so most of us agree that the climate is indeed changing and it isn't hoax, and that things are going to get worse with time. so how much do we have left before i pick, elliptic scenarios, like the ones was seen like day after tomorrow? movies? well, so there was some nightmare stories that are out. i think we have to look at the evidence of climate change and recognize that's the bell. the whole issue of climate change is scientifically extremely sound so that we know climate change is happening. we know that we are responsible for it through the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and we know that we can do something about it. the question that we have is, how much time do you have? it's a very good question is going to be more than just a few minutes to answer that. so we met more, might want to em, unpack that question a little bit to give you a full on. so we can certainly look into the past to understand how climate change

has happened in the past. like gives us a context for the changes that we're seeing now. and then we have to discuss what we can do about it. and there were many things that we can do that quite complicated. mccoy varied, but we need to take action right now, just a guess or not a guess. how much do we have left? if nothing is done, until everything goes is real bad. we look at the amount of carbon dioxide in atmosphere that we have to day, and it's about $410.00 halls per 1000000. billed us quite high greenhouse gas kelvin docs of the greenhouse gas, and we know that is, will mean the planet it's going up to that level for the industrial revolution about $1850.00 when the carbon dioxide concentration was $280.00 parts per 1000000 . so it's going up over $100.00 about a 100 is that the global warming has been about one degrees centigrade in that time. so there is a, a $1.00 to $1.00 association with the level of carbon dioxide and the warming that we've seen since we started burning fossil fuels. now you have to go back

a long way in the past the last time that the earth had 400 parts per 1000000 of carbon dioxide. in fact, you have to go back about 5000000 years. geologically that was a ton could apply seen. and in the past, in the global temperature was about 4 degrees warmer than it is today. and the sea levels globally were about 220 meters higher than they are today. so if carbon dioxide is the temperature controlled on the planet, that's reasonable to expect that it is. we're going to a lot of changes coming our way in the coming decades in centuries. so then the question is, what do we do about it? and of course, what we need to do is to stop and meeting fossil fuel, carbon emissions, and we have to really reinsert government option, or are we talking about? well, so the 1st step is to reduce it, but ultimately it is to take it away entirely. be into intergovernmental panel on climate change. has a plan to limits global warming to another half

a degrees centigrade that. so that's what was called the 1.5 degree report. so we're already one degree warmer than we should be. and, and there's some things that were locked into that we can't change, but there is a plan to limit global warming to another half a degrees centigrade. but what it means is that we have to deliver is a net 0 global economy in terms of carbon emissions. by 2050 for the middle of the century, thus 30 years time. and that was really a lot of things were discussed in paris at the famous climate summits. i ended up being returned to annually to think about progress has been made. essentially what we have to do is to cut emissions by about 40 percent or 2030 i then to 0 by 2050. so if things don't go the way you are saying, or every big country agrees to reduce a carbon mission by 2050, you know, your colleague, thomas crosser, actually said that moscow's weather is going to be like detroit and london will

resemble barcelona. well moderates climate will be more like mara cash, and if things do go like this, does that mean that sit is like triple your mac are phoenix will basically become inhabitable due to unbearable heat. i want to pose 8 other things like this out loud because i don't really thing that people could realize all of them how serious this issue is for sure so. so each part of the climate is experiencing unusual conditions right now, and they not to kingdom, we've experienced a lot of flooding recently. we've had droughts in recent years. we've had little storms in recent years. and each of them are highly unusual that can be converted to sort of one in a 100 year type events and never curvy more regularly. they're becoming more like one in 10 events. and an increase in extreme weather is something that is predicted with global warming. we're seeing wild fires in australia in california,

in the arctic, in many places we've got droughts in many places, extreme heat in some places, and catastrophic rainfall. these up things which we would expect on the climate change scenarios. and unfortunately, it's starting to play out on the think that's an important thing to recognize because we talk about government action on, on climate change and that she, governments can only do so much to course the changes that are needed. it needs people to take responsibility for the own carbon emissions and it needs businesses to recognize that the future of their future in the next 30 years is going to be very different to that past. and that she does quite exciting from a business perspective because there's lots of opportunities for new ways of thinking and working in the, in the coming decades and business should be embracing this change. so i'm just thinking, if we don't take responsibility, it will snow become some sort of like exotic saying not just for people from saudi arabia, but even like, for know, are there parts of russia and united states and canada?

