oh, well, come to so think of vision or is may so fish ever not set as 2021 jurors to a close fisheries, political scientists, economists, they're all competing and well guessing about what next ear has in store for us. well, today i talk to steve jacobson, chief investment officer at sax, a bank steve jacobson, chief investment officer at sack. so bank, great. have you with us. are you doing? all right, thank you. thanks for having me on. is our pleasure. so seeing every turn of the air, you come up with what you call outrageous predictions for the ear to come. first of all, tell me why make outrageous predictions? what's to it? is it purely in mind exercise or there is more to it? well, it all started 20 years ago and you have to remember 20 years ago, we didn't have a smartphone, we didn't have social media. so at the time the time around christmas was very slow from major and markets. so we had a lot of time. oh, i had the reset, hang on

a minute. why don't we do an exercise? we're just, you say is a mind game or way to look at the future. where we really try to provoke thinking with the reader. in a sense that everything we do as human being is finding patterns and thinking in lena terms, this exercise about being not leaner, but look at the exponential risks, games for exponential offsite. so over the last 20 years, this has become, by far, our most sought after publication. it's become sort of a, a global brand. and i know, but from, from going to russia a lot is very much inside the russian nature as well too. while in russia you always look for the downside, that's just the way you are like me almost but, but it's, it's a good exercise to think about small probabilities that if they do happen has a high impact on markets. so no, no, 2021 predictions came true. but then again,

that's why they're outrageous, right? these are things that are likely to happen even though they could. so you tell me, when i read about this, you know, potential black swan events and at the end of the day, there are so far out that there aren't likely to happen. why would i worry about the scenarios? and there's plenty to worry about this, these. why put more strain on my nervous system? because the way we operate in markets is that the market changed in a certain direct his direction until the for some are some or the reason the direction is change. so disruption happens. and historically, although of course, as you said last year, we didn't hit anything on the nail. if you allow us to extend the window by which we have to be right to 36 months, on average, we have 2 calls, right? you know, if we wanted to be right, of course, we will just make prediction 5 to 10 percent of the market for every single product . and that would in itself make sure that by just green students will get there.

that is not the exercise. so this year we talk about you living 25 years longer. we talk about a space rate on hypersonic weapons. we talk about the fact that will be arranged on fossil energy. we talk about a democrat democracy crisis in the u. s. so if you don't think that rages enough, you know, it's only because today the everyday life seems to me as some we've been doing this for 30 years. it's very difficult actually, to make our read a prediction compete with the reality of the rages day by day life that we see. so, in 2020 predictions a possible pandemic wasn't in mentions even though the virus was already with us. what in late 2019. so in a sea of global trends, how do you choose which ones are worth highlighting and which aren't? but again, the exercise is not to be precise. so you have to remember this is really about provoking people into thinking about different themes. so if i am allowed to

rephrase your question so, so to say that if you reach the 10 rages production this year, what can i take away from it? well, you can take away from it that we are saying that there's probably going to be a reclassification of nuclear and natural gas. the fastest moving market in terms of new investment will be next gen medicine. there will be a military ramp up globally, not only in russia, but globally, which will benefit a lot of technology companies and companies that the space we will probably have during the year a crisis in terms of funding as her. so i figured it's super relevant for people to think in this sort of way because, you know, let's just talk about the federal reserve. what they done over the last month. they have pivoted 180 degrees from saying that inflation is transitory. to now following a script, which is that inflation is dangerous for the work of population to us. so these changes happens all the sudden out of the blue,

and that's why we're trying to prepare people for say, the same of this year's predictions as revolution and disruption. while high resolution, are we talking about here? is it supposed to be more of an art spring type or 6 days culture type revolution? belinda, i mean we, i think you chose a great day denominator here, the 1960 to $19.00 service revolution. so, you know, if you look at the world from a political standpoint right now, we have to most recommended political system ever globally. we have probably the single biggest divide in the world today is not between the rich and the poor. it's still big and it needs to be closed but is really between the youth and the baby boomer generation, there is a funding need. there is a practical knee. there is an ambition need. there is a hope need to create more future for, for the young generation. and that is underlying this in such a small revolution. so when we talk about revolution is in the sense that something

