some very serious research and i can show we can talk with some sort of decent answer to fixing on kind of i'd, rather than just leaving it as one of those conditions people have to live with. i don't mean to what we, we had and public health officials and doctors say on the show from new zealand who the faith was being saying to. ready you know, what else are you doing in the u. k, but you invented public health policy and you don't seem to be practicing it. is that any sense? economists to new zealand? i start looking at the you can other come to think. why haven't you analyzing these things and recognizing that the huge potential economic impact as well as human suffering a off what is happening in terms of the spread of us contagion might strike you as

ironic. but i think a lot of the local economic analysis has been rather more critical in that response as much as that's been not, not a bad outcome for us, but the did the implicit price that's been attached to citing a life even use it as is very very high and so some economists are wondering why we doing this and we can be rationing out resources and otherwise, why don't we shut down our economy and borders for the seasonal flu that kills talking to people a year for example. so it's nice sort of if you're being strictly purely rational about it, you would make these very tough comparisons to the look beyond the way we did us and think about what the various strategies might be around the world and which ones worked out better than others. i'm sure this is going to spawn great research for many years. one of the problems is of course, controlling for all the different factors that are different across each economy. but there are various comparisons that are more anecdotal level. obviously that have been drawn island states, for example, with a greater ability to control the board is that nice and elimination,

strategy more viable and sorry, this is being the question. if you had a choice between elimination and something, getting things spread out in a slightly controlled way, then it begs the question why didn't? so when i, sweden, of course, had the other example of going for a hayden unity strategy from the outside and games on trader design sort of natural experiments. so we get to say, i think where the jury lands on this, you know, it's quite clear the human cost in many countries has been very, very high. the u. s. in ukiah. that particular examples, obviously the new zealand, australia, the human cost hasn't been that high. you could, i get the economic cost has been quite iowa same. and i think it is difficult for politicians if they are faced with the choice of prioritizing the economy either lives, you can say, see how it's natural to no want to me that the politicians that decided i've a lot of people dying things of that isn't a real good. eventually she did. and finally known to me,

any message you would have a 0 and economist for policy makers, a, a cost to weldon thomas of how they should address the issue of, of long coven from a policy point of view. i think to bottom line one, we should be more rigorous about doing a cost benefit analysis. so this is we have policy making, wilson, he's in the u. k or elsewhere. i think a lot of it hasn't been strictly based on these sorts of, you know, quite ruthless but, but systematic assessments of what might be the best way forward for society at large. for the 50 i listen as plays left us through that with. and then the 2nd lesson is let me do that work place. i just focus on mortality. we need to focus on the mobility side of things as well. but the extra health been an ongoing and additional social impacts of ongoing illness that could be affecting a very large chunk of populations. dr. lynch have made from auckland new zealand. thank you so much for joining me and alex,

i'm and show thanks so much coming up as to the break. alex continues discussions on economic consequences of corporate in the longer term, china, se policy makers in the federal reserve bank and joe biden. the president thinks american is so freaking stupid, that they can make them believe that picking up a worthless shiny round object and going home. chris focus over it magically turns it into a trillion dollars that the again, can deposit at the, at the federal reserve or the treasury to somehow mitigate that $300000000.00 debt crisis. these are the 4 people who pulled the trigger and survive something on survival. one of the harness, things that i had to face was not having

a face, adult expectation to life. i accepted accept the fact that my hours were we had no fears. general change pretty fast for shots. different stories behind the bullets. welcome back. as a member of the monetary policy committee of the bank of england, professor david blind flora was one of the 1st economists to recognize that it inadequate an orthodox response to the wall banking crisis. rest prolonging the economic mercy for millions over many years. so it proved now he's focusing on the human economic impact of corbett, particularly and the united states. he explains this latest work to alex, professor david blanche for thank you so much for joining me. once again, i'm the alex island, ju, i note with what i me seen there. the acute m patman to tell us

