russia establishes an organization to examine these threats with that are sure, there are a number of well documented outbreaks of paleo infections that had arisen from thermal degradation of permafrost than the arctic and sub arctic regions. anthrax, smallpox, tuberculosis, one virus, has already been found. the piss a virus has defrosted from the pound of frost and right after that it started attacking and killing amoebas. luckily it is not harmful to humans, but what else is hidden in the frozen soil? what is awaiting us in 2022. you certainly read more about that right now at auto dot com. just click on the russia section. well, thanks for joining us, wrapping up this new gospel this hour only though. plenty more story still to come when we are back in half an hour for

blue, right? now there are 2000000000 people who are overweight or obese. it's profitable to sell food that he's fatty and sugary and salty and addicted. it's not at the individual level, it's not individual willpower. and if we go on believing that will never change this obesity epidemic. that industry has been influencing very deeply. the medical and scientific establishment. mm. so what's driving the obesity epidemic? it's corporate with

them to. so think of visionaries may. so if you shevardnadze as 2021 jurors to a close fisheries, political scientists, economists, they're all competing and well guessing about what next ear has in store for us. well today at talk to steve jacobson, chief investment officer at saxon bank, steve jacobson, chief investment officer at sax, so bank, great to have you with us. how are you doing? all right, thank you. thanks for having me on. so our pleasure. so stay in every turn of the or you come up with what you call outrages predictions for the ear to come. first of all, tell me why make outrageous predictions? what's to it? is it purely in mind exercise or there is more to it? well, it all started 20 years ago and you have to remember 20 years ago, we didn't have a smartphone, we didn't have social media. so at the time the time around christmas was very slow

from major and markets. so we had a lot of time. oh, i had a reset, hang on a minute. why don't we do an exercise? we're just, you say is a mind game or way to look at the future. where we really try to provoke thinking with the reader. in a sense that everything we do as human being is finding patterns and thinking in lena terms, this exercise about being not leaner, but look at the exponential risks, games for exponential offsite. so over the last 20 years, this has become, by far, our most sought after publication. it's become sort of a, a global brand. and i know, but from, from going to russia a lot is very much inside the russian nature as well too. while in russia you always look for the downside, that's just the way you are like me almost but, but it's, it's a good exercise to think about small probabilities that if they do happen has a high impact on markets. so no, no, 2021 predictions came true. but then again,

that's why they're outrageous, right? these are things that are likely to happen even though they could. so you tell me, when i read about this, you know, potential black swan events and at the end of the day, there are so far out that there aren't likely to happen. why would i worry about the scenarios? and there's plenty to worry about these days. why put more strain on my nerve assistance? because the way we operate in markets is that the market changed in a certain direct his direction until the for some are some or the reason the direction is change. so disruption happens. and historically, although of course, as you said last year, we didn't hit anything on the nail. if you allow us to extend the window by which we have to b, ride 236 months, on average, we have 2 calls, right? you know, if we wanted to be right, of course, we will just make prediction 5 to 10 percent of the market for every single product

. and that would in itself make sure that by just green students will get there. that is not the exercise. so this year we talk about you living 25 years longer. we talk about a space rate on hypersonic weapons. we talk about the fact that we'll be arranging on fossil energy. we talk about a democrat democracy crisis in the us. so if you don't think that's rages enough, you know, it's only because today the everyday life seems to me as some we've been doing this for 30 years. it's very difficult actually to make radiate prediction. compete with the reality of the rages day by day life. that we see. so, in 2020 predictions a possible pandemic wasn't in mentions even though the virus was already with us. what in late 2019. so in a sea of global trends, how do you choose which ones are worth highlighting and which aren't? but again, the exercise is not to be precise. so you have to remember this is really about

provoking people into thinking about different theme. so if i am allowed to rephrase your question, so if so to say that if you reach the 10, i'll rages production. this year, what can i take away from it? well, you can take away from it that we are saying that there's probably going to be a re classification of nuclear, a natural gas. the fastest moving market in terms of new investment will be next gen medicine. there will be a military ramp up globally, not only in russia, but globally, which will benefit a lot of technology companies and companies that the space we will probably have during the year a crisis in terms of funding as her. so i think it's, it's super relevant for people to thinking this sort of the way because, you know, let's just talk about the fed reserve. what they done over the last month. they have pivoted 180 degrees from saying that inflation is transitory to now, following a script were just and inflation is dangerous for the work of population to us. so

these changes happens all the sudden out of the blue, and that's why we're trying to prepare people for so the same of this year's predictions as revolution and disruption. once i read lucian, are we talking about here? is it supposed to be more of an art spring type or 6 days culture type revolution? the later, i mean we, i think you chose a great day denominator here, the 1960, to 19 service revolution. so, you know, if you look at the world from a political standpoint right now, we have to most fragmented political system ever globally. we have probably the single biggest divide in the world today is not between the rich and the poor. it's still big and it needs to be closed but is really between the youth and the baby boomer generation, there is a funding need. there is a practical need. there is an ambition need. there is a hope need to create more future for, for the young generation. and that is underlying this in such