is being regenerated, re found, of redefine, not as, as, as we're used to the 1780. and i'm french revolution, or even the context of the russian is not a weapon. so to say, going to arm, so revolution, but it's certainly a disconnect off the way we do business today. and i think that's very much in line with what we're trying to talk about her. so rates prediction. so, a revolution is always a result of festering wound revolution, same fast sat in, but there are, you know, and coins of grown up processes which one of the processes that you observe now can lead to relation of some sort our days in the political space, the lack of faith in constitutions, we see the tag on the constitution in the u. s. receipt in the even a my own country. denmark of the prime minister here has been, or least right now, is partly being tried on, on having violate the constitution during the coven,

1000 crisis. so there is and, and to me personally, this is a massive risk because i think in democracies and in countries that has done exterior wells over the last 100 years, a countries that have a vague strong constitution, a very, a law abiding way of conducting business on a daily basis when that's under the attack, the fabric of life is under attack and the ability and the ignorance off, like the cost system. remember in sort of in philosophical terms, a cost system is entirely built on the belief that it's fair. if the core system is seen not to be fair, then the faith in the system breaks down because you cannot enforce on people something if they don't believe in a system that is sort of the psychological, philosophical way of doing. if you look at then the practical market terms, we at the end of the road in terms of the ability to ignore inflation. we had the end of the road in terms of the ability to fit that finance everything. and we are

probably also at an inroad in terms of continuing to do fiscal support. so what the role nice right now is another way of increasing productivity. which by the way, have a vague positive derivative story because productivity, as we know it today, and the way you get productivity is to invest in people. it is to invest in basic research. and it is in the faith that we can build something better in the future. the obviously is happening to the market. so you are extremely right. and a great question in pointing out that a revolution comes at an end point of something that doesn't work. this when system breaks down or gets disrupted by something that either is just a platform and a time span before you get to a to a new model. so i think i firmly and, and not outrageously, i think the next 5 to 10 years. we'll see the biggest macro changes that we've seen in history since the 19 sixty's spinning into the 19 seventy's. i think we are following the same script, different act,

us different sort of relative and power struggles going on. but the story is still the same. there's not enough hope for the youth, and there is too much money as cumulated in one side of the economy, which is the financial markets. and inside that people who have real estate and equity portfolios. university i think of michigan, i think is to conducting a story where basically over the last, i think, 40 years to have us people under the age of 40, relative to the people above 40. how do you feel about the future? historically, the under 40 years old have always been more positive about the future than the over 40 years. oh, yeah, of course. now as you can imagine, the stories is the opposite. the youth is actually more negative. if you look at the recent data out of the u. s. were seen, then despite the fact we have very low on employment, we have peak and negotiable, or the labor work market. the low income organ in use can negotiate very good terms to get a job. despite that, the economic condition,

they economic affordability off to child indicate that they are looking at is getting smaller. and i thing, of course i'm using us because i have been a day that there, but when i try around the world, the story sale does, it's still the same. i just came back from paris last night. you know, you have to sure invest that. you, you, you, every time there's a little increase in price is little, little inconvenienced in terms of higher your contribution to society society immediately rises to the occasion. and special interest group immediately come on to the full and they're trying to negotiate sort of as the ability to continuation of the already established maxime, those in place think there is more far more fragmentation far more under the surface tension that, that is building say, when i take a short break right now, we're back will continue talking to steve jacobson, chief investment officer at sacks of mine talking about trends and predictions of next year. stay with

ah ah, failure to allow markets to reflect to market forces has resulted in a bifurcation in the economy where the most corrupt are rewarded for committing crimes. j. p. morgan being a prime example. and if you have morals or ethics you're penalized. if you're not out there, students dealing alluding, then you're going to be almost american today. just at a

