really is going to be looking like longer term, but it's certainly giving us indications that it can be something that has a very long tail. and it could effect a great proportion of the population, especially the younger part of the population, is going to have a very enduring economic cost. it's so many similar disease. what has that debilitating effect and the significant quantity that has been measured? it's a, some compatible can have with other conditions i could speak to my own personal experience in the sense that i had kind of to take some drawing more otherwise known as m e o. miles i can see for my life for 11 years, and hopefully that results i'm years ago. but when i started fist reading about long of it and the sorts of symptoms that the sufferers long kind of having to put up with, they gave me a rather nasty sense of deja food in time. and maybe think that even this these conditions and also tend to call or not even on the same sort of ballpark long as anything like transportation dry as it could have very potentially long consequences for the people who suffer us by which i mean they could be decades of

the lives suffering serious attention and even with that seems as long as this miserable organ damage. and that could lead to premature death. and of course, the numbers that we are being estimated to for long code for those countries, which i'm had a lot rate of infection lightly u. k. for that matter, i perhaps 10 times those who've been severely affected in the acute phase that i did to get it would, could be a huge economic effect over the long term. i agree, i think you're just running numbers, you'd say a certain number of people die from kind of at that's obviously very bad and that's very costly and something we should be paying very much attention to. but statistically speaking, you can imagine a great many more people in fact might not even go to hospital with coverage, but suffer from the illness and they end up with an enduring illness. and even if not all of that cohort, end up having long covered for very long time, already indications,

even from the u. k. when you have something like almost 400000 people that have had long coverage for more than one year, there's some chance of that's will mean there are people that end up potentially many years, possibly decades. if you screen says suffer as a kind of a decent time, for example, is anything to go by. and so, if we extrapolate across the rest of the u. k and across the rest of the pandemic. if we extrapolate across the rest of the world, we can see that there's going to be quite a few people in fact, that will be affected by the us and, and some proportion of that, or what could end up very unwell for very long time. and let's have a look at the composite of the fact that you're speaking to us from new zealand with a company which famously has gone for an elimination strategy. and other companies have done the same. hong kong would be an example. many countries in asia, a family successfully to date, it pursued the very low rates of coven. but other countries, a, been letting go with effectively spread through the, the community suppression certainly, but not elimination is going to be

a competitive effect of those economies which of successfully eliminated. okay. cool, with the very low levels and those who on the basis that the phase doesn't seem to be killing too many people have left that spread for the economy. i know the companies which have taken the bag f up to of elimination legal to be the game else in the, in the longer town. i think most certainly hives. so speaking from you sit on obviously best. i think there is a genuine issue to the countries that allowed the virus to become more endemic. that even us, the mortality right is falling because the vaccination rates are taking off. we should be very mindful of the fact that some is more than one way to create an economic costs from the pandemic and chronic illness. if that's debilitating and it's going people living the normal lives with the normal jobs, et cetera. that's actually a very costly thing. and so, if we think about that, i will, economic cost of the pandemic. we can think about the human cost and loss of life.

and the g p impacts of whatever measures put in place to try and stop the virus from speeding. but we do need to be very mindful also of these other enduring possible health consequences. how exactly do you measure the impact the some of the suffering of debilitating illness? again, some of the wealth of fact to look at dice in a short period of time. and speak to it as a qualified economist who devils from time to time and health economics. but i'm not a specialist health economist. so if someone who is straight into their territory, i'd say this major is used on things like quality adjusted life years and disability adjusted life years, which measures that economists, health economists around the world news to get a sense of how you can compare different kinds of illnesses and if you're literally and, and because economists are called buddies and we don't get invited to parties, we put a dollar value on these things. we, we say that's effectively losing a certain number of life years. all together has a certain price. and so even if people don't lose a life per se,

but they lose the quality of life years because they saw some sort of debilitation, for example, we put a price on that. so, and we only do it because we have to figure out how to ration resources. obviously we need to figure out what's the best way to use the finite resources. we have to get the most benefit for society. and if it requires a cold blooded assessment as to something we have to do with the base, we possibly can. we shouldn't shoot the messenger because we have practitioners of the decimal science, i suppose. but they put it in terms of policy impact. i mean, policy makers will have to make adjustments to the social security policy to, to help at what policy. as a result along, coven are going to be, if we're talking about the numbers, which seems to be the case in those countries, even high vaccinated countries, with large element of, of long coven being been measured in the population. there's going to be a huge shift in policy to accommodate the,

