ah oh, come to so feca visionaries, me sophie shevardnadze, raising sea levels. cities covered with smog, hurricanes, and storms, wrecking havoc. well, a climate change is an issue of our own making that could soon be felt in every corner of the planet. can we reverse it or is it too late? i asked professor martin sigurd glass geologists and co director of the grant. the men stood for climate change in imperial college london. martin sigurd, welcome to the share. it's really great to have you with us. so martin, most of us agree that the climate is indeed changing and it isn't a hoax and that things are going to get worse with time. so how much do we have

left before pick elliptic scenarios, like the ones was seen like day after tomorrow, movies? well, so there was a nightmare toys that are out. i think we have to look at the evidence of climate change and recognize that's the bell. the whole issue of climate change is scientifically extremely sound so that we know climate change is happening. we know that we are responsible for it, for the emissions of greenhouse gases into that was fair and we know that we can do something about it. the question that we have is, how much time do you have? it's a very good question, is going to be more than just a few minutes to answer. that's what we meant more might want to, i'm unpack that question a little bit to give you the full on. so we can certainly look into the past to understand how climate change has happened in the past. my kitchen is a context for the changes that we're seeing now. and then we have to discuss what we can about it. and there were many things we can do that quite complicated,

the quite varied, but we need to take action right now, just a guess or not a guess. how much do we have left? if nothing is done until everything goes is real bad. we look at the amount of carbon dioxide in atmosphere that we have to day, and it's about $410.00 hearts per 1000000. now that's quite high. greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide is the greenhouse gas, and we know that this will mean the planet it's going up on that level for the industrial revolution, about $1850.00. when the carbon dioxide concentration was $280.00 parts per 1000000 . so it's going up over 100 about 100 is that the global warming has been about one degrees centigrade in that time. so there is a, a $1.00 to $1.00 association with the level of carbon dioxide and the warming that we've seen since we started burning fossil fuels. now you have to go back a long way in the past the last time that the earth had 400 parts per 1000000 of

carbon dioxide. if i have to go back about 5000000 years, geologically that was a tongue could apply seen in the pharmacy. the global temperature was about 4 degrees warmer than it is today. and the sea levels globally were about 220 meters higher than they are today. so if carbon dioxide is the temperature controlled on the planet, most reasonable to expect that it is regard all the changes coming our way in the coming decades in centuries. so then the question is, what do we do about it? and of course, what we need to do is to stop and meeting fossil fuel, carbon emissions, and we need to do it lately. i mean, the government options, are we talking? yeah, the intake of a well. so the 1st step is to reduce it, but ultimately it is to take it away entirely. the intergovernmental panel on climate change has a plan to limits global warming to another half a degrees centigrade that. so thus was called the 1.5 degree report. so we're

already one degree warmer than we should be. and under some things that were locked into that we can't change. but there is a plan to limit global warming to another half a degrees centigrade. but what it means is that we have to deliver is a net 0 global economy in terms of carbon emissions by 2050 for the middle of the century, thus 30 years time. and that was really a lot of things were discussed in paris at the famous climate summits. i ended up being returned to annually to think about progress has been made. essentially, what we have to do is to cut emissions by about 40 percent or 2030. i then to 0 by 2050. so if things don't go the way you are saying, or every big country agrees to reduce a carbon mission by 2050, you know, your colleague, thomas crosser, actually said that moscow's weather is going to be like detroit and london will resemble barcelona. well moderates climate will be more like mara cash,

and if things do go like this, does that mean that sit is like triple here? mac are phoenix will basically become inhabitable due to unbearable heat. i want to pose 8 of the things like this out loud because i don't really thing that people could realize all of them. how serious this issue is for sure, so. so each part of the planet is experiencing unusual conditions right now, and they not to kingdom, we've experienced a lot of flooding recently. we've had droughts in recent years. we've had little storms in recent years. and each of them a highly unusual that can be configured to sort of one in a 100 year top events and have a curvy more regularly that becoming more like one in 10 events. and an increase in extreme weather is something that is predicted with global warming. we're seeing wild fires in australia in california, in the arctic, in many places we've got droughts in many places, extreme heat in some places, and catastrophic rainfall. these up things which we would expect on the climate