an macro economic terms. what thus far has been the, the impact of covered in the, the world economy. the unemployment rate in the united states went from 3 and a half percent to 20 percent in 6 weeks. so we never seen anything that hit as quickly as this. and the, i was a 30, a huge it to the world. and then this and then this thing and a spread and continue and had a big effect on the colonies. central madison, cisco artist team. but now we're in a recovery. and that recovery phase is difficult. it's hard to see what you take away all the stimulus, but this is unprecedented in terms of the press as well as we speak. so then recovery from it is difficult and we're still trying to recover and it's going to take a really long time. but we don't really have much of an historical record. well,

let's compare the leap impact to micro terms were they were the of the pandemic with the, the great recession of starting in 201011. now that the structural aspects of the banking system, this hasn't done that. does that mean that if the correct and perhaps the more an orthodox more challenging economic policies are considered, it should actually be possible and macroeconomic terms to recover quicker from this shock than it was from the banking shock? well, obviously there was a major banking shopping that impacted globally, but actually what it didn't do is it didn't stop people from walking about. and i talked about economics that will good in and we know about full full time square prime square in new york city for a very long time. nobody was walking out for you today. it's about 50 percent of

what it was before. so we didn't have anything like that. we didn't have people not go into restaurants, not going to shops, not going to. so it had a real effect on people. i think people didn't stay at home. i mean, how you hear people say not why not taking bus is not taking training. so that that and it was a major problem and we'll see what happens. restaurants close. sam, we fall in london where people used to get tory station, the meeting, and then they go to office. well no one's been going for a very long time. so. so in a sense, the question is, when this thing goes away with all those phones that are closed, well will they be stolen? so i will be going back to the way they were before. so i think that's what difference in many people did go back to the way they were all in 2010,

and 11 and 12. the question now is in the future, are you going to suspicion? is they all? i mean, the stores closed, they will be factors that close to close in 2009 they have now the question down the road, will a reopen? will people do things differently than they did before? and i think that's the big difference. i think the likely this long changes in behavior will be very different than they were. and that didn't happen. but let's look at the human side of recovery at the long term human effects and economics. the 1st of these is very much related to the, the disease. i mean, just what we, we thought the vaccines were coming to the rescue of the, of least a highly vaccinated economy is a long come variance. and along comes along coven, which seems to be affecting substantial, more people even than what affected and the most acute a part of the,

of the vice. what was the economic effect of having a substantial section of the population for a long time, debilitating. it was the story in many ways to play the story about m e, which is that we don't exactly know what the consequences how long this thing will go if someone is got long coded, like they say they struggle to go back to work. and firms that i've been here in a construction crew, they come to the crew, come back because people are suffering along research, if you life for this is, this is a, this is a problem for, if we don't do about the likelihood is that it will have economic impacts people, if people are a not going to be able to go back to work in the way that they, they were able to, after the great recession, we are unable to work, but they're not actively capable of it. maybe what it will mean is that many people, they only do work remotely, but a lot of it with a very cool. so the,

the consequence that means we have to think out of the office and to suggest that we can somebody just go back to, you know, december 19th, december 20, 20 doesn't look right. and it means that recovery complicated the law. and how about the, what you've been doing with, with colleagues on monitoring the stress anxiety. now obviously, piece of economic uncertainty make people feel anxious, and that's well established. but this pandemic must have a long term effect 'till anxiety as well as the immediate effect to people waiting for the going to catch it. well the going to to be severely l or die well to that, the 1st one in the u. k. we have really good day, all happens. we have a giant dropping happiness in march 2020 in the phone that we've never seen. but i

don't want to work in the united states and what you see there. 2 interesting things. anxiety and depression of worry, has risen dramatically. actually, p, united states in the week of the election and is actually diminished somewhat in there. so i'm particularly worry was true and even voted for buying. but i think there's a know to it, which is actually the, you know, i had a bite and coding and mental health in america. and the answer is actually hungry. quite understood, young disproportionately of the ones that are actually code. and they're the ones disproportionately been anxious and worried about the effects of their ability to go to make a step on to the, into the will. so anxiety, depression, worry, lack of happiness. we've never seen levels like in the u. k. we've never seen a drop in happiness at the time that we saw in march 2020 it's recovery. but again,