the impact of that. i think that's right. and you're actually pointing to a whole layer of additional costs that aren't often even factored into these sorts of analyses. having some transportation drive. so it's not like they're out there that many actual treatments you might do. and so you could say that it's not very costly. missouri, costly, if the people who don't get the treatment, obviously, but it's not very costly to the system. i'm hopeful, and i'd like to think that's because thrive, it is so widespread and this long kind of condition could be such a present issue. we will get some very serious medical research in the same way. we did a kind of research to developing back things. we should be like getting some very serious research and i can show it and come up with some sort of decent answer to fixing on chi robin just leaving it as one of those conditions people have to live with. i don't mean to what we, we had and public health officials, doctors say on the show from new zealand who the faith we've been saying to. ready you know, one f, are you doing in the u. k, but you invented public health policy and it seems to be practicing it. is that

only sense? economists to new zealand. i start looking at the you can other come to think. why haven't you analyzing these things and recognizing that the huge potential economic impact as well as human suffering a off what is happening in terms of the spread of us contagion might strike you as ironic. but i think a lot of the local economic analysis has been rather more critical in that response as much as that's been not, not a bad outcome for us, but the did the implicit price that's been attached to citing a life even use it as is very very high, and so some economists are wondering why we doing this when we could be rushing out resources and otherwise, why don't we shut down our economy and borders for the seasonal flu that kills talking to people a year, for example. so they sort of, if you're being strictly purely rational about it, you would make these very tough comparisons for the look beyond the way we did us and think about what the various strategies might be around the world and which ones are worked out better than others. i'm sure this is going to spawn great

recession, many years. one of the problems is of course, controlling for all the different factors that are different across each economy. but there are various comparisons that are more anecdotal level. obviously that have been drawn island states, for example, with a greater ability to control the board as mason elimination strategy more viable. and so this is being the question, if you had a choice between elimination and something, getting things spread out in a slightly controlled way. i'm a basic question, why didn't, i mean i, sweden, of course, had the other example of going for a hayden unity strategy from the outside and in some traded, assigned sort of natural experiments. so we get to say, i think where the jury lands on this, you know, it's quite clear the human cost in many countries has been very, very high. the u. s. in ukiah, particular examples obviously. and you see under australia the human cost hasn't been that high. you could, i get the economic cost has been quite high all the same. and i think it is

difficult for politicians if they are faced with the choice of prioritizing the economy either lives. you can say, see how is natural to no want to me that the politicians that presided, i've a lot of people dying. it seems that that isn't a real good initially shed. and finally known to me. any message you would have a 0 in the economist for policy makers, a, a cost to weld and tammy of how they should address the issue of, of long coven from a policy point of view. i think to bottom lines are one. we should be more rigorous about doing a cost benefit analysis. so this is we have policy making, wilson, he's in the u. k or elsewhere. i think a lot of it hasn't been strictly based on these sorts of, you know, quite ruthless but, but systematic assessments of what might be the best way forward for society at large for the 50 i listen as please leave us through that with. and then the 2nd lesson is when we do that work place,

i just focus on mortality. we need to focus on the mobility side of things as well, but the extra help been an ongoing and additional social impacts of ongoing illness that could be affecting a very large chunk of populations. doctor mentioned made from auckland, new zealand. thank you so much for joining me on the alex. i'm and show i thank you much cutting out a path to the bank. alex continues discussions, an economic consequences of cool, but in the longer time, china say ah

ah, is your media a reflection of reality? in the world transformed what will make you feel safe, isolation, whole community? are you going the right way? where are you being led somewhere? direct. what is true? what is great? in the world corrupted, you need to descend a join us in the depths or remain in the shallows. ah,

it's open oklahoma. i think i see you go. he did. who bought? i bought a dial to montgomery. he's on your way, but i know from politicians to athletes and movie stones to musicals does it seems every big name in the world has been here? let's yoko ms. you can pick up. oh, somewhat to wish there wasn't any difficult for you to national book. one was much give me a globe newswire but she said basil makes dreams come true. but everyone who falls in love with it close to one who was no like word. mm

welcome back. as a member of the monetary policy committee of the bank of england professor david bind flora was one of the 1st economists to recognize that inadequate and orthodox response to the war banking crisis, rest prolonging the economic mercy for millions over many years. so it proved. now he's focusing on the human economic impact of corbett, particularly and united states. he explains this latest work for alex, professor david blanche, for a thank you so much for joining me once again on the the i'll examine show cause great to see here. now we've already seen there the acute em patman to telson and macroeconomic terms. what thus far has been the, the impact of covered and the world economy. the unemployment rate in the united states went from 3 and

