oh, dares sinks ah, we dare to ask ah, with me. hello, welcome to wells apart. there were never on friendly terms, but there were times when russian native managed to accommodate each other's security concerns and even do something together. most notably during the early stages of the us presence in afghanistan and the well, they heard the american patrol from kabul seems to necessitate more coordination between this an easy do. thou,

formal talking lines will be separate. come november. what does these silent treatment mean for the region and for the world full to discuss that now joined by anatole leave and senior fellow, add the quincy institute for responsible safe craft in washington to see dr. lehman is great to talk to thank you very much for finding the time i look. now. i'm sure that the closing of the nato lays in the office in moscow and rushes mission to brussels. didn't come as big of a surprise to you. there weren't functioning any way, but i think there is something noteworthy about the 2 sides, not even trying to keep up appearances anymore. what do you think? yes, i mean, it's another step downwards. and it also illustrates the absence of coordinated thinking in washington because clearly this nature decision would not have been taken without the agreement of washington. the biden administration at the moment seems to be anxious to reduce tension with russia,

hence the visit of newland to moscow. and the fairly cool reception of cell and sky in, in washington. but on the other hand, they now go along with this, the complete end of relations with nato. which of course, on the russian side was response to the expulsion by nato of alleged russian agents . but you also get the general austin eunice saying that some ukraine in georgia are going to be members of nature one day, which by the way, very few people in private touch. well, leave any. you mentioned a lot of things that need i'm packing. so let's take them one by one. i want to start with this silent treatment metaphor because i'm a psychology both and in couples counseling, this kind of silence rather than loud fights are considered a major sign of breaking up. i wonder when it comes to the relationship,

very uneasy relationship between russia and need to do you think we have seen the worst already, or the real break up is, is yet to come. well, i hope we've seen the worse, but, you know, the, the most dangerous aspect of this breaches that you know, you have nieto ships and planes wandering around in the baltic in the black sea. there is always the risk of an accidental condition, not one that i the desired but you know, when you have war planes operating at high speeds around each other as happened. you know, with a child with this american over china 20 years ago. there is the, there is always the possibility of an accident which will then lead to a drastic deterioration of relation. and that's why i think it's so confusing to observers like myself because of the as you mentioned, direct communication between moscow and washington not only existed that i think it

has actually intensified, ended, abide in the ministration. some people would suggest that the moscow and washington poses a more aligned now then let's say 3 years ago under trump. why do you think washington seems to be preferring a direct contact with moscow without necessarily going circles through brussels? well, i mean, let's, let's face it in washington as always, treated brussels with this state. brussel does that to take american orders? right. it's, it's a useful client organize. ok, why is it no longer useful to wash it? i mean, it is still useful, but you know, and america is very anxious if you, you know, if you look at stoughton bergs ledger speech that trying to get nato to become part of the confrontation with china. but i think ups and time if washington at the moment does want to relax tension,

some logic with russia. then of course, nature is not such a huge useful organization because mean in nature has been the most provocative western organizations. so russia is cuz you're interpreting that as a sign of actually reaching out to moscow. no. but because as i say, i fear that american policy is to uncoordinated for that. partly because you have so many domestic pressures, every american administration is always looking over it shoulder at what the american media will say, what people in congress will say, what people within the democratic party will say. and especially of course, you know, after afghanistan on the one hand, the biden administration does want to reduce american commitments elsewhere to really concentrate on china. but at the same time, of course, the withdraw withdrawn from afghanistan and the collapse of the african states has

created this impression of american weakness. on the other hand, biden has to give the continued appearance of toughness and learning and international affairs. now, moscow has long considered nader obsolete, and accused it of playing up russia's threat in order to justify its existence. this closing of direct communication while maintaining bilateral context, both between moscow and washington in between moscow and the native partners. isn't that supporting russia's thesis that nader has out? leave long out least its purpose. yeah, i mean, it does, but nature, you have to understand means different things to different people. i mean, in poland the baltic states the resume. nope. sincere paranoia. i regard as large and crazy, but unix you can be crazy and sincere at the same time. you know, within many native structures it is, as you say, i think

a much more cynical calculation about basically the need to unit the need for enemies. so as to preserve nature as an organization, after all, and look, since the end of the code will look at all the different roles that nissan has sort defined for it. so it's failed that every one by the way. but clearly you have, you know, not just within the unit within the nato operators, but water has one standard that the west europeans, the germans in particular, but all the others as well. absolutely terrified of being left alone. well, and actually i think the recent withdrawal from garrison has clearly demonstrated that the american, and frankly native security blanket has very b calls in it, or sometimes not even available when it's needed the most. do you think this very vivid example will change if not the rhetoric, the public rhetoric of nater with regards to russia, but some internal processes?

