for the region and for the world war to discuss that now joined by an a to leave that a senior fellow at the quinta institute for responsible safe profits in washington, d. c. dr. lehman is great to talk to you. thank you very much for finding the time . now, i'm sure that the closing of the in either lays in office in moscow and rushes mission to brussels, didn't come as big of a surprise to you. they weren't functioning any way. but i think there's something noteworthy about the 2 sides, not even trying to keep up appearances anymore. what do you think? yes, i mean, it's another step downwards. and it also illustrates the absence of coordinated thinking in washington because clearly this nature decision would not have been taken without the agreement of washington. the biden administration at the moment seems to be anxious to reduce tension with russia, hence the visit of newland to moscow. and the fairly cool reception of zelacofsky

in, in washington. but on the other hand, they now go along with this, the complete end of relations with nato. which of course, on the russian side was response to the expulsion by nature of alleged russian agents. but you also get the general austin eunice saying that some ukraine in georgia are going to be members of nature one day, which by the way, very few people in the private touch. well, leave any. you mentioned a lot of things that need, i'm packing. so let's take them one by one. i want to start with this silent treatment metaphor because i'm a psychology both and in couples counseling, this kind of silence rather than loud fights are considered a major sign of breaking up. i wonder when it comes to the relationship, very uneasy relationship between russia and need to do you think we have seen the

worst already, or the real break up is, is yet to come. well, i hope we've seen the worst, but, you know, the, the most dangerous aspect of this breaches that you know, you have nato ships and planes wandering around in the baltic in the black sea. there is always the risk of an accidental collision, not one that i the desired but you know, when you have war planes operating at high speeds around each other as happened. you know, with a child with this america over china 20 years ago. there is the, there is always the possibility of an accident which will then lead to a drastic deterioration of relation. and that's why i think it's so confusing to have service like myself because of the as you mentioned, direct communication between moscow and washington not only existed that i think it has actually intensified, ended, abide in administration. some people would suggest that the moscow and washington's poses a more aligned now,

then let's say 3 years ago under trump. why do you think washington seems to be preferring a direct contact with moscow without necessarily going circles through brussels? well, i mean, let's, let's face it in washington as always, treated brussels with just a brussel. does that to take american orders? right. it's, it's a useful client. organize. ok, why is it no longer useful to wash it? i mean, it is still useful, but you know, and america is very anxious if you, you know, if you look at stolen birds, ledger speech that trying to get nato to become part of the confrontation with china. but i think at the same time, if washington at the moment does want to relax tension, some logic with russia, then of course, nature is not such a huge useful organization because in nature has been the most provocative western

organization. so, roger is cuz you're interpreting that as a sign of actually reaching out to moscow. no. but because as i say, i fear that american policy is to uncoordinated for that. partly because you have so many domestic pressures, every american administration is always looking over it shoulder at what the american media will say, what people in congress will say, what people within the democratic party will say. and especially of course, you know, after afghanistan, on the one hand, the biden administration does want to reduce american commitments elsewhere to really concentrate on china. but at the same time, of course, the withdraw withdraw from afghanistan and the collapse of the african states has created this impression of american weakness. so on the other hand, biden has to, you know, gives the continued appearance of toughness and learning and international affairs

. now, moscow has long considered nader obsolete, and accused it of playing up russia's threat in order to justify its existence. this closing of direct communication while maintaining bilateral context, both between moscow in washington and between moscow and the native partners. isn't that supporting russia's thesis that nader has outlived long out least its purpose? yeah, i mean, it does, but nature, you have to understand means different things to different people. i mean, in poland the baltic states the resume. nope. sincere paranoia i regards because large and crazy. but unix you can be crazy and sincere at the same time. you know, within many native structures it is, as you say, i think a much more cynical calculation about basically the need to unit the need for adam

is so as to preserve nature as an organization off all of the looks and the end of the code will look at all the different roles that nato has sort defined for it. so it's failed that every one by the way. but clearly you have, you know, not just within the unit within the nato operators. but what one has understand is that the west european, the germans in particular, but all the others as well. absolutely terrified of being left alone. well, and actually i think the recent withdrawal from garrison has clearly demonstrated that the american, and frankly native security blanket has very big holes in it, or sometimes not even available when it's needed the most. do you think this very vivid example will change if not the rhetoric, the public rhetoric of nater with regards to russia, but some internal processes a bit, but the fear was always there of america again going home. and of course,

