the quinta institute for responsible safe process in washington to see dr. layman is great to talk to you. thank you very much for finding the time. now i'm sure that the closing of the in either lays in office in moscow and rushes mission to brussels, didn't come as big of a surprise to you. there weren't functioning any way. but i think there's something noteworthy about the 2 sides, not even trying to keep up appearances anymore. what do you think? yes, i mean, it's another step downwards. and it also illustrates the absence of coordinated thinking in washington because clearly this nature decision would not have been taken without the agreement of washington. the biden administration at the moment seems to be anxious to reduce tension with russia, hence the visit of newland to moscow. and the fairly cool reception of cell and sky in, in washington. but on the other hand, they now go along with this,

the complete end of relations with nato. which of course, on the russian side was response to the expulsion by nato of alleged russian agents . but you also get the general austin eunice saying that some ukraine in georgia are going to be members of nature one day, which by the way, very few people in private touch. well, leave any. you mentioned a lot of things that need, i'm packing. so let's take them one by one. i want to start with this silent treatment metaphor because i'm a psychology both and in couples counseling, this kind of silence rather than loud fights are considered a major sign of breaking up. i wonder when it comes to the relationship, very uneasy relationship between russian nature. do you think we have seen the worst already or the real break up is? is yet to come. well, i hope we've seen the worst, but, you know, the,

the most dangerous aspect of this breaches that you know, you have nato ships and planes wandering around in the baltic in the black sea. there is always the risk of an accidental condition, not one that i the desired but you know, when you have war planes operating at high speeds around each other as happened. you know, with a child with this america, that's my plane over china 20 years ago. there is the, there is always the possibility of an accident which will then lead to a drastic deterioration of relation. and that's why i think it's so confusing to observe like myself, because of the, as you mentioned, direct communication between moscow and washington not only existed that i think it has actually intensified, ended, abide in administration. some people would suggest that the moscow and washington's poses a more aligned now, then let's say 3 years ago under trump. why do you think washington seems to be

preferring a direct contact with moscow without necessarily going circles through brussels? well, i mean, let's, let's face it in washington as always, treated brussels with the state. brussels is that to take american orders, right. it's, it's a useful client organize. ok, why is it no longer useful to wash it? i mean, it is still useful, but you know, and america is very anxious if you, you know, if you look at stilton bergs, ledger speech that trying to get nato to become part of the confrontation with china. but i think ups and time if washington at the moment does want to relax tension, some logic with russia. then of course, nature is not such a huge useful organization because nature has been the most provocative western organization. so russia is, can you are interpreting that as a sign of actually reaching out to moscow?

no. but because, as i say, i fear that american policy is to uncoordinated for that. partly because you have so many domestic pressures, every american administration is always looking over it shoulder at what the american media will say, what people in congress will say, what people within the democratic party will say. and especially of course, you know, after afghanistan on the one hand, the biden administration does want to reduce american commitments elsewhere to really concentrate on china. but at the same time, of course, the withdrawal withdraw from afghanistan and the collapse of the african states has created this impression of american weakness. so on the other hand, biden has to give the continued appearance of toughness and learning and international affairs. now, moscow has long considered nader obsolete,

and accused it of playing up russia's threat in order to justify its existence. this closing of direct communication while maintaining bilateral context, both between moscow and washington in between moscow and the native partners. isn't that supporting russia's thesis that nader has? i'll leave long out least its purpose. yeah. i mean, it does, but nature, you have to understand means different things to different people. i mean, in poland the baltic states the resume. nope. sincere paranoia i regards because large and crazy. but unix you can be crazy and sincere at the same time. you know, within many native structures it is, as you say, i think a much more cynical calculation about basically the need to unit the need for enemies. so as to preserve nature, as an organization, laughed all in the look since the end of the code will look at all the different

roles that nato has sort defined for itself. it's failed that every one by the way . but clearly you have, you know, not just within the, within the nato operators, but what one has one stand is that the west europeans, the germans in particular, but all the others as well. absolutely terrified of being left alone. well, and actually i think the recent withdrawal from garrison has clearly demonstrated that the american, and frankly native security blanket has very big holes in it, or sometimes not even available when it's needed the most. do you think this very vivid example will change if not the rhetoric, the public rhetoric of nater with regards to russia, but some internal processes? a bitch, but the fear was always there of america again going home. and of course, you know, when she exaggerate important ref kennestone,