go back to where we would go back to 2228. what was interesting is that happen is how they fell at all between 2008 in 2009. so you ask the macro column is the happiness research it? what does it mean and where are we going? i really don't know. and anyone who says the president, my policy committee member says they are clue what me. and just in case you will, i to you live is likely yes or no me. you have a, you live the pioneer. walk about economics. ok. so what do you have got, tell you what, what, what do your students tell you about how this anxiety is going to affect them? economic participants in society. well, and tell me that the, the stress of my students is a number of the friends tell, tell me the jobs in restaurants and fast food houses. the students traditionally do become pretty bad jobs people, you know,

they don't like that particular job. so i think a re evaluation of a low, a joe and we know the price was rising, but i think, i think is this great on certainty, especially for the young. this is the, you know, if you're a 1000000 people, the phone isn't hiring the young people that come up that come out since they come out of school college. so i think what people are telling me is this thing is a lot of adjustments that i'm about teaching. we still are not going to be teaching a classroom. and i have the story i have is that the people vaccinate is only 5 people in the class. it was about a 30 percent like somebody even with somebody in the still. so we have 3. what are you going to do? are you going to go to the office or you know, what, what are you going to do?

so i think the only implications other people are wearing it, especially the young and in the united states in the southern states. this is a big worry. so we, we seen a decline coming the world. now go to a tories in lake, we go back to and back and we've never seen anything like that. famously, you will, the, the lord and voice on the monetary policy committee of the bank of england, who warned that with i would adventurous attempt to recover 10 and 12 years ago, it would have a long term impact to the economy. and that's what transpired, what message would you have to policy makers know as the approach the even more complicated question of how you ensure to cover. great, great i do is the president in 9031 came with he warned about the long tracking conditions. and he said it's

not the track itself, it's about what follows and the question a not. so i think the answer is looking forward in need to think out of the ball. you can go back to the old method. you can't go back a good idea. let's get people out there, all the people who are going to take a long time to recover me. you've got to try and address the real problems. and i like the idea address the real problems of the model and on the my road on my mind road, it was a model. so it was about this, let's figure out 5, let's think about it will be a road in london and trying to think about there will be rather than get to also see what happened. the last thing we need is what we need to small people coming up with you. i think we should meet,

i talked about. and if you don't, what are the consequences? the consequences are going to be very serious on ordinary people. and that's the kind of a night, but it's even worse now because health and economics i'm supposed to get in trouble and straight on straight on. that is huge to as i said, they were bonds for form. that was college. thank you so much for joining me. again, on the alex armand. sure. yes sir. in the long run we're all dead. is a famous lane from england's most celebrated economist john maynard keynes kings did not mean as is often assumed that we should disregard the feature in terms of economic policy. he was either iving that we should not assume that shocks to the economic systems will automatically rate themselves once the initial storm is over . and so it is with corporate. 19,

a whole new branch of economics is developing. i rang the impact of long cove it while earliest that is of the pandemic focused on the immediate collapse of well g, d, p, and the medium term impact on jobs. it's now becoming realized that the biggest, the economic impact of all may not be on the desk of 5000000 people. but the long term debilitation of tens of millions more long after the chip pandemic feeds into memory. and the many immediate winds heal human and therefore the economic scars will remain. and this goes beyond the recovery impact on the public finances with creative rather than orthodox economic policies. it should be possible to refill the coffers of government and to planning the public services. however, the economics of human impact will still endure long covered is likely to

physically impact on a substantial section of the community. and therefore, the workforce, perhaps for years to come. the economic impact of grief, depression, and anxiety is difficult to measure, but it is very real. in economic times, corbett is likely to be ever with us. but for now, you from alex, myself, and all at the shoe, it stays safe, take care. i hope to see you all again next week. ah ah ah,

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