you know when to exaggerate important ref kennestone, america withdrew from vietnam without withdrawing from europe. but the fear is always there and you know that that is why the west europeans claim to nato in this way. frankly, how much the americans kick the you know, what happened to france with the australian suffering due. but still, it is, the calculation of the french eats that they cannot do without america. now, at the core of russia, nature, attentions, lies. most concerned about nato's expansion towards its borders. not only through formal acceptance of new members, but also through some sort of informal corporation, most notably with ukraine in georgia. and i would suppose that now when native feels certain weakness with americans,

leaving them in such your disregarding fashion, there will be some need for postering. would you expect that to come come up again with that you know, more courting of georgia and ukraine and perhaps even more pride practical steps in trying to draw them closer in people. i think we've seen that with general lloyd austin statements, you know, those are just statements at this point and wish before but will yes, but i mean, you know, they restate the commitment i don't think that the biden administration wants at the moment to, to actually increase those commitments in practice because after all, it means this is absolutely basic geo politics, if you're facing at least as uses the need for vastly increased commitments in asia against china. well, it really does not make sense to increase your commitments elsewhere if it's not

necessary. so as you say, i think the, the desire is to continue the rhetoric of, for georgia and ukraine, but not actually to, to try to push, you know, to, to push this further forward. i regard further, ne to expansion is dead, frankly. because after all, nature membership, the children, ukraine, employees, native support for those 2 countries in their territorial disputes with russia. well, i mean, that causes de pardon, sire to you in western european countries. and by the way, i mean under the surf, it's among a good many people in america to need a member states last. $1140.00 for service members and have garrison which compared to the countless agen civilians. and i think roughly 2 and a half 1000 american troops is a relatively small number. i think you don't even hear it being discussed in

britain. britain last proportionately more troops in afghanistan than the americans . but if the mayor is indeed serious about standing up to the so called, the russian aggression that would involve potential involves a much bigger loss of life. do you think people, when the native politicians, when they talk about, you know, being tough with russia, do they keep that, you know, loss of life aspect in mind all the time. you have to understand that so much of this nato stuff is theatrical. it's purely theatrical nato did not fight for georgia in 2000 made it unto plan to fight for georgia. there was not the slightest consideration of ever fighting for georgia and of course, it didn't fight to ukraine in 2014 either. and there is absolutely no intention anywhere in western europe to send a single. so dot shore,

danish or german or french soldier, to fight in ukraine in a way is just the safe way of postering and externalizing, you know, problems in russia. cosy, nemesis, juanita? well, i mean, there is real fear that as well, you know, genuine paranoid as i say. but there is, yes, i mean there is also a great deal of the convenient out of the convenient enemy. i have a formula that this, i say that nato will never actually defend any we're russia might attack. and russia will never attack any word, but nato might defend because, you know, on the other hand, i regard unit a stuffy region in the west about a russian threat to invade the baltic states or does just absolutely nonsense in crane and georgia, that's a different matter very of course there are ongoing frozen conflict, but now this notion of red lines is key for both

russia and later. and i think, especially the russian level prison, putin has committed the country to both flexibility and firmness in defining in defending those lines. which i think is a very significant ambition. and if i were one of the nader commanders, i would want to challenge that. do you think this high things game will play out somehow in the near future? do you think nader will try to sort of test those red lines as the kremlin draws them well. symbolically, you know, like the visits of that parish warship, the destroyer to the black sea when they sample, that is not the real danger. know, but that's what i mean symbolically, they will go on testing them and making the point. but i mean, there is no desire. what about the russians? do you think for the russians?

