you and bearers read over illegal immigration guess what men catch the higher cards . also, washington is again, increasing tensions within ukraine. is the by the ministration looking to score a foreign policy victory to deflect from crises at home. ah. you discuss these issues and more and joined by my guess, marcus, papa douglas and london, he's a historian analyst, an author of the book arrives when i see the return of russia to world politics. and here in moscow we have maxine, huge golf. he is director of the center for advanced american studies at moscow state institute of international relations, or gentleman cross talk rules and effect. that means you can jump anytime you want . and i always appreciate it. i know with marcus and london, well, the story with roots in poland is gaining attention and intensity by the way, about the legal immigration. now the,

what the us thing and particularly the polls is that these people are being dumped on to them. but the brussels is very hesitant for borders and not to speak of walls here. but more and more people coming to their room to saying these people are transiting here. there's something much more a play here. and i think it is. is that the local shank of the russian president? he's basically saying you want to resolve this issue. you have to talk to me, don't keep talking to says he doesn't want to talk about it is really, bill is, is forcing an issue for the european union to actually start recognizing that has legitimate interests here. because we've seen that as they don't want to have any kind of dialogue, your thoughts, markets go ahead. pizza, allow me to clarify a very important matter. there is only one migrant crisis go in,

and that is my thing crisis which isn't it is now caused by america, britain and france have in the stabilize both libya and syria through having supported islamist terrorists in both countries, which has resulted in well over 1000000 migrants ensure in europe, most of whom have not come from libya and syria, but turn into the tension on the polish russian. buddha, the g strategic dimensions to that are as follows. america and britain are attempting to manage civil unrest in delivers or it's historic. and i sort of name is lasha in the hope that fermenting civil unrest in the country will assist them in their quest to initiate a crew in bella, russia against president alexander, look back towards wrestler bell russia from moscow is all bits and place. it's

in the west open it, which would result in the western border of the russian federation from the old 60, to the black sea. being entirely encircled and close by countries which are in the west, all bits. that would be a tremendously dangerous situation for russia. now, was the chances of weston embellish occurring are negligible, none the less anything is possible. there is also another dimension to this america and britain on looking for a pretext to continue increase in nature's presence along the russian order. both soldiery and weaponry. i'm bye mention backed

russia, backed by russia, is attempting to stabilize the european union. be stabilized by allow in migrants, illegal migrants to enter europe. that says as a pretext for increasing mesa is presence in the east and what has happened? well, just in the last few days, pizza, british soldiers have been dispatched to poland to advise the polish government on how to secure its folder. well, that's quite lawful for a number of reasons, but one of them is this, that the british states doesn't see fit to dispatch a british soldiers to nobody, to defend britons, boulders against illegal migrants who are crossing, being those channel on a daily basis. indeed, only a few days ago, 1000 illegal migrants entered on one day alone.

yeah. the so tension between the european union and embarrass really shows the, the, the wanting immigration policy of the european union. because as marcus is pointed out, here is a process is basically just dropped the bone because, you know, they're not particularly happy with the holes in the 1st place right now for a lot of other internal union issues here. so it really kind of puts them in a bind and then we, when we have the p and union trying to communicate the rush of the communication, bear with the rush of things that are problem. it's your problem and look a shank and say, well let's talk but they don't want to. i mean it, it shows the weakness of the european union foreign policies, immigration policy, even leadership here because this can be resolved because we do have an example. my name is gall air on ok. i mean, they're willing to talk to turkey, not a member of the european union about legal immigration to talk because what are

they too proud? go ahead. right, well i think there are, there are 2 lessons to, to learn for the europe from the crisis and anything so far they have not been learning these lessons. one is if the parents are as concern as they should be about the security instability of the adjuster regions, north africa and the middle east. they perhaps should have stopped sourcing major decision making to the united states that then full spray to internal american domestic politics. right? and they should take matters into their own hands, which they're not doing as, as you just mentioned. and markers just show. so they're asking for more kind of american and british support to take these, you know, to solve this issue for them. and that's a problem in the long run. and the 2nd lesson, i think that they're not learning that they should be learning is that turning states into failed entities has long term consequences. so when,