a half percent to 20 percent in 6 weeks. so we've never seen anything that is quickly as this, and as the allows the 30 a huge in the world. and then this, and then this being and a spread and continue and had a big effect on the colonies, central madison, cisco artist, etc. but now we're in a recovery, and that recovery phase is difficult. it's hard to see what you take away all the stimulus, but this is unprecedented in terms of t, chris, as well as we speak. so then recovery from it is difficult and we're still trying to recover and it's going to take a very long time. but we don't really have much of an historical record. well, let's compare the leap impact to micro terms were they were the of the pandemic with the, the great recession of starting in 201011. now that the structural aspects of the

banking system, this hasn't done that. does that mean that if the co wrecked and perhaps the more an orthodox war, challenging economic policies are considered, it should actually be possible and macroeconomic terms to recover quicker from this shock than it was from the banking shock. well, obviously there was a major banking shopping that impacted globally. but actually what it didn't do is it didn't stop people from walking about when i talked about economics of walking about good a. because we know full in times square in new york city. well, for a very long time, nobody was, wo 5 even today it's about 50 percent of what it was before. so we didn't have anything like that. we didn't have people not go into restaurants, not going to shops, not going to do. so it had

a real effect on people. i think people didn't stay at home. i mean, how do you hear people say not why not taking bus is not taking training so that that it was a major problem and we'll see what happens. 8 restaurants close, sam, we fall in london where people used to get to station the meeting and then they go to office. well no one's been going for a very long time. so in a sense, the question is, when this thing goes away with all those phones that are closed will will they be stolen? so i will be going back to the way they were before. so i think that's what difference in many said people didn't go back to the way they were, all in 2011 and 12. the question now is in the future, are you going to under suspicion? is they all? i mean, the stores closed. they will be factors close to close in 2009.

they have now the question down the road. will they reopen? will people do things differently than they did before? and i think that's the big difference. i think the likely this time around long changes in behavior will be very different than the pre. and that didn't happen. but let's look at the human side of recovery at the long term human effects and economics me. the 1st of these is very much related to the, the disease. i mean, just what we, we thought the vaccines were coming to the rescue of the, of least a highly vaccinated economy is a long come millions and along comes long coven, which seems to be affecting substantially more people even than what affected in the most acute, a part of the, of the vice, what was the economic effect of having a substantial sexual to population were for a long term debilitating. it was a story in many ways to play the story about m e, which is that we don't exactly know what the consequences are. how long this thing

will go if someone has got long coded, like they say they struggle to go back to work. and firms that i've been hearing on construction crew. they can't get the crew come back because people are suffering along on research. if you life from cobra, so this is, this is a, this is a problem for us. we don't want to do about it. but the likelihood is that it will have economic impacts people. if people have any ability, they're not going to be able to go back to work in the way that they, they were able to, after the great respect is willing and able to work. but they're not actively capable of it. maybe what it will mean is that many people, they stay at home and do work remotely, but a lot of it with a very good. so the, the consequence that means we have to think out of the office and to suggest that we can somebody just go back to a world december 19th, december 20,

20 doesn't look right. and it means that recoveries be complicated. a law about the what you've been doing with, with colleagues on monitoring distress, anxiety now obviously piece of economic uncertainty make people feel anxious and that's well established. but this pandemic must have had a long term effect till anxiety, as well as the immediate effect of people waiting for them. going to catch it, whether they're going to to be severely l or die. well, to add to that the 1st one in the u. k. we have really good data happens. we have a giant dropping happiness in march 2020 in the phone that we've never seen. but i don't want to work in the united states and what you see there are 2 interesting things. anxiety and depression of worry has risen dramatically. it actually pete in united states in the week of the election and it's actually diminished

somewhere in there. so i'm particularly worry was true of the people voted by him, but i think was a know to it, which is actually the, you know, i hadn't understood a biting covian mental health in america. and the answer is actually hungry quite on the young, disproportionately of the ones that are actually and they're, the ones disproportionately been anxious and worried about the effect of their ability. joe, to make a step on the will. so anxiety, depression, worry, lack of happiness. we've never seen levels like in the u. k. we've never seen a drop in happiness find that we saw in march 2020. it's recovered a bit. but again, go back to where we were to 20 to 28. what was interesting is that happen is how they fell at all between 20182000 not. so you ask the macro column,

is the happiness research? what does it mean and where are we going? i really don't know. and anyone who says they do a president mushy policy committee member who says they have a clue coming. and just in case you will likely, you likely get to know me. you have a you learn the pioneer of walk about economic job. so what do you got to tell you what, what, what do your students tell you about how this anxiety is going to affect them, say, economic participants and society? well, another them tell me the, the strata my students is a number of the friends tell me the jobs in restaurants and fast food houses. the students traditionally do become pretty bad jobs people, you know, they don't like that particular job. so i think a re evaluation of a low h o m, we seen the price was rising, but i think,