a bitch, but the fear was always there of america again going home. and of course, you know, when she exaggerate the importance of afghans on america, withdrew from vietnam without withdrawing from europe. but the fear is always there. and you know that that is why the west europeans claim to nato in this way, frankly, how much the americans kick the, you know, what happened to france with the australian suffering due. but still, it is, the calculation of the french eats that they cannot do without america. now, at the core of russia, nature, attentions lies. most concerned about major's expansion towards this borders. not only through formal acceptance of new members, but also through some sort of informal corporation, most notably with feel certain weakness with the americans,

leaving them in such your disregarding fashion. there will be some need for postering. would you expect that to come? come up again with that you know, more courting of georgia and ukraine and perhaps even more pride practical steps in trying to draw them closer in people. i think we've seen that with general lloyd austin statements, you know, those are just statements at this point and wish before but will yes, but i mean, you know, they restate the commitment i don't think that the biden administration wants at the moment to, to actually increase those commitments in practice because after all, and in this, this is absolutely basic geo politics, if you're facing at least as uses the need for vastly increased commitments in asia against china. well,

it really does not make sense to increase your commitments elsewhere if it's not necessary. so as you say, i think the, the desire is to continue the rhetoric of support for georgia and ukraine. but not actually to, to try to push, you know, to push this further forward. i regard further, ne to expansion is dead, frankly. because after all, nature membership, the children, ukraine, employees, native support for those 2 countries in their territorial disputes with russia. well, i mean that causes di, pang science in western european countries. and by the way, i mean under the surf, it's among the good many people in america to nader member states. last $1140.00 for service members and get us out of which compared to the countless agen civilians. and i think to roughly 2 and a half 1000 american troops is

a relatively small number. i think you don't even hear it being discussed in britain. britain last proportionately more troops in afghanistan than the americans . but if the mayor is indeed serious about standing up to the so called, the russian aggression that would involve potential involves a much bigger loss of life. do you think people, when the native politicians, when they talk about, you know, being tough with russia, do they keep that, you know, loss of life aspect in mind all the time. you have to understand that so much of this nato stuff is theatrical. it's purely theatrical nato did not fight for georgia in 2008 it until planned to fight for georgia. there was not the slightest consideration of ever fighting for georgia and of course, it didn't fight to ukraine in 2014 either. and there is absolutely no intention anywhere in western europe to send a single. so dot shore,

danish or german or french soldier, to fight in ukraine in a way is just the safe way of postering and externalizing, you know, problems in russia. cosy, nemesis, juanita? well, i mean, there is real fear there as well. you know, genuine paranoia as i say. but there is, yes. i mean there is also a great deal of, you know, the convenient out the convenient enemy. i have a formula that this, i say that nato will never actually defend any work that russia might attack. and russia will never attack any work that nato might defend. because, you know, on the other hand, i regard unit a stuffy region in the west about a russian threat to invade the baltic states or does absolutely nonsense in crane and georgia. that's a different, that's very close. there are ongoing frozen conflict. but now,

this notion of red lines is key for both russia and neighbor. and i think especially the russian level prison pushing has committed the country to both flexibility and firmness in defining in defending those lines, which i think is a very significant ambition. and if i were one of the nader commanders, i would want to challenge that. do you think this high stakes game will play out somehow in the near future? do you think nader will try to sort of test those red lines as the kremlin draws them? well, symbolically, you know, like the visits of that parish warship destroyer to the black sea when they sample, that is not the real danger. know, but that's what i mean symbolically, they will go on testing them and making the point. but i mean, there is no desire. what about the russians do thing for the russians?