when they were old, these interventions in syria, i've gotten on even iraq, i guess a huge number of these migrants and the polish bell, russian border, or iraqi purse. and you know what, what i think his mission in this discussion is how did the job on the polish bell, russian border, and why would they go there and the 1st place right there, not. you're in there. i think there is little if any discussion of what's going on in the iraqi kurdistan, why would people go to, to, to europe now and that these are serious questions that i think have not been rason brother, the aeroplanes keep looking for the, for factor in every single challenge that they face, and i don't think it's a long term solution markets with this issue with energy, their loans to, to appreciate in energy security, migration security. but, you know, at the same time, they say they have to demonize russia, but maybe the russian can figure it out. i mean, it's a very, we're trying to add

a lesson, broached foreign policy. and if you rightfully pointed out the you case, that's true. the whole and i mean this all started out because of military decision in the middle east. and now the best solution, this is central. what about just sitting down and say, how can we, we can negotiate the welfare of these people and the big around how they got there, why they got their presumably, presumably gentlemen, these quote unquote rescue, geez bought wayne tickets. so, i mean, these are well off refugee, i mean is, there's always, they're always looking for a land game, but we don't even know how these people are. go ahead. well, of course, if america, britain and the european union were to sincerely analyze the reasons for the migration crisis, then it was totally annihilate their reasons for having intervened in both libya and syria. so obviously they are not going to go down that pathway.

however, there is a very, very obvious reason play as to why our focus is on russia. it is because the russia of today is not the russia of the 19 ninety's. if flatten me, it was obvious yes. and if he was compliant to weston wishes to western demands, if he allowed russia to be dependent on the international monetary fund, then you would say a very different approach on the west. but of course, the reality is that under vladimir putin, not only has russia regained it, independence, which it lost. so a very great extent during the 1990s, because it was on and i, and met life supports machine. not only that, for them, it has returned russia as

a great power. and even for he has returned russia as a superpower. and of course, the americans look to russia as the only country which can truly challenge it's. it's hedge and want to go in the well, they do not look at china in the same way because they know that the chinese economy is dependent on the american economy. so china is not able to challenge russia in the same way. and as i said to moments ago, the situation on the polish russian odor is not about migrant, per se, is about russia. it is about finding another pretext to, to ferment further civil unrest by the marcia to demonize president lucas chicago, who in my estimation has done a very good job in keeping bell. russia very stable. ready countries since the end

of the soviet union and also it provides the west to continue be philip. it's a military presence in nato and in the black sea region, that is what the, the crux of the matter is concerning. the tension on the polish feller washing it is about nathan increase in its presence along the russian order. i think it was kind of like a logical thing to me. brussels is can't competence. the fact that there was gonna say no, they can say no. and then get away with them here. and because of that, they've taken options off the table. like i said, there's the air to one option. you might or might not find that practice, but it did resolve europe problem. ok. and, but they're not willing to accord the same kind of policy towards the very reasons that market says explain to us, go ahead, right. i agree, and i will also add to that perhaps that i think kind of

a me term challenge here is that, well, the rules may be kind of turn into what g p a r k is for china. you know, when you put too much pressure on kim and refusal kind of neat options for the oceans that may, that may play out. you know, north korea as a strategic leverage for china against regional rival, but also and beat pain in the neck. which i think if the current policies towards spell the risk continue, then russia would have to support to go on a number of things that may not would be in russia's own interest. but because you don't really have a better option than you have like it even longer problem on your hands. but also, as i mentioned before, if europeans kind of are playing a trick role here, you know, on, on the one hand they complain about their security. on the other hand, they refuse to make their own transformation from a payer to

a real player to a hard hard break will continue our discussion on some really to say, ah for an hour or so to be more efficient, quicker with our transactions. but with that comes a trade off, every device is a potential entry point for us here to attack any machine because it's an extension of traditional time. the defenders have always been one step behind the attackers with them. there's one called option in the offering. it's not a matter of, if it happens it's a matter of went oh,

is your media reflection of reality? in the world transformed what will make you feel safe? isolation for community. are you going the right way or are you being led somewhere? direct. what is true? what is great? in the world corrupted, you need to descend a join us in the depths or remain in the shallows. badges, financial survival died. when customers go buy, you reduce the price,

then l reduce a lower that's under cutting, but what's good for food market that's not good for the global economy. with the welcome at the cross type were all things are considered. i'm peter la bell. this is the home and just to remind you were discussing some real news. i can change gears, gentlemen maxime, let's talk about ukraine and i have this really bad feeling of deja vu all over again because we had in the spring tensions we say, very provocative rhetoric and even behavior. and then we seem to have a repeat

b u. s. administration, the by the ministration really is increased its interest and it's the same time mentioned within ukraine. here, what is the message they're sending because it's very confusing or maybe best. the whole point is to be open. ok to, to read a sense of unease, but of course that in itself creates more attention. and obviously the russians are watching very carefully about as i will stress over and over again from this is an intro ukraine problem. definitely trying to pull russia into it. your thoughts, my friend, go ahead. well, i think throughout its history, russia as a continental, our had to focus on 3 major fronts, you know, with the west east on goals. and now perhaps we'll keep an eye on china, but also in the south where the entire kind of central asia middle east direction.