it's also a symbolic issue or? well, the thing on the nato saw there is only one real red line in the sense of a line that if crossed will lead to war. and that is an attack on the nature member . because then there is a legal obligation, a treaty obligation to fight. so, you know, if to a repetition in lapse of both of what happened in ukraine, then it would be very, very dangerous. indeed. but once again, rusher i think the russian government understands that very well and has no such intention and on, as i say on the nature side. if in fact, nobody wants to risk actual war with russia, then in the end, they too will respect the real red lot. we have to take

a very short break right now, but we will be back to the discussion in just a few moments stage and ah ah ah russia, this class of car was discontinued more than 20 years ago. even though they more than well. so in the world, the model sort of can you so if you put those of the ship, the old book, just important purchase, it took 5 years to close the gun up on the world car industry from the drawing board to the 1st finished model escapes usa we'll move over a show. the excellent tools. can you deal luca political, more food motions much more food?

well, we'll shoot for shift almost a 1000000000 lucas cookie with whistle live with the most villas to deal with marshall with ah, welcome back to world the park with on the thought, leavin senior fellow at the quincy institute for responsible state craft in washington to see dr. levy and we started this discussion with the western policy of garrison and i heard you say that, you know, part of the problem is the western and the willingness or in the ability to comprehend and deal with complexity. this short

h o for both analytical and intellectual scope and branch. is that a problem only with afghan sounds portfolio or is it the more of a feature of the western policy in general when it comes to international affairs? i think it's a wider feature. i mean, much of the presentation of russia in the west and i'm sorry to say union academia and think tanks as well as in the media is pure caricature. it's, it's, it's, it's, it has no real basis in reality at all. and it's also, of course, laced with hatred by now, as i have to say, of course, as well, that's true of many russians on the other side. to be honest with you, i think. and we are recording this interview on the sidelines of deval dice. where am i? i think the discussion of the west here in russia is far more measured simply because i think the russians have gotten their frustrations out already. i mean, at this point, many of them are simply fatigued with the unpredictability of the problems that

keep piling up. i think, at least in this part of the world, there is a realization that they need to be sold before it gets well, it's been that i have a real russian. there are, of course, very sensible russian unless and you're quite right. i mean, you, you, you sense this just exhaustion with western illusions and illusions, or deliberate stances, because i mentioned psychology before and we know from psychology that everything exists for a reason. if you know, certain narrative is being prepared, you know, perpetuated. that means that it serves certain goals, and yes, i mean, it would be a mistake to underestimate the sheer ignorance by none of you know, so many policy makers in the west president biden has access to the most renowned and the most experienced folks in foreign policy. i mean, compared to trump, at least he has a very large pool of not only, you know, a condemning,

but also practitioners of foreign policy. and i use a sure the because i mean, some of he in the recent moves of the blood and administration they, they seem to be quite sensible. i have heard a lot of people in moscow to compliment joe biden on, on the difficulty of his decision to withdraw from a dentist. and so he seems to be a little bit more sensible than sofi credits. i know true. and, you know, those are highly intelligent people in washington and some highly aware ones, but the problem is that you get these narratives know, well, it's what they call narratives every else in the world called prejudices. but once a, you know, a particular mindset has got a grip on the western establishment in the u. s. establishment. then even, you know, the people who don't agree with this and who know better,

but who value their career will go along with it. and unfortunately, i mean, well, not just with regard to russia, but we've got to iran now as well with regard to china. you have these universal narratives, compose partly of prejudice, partly of ignorance, partly of cowardice which are very difficult to fundamentally, to shift over the last couple of days. i've been re reading some of the articles by a secretary of state colin powell who passed away a couple of days ago. and he said the proper leader should surround himself or herself by people who are serious about their job, but not about themselves. and, you know, he was very strong and very vocal against that kind of opportunities. and do you think that's that's empty rhetoric reducing, there was a time when institutionally,

the interests of the state of the state craft could have been put ahead of people's . we all have, you know, career orientations, but i think when you are in a position of power, any moral person would consider, you know, the choice between you and your country at the end of the day. but you know it's, it's very difficult as i say when, when you have the overwhelming majority of the establishment, the media, the think tanks in what is being called the blog in washington. regret it, swallows people it ingest for them. it does take considerable moral courage to stand out against that and a willingness to sacrifice your career. since i mentioned the. busy secretary powell, he's the moral estimate, didn't prevent him from facilitating be the war in iraq, which contributed a great deal to the well being of the us military industrial complex. the explicit rationale of the biden's administration of withdrawing from garrison