yeah, it sounds a bit of flippant when we started to talk about whether but actually these things are quite, quite serious. so when we're talking about snow, essentially what we've got with, with snow is a, is a very large accumulation of water stores frozen on the surface of the planet. and that then melt sounds. and that the planet surface is kind of used to operating in a certain way when we change it, change the so cover actually affects the way that the planet surface can accommodate that type of behavior. so it is actually quite serious when we're talking about the changes in snow when we're talking about changes in, in frozen water. also what we're talking about in, in, especially out arctic russia is changes to the permafrost, permanently frozen ground in siberia and other places which is starting to, to mel, felt, and thought meltdown is have in significant consequences or infrastructure for roads and buildings that i'll lay down on what they think is,

is frozen ground solid frozen ground is turning on lots of a and also the release of methane stored beneath the permafrost sealed away from the atmosphere by the time of us because of permafrost melts away, that methane can get into the atmosphere so let's, let's talk a bit more about that because i came across this thing and nature magazine which sat that on the other hand that severely cold winters will be one of the harshest effects of global warming. and that kind of note made no sense to me can explain this paradox. yeah, absolutely. so in the united kingdom a couple of years ago, we had something that will be caught the beast from the east. you probably didn't hear about this, but it was a that's how i usually make all my stories. it was, it was a shock. it was a low, the cold weather that hit the united kingdom event about february couple years ago . and, and the reason for that is that we usually get with us systems from the north atlantic and those are quite stormy. and they've got a little water in them. so obs

a wind says are usually quite mild and wet and windy. but what happens sometimes is they the storm tracts go to the north of britain, of course they know which in greenland see and into the arctic. now in the arctic, there's a high pressure zone, which forbids those storms form going further north. and so because they forbidden from them further north, we get them in western europe. but last couple years ago, what happened in the auto with a high pressure zone didn't form in the way that it, that it should have done. and so the storms went far further north they went in this fall bought an end to be no weekend arctic, causing those places which should be impermanent. darkness in february should be minus 50 minus 25 degrees centigrade. and it was raining now they were having plus 0 degrees of weather in those conditions. so what happened to that white pressure

arctic, whether it drifted further south and i went across europe and the easterly wind picked up a course of very cold continental europe and came further west towards the united kingdom. so as a consequence of changes in the arctic, b arctic essentially received the whether the united kingdom with otherwise got a we receive the arctic weather. so these are alterations for the atmospheric system that is a consequence. so sort of large scale global warming and we're just going to have to get used to seeing more of that type of thing unless you do something about it. so when you mentioned in a previous question about the architect slowly melting out that this is also one of the consequences that we could face in terms of climate change, if nothing is done. and that would be a huge challenge for our flora and fauna. what plans and what animal species do thing will be gone 1st. first of all, if we don't do anything, well, we know that we've lost a lot of species already. so this is if,

if it's something that's thus new to us, a pressures on, on the land, not just in terms of climate change, but also the way that we use land and tearing down of, of forests as well as a huge effect for biodiversity. there was a stress is on pollinators, on bees and insects, as well as the launch mammals as well. so of course, the animal kingdom that there was there were pressure on, on many things. and as we get global warming, we also see is a, is a drift in plants because they are able to start living in places where they haven't traditionally been in before. now usually when climate change happens, say between an ice age and coming out of an ice age, the i say over the last ice age is 20000 years ago. and we came out of an ice age by 10000 years. i said we had 10000 years to warm the planets out and that's quite a long time. and there was a lot of migration of plants and animals. and again, it took about 10000 years, so it was a lengthy amount of time to accommodate that. well,

the changes equivalent changes of a glacial insect glacial cycle 10000 years. normally in terms of carbon dioxide concentration is a 100 parts per 1000000. we're doing it that in about a 100 years. so the rates of change on our planets, as a consequence of burning of fossil fuel, i measured increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases, is fall quicker, you know, to, to orders of magnitude quicker than the planet is normally able to accommodate us. and so, implants stop, stop moving, is the land able to accommodate that? rapid shift. it's all about you. when you're planting a tree in the soil, is the microbiology, the small microbes in the soil that really allows the trees to thrive. and all the trees must be able to migrate quite quickly. is a really unknown question about whether the microtubule communities, which are so important to the development of plants, whether they are able to shift at the same pace as well. so we're performing