higher than what you said, i hadn't been allowed to get them outside of that mechanic. and by then coffee for sure. an odd at a by then is a shift of on a oh so so much so if it was a multiple engine jamal can connect to so the upkeep sophie, how was the show, the yellow here? marcella can do to go home with a symbol. so she said yeah, i can button more awesome. who it man a little bit of luck with uh uh huh. allowed me on it. that was you. how i did

something and say, hey, do like a a with my, with economic maybe i'm maybe with can with and we're back with steve jacobson, chief investment officer. it's axa bank steen. so you were team, it predicts that the fight against fossil fuels will be put on hold. and that is

happening already. i mean, just looking at the g 20 or the cop 26, some aids where our leaders agreed that they initially set green energy transition goals were far too ambitious. is it looking like we haven't really afford the bright, green future that we need to survive on this planet? all we can, we can afford it, but the way we are executing on the plan to get to that point is not done correctly . i think if, if you wanna, you know, sort of make it very simplistic, you can argue the least the rest and well thinks that if you increase the amount of electric vehicles on the roads, you have a good way of actually getting to a c o 2 emission standard, which of course is not true, but what we're doing right now with the way we are executing it, is that we are a choosing on getting more money more flow at taxonomy in terms of the u, which is entirely building green transformation and investment. but when you are d cup and icing, you may to lighten the economy. and then on top of that,

which is the single most i outstanding issue and the biggest risk full any of beslee, including the russians. ria andre, investing into the mining and into the energy sector. the cape x to capital expend, the used into that sector is closed 0. and this is at a time where electricity consumption globally is still growing at 6 to 7 percent with the global economy only growing at $3.00 to $4.00. in other words, the electricity consumption is accelerating relatively to the overall groves of society. meaning people are using more electricity, the ability to do a base load energy generation in europe is of all time low. this week alone, we had the highest energy prices ever in france, $205.00 euros per kilo, that we have a deficient cheese in terms of the energy. which means basically for the europeans, a sector right now, we ha, more dependent on the flow from russia than ever before. while we had the same time

across still have discussion whether no stream should be implemented here. now i in the future, and for god's sake stop me from, from being involved that i have no opinion that, but that, that's definitely just the practical case. and you know, the way this, there's winter looks, it's going to be colder. and the stores of energy is low again, also which may instead the inflationary pressure. the energy crisis as a concept is already there. the you have to, to give us a little bit of an excuse in terms of the, the fossil energy, coal, remember we wrote this before? the cop 26, but you actually do right? if you look at evolution oboski going on, please be globally. japan has pivoted towards small nuclear power. felon is now trying to get you to accept nuclear, paula and reclassifying it. we seen a utilities in the u. k. is coal burning. decommission atomic plants in the u. s. is being reopened. so clearly, you know, at the end of the day,

the green transformation is a political agenda, getting electricity coming out, those switches that is right behind you. that is a political need that needs to be filled on a daily basis. now that politician feels his, hence we will see this reef classification and have read definition off the move towards a, a very good objective fall self in society. but something that needs to be done in a and a political and accountable way. so you also look at major cultural shifts, not only economic or political, and you predict the more nish internet revolution on facebook that will see a mass exodus of young people from that platform. or you think facebook will dine? 2020. no. what will we saying is that the youth again, once, don't want to be defined by a commercial algorithm, ada major platform. they, i increasingly moving away. we see that some of the fastest growing apps in the world today is apps which is using the same sort of connectivity and being on that

old times, the fastest rising as far as i know, social media platform, right. i was a french app, which is using the concept of instagram. well, way i used to gram account than everybody else is, is the game is always telling you, telling people how well you're doing, how the sun is shining, how good the food is, how expensive? because is, this phone is turning things around and saying, this is cindy. you once a day, a 5 minutes span by which you have to upload a picture. so this is showing you the reality of real life, the good side, the bad side, the downside and everything else. on top of that, you can only engage in the social platform if you are a member and contributing yourself. of course, the instagram is little bit like streaming services or tv in the old days. today's it is, is it is almost a pay per view sort of the way to seeing. so what we're seeing is that the young people increasingly will claim and want to be on platforms, which is expressing their view, their way of interpreter will not