is to focus on china and russia. do you think those 2 areas of rivalry are they promising? as far as the military industrial complex is concerned, enormously press the military. well, you see the military industrial complex. never, rarely like the war on terror. much because conference, insurgency, it's closely expensive, but it's expensive in terms of unit aid to the afghan state, in terms of, you know, pensions but, but it's not the big ticket items. if you're in the military industrial complex, what you really want is more battleships, more aircraft carriers, more f, 30 fives, or whatever they are, because they are much, much, much, much more expensive. but one would think that the americans, they already has enough of those toys. i mean, big choice. well, but you see the,

the, the main point is that, you know, back under all the way until the 1970s that america had basically a state lead in a program of industrial technological development unit. and that was unit for from 2nd world war up to reagan, that was accepted by republican presidents as well. then you got this reagan stature out for you know, free market reaction against the state road in the economy. but at the same time, there is a recognition that america has gone, investing in the high tech industries and tried to maintain high tech jobs. thought as america have, it has a state industrial program that they can't tell it's name. it's called the military industrial complex. but you see it supports huge numbers of jobs. it pulls enormous amounts of money into technological development of an appallingly wasteful

kind. but without it, they would basically be no state american states board for technological development at all. now one of the major differences between this as far as i'm concerned between the russian and chinese they craft and the american statecraft is this availability or integration of the historical thinking into the, the whole process. because both the russians and the chinese, perhaps they have more historical grievances, but they, they, they have a longer view of history. the americans historically have sure if you start go member in the pun intended, here is a changing on under by them, given his age and given how long he has been in, in politics. i mean, the, one of the benefits of his age would be that, you know, he remembers different epochs to some extent. but, you know, washington is a very shaping experience and he has spent his entire life in

washington. and i think, you know, if you look at unit biden's now, you know, idea of this lead world league of democracies and america. it's the same old thing . and of course, it's, it has very close analogies to, to, to communism it is, you know, america leading the world to a future paradise of future and state. and that is so deeply embedded in american political culture and in the europe in union as well to a considerable extent that it's, it is very, it isn't fundamentally shifted by experience unit with, for you to thought the americans that complete the american failure, enough canister, would have led to a sort of a deep intellectual thinking about, you know, is the marker, is liberal democracy, the universal answer. you know, what are the real challenges we're facing in different parts of the world?

but you wrote recently that like in its competition with the years ceasar, the superiority of the western system of the western model to the chinese. one is not obvious to everybody around the world and the sort of the outcome of this rebel reveal depend more on the domestic reforms, domestic democratic reforms, rather than efforts to contain china. i mean, we have seen and have heard a lot about the latter. have you seen the former, the real practical efforts to remake the democratic system so that it's more agile and more efficient in meeting the needs of the american populace? well, yes, i mean, i think the bug new ministration genuinely is trying to do that with the question is whether the american political system will allow him to do this because was the same with a bomb. his health care package. by the time you had handed out favors to all the

lobby groups behind the democratic party. by the time you watered down the project, so as not to lose moderate democratic support and you know, trying hopelessly to get republicans people. the whole thing was a complete shambles. i mean, that is what, what is risked in biden's package as well, but also quite simply, he met, he just may not get most of it because he, we will not get the, the support of the senate. he will and of course that's also because he's, he can't get the support to some of his and senators, what you learn about the us administrations. and it's one reason i think why they do me concentrate so much on foreign affairs where they can look strong and magnetism. is america has become a very difficult place to govern. it is very, very difficult to introduce really reformist measures in america any more. and partly because ultimately everything goes up to the supreme court,

which is now clause dominated by the republicans and in just a few phrases. given that you are work for an institution of such an ambitious title, an institute for responsible statecraft. what do you count as a responsible faith craft? especially in the american context, prudence, prudence, caution, concentration on domestic reform, domestic strength of the united states and other attempts, no defense or real american and west european interests. but fairly narrow liam carefully define and also, i mean above all speaking as a realist, a real study of what are your own vital interests and what are the vital interests other major countries and whenever possible do not

challenge the vital interests of other major countries. because that way, like catastrophe, i guess that could work for russia as well. so well, dr. live and thank you very much for your time. has been great pleasure talking to you. thank you so much and thank you for watching hope to see you again next week. on well to part, ah with mm ah, if you want something done, right, do it yourself, use the acronym d i y i e,

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