america withdrew from vietnam without withdrawing from europe. but the fear is always there and you know that that is why the west europeans claim to nato in this way. frankly, how much the americans kick the you know, what happened to france with the australian suffering due. but still, it is, the calculation of the french eats that they cannot do without america. now, at the core of russia needs attentions, lies. most concerned about major's expansion towards his borders. not only through formal acceptance of new members, but also through some sort of informal corporation, most notably with ukraine in georgia. and i would suppose that now when native feels certain weakness with the american, leaving them in such your disregarding fashion, there will be some need for postering. would you expect that to come come up again

with that you know, more courting of georgia and ukraine and perhaps even more pride practical steps in trying to draw them closer in people. i think we've seen that with general lloyd austin statements, you know, those are just statements at this point and wish before but will yes, but i mean, you know, they restate the commitment i don't think that the biden administration wants at the moment to, to actually increase those commitments in practice because after all, it means this is absolutely basic geo politics, if you're facing at least as uses the need for vastly increased commitments in asia against china. well, it really does not make sense to increase your commitments elsewhere if it's not necessary. so as you say, i think the, the desire is to continue the rhetoric of,

for georgia and ukraine, but not actually to, to try to push, you know, to, to push this through the forward. i regard, further, ne to extension is dead, frankly. because after all, nature membership, the children, ukraine, employees, native support for those 2 countries in that territory, disputes with russia. well, you know, i mean that causes, di, pang science in western european countries. and by the way, i mean under the surf, it's among a good many people in america to nader member states last 1140 for service members and have got us that which compared to the countless agen civilians. and i think to roughly 2 and a half 1000 american troops is a relatively small number. i think you don't even hear it being discussed in britain. britain last proportionately more troops in afghanistan than the americans

. but if the mayor is indeed serious about standing out to the so called the russian aggression that would involve potentially involve a much bigger loss of life. do you think people, when the native politicians, when they talk about, you know, being tough with russia, do they keep that, you know, loss of life aspect in mind all the time. you have to understand that so much of this nato stuff is theatrical. it's purely theatrical nature did not fight for georgia in 2008 it until planned to fight for georgia. that was not the slightest consideration of f, a fighting for georgia. and of course, it didn't fight to ukraine in 2014 either. and there is absolutely no intention anywhere in western europe to send a single. so dot shore, danish or german or french soldier, to fight in ukraine. in

a way is just the safe way of postering and externalizing, you know, problems in russia cause the nemesis juanita. well, i mean, there is real fear there as well. you know, genuine paranoia as i say. but there is, yes. i mean there is also a great deal of, you know, the convenient out of the convenient enemy. i have a formula that this, i say that nato will never actually defend any we're russia might attack. and russia will never attack any word that nato might defend. because you know, on the other hand, i regard unit is stuffy region in the west by a russian threat to invade the baltic states or, or pose absolutely nonsense. in crenan, georgia, that's a different matter with the various schools that are ongoing frozen conflict. but now, this notion of red lines is key for both russia and nader. and i

think, especially the russian level, prison pitching has committed the country to both flexibility and firmness in defining in defending those lines, which i think is a very significant ambition. and if i were one of the nader commanders, i would want to challenge that. do you think this high things game will play out somehow in the near future? do you think nader will try to sort of test those red lines as the kremlin draws them? well, symbolically, you know, like the visits of that parish warship destroyer to the black sea when they sample, that is not the real danger. but that's what i mean symbolically. they will go on testing them and making the point. but i mean there is no desire. what about the russians do think for the russians, it's also a symbolic issue or well, the thing was, on the nature side,

there is only one real red line in the sense of a line that if crossed will lead to war. and that is an attack on the nature member, because then there is a legal obligation, a treaty obligation to fight. so unit if to a repetition in lapse of well of what happened in ukraine, then it will be very, very dangerous. indeed. but once again, rusher i think the russian government understands that very well and has no such intention. and on, as i say on the native saw it. if in fact, nobody wants to risk actual whole with russia, then in the end they too will respect the real red loggins. we have to take a very short break right now, but we will be back to the discussion in just a few moments statement. ah