change in august, and unfortunately it's starting to play out on the think that's an important thing to recognize because we talk about government action on, on climate change. and that she, governments can only do so much to course the changes that are needed. it needs people to take responsibility for their own carbon emissions. and it needs businesses to recognize that the future of their future in the next 30 years is going to be very different to that past. and that she does quite exciting from a business perspective because there's lots of opportunities for new ways of thinking and working in the coming decades and business should be embracing this change. so i'm just thinking, if we don't take responsibility, it will snow become some sort of like exotic saying not just for people from saudi arabia, but even like, for know, are there parts of russia and united states and canada? yeah, it sounds a bit of flippant when we start to, to talk about the weather,

but actually these things are quite, quite serious. so when we're talking about snow, essentially what we've got with, with snow risa, is a very large accumulation of water stores frozen on the surface of the planet. and that then melt sounds. and that the planet surface is kind of used to operating in a certain way when we change it, change the so cover actually affects the way that the planet surface can accommodate. that's that type of behavior. so it is actually quite serious when we're talking about the changes in snow when we're talking about changes in, in frozen water. also what we're talking about in, in, especially out all russia is changes to the permafrost, permanently phase and ground in siberia and other places which is starting to, to mel felt. and that meltdown is having significant consequences or infrastructure for roads and buildings that i'll lay down on. what they think is, is frozen ground solid frozen ground is turning out much of a and also the release of methane stored beneath the permafrost,

sealed away from the atmosphere. by the time of us, but as of permafrost melts away, that methane can get into the atmosphere. so let's, let's talk a bit more about that because i came across this thing and nature magazine which sat that on the other hand that severely cold winters will be one of the harshest effects of global warming. and that kind of note made no sense to me can explain this paradox. yeah, absolutely. so in the united kingdom, a couple years ago we had something that will be caught the beast from the east. you probably didn't hear about this, but it was a that's how they, how usually they call my stories. it was, it was a shock. it was a low, the cold weather that hit the united kingdom around about february couple years ago . and, and the reason for that is that we usually get with our systems from the north atlantic and those are quite stormy. and they've got a little water in them. so obs a wind says are usually quite mild and wet and windy. but what happens sometimes is

they the storm tracks go to the north of britain across the know which in greenland see and into the arctic. now in the arctic, there's a high pressure zone, which forbids those storms form going further north. and so because they forbidden for going further north, we get them in western europe. but last couple years ago, what happened in the auto with a high pressure zone, didn't form in the way that it, that it should have done. and so the storms went far further. no, they went in, this fall bought an end to be no region arctic, causing those places which should be impermanent. darkness in february should be minus 50 minus $25.00 degrees centigrade, and it was raining now they were having plus 0 degrees of weather in those conditions. so what happened to that quite push up on it, whether it drifted further south and i went across europe and the easterly wind picked up a course of very cold continental europe and came further west towards the united

kingdom. so as a consequence of changes in the arctic, b arctic essentially received the whether the united kingdom with otherwise got a we receive the arctic weather. so these are alterations for the atmospheric system that is a consequence. so sort of large scale global warming and we're just going to have to get used to seeing more of that type of thing unless you do something about it. so when you mentioned in a previous question about the architect slots, slowly melting out that this is also one of the consequences that we could face in terms of climate change if nothing is done. and that would be a huge challenge for our flora and fauna. what plants and labor animal species do thing will be gone 1st. first of all, if we don't do anything, well, we know that we've lost a lot of species already. so this not is, it is, if it's something that's thus new to us, a pressures on, on the land, not just in terms of climate change, but also the way that we use land and tearing down of, of forests as well as

a huge effect for biodiversity. there was a stress is on pollinators, from bees and insects, as well as the launch mammals as well. so of course, the animal kingdom that there is, there were pressure on many things. and as we get global warming, we also see is a, is a drift in plants because they are able to start living in places where they haven't traditionally been in before. now usually when climate change happens, say between an ice age and coming out of an ice age, the i say over the last ice age is 20000 years ago. and we came out of an ice age by 10000 years. so we had 10000 years to warm the planets out, and that's quite a long time. and there was a lot of migration of plants and animals. and again, it took about 10000 years, so it was a lengthy amount of time to accommodate that. well, the changes equivalent changes of a glacial insect glacial cycle 10000 years. normally in terms of carbon dioxide

concentration is a 100 parts per 1000000. we're doing it that in about a 100 years. so the rates of change on our planets, as a consequence of burning of fossil fuel, i measured increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases, is fall quicker, you know, to, to orders of magnitude quicker than the planet is normally able to accommodate us. and so when plants stop, stop moving is by land able to accommodate that rapid shift. it's not about you when you're planting a tree in the soil is the microbiology, the small microbes in the soul that really allows the trees to 5. and all the trees must be able to migrate quite quickly. is a really unknown question about whether the microtubule communities, which are so important to the development of plans, whether they are able to shift at the same pace as well. so we're performing in a very unusual experiment on our planet, changing it more rapidly than it's ever been changed before with the found