a very unusual experiment on our planet, changing it more rapidly than it's ever been changed before with the found consequences to the way that plants and animals and ourselves live on it. right now, we're going to take a short break right now. and when we're back we'll continue talking to martini seager, it glassy ologist and co director of the graham institute for climate change at imperial college london discuss a potential consequences of global warming. it's nothing is done. stay with us. ah ah

ah mm. the british and american governments have often been accused of destroying lives in their own interests. while you see in this, these techniques is to stay, devising methods to end, essentially destroy the personality of an individual. by scientific means. this is how one doctors, theories were allegedly used in psychological warfare against prisoners deemed a danger to the state. that was the foundation for the method of psychological

interrogation, psychological torture, the ca, disseminated within the u. s. intelligence community and worldwide among allies for the next 30 years. and how the victim say they still live with the consequences today. oh ah. and we're back with professor martin seger, it glassy ologist and co director of the grant him institute for climate change at imperial college london discussing the dangers of global warming work. martin,

welcome back. so these days we can predict where and when and hurricane or it's not always going to hit several days in advance, mostly in there still bring such distraction and so much death. know you and your colleagues keep saying that climate change is going to make the weather unpredictable and completely erratic. are we going to be able to predict any kind of natural disaster at all here? when in terms of whether we're able to protect extreme events several days before they can, can hit so i happened to be in texas when hurricane harvey hit lamb for at corpus kristie and southern texas and a huge wave of water, a spiral arm of the hurricane. system landed over houston. i was in houston at the time and deposited a huge amount to right now about $45.00 days before the actually happened. there was an extreme weather warning,

all both places and the whole of texas. i and it was predicted remarkably well by the medical models that were employed to do just that. and that's actually quite a good thing to observe because we understand the physics of the atmosphere really well. and we have a lot of data on from the ocean warehouse canes, acquire the heat that feed into the models so that we quite confident that we're able to predict how these systems are going to affect us. so when you think about it have for 5 days, all of warning. now you might argue that, that the way that we act in those for 5 days needs to improve because a lot of people were severely affected by that storm. and all the storms around the world, but our ability to forecast extreme events is getting better, not worse. so scientists have recently found in the antarctic. they prince of lead stay grow only in warm regions like plain trees and the cheese. does that

mean that ancient times to climate in the antarctic was similar to the mediterranean? well let's, we can take a history through geology, if you like. so essentially from about 55000000 years ago when the level of carbon dioxide concentration was a 1000 parts per 1000000. at that time, there was no, i seen antarctica toll and the global temperature was about 8 to 12 degrees warmer on average. i mean, the polar regions, it was doubled up, so over 16 to 20 degrees centigrade in the, in the polar regions. and there was no, i saw on, on top to killer, told it was covered by trees. quite a beautiful place, right. but since 55000000 years ago, essentially the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been coming down and down gradually getting low up and, and is becoming colder. as

a consequence of that, about 14000000 years ago and told to car separated from south america and got encapsulated by a very strong ocean current that wraps itself around the continents and isolates it, climb magically from the rest of the world, put it into the really deep freeze and since 14000000 years ago, essentially we've had a persistent, deep, thick ice cover, ice cover and tanika. now recently we talk about ga will time, and the reason it is important to us is because, as i said previously, the last time we had 400 parts per 1000000 of carbon dioxide was 5000000 years ago . if we keep missing fossil fuels in the way that we're currently doing it, or the end of this century, or 2100 level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will be a 1000 past the 1000000 that we wouldn't have seen. but level of carbon dioxide for 55000000000 years. and when that last happened, there was no washing up on it and as you said, and told to have plumps and trees living on it. so the consequences will be