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welcome back to all the parts with an authority leave, an senior fellow at the quincy institute for responsible, said croft in washington to see doctor leavin. and we started this discussion with the western policy and of garrison. and i heard you say that in a part of the problem is the western and the willingness or in the ability to comprehend and deal with complexity. this shortage or for both analytical and intellectual scope and breadth. is that a problem only with afghan sounds portfolio or is it the more of a feature of the western policy in general when it comes to international affairs? i think it's a wider feature. i mean, much of the presentation of russia in the west and i'm sorry to say union academia and think tanks as well as in the media is pure caricature. it's, it's, it's, it has no real basis in reality at all. and it's also, of course, laced with hatred by now, as i have to say, of course, as well,

that's true of many russians on the other side. to be honest with you, i think. and we are recording this interview on the sidelines of deval dice. where am i? i think the discussion of, of the west here in russia is far more measured simply because i think the russians have gotten their frustrations out already. i mean, at this point, many of them are simply fatigued with the unpredictability of the problems that keep piling up. i think at least in this part of the world, there is a realization that they need to be sold before it gets well, it happened that i have a real rush and there are, of course, very sensible russian analysts and you're quite right. i mean, you sense this just exhaustion with western illusions and illusions, or deliberate stances, because i mentioned psychology before and we know from psychology that everything exists for a reason. if you know, certain narrative is being purpose perpetuated. that means that it serves certain

goals, and yes, i mean, it would be a mistake to underestimate the sheer ignorance by of unit. so many policymakers in the west, president biden has access to the most renowned and the most experienced folks in foreign policy. i mean, compared to trump, at least he has a very large pool of not only, you know, a condemning, but also practitioners of foreign policy. and i use a sure the because i mean, some of he in the recent moves of the blood and administration they, they seem to be quite sensible. i have heard a lot of people in moscow to compliment joe biden on, on the difficulty of his decision to withdraw from against. and so he seems to be a little bit more sensible than some of your credit. no true. and also highly intelligent people, washington and some highly aware ones. but the problem is that you get these

narratives know, well, it's what they call marriages every else in the world called prejudices. but once a, you know, a particular mindset has got a grip on the west mismanagement or in the u. s. establishment. then even, you know, the people who don't agree with this and who know better, but who value their career will go along with it. and unfortunately, i mean what, but just with regard to russia, but we've got to iran now as well with regard to china, you have these universal narratives, compose partly of prejudice, partly of ignorance, partly of cowardice, which are very difficult to fundamentally, to shift over the last couple of days i've been re reading some of the articles by secretary of state colin powell who passed away a couple of days ago. and he said the proper leader should surround himself

or herself by people who are serious about their jobs, but not about themselves. and, you know, he was very strong and very vocal against that kind of opportunities. and do you think that's that's empty rhetoric reducing, there was a time when institutionally, the interests of the state of the state craft could have been put ahead of people's . we all have, you know, career orientations, but i think when you are in the position of power, any moral person would consider, you know, the choice between you and your country at the end of the day. but you know it's, it's very difficult as i say when, when you have the overwhelming majority of the establishment, the media, the think tanks in what is being called the blog in washington booklet. it swallows people it ingest the, it does take considerable moral courage to stand out against that and a willingness to sacrifice your career. since i mentioned the secretary powell,

he's the moral stems, didn't prevent him from facilitating the, the war in iraq, which contributed a great deal to the well being of the us military industrial complex. the explicit rationale of the biden's administration of withdrawing from i've gotten them is to focus on china and russia. do you think those 2 areas of rivalry are they promising? as far as the military industrial complex is concerned, enormously press the military. well, you see the military industrial complex. never really like the war on terror. much because conference, insurgency, it's closely expensive, but it's expensive in terms of unit aid to the afghan state in terms of, you know, pensions but, but. ready it's not the big ticket items. if you're in the military industrial

complex, what you really want is the battleships more aircraft carriers, more f, 30 fives, or whatever they are, because they are much, much, much, much more expensive. but one would think that the americans, they've already has enough of those toys. i mean, big choice. well, but you see the, the, the main point is that, you know, back under all the way until the 1970 is that america had basically a state lead in a program of industrial technological development unit. and that was unit for from 2nd world war up to reagan, that was accepted by republican presidents as well. then you got this, reagan stature tra, you know, free market reaction against the state road in the economy. but at the same time, there is a, a recognition that america has gone, investing in high tech industries and tried to maintain high tech jobs. so what is