consequences to the way that plants and animals and ourselves live on it. and we're going to take a short break right now. and when we're back, we'll continue talking to martini seeger it glassy ologist and co director of the grant and miss it is for climate change at imperial college london discuss potential consequences of global warming. if nothing is done, stay with us. ah what explain show biden's sudden drop in the poles as a candidate you promise to return to some form of normality. however, his current standing with the public is anything but is his agenda the problem? maybe he's not as likable as he once see, he is in trouble and so is his party. and

it has to be rash, to be able to afford enzyme, and find the luxury that for sure. despite having the most expensive health care system in the world, we have poor life expectancy. we have higher infant mortality. we have more deaths from treatable causes. so americans are suffering every day from it. it's as if these people don't count. i saw how they can choose their customers and dump a sick so also a can satisfy their wall street investors. no parents should have to see what i saw. so if you're denying payment for someone's care, your make life and death decisions and determine to get to live and who dies to me,

that's best getting away with murder. ah, is your media a reflection of reality? in the world transformed what will make you feel safe? isolation will community are you going the right way or are you being that somewhere? right. what is true was his faith in the world corrupted. you need to descend. ah, so join us and the devils will remain in the shallows.

ah and we're back with professor martin sea, girt glassy ologist and co director of the grant him institute for climate change at imperial college london discussing the dangers of global warming work. martin, welcome back. so these days we can predict where and when and hurricane or it's not always going to hit several days in advance, mostly in there still bring such distraction and so much death. no, you and your colleagues keep saying that climate change is going to make the

weather unpredictable and completely erratic. are we going to be able to predict any kind of natural disaster at all here? when in terms of whether we're able to protect extreme events several days before they can, can hit so i happened to be in texas when hurricane harvey hit landfall at corpus kristie and southern texas and a huge wave of water, a spiral arm of the hurricane system. landed over houston, i was in houston at the time and deposited a huge amount of right now about $45.00 days before that actually happened. there was an extreme weather warning. all those places in the whole of texas. i and it was predicted remarkably well by the medical models that were employed to do just that. and that's actually quite a good thing to observe because the, we understand the physics of the atmosphere really well. and we have a lot of data on from the ocean warehouse canes,

acquire the heat that feed into the models so that we quite confident that we're able to predict how these systems are going to affect us. so when you think about it, we have for 5 days of, of warning. now you might argue that the way that we acts in those 4 or 5 days needs to improve because a lot of people were severely affected by, by that storm and all the storms around the world. but our ability to forecast extreme events is getting better, not, not worse. so scientists have recently found in there and tar take at the prince of lead, stay grow only in warm regions like plain trees and beaches. does that mean that ancient times to climate in the antarctic was similar to the mediterranean? well let's, we can take a history through geology, if you like. so essentially from about 55000000 years ago when the level of carbon

dioxide concentration was a 1000 parts per 1000000. at that time, there was no ice in antarctica toll and the global temperature was about $8.00 to $12.00 degrees warmer on average. and in the polar regions, it was double about, so over $16.00 to $20.00 degrees centigrade in the, in the polar regions. and there was no ice on, on, on top to killer, told it was covered by trees and quite a beautiful place to it. but since 55000000 years ago, essentially the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been coming down and down gradually getting low up and, and is becoming corridor. as consequence of that, i had about 14000000 years ago and tanika separated from south america. and got encapsulated by a very strong ocean current that wraps itself around the continents annoyed the late cit. climatic lee from the rest of the world, put it into the river. deep freeze. and since 14000000 years ago,

essentially we've had a persistent, deep, thick ice kava, kava, and tanika. now, reasonably talk about georgia will time, and the reason it is important to us is because, as i said previously, the last time we had 400 parts per 1000000 of carbon dioxide was 5000000 years ago . if we keep a mixing fossil fuels in the way that we're currently doing it, or the end of this century or $2100.00 level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will be a 1000 passed a 1000000 that we wouldn't have seen by level of carbon dioxide for 55000000000 years. and when that last happened, there was no washing up on it and as you said, and told to have plants and trees living on it. so the consequences will be a sea level globally of about 60 maces, higher than it is today, and very, very well conditions now it might take several centuries so millennia gets about points. but the lesson from the geology is quite straightforward. when you get