so the idea that i think has been very strong in the west, in the us in particular that rushes and chinese alignment may pose a greater challenge and rushing that act as a force multiplier to china is i think is very strong. so one reason to invoke these ukraine cards, so to say, as many policymakers moscow believe is that, you know, that kind of keeps moscow distracted from the eastern front, with china in, from the southern frog with syria and all the middle east policy. and you've been very, very busy in the last week with ukraine. the 2nd thing, i think you mentioned the desert, who i even have with even more. i just kind of a dangerous. i mean this is not a board game or guy. sure. very, very 14000 people have been killed by the government in the don. this is not a board game. this is very sorry to interrupt people. is it isn't that is serious.

and then you know, the management, the talks about there's a who and i haven't even and other issue with august 2008. and i think that makes me very worried in the wake of war in georgia. music. right. and then the war in georgia and so south of santia, you know, a few couple of months before the 5 the war handle is a rice came to believe c. and you know, some say in private, she argued and a warrant suckers will against court who provoked and russia and stuff, but in public then they went and then, you know, provided security guarantees and stuff. so i think, you know, when talk to the american policy managers to visit key f. and then you know, you speak to people say, well, they actually, you know, you encourage you to focus on fighting corruption and stuff. but that's not what they say in public though. and they didn't talk about natal guarantees and security reassurance is all that kind of stuff. so that seems

a very dangerous message to authorities and then they go and escalate in the use of your brain. so that makes them very worried about prospects for what we may see in this crisis market. i'm really glad that i brought up for august 2008 because i see the scenario playing out again. you have this very public propaganda barrage, encouraging the ukrainians. there's a person named metro yarborough's who is a known figure even before the my don, the european union, a ultra nationalist, even some people describe him as a neo nazi i'm, he's, he's playing another key role in military thinking in kevin, his only goal is war is what is the goal is conflict. and when you have the secretary events in the united states, you know, going, giving them these out of boys and you know, where we got your back and, you know,

in your inter, go to our security. all the other, you know, boiler plate nonsense that nato is putting out on a daily basis. this creates a very, very dangerous situation because obviously it's a wag the dog situation that we could good way out here and there will be real consequences. go ahead, mark. i have to long describe that ukraine as rushes soft underbelly, because without a way, if russia has a ukraine on its border, which is also and which is in the west of it. then not only is that russia going to be weakened in europe, but it will be weakened in the world as a whole. and even worse than that, russian national security will be in peril. and of course, for nearly 8 years now, ukraine has been in the west all bit politically, economically,

militarily. also culturally, the west has integrated ukraine into it or bit. that is not to say, however, that russia doesn't have a leverage in ukraine because it most certainly does. so for example, millions of ukrainians, not just in the east of ukraine, not just in the south if you drink, but also in the center of ukraine, regard themselves as part of the russian. well, nonetheless, ukraine is in the west orbit. and america and britain, which of course of the heart and soul of nature, are intent on bring in the ukraine into its ranks. because a ukraine in the ranks of night. so would mean that russia is and so on its western border, it would mean that russian supremacy in the black sea region would be seriously

compromised. because even as we talk now, the americans are referred pushing the pools at odessa and also off in ukraine to accommodate american and british will shit. so what we see at the moment in the black sea region and in ukraine is a vs measure that the americans in the british are going to take. they now have ukraine in their orbits. they are going to do, if the thing they possibly can, with the exception of defending ukraine, militarily, they will do everything they can to ensure that ukraine remains in their presence. so one of the options to russia, well gosh, is options. she does have options in ukraine, and quite frankly, ukraine should never have been allowed to enter the west or beach in the 1st place . the dangers emanates at the end of 2013 in ukraine,