a commercial chopped down version of it. i think that is the garage root. going back to what you said earlier, if you use the analogy of to you for evolution, $960.00 s, and every definition off, what is it that we want relatively to what the step isn't want? because however much opt out up on a beat that, that, that met verse wants to be, they all run by people who are, you know, very different in age, in wealth and in political opinion, that the management of these companies. and that's going to be increased the an issue not only from facebook, global to, from instagram, and tick tock and everything else. i think we will have smaller, more agile, more precise expression of people's interest going forward underneath that. also person to think that, you know, private private data, urgency is, is a major issue even for young people today. we also put a woman's crusade on gender inequality and the gender pay gap in particular. so the world economic forum says before the pandemic,

it would take 99 years to close this gap. now 136 years. since we don't know how long this to them equal rag and how many more are too com or you know, when it will be other blacks once a man, it will be possible to fix this gap. what do you think? now we're saying that, listen, maybe the way to get you joel pen e cook penya at santa fe, is not to ask for it, but to take it. and the way they can conduct that in the arrays for these we make is that, you know, if you're ready to use something like a rated or make a women's group that basically gather together and, and accumulate all of the wealth that these women expression and going off to what we called the pet yaki of companies. so basically, you know, dissing companies which is not trying to close to pay gap who is not getting the right amount of c suite women of rabbits and say no certainly on the board as well . and on top of that, you can also find companies we're just doing the opposite and go off them. i think

you underestimate disability, but most importantly, for me actually is the fact that the pers, or the size of the a u. m. sitting where women is, even in the most patriotic societies in world like in the middle east, it is almost always the women that sits on top off the cache and d at risk willingness. so i actually think over the next 22 years, you will see the 1st women only bang. you will see the 1st women only broker. i don't honestly understand why no one's ever done that. you know, why isn't there a women's only broker? i mean, if you look at the whole expression off commercials in financial markets is always a male person is always about cause and powerful and, and, and the signal to call us all that he said, man is about making it all women's, all female ah, segregating once again, you know, women alone, men alone or it's about equality and having as much women and men and maybe working

on the same ground. but on equal conditions, i think in know a good philosophical question which has been to try to be addressed for 300 years. is it about equal rights? it's about equality for every one, noises about equal rights to everybody. our push is for equal rights to everybody to have their say, this concept that you can equally treat o p with the same is rubbish, made the strongest constitution a world including my own customers. and then mine is based on the principle that everyone should have. the ability to choose themselves, and i'm simply just saying, instead of asking for this stuff, the women could get together and start to put pressure on companies. doesn't mean the company's needs to change what products to sell or how they do it, only to represent it. not only it is the reputation off that there is nothing on earth physically, practically, that the taste of women should be painless. i don't even understand the argument practically, and i'm at you the wrong person. i'm a 50 year old white male, right?

i'm the a typical person you're talking about this. i'm a should even be allowed to talk about. but, but i want this to happen. i don't really care whether it's, it's based on once you do it, but you're right to point out for this to say she has to be about equal rights to express in that view. and that's why something like read it. women's army would be a great way to do it because that's basically just saying you and other women just go on a certain platform. you agree that this, that, and the other companies good and you support it and you sell the companies you don't like in that way. you can show far more power than you can get by the factors . i agree in the political system. what scientific revolutions, while we worry about, you know, income inequality, climate change, and all that science is making absolute, giant leaps every year. and we have a prediction of the possible massive breakthrough in medicine. we're seeing how medicine is getting all the funding in this pandemic days. is quite likely how would a major breakthrough in as your prediction says, lin,