a 1000 parts per 1000000 of carbon dioxide, the well changes unrecognizably from what it is today. so the world like you say has to be pitted into east and west camps, but really it could be seen as divided between south and the north. right, northern countries fair much better and there are more develop technologically advanced richer and they used to own the south to so with climate change hitting the south, 1st of all, how will that serve division never be breached? will the south just be thrown back hundreds of years by natural disasters? never to recover? well, i think verbal global warming is just last is going to affect us us all. there is a, a concern that it's the poorest countries that might suffer the most. largely because that some of them a living a quite low levels, 1st a c and they will experience land lawson, population migration. but also because they're so poor, they don't have mitigation and other patient strategies available to them in

a way that some develop countries might be able to do. so there is the notion of, of climate justice, the poorest countries in the world didn't pause, is of them. are they on the front line of receiving the effects? but i wouldn't say it's the north and south thing. the global warming will affect the entire planet in different ways. for example, when global, when the ice sheets start to melt, when greenland ice sheet out some window and told us she melts. and we're seeing the start of that white. now, sea level goes up all over the world. i potentially our meters. so by 2050, when you said, wish it completely put the carbon mission to 0 more than half of the world is predicted, population will lack drinking water. oh, how are we going to deal with that? well, science fine away, or are we headed towards water wars? see absolutely right. so we have a lot of stresses on, on the planet right now. a lot of them are caught that all cool smiles will cool

for humans, but in different ways. so we look at global warming and that affects things like extreme heat and flash floods. and potentially our ability to quote quotes when we're looking at the availability of water that is impacted by climate change, but also the over use of fresh water on the planet right now. so for example, we are depleting ground water water stored beneath the surface of the planets that take centuries, sometimes thousands of years to build up and wait a fleeting them in decades. and this is going to take me if we, if we run out of that groundwater in some places, it's going to take a very long time for it to be defeated. so there's a lot of water on the planet. and we need better ways to manage that water, and that will be through reservoirs. it will be through using less water is possibly we can do celebrates water as well. especially if we have efficient ways to do that, coupled with electricity generated through through solar panels. so there are lots

of ways in which we can look off to the water on the planets, but we need to do a much better job than we do in at the moment. so many colleges and people who know the subject, including yourself, are basically saying that we have the next decade or so to do something about the climate change. and this would, realistically speaking, require complete transformation of our mentality because you're right. it's not the government's only. it's to people and businesses. it's our basic ways of life and you know, old habits die hard, right? from what i see, we're usually reluctant to abandon comfort and habits for something we want feel or see right away. you're saying it may take a couple of sent until i dunno. ice melts. and sea levels rise to 60 meters high from now. so can we really change within the next 10 or 15 years now that we've been destroying and depleting,

planet earth over the last 100 stuff to do the yeah, we really can. and so this look at the way that we live right now and, and think about the developed countries that we will part of and think about the way that we live our lives. and some of the things that we take for granted, and you think about forming all of our homes and the food and all those little things. but think about it a slightly different way and think about the quality of the air that way of breathing. and especially in cities, london in particular, know the air quality is illegal, especially in the winter time. and that's no good for our health. now we have a right to be breathing. and so with a low comp and transformation and the development of renewable energies and clean energies that when happen, we'll clean up the air in our cities. the cities will be nicer places to live. and when we talk about using less energy em, i mean take in the insulation your home is better,

it might been taking the thermostat down. i'm not sure to so it's not boiling hole in your house, but it's just a little bit kuda. but then you get cheap energy bills as well. and i'd say to people, when the nervous about this transition, who doesn't want to have clean air, you know, the damage that it's doing to your health and your children's health is, is profound. and who doesn't want to have cheaper energy bills? so the, the future of this, this transition that we absolutely need to undertake should be fearful of. it will be different, where there are many positive effects to this. i'm in particular, importantly, to our own health. all right, martin, thank you so much for this. inside, we're talking to professor martine senior glass geologist and co director of the grant them institute climate change and imperial college london discussing global warming at what we have to get ready for in case we fail to deal with it. that's it for this edition of survey and co, i'll see you next time with

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with that line passes for new york city is essential workers to choose between getting vaccinated or losing their pay. the ultimate, it has seen the mayor's residence, besieged by protest. an awkward moment at the g. 20 has joe biden, me to manual micron for the 1st time after the us dabbed france in the back over a nuclear submarine deal we did was clumsy was done with a lot of grace and the new parliament is doing the european commission for failing to hold accountable, those never states who defy the blocks rule of law, that as the polish foreign ministry summoned the belgian ambassador of the countries criticism of warsaw approach to its legal dispute with crust. because your headlines, i'll be back in.