it's also a symbolic issue or, well, the thing was on the nato saw there is only one real red line in the sense of a line that if crossed will lead to war. and that is an attack on the nature member . because then there is a legal obligation, a treaty obligation to fight. so you know, if to a repetition, in lapse of both of what happened in ukraine, then it would be very, very dangerous. indeed. but once again, rusher i think the russian government understands that very well and has no such intention and on, as i say on the nature side. if in fact, nobody wants to risk actual with russia, then in the end they too will respect the real red lot. we have to

take a very short break right now, but we will be back to the discussion in just a few moments statement. ah he's got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy even foundation, let it be an arms race is on often very dramatic development only personally and getting to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very difficult time. time to sit down and talk with russia. this class of car was discontinued more than 20 years ago. even lost a more than a sort of can use up the flu proposal this year, dealing with just important factors. it took 5 years to close the gap on the world

car industry from the drawing board to the 1st finished model escapes issa will over certify, excellent. to prove to you dealing with my food, always from, from a small school lunch with for the homework. luca was correct, the 1st one was a pretty much it was the deal with marshall ah welcome back to the park with on a thought, leavin senior fellow at the quincy institute for responsible state craft in washington to see dr. levy. and we started this discussion with the policy of garrison and i heard you say that, you know, part of the problem is the western on the willingness or inability to comprehend

and deal with complexity. this shortage of both analytical and intellectual scope and branch. is that a problem only with the gang suns portfolio or is it the more of a feature of the western policy in general when it comes to international affairs? i think it's a way to feature much of the presentation of russia in the west and i'm sorry to say union academia and think tanks as well as in the media is to caricature, you know, it's, it's, it's a real basis in reality, a tool and it's also, of course, lace with hatred by now as i have to say, of course, as well though that's true when you russians on the other side to be honest with you, i think and we're recording this interview on the sidelines of deval dice. where am i? i think the discussion of, of the west here in russia is far more measured simply because i think the russians

have gotten their frustrations out already. i mean, at this point, many of them are simply fatigued with the unpredictability of the problems that keep piling up. i think at least in this part of the world, there is a realization that they need to be sold before it gets well, it's been that i have a real rush and there are, of course, very sensible russian analysts and you're quite right. i mean, you, you, you sense this just exhaustion with western illusions and illusions, or deliberate stances, because i mentioned psychology before, we know from psychology that everything exists for a reason. if you know, certain narrative is being perpetuated, that means that it serves certain goals. and yes, i mean, it would be a mistake to underestimate the sheer ignorance, bye, of eunice. many policymakers in the west president biden has access to the most renowned and the most experienced folks in foreign policy. i mean,

compared to trump, at least he has a very large pool of not only, you know, a condemning, but also practitioners of foreign policy. and i used to assure the, because i mean some of the recent moves of the blood and administration, they, they seem to be quite sensible. i have heard a lot of people in moscow to complement joe biden on, on the difficulty of his decision to withdraw from against. and so he seems to be a little bit more sensible than sofi credits. i know true and also highly intelligent people in washington and some highly aware ones. but the problem is that you get these narratives now. well, it's what they call marriages every else in the world called prejudices. but once a, you know, a particular mindset has got a grip on the western establishment or in the u. s. establishment. then even,

you know, the people who don't agree with this and who know better, but who value their careers will go along with it. and unfortunately, i mean, well, not just with regard to russia, but we've got to iran now as well with regard to china. you have these universal narratives, compose partly of prejudice, partly of ignorance, partly of cowardice which are very difficult to fundamentally, to shift over the last couple of days. i've been reading some of the articles by secretary of state colin powell who passed away a couple of days ago. and he said the proper leader should surround himself or herself by people who are serious about their jobs, but not about themselves. and you know, he was very strong and very vocal against that kind of opportunism. do you think that's? that's empty rhetoric reducing, there was a time when institutionally,

the interests of the state of the state craft could have been put ahead of people's . we all have, you know, career rotations, but i think when you're in the position of power, any moral person would consider, you know, the choice between you and your country at the end of the day. but you know it's, it's very difficult as i say when, when you have the overwhelming majority of the establishment, the media, the think tanks in what is being called the blog in washington. regret it, swallows people it ingest them. it does take considerable moral courage to stand out against that and a willingness to sacrifice your career. since i mentioned the secretary powell, he's the moral stones, didn't prevent him from facilitating be the war in iraq, which contributed a great deal to the well being of the us military industrial complex.