give any impact everything else? well, let's take the negative and, and talk a lot about the pasta roster. but the negative side is that we have difficulties dealing with the world today with 7 to 7000000000 people in it. imagine to be all the 25 years longer than theoretically, there will be 10 to 11000000000 people totally in the world that will make the metropolitan issues of traffic and pollution bigger. it will make the quality in a city speaker properly, and it will certainly make the ability to, to deal with the green transformation slower and more prolonged opposite that says of course, the fact that as we live longer and the way we achieve that and you're absolutely right, the medical breakthrough in this space is absolutely incredible. so what we figured out scientifically is that there's not a single pill that's not a single way that you improve your longevity. what actually happens is that most people die from lack of what is called resilience. resiliency is the fact you get attacked by a disease. your ability to come back from that at ease they did,

they find how long you live. now with chris bar, with gene editing cell re from again, regeneration cells, splitting organ transplants being a possible both artificially and practically, you can grow it, you can, you have medical platform. so virus, of course, sits on this as well. what we actually doing is that as you go to my age and older, our brazilian will be improved simply because, you know, in 510 years from now we potentially will be able to, to detect early science or cancer. and before gets into a hospital treatment, we can do precision medicine or gene editing that make sure that this is not evolving into a real attack on your resilience. the upside of that, of course, is that what is the single biggest cost to the russian society as is aging, is to health care costs. imagine we have a whole health of a health care system that just 1st off has 50 percent preventive medicine and 50

percent treatment that will come at more than half the price of what it is today. and ultimate move to a platform where 80 percent of old deceased is, is treatable or diagnosed before people get into the hospital to they'll reduce the massive burden off, you know, the, the, the cost of society and running as society with that as aging. that could be a massive offset, but most importantly, and i and i have to smile when i say that is for me as an investor. i know for a fact when you project bought the flow, there is into this sector. it will be growing at roughly 25 percent of year for the next 10 years. this is the single biggest ad growth that i've seen in anything in terms of, of markets ever in my life. and i'm pretty sure that the offside of the reduced cost is why society wants to and as an invest, of course, i want to hang on to this. the problem is, as you well know, you can now ask me what is to free stock. i should buy to represent this,

i don't know because he's old very merging. it's very fragmented in terms of the market, dr. but i'm know for a fact that is all moving along the same path to watch at great utility for society and massive return for investors in what you know is being cornered the next gen medicine. thank you so much for this wonderful insight stain. well, i wish you all the best of luck, and i wish all your positive predictions to come true for our sake anyways. i wish all of us to be more aware of everything that is going on. and i think that is the only way to go forward. happy holidays and stay safe. and i hope we talk soon, maybe next year to re evaluate next year's predictions. when came true, it didn't. absolutely. and that best of holidays to all my friends in russia, i may say, coming in to moscow to 3 times a year. so i hope 22, that the predicts of a trends you, i hope will happen, is that i'll spend more time in russia with my friends and colleagues and clients

and, and it's always a pleasure to talk to you guys, so best wishes to the whole family are there any station on that? and then everyone who's listening, so best of luck, everybody thanks. didn't take care, take care, bye. ah no. when i was so seemed wrong when i just don't hold any world to see proud these days because the advocate an engagement, it was betrayal. when so many find themselves worlds apart,

we choose to look so common ground scientific knowledge has never been so readily available to everyone across the globe, but overwhelmed by information. how can we distinguish the real science from the one being imposed upon us? we're living in a world where there are many people who have invested interest in finding information, finding scientific evidence, and discrediting even the notion that science could provide the truth about the natural world in the pursuit of business goals. large corporations are challenged strongly by scientific evidence if you're emotionally invested in free markets, them climate change is a serious emotional threat because dealing with that means we have to change our approach to business industries or on the war bar, attempting to debunk legitimate science by producing new evidence in science

writing science. that's how ignorant is manufactured, their attention only seeking to the rail science rolling using science itself. with with what he digs into shock revelations that the manchester arena suicide bomber had links to a nato trained terrorist as an inquiry into the atrocity. his submissions, from the case home of his and counter terrorism, police turning on the president, media outlets that are usually very drove on friendly start to grumble that he shouldn't be running for another term. and it's not discovered that the danger to humanity, russia roach, is the world to wake up dormant viral threats in the.