i think is this great certainty, especially for the younger. this is the, you know, if you're not alone, if you a 1000000 people, the firm isn't hiring the young people that come up that come out since they come out of school and college. so i think what people are telling me is this thing, is it a lot of the adjustments that i'm about teaching? we still are going to be teaching a classroom and i have the story i have is the people back and they only 5 people in the class. it was about a 30 percent like somebody even with somebody in the class still. so he has, what are you going to do? are you going to go to the office or you know, what, what are you going to do? so i think the only implications other people are wiring it, especially the young and in the united states in the southern states. this is the big worry. so we, we see a coming the world is now go to people know republicans,

it, tory leg. we've got the facts and they didn't the own back. and we've never seen anything like that. famously, you of the, the lord and voice of the monetary policy committee of the bank of england who warden that with i would adventurous attempt to recover 1012 years ago. it would have a long term impact on the economy. and that's what transpired, what message would you have to policy makers know as the approach the even more complicated question of how you and sure to cover? great, great is the president in 9031 came with he warned about a long tracking condition. and he said it's all about crack itself. it's about what follows. and the quest is, are you going to make it or not? so i think the house is looking for in the to think out of the ball. you can go

back to the old math if you can't go back a really good idea. let's get people out there, all the people who are going to take a long time to recover. mean people to try to address the real problems. and i like the idea address the real problems of the manual on the my road, only a mile in road. it was a mile hole. so it was about, let's see, you know, i think about a month and trying to think about there will be rather than get also. and that's what happened. the last thing we need is what we need to small people coming up with. and if you don't, what are the consequences? the consequences are going to be very serious on ordinary people. and that's the kind of a night. but it's even worse now because health and economics i'm

supposed to get in trouble. i'm straight on straight on that service is huge to professor. they would bunch for college. thank you so much for joining me again on the alex, i'm and sure. yes her in the long run were all dead. is a famous lane from england's most celebrated economist john maynard keynes kings did not mean as is often assumed that we should disregard the future in terms of economic policy. he was either iving that we should not assume that shocked to the economic systems will automatically rate themselves once the initial storm is over . and so it is with corporate. 19, a whole new branch of economics is developing. i rang the impact of long cove it while earliest that is of the pandemic focused on the immediate collapse of well g, d, p, and the medium term impact on jobs. it's now becoming realized that the biggest,

the economic impact of all may not be on the day. so 5000000 people. but the long term debilitation of tens of millions more long after the chip pandemic feeds into memory. and the many immediate winds he'll human and therefore the economic scars will remain. and this goes beyond the recovery impact on the public finances with creative rather than orthodox economic policies. it should be possible to refill the coffers of government and to planning the public services. however, the economics of human impact will still endure long covered is likely to physically impact on a substantial section of the community. and therefore, the workforce, perhaps for years to come. the economic impact of grief, depression, and anxiety is difficult to measure,

but it is very real in economic times cove, it is likely to be ever with us. but for now you from alex, myself, and all at vishal it stay safe, take care. i'm hope to see you all again next week. ah ah ah, ah, the way of life and reindeer herders leading a traditionally nomadic lifestyle in the tundra is similar to a parallel reality. i. while the main drive,

the hood, women carry the weight of the household work on their shoulders. this room was full spread sheet in there. this were york city police. however, in the vast expanse of russia, there is a spot where a house wife could secure regular employment, started. it's in the font, or soon escalated to level terminal with ah, the by did ministrations decision to leave afghanistan was correct in long overdue . however, the way america's longest war ended as a different question, it was

a botched affair. the generals will most likely never be held to account, but alone marine lieutenant colonel does face court martial. is this justice? imagine picking up a future textbook on the early years of the 21st century. what are the chapters called gun violence from school shootings, homelessness 1st, it was my job, then it was my family didn't was my siblings. i have nothing. i have nothing and it's not like i don't try. i look for resources, i look for jobs, i look for everything i can to make this pass. and i end up doing is passing the road to the american dream, paved with dead refugees at this very idealized image of this older america, native americans look past the deaths that happen every single day. this is a modern history of the usa by america on our

t. a frances, how getting the face that whistleblower who details to congress, how the social network is home and young people and stoking division is not being accused of by is that sounds like it much that she has significant ties with time or crime also they sound moscow files account a request to the global chemical weapon forestall, got to be who was sons. question was about the alleged poisoning of criminal critic alex saying the volley despite the o. p. c. w. so refusing to cooperate with russia or the case we hear 1st time from russia's envoy to the 40.