the explicit rationale of the biden's administration of withdrawing from garrison is to focus on china and russia. do you think those 2 areas of rivalry are they promising? as far as the military industrial complex is concerned, enormously press the military. well, you see the military industrial complex never rarely like the war on terror. much because conference, insurgency, it's closely expensive, but it's expensive in terms of unit aid to the afghan state in terms of, you know, pensions but, but. ready it's not the big ticket items. if you're in the military industrial complex, what you really want is more battle ships, more aircraft carriers, more f, 30 fives, or whatever they are, because they are much, much, much, much more expensive. but one would think that the americans, they already had enough of those toys. i mean, big choice. well, but you see the,

the, the main point is that, you know, back under all the way until the 19 seventy's that america had. basically, a state lead in a program of industrial, technological development, you know, and that was, you know, from 2nd world war up to reagan, that was accepted by republican presidents as well. then you got this reagan stature out for you know, free market reaction against the state road in the economy. but at the same time, there is a, a recognition that america has gone, investing in the high tech industries and tried to maintain high tech jobs towards america. it has a state industrial program that they can't tell it's name, it's called the military industrial complex. but you see it supports huge numbers of jobs. it pulls enormous amounts of money into technological development of an

appallingly wasteful kind. but without it, there would basically be no state american state support for technological development at all. now one of the major differences between this as far as i'm concerned between the russian and chinese state craft and the american statecraft is this availability or integration of the historical thinking into the, the whole process. because both the russians and the chinese, perhaps they have more historical grievances, but they, they, they have a longer view of history. the americans, historically had a short, historical memory and the pun intended, here is a changing on under, by them, given his age and given how long he has been in, in politics. i mean, the, one of the benefits of his age would be that, you know, he remembers different equals to some extent. but, you know, washington is

a very shaping experience and he has spent his entire life in washington. and i think, you know, if you look at unit biden's now, you know, idea of this lee world league of democracies and america. it's the same old thing. and of course, it's, it has very close analogies to, to, to communism it is, you know, america leading the world to a future paradise, the future and state. and that is so deeply embedded in american political culture and in the europe in union as well to a considerable extent that it's, it is very, it isn't fundamentally shifted by experience unit with, for you to thought the americans complete the american failure. enough ganawe's done, would have led to a sort of a deep intellectual thinking about, you know, is the marker, is liberal democracy, the universal answer. you know,

what are the real challenges we're facing in different parts of the world? but you wrote recently that alike in its competition with the years ceasar, the superiority of the western system of the western model to the child is one is not obvious to everybody around the world and the sort of the outcome i'm describing, rebuild depend more on the domestic reforms, the master democratic reforms, rather than efforts to contain china. i mean, we have seen and have heard a lot about the latter. have you seen the former, the real practical efforts to remake the democratic system so that it's more an agile and more efficient in meeting the needs of the american populace? well, yes, i mean, i think the bug new ministration genuinely is trying to do that. but the question is whether the american political system will allow him to do this because was the same with a bomb. his health care package,

by the time you had handed out favors to all the lobby groups behind the democratic party. by the time you watered down the project, so as not to lose moderate democratic support and you know, trying hopelessly to get republicans, people, the whole thing was a complete shambles. i mean, that is what, what is risked in biden's package as well, but also quite simply him, he just may not get most of it because he, we will not get the, the support of the senate. he will, and of course that's also because he's he can't get the support to some of his and senators. what you learn about the rested ministrations and it's one reason i think why they do concentrate so much on foreign affairs where they can look strong and magnetism is america has become a very difficult place to govern. it is very, very difficult to introduce really reformist measures in america

anymore. and partly because ultimately everything goes up to the supreme court, which is now close dominated by the republicans and in just a few phrases. given that you are work for an institution of such an ambitious title and institute for responsible statecraft. what do you count as a responsible faith craft? especially in the american context, prudence, prudence, caution, concentration on domestic reform, domestic strength of the united states, and other attempts in defense of real american and west european interests. but fairly narrow liam carefully defined. and also, i mean above all speaking as a realist, a real study of what are your own vital interests

and what are the vital interests of other major countries and whenever possible, do not challenge the vital interests of other major countries. because that way lies catastrophe. well, i guess that could work for russia as well, so well, dr. live and thank you very much for your time. has been great pleasure talking to you. thank you so much and thank you for watching hope to see you again next week on well to part. ah ah ah ah ah

ah, you 20 summit wraps up in rome with broad endorsement of a global corporate tax, the main achievement, but not everyone sees it that way. we look at why supportive enjoying massage, including the rock legend, roger waters demand justice following a u. s. extradition appeal hearing, which is yet to deliver the verdict. i'm so angry and i'm so bad, and i'm so disgusted with the united kingdom and an anti joe biden. song called, let's go brandon, with deleted from youtube for containing medical misinformation. however, it was quickly climbed up at the americas top. i itunes hip hop charge. ah.