a sea level globally of about 60 maces. higher than it is today, and very, very well conditions though it might take several centuries so millennia to get to that point. but the lesson from the geology is quite straightforward when you get a 1000 policy for 1000000 of carbon dioxide. the well changes unrecognizably from what it is today. so the world like you say has to be pitted into east and west camps, but really it could be seen as divided between south in the north, right. northern countries fair much better and there are more developed technologically advanced richer, and they used to own the south to so with climate change hitting the south. first of all, how will that serve division never be breached? will the sandwiches be thrown back hundreds of years by natural disasters? never to recover? well, i think that verbal, verbal warming is just that is going to affect us us all. there is a,

a concern that it's the poorest countries that might suffer the most. largely because of some of them, a living, a quite low levels, 1st a c. and that will experience land lawson, population migration. but also because they're so poor, they don't have mitigation and adaptation strategies available to them in a way that some developed countries might be able to do. so there is the notion of, of climate justice, the poorest countries in the world didn't cause this problem where they were on the front line of receiving the effects. but i wouldn't say it's the north and south saying the global warming will affect the entire planet in different ways. for example, when global, when the ice sheets start to melt, when greenland ice sheet melts, and when the and told us she melts. and we're seeing the stall to that white. now sea level goes up all over the world while i'm potentially for mrs. said by 2050. when i you said, wish it completely put the carbon mission to 0 more than half of the world is

predicted, population will lack drinking water. oh, how are we going to deal with that? well, science fine away, or are we headed towards water wars? see absolutely right. so we have a lot of stresses on, on the planet right now. a lot of them are caught that all caused by all small caused by humans but in different ways. so we look at global warming and that affects things like extreme heat and flash floods. i'm potentially our ability to quote, quote, when we're looking at the availability of water that is impacted by climate change, but also the over use of fresh water on the planet right now. so for example, we are depleting ground was a water stored beneath the surface of the planet that takes centuries, sometimes thousands of years to build up and wait a fleeting them in decades. and this is going to take me if we, if we run out of that groundwater in some places, it's going to take a very long time for it to be defeated. so there's a lot of water on the planet. and we need better ways to manage that water,

and that will be food reservoirs. it will be food using less water is possibly we can de salivate water as well. especially if we have efficient ways to do that, coupled with electricity generated through through solar panels. so there are lots of ways in which we can look off to the water on the planets, but we need to do a much better job than we do in at the moment. so many colleges and people who know the subject, including yourself, are basically saying that we have the next decade or so to do something about the climate change. and this would, realistically speaking, require complete transformation of our mentality because you're right. it's not the government's only. it's to people and businesses. it's our basic ways of life and you know, old habits die hard, right? from what i see, we're usually reluctant to abandon comfort and habits for something we want feel or

see right away. you're saying it may take a couple of sent until i dunno. ice melts. and sea levels rise to 60 meters high from now. so can we really change within the next 10 or 15 years now that we've been destroying and depleting planetary over the last 100 subsidy? yeah, we really can. and so this look at the way that we live right now and, and think about the developed countries that we will part of and think about the way that we live our lives. and some of the things that we take for granted, and you think about warming off our homes and the food and all those things. but think about it a slightly different way and think about the quality of the air that way of breathing. and especially in cities, london in particular. now the air quality is illegal, especially in the winter time. and that's no good for our health. now we have a right to be breathing. and so with

a low comp and transformation and the development of renewable energies and clean energies that when happen, we'll clean up the air in our cities. the cities will be nicer places to live. and when we talk about using less energy em, i mean take in the insulation your home is better, it might been taking the thermostat down. i'm not sure to so it's not boiling a hole in your house, but it's just a little bit kuda. but then you get cheaper energy bills as well. and i'd say to people, when the nervous about this transition, who doesn't want to have clean air, you know, the damage that it's doing to your health and your children's health is, is profound. and who doesn't want to have cheaper energy bills? so the, the future of this, this transition that we absolutely need to undertake, we shouldn't be fearful of. it will be different, where there are many positive effects to this. i'm in particular, importantly, to our own health. all right, martin, thank you so much for this. inside, we're talking to professor martine senior glass geologist and co director of the

grant them institute for climate change and imperial college london discussing global warming at what we have to get ready for in case we fail to deal with it. that's it for this edition of self and co, i'll see you next time. ah ah, if you want something done, right, do it yourself. the acronym d i y, i do it yourself, has now become the name for a new genre of online videos. we do cover with martha white. i need some acres. yup. so that, you know, you can have the, wasn't working any more to read the book

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