and for russia were very obvious, but that is under the bridge, so to speak. the only way that you crane can be saved is for russia, so you can clinical action. otherwise, the day will come when you crane and night. so people could see people very quickly . people, people could say that ukraine can only join night. so if the situation in the crime and the dumbass is result of, quite frankly here, could agree to read through in its own way by if forget about the crimea. if it gets about the for the blue and on it, which has lost. and then in that scenario, ukraine will be free to join night. so the way it all, by the way, folks, you know, it doesn't sound right when it comes out that when does it roll off? the b u. k and the united states are black. the pounds because they're not florida,

but they're, they're met same. i mean, the cynic in me tells me, is then kind of echoing, when you said, you mean given, when marcus had to say, but the united states to create a diplomatic crisis for rush over ukraine suits them just fine. ok. i mean, encourage the government, you have a military assault on what's called the don dance. russia will react, irrespective of the outcome, the usb. that is a victory, right? russia would be isolated in the west military action because ukraine would not win . i mean, it's a, it's a very cynical game because every bad outcome in washington is perceived is a good outcome. go ahead max. well, i think if i were to look at the situation from, from the western point, it makes sense to when you have to focus on, you know, rivalry with china about russia is, is, is feel a huge issue. you need to build kind of a new containment in

a way to contain russia in the black sea. and in the, in the, in this, in its border with ukraine is one option, obviously. and a big one. there is also, i think, an illusion of that you can lee, the court on board controlled escalation game with, with russia, where you supply your brain with certain weapons. and you maintain a certain degree of, you know, violence and escalation and intensity of the border with russia, and then hope you can still deter moscow against any hardcore option of retaliation . which i think what the united states has now been trying to do by also sending, you know, c, h, e, for birds to moscow, and kind of making all this warning signals against your own jack. but i think the red lines on the green have been told and repeated again and again, and what we're seeing now that they've been violating. and i think the entire situation is now being clean out again, around setting new rules and setting new stage for you know, the brain obviously was not happy with the mens get worse. we right is,

is the damping here. can see if the russia will buckle it will lay except a strategic peter, and i think all 3 of us would agree that that's not in the car, but then the reception then the west has a certain combination. the russians will give up. that's not going to happen and that's why i went on this program because i see this is a collision course. as i said, dasia all over again. i ranked, remind everyone during the spring intentions were very, very, to be are to the point where obviously a potential conflict was at hand here. then be the americans said they were going to send in ships into the black sea. then they decided not to and then for some reason the u. k. type will go there. i mean, obviously they didn't work. why did they think it's going to work now? go ahead. well, i hope it's not going to work. the moscow may also kind of get, you know, consider some, some new tactics,

perhaps also the ones that may include and use a force to reset the stage and to go earth crane to sign some new terms of agreement. and obviously i think 6 to renegotiate the main scores that it believes were not in it's in its interest, but i can't agree more with you. it's a dangerous, it's a dangerous trend towards a new collision course. i can finish up. whereas markets, well, of course, the chances in my opinion of a war between russia and america over ukraine or negligible, but the chances of an accidental or i'm very much alive and well. that's what we worry about here. this miscalculation need play a game of chicken. one side may decide to go through with that. and then when one side decides to go through with you both end up in it. okay. what we're hoping to avoid here. i'll get gentlemen, that's all the time we have the i want to thank my guess and mouse in london them.

i think our viewers for watching us here are the scenic, i'm remember, ah, a water around the try, a seal island in contention between canada and the united states. northern gulf, a main i suddenly become optimal for lots are our populations years exploded. one of the most valuable fisheries that ever existed. suddenly you had me and canadian fishermen in these waters at the same time jousting for position and tension or high violence is bound to happen. this is the last land border dispute between canada and the united states. it could be magnified to the point where there could be cost that would be significant to hope countries. border dispute don't go away. they discussed some things going to happen.

who are all driven by dreamers shaped interest in in there's things we dare to ask. oh well it shows seemed wrong when old rules just don't hold any new world. yes, to shape out disdain because of the african and engagement. it was the trail.

when so many find themselves worlds apart, we choose to look for common ground. with this ours headline stories a huge crowd of migrants move from their account, been beller. ruth, to the border. poland, braces for a possible breach with military reinforcements bought by water cannon police in the u. k. declare a taxi explosion outside a hospital in liverpool, on some day a terrorist incident for men are arrested in connection with the blast, which left one person dead and another injured and also had ah.