america have it has a state industrial program that can't tell it's name. it's called the military industrial complex. but you see it supports huge numbers of jobs. it pulls enormous amounts of money into technological development of an appallingly wasteful kind. but without it there would basically be no state american state support for technological development at hold. now one of the major differences between this as far as i'm concerned between the russian and chinese they craft and the american statecraft is this availability or integration of the historical thinking into the, the whole process. because both the russians and chinese, perhaps they have more historical grievances, but they, they, they have a longer view of history. the americans historically have sure if you started go

memory in the pun intended, here is a changing on under by them, given his age and given how long he has been in, in politics. i mean, the, one of the benefits of his age would be that, you know, he remembers the different epochs to some extent. but, you know, washington is a very shaping experience and he has spent his entire life in washington. and i think, you know, if you look at unit biden's now, you know, idea of this lead world league of democracies and america. it's the same old thing . and of course, it's, it has very close analogies to, to, to communism it is, you know, america leading the world to a future paradise, the future and state. and that is so deeply embedded in american political culture and in the europe in union as well to a considerable extent that it's, it is very,

it isn't fundamentally shifted by experience unit with our full euro thought the americans, the complete american failure, enough janice done, would have led to a sort of a deep intellectual thinking about, you know, is democracy is liberal democracy, the universal answer. you know, what are the real challenges we're facing in different boxes? well, but you wrote recently that i like in is competition with the years ceasar, the superiority of the western system of the western model to the chinese. one is not obvious to everybody around the world and the sort of the outcome of this rebel reveal depend more on the domestic reforms, domestic democratic reforms, rather than efforts to contain china. i mean, we have seen and have heard a lot about the latter. have you seen the former, the real practical efforts to remake the democratic system so that it's more an agile and more efficient than meeting the needs of the american populace?

well, yes, i mean, i think the bug, no ministration genuinely is trying to do that. but the question is whether the american political system will allow him to do this because was the same with a bomb. his health care package, by the time you had handed out favors to all the lobby groups behind the democratic party. by the time you watered down the project, so as not to lose motor, a democratic support and you know, trying hopelessly to get republican support. the whole thing was a complete shambles. i mean, that is what, what is risked in biden's package as well, but also quite simply him, he just may not get most of it because he, we will not get the, the support of the senate. he will, and of course that's also because he's, he can't get the support to some of his and senators, what you learn about the west ministrations. and it's one reason i think

why they do concentrate so much on foreign affairs where they can look strong and magnetism. is america has become a very difficult place to govern. it is very, very difficult to introduce really reformist measures in america anymore. and partly because ultimately everything goes up to the supreme court, which is now close dominated by the republicans and in just a few phrases. given that you are work for an institution of such an ambitious title, an institute for responsible statecraft. what do you count as responsible, statecraft, especially in the american context. prudence, prudence, caution, concentration on domestic reform, domestic strength of the united states, and other attempts in defense of real american and west european interests. but fairly narrow liam carefully

defined. and also, i mean above all speaking as a realist, a real study of what are your own vital interests and what are the vital interests of other major countries and whenever possible, do not challenge the vital interests of other major countries. because that way lies catastrophe. i guess that could work for russia as well. so well, dr. 11, thank you very much for your time. has been great pleasure talking to you. thank you so much and thank you for watching hope to see you again next week on well to part. ah

ah so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have a tree that even foundation let it be an arms race, this on offensive bearing dramatic development only personally and getting to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very critical time time to sit down and talk join me every 1st bit on the alex simon. sure. i'll be speaking to guess from the world politics. sport. business. i'm sure business. i'll see you then. ah.

hi o. so they say show it's the 2nd day of the g. 20 summit in rome, but willed leaders of back to 15 percent global minimum corporate tax coming up live report. we look at why not everyone's happy with that announcement bo and in some of the news stories that shake the week, the u. k. 's ambulance service warning of an unprecedented crisis ahead coming up this winter, as the army is put on standby to help cope with coven cases, hadn't the winter flu season. we're from a doctor on the front line. around 5700000 people on waiting lists with alienate chests, crescent beach, se probably go to get worse before it gets better. but supported the julian sands, including rock legend, roger waters demand justice following a us extradition appeal hearing, which is yet to deliver 3rd.