a smart revolution. so when we talk about revolution is in the sense that something is being regenerated, re found, of redefine, not as, as, as we're used to the 1780. and i'm french revolution, or even the context of the russian is not a weapon. sort of going to arm so revolution, but it's certainly a disconnect off the way we do business today. and i think that's very much in line with what we're trying to talk about. her rates prediction. so, a revolution is always a result of festering wound, revolutions seem fast sudden, but there are, you know, and coins of grown up processes which one of the processes that you observe now can lead to relation of some sort our days in the political space, the lack of faith in constitutions, we see the tag on the constitution in the u. s. receipt in the even a my own country. denmark of the prime minister here has been, or least right now,

is partly being tried on, on having violate the constitution during the coven, 1000 crisis. so there is and, and to me personally, this is a massive wrist because i think in democracies and in countries that has done exterior wells over the last 100 years, a countries that have a vague strong constitution, a very, a law abiding way of conducting business on a daily basis when that's under the tack, the fabric of life is under attack and the ability and the ignorance off, like the core system. remember in sort of in philosophical terms, a core system is entirely built on the belief that it's fair. if the core system is seen not to be fair, then the faith in the system breaks down because you cannot enforce on people something if they don't believe in a system that is sort of the psychological, philosophical way of doing. if you look at then the practical market terms, we at the end of the road in terms of the ability to ignore inflation. we had the

end of the road in terms of the ability to fit that finance everything. and we are probably also at an end road in terms of continuing to do fiscal support. so what the role nice right now is another way of increasing productivity. which by the way, have a very positive derivative story because productivity, as we know it today, and the way you get productivity is to invest in people. it is to invest in basic research. and it is in the faith that we could build something better in the future . the opposite is happening to the market. so you are extremely right. and a great question in pointing out that a revolution comes at an end point of something that doesn't work. this when system breaks down or gets disrupted by something that either is just a platform and a time span before you get to a to a new model. so i think as firmly and, and not outrageously, i think the next 5 to 10 years we'll see the biggest macro changes that we've seen in history since the 19 sixty's spinning into the 19 seventy's. i think we are

following the same script, different actor stephan sort of relative and power struggles going on. but the story is still the same. there's not enough hope for the youth. and there is too much money as cumulated in one side of the economy, which is the financial markets. and inside that people who have real estate and equity portfolios, university, i think of michigan, i think is to conducting a story where basically over the last i think, 40 years, if asked people under the age of 40, relative to the people above 40, how do you feel about the future historically, the under 40 years old have always been more positive about the future than the over 40 years. oh, yeah. of course. now as you can imagine, the stories is the opposite. the youth is actually more negative. if you look at the recent data out of the u. s. foreseen then, despite the fact we have very low on employment, we have peak and negotiable, or the labor work market to low income organ in you as can negotiate very good

terms to get a job. despite that, the economic conditions they cannot make affordability off, the child indicate that they are looking at is getting smaller. and i thing, of course i'm using us because i have been a day that there. but when i try around the world, the story sale does, it's still the same. i just came back from paris last night. you know, you have to sure invest that. you, you, you, every time there's a little increase in price is little lil inconvenience in terms of higher your contribution to society. society immediately rises to the occasion. and special interest group immediately come on to the full and then try to negotiate sort of as the ability continuation of the already established maxime, those in place think there is more far more fragmentation far more on the, the surface tension that, that is building say when i take a short break right now. we're back. we'll continue talking to steve jacobson, chief investment officer at sacks of mine talking about trends and predictions of next year. stay with us.

ah ah, in terms of security and defense, your stance at a crossroads should outdated cold war era structures be maintained like nato in over we line on the us court and should europe define and shoulder responsibilities for its own defense? and what about russian failure to allow bond markets to reflect to market forces as resolved in a bifurcation in the economy, where the most corrupt are rewarded for committing crimes. j. p. morgan being

a prime example. and if you have morals or ethics you're penalized. if you're not out there still sailing alluding, then you're going to be homeless. and that's america today. it's a sad and we're back with stain jacobson, ships investment officer at sax. so bank stain. so your team predicts that the fight against fossil fuels will be put on hope. and that is happening already. i mean, just looking at the g 20 or the cop $26.00 summit, where our leader is agreed that they initially set green energy transition goes, we're far too ambitious. is it looking like we haven't really afford the bright, green future that we need to survive on this planet?

all we can, we can afford it, but the way we are executing on the plan to get to that point is not done correctly . i think if, if you wanna, you know, sort of make it very simplistic, you can argue the least. the western world thinks that if you increase the amount of electric vehicles on the roads, you have a good way of actually getting to a c o 2 emission standard, which of course is not true. but what we're doing right now with the way we're executing is that we are executing on getting more money, more flow, a taxonomy in terms of the u, which is entirely built and green transformation and investments. but when you are d cup and icing, you are metalized in economy. and then on top of that, which is the single most i outstanding issue and the biggest restful, any of beslee, including the russians. we are under investing into the mining and into the energy sector. the cape x to capital expend, the used into that sector is close 0. and this is at

a time where electricity consumption globally is still growing at 6 to 7 percent with the global economy only growing at $3.00 to $4.00. in other words, the electricity consumption is accelerating relatively to the old growth of society . meaning people are using more electricity, the ability to do a bass load energy generation in europe is of all time low. this week alone, we had the highest energy prices ever in france, 205 euros for kill yvette. we have a deficient cheese in terms of the energy, which means basically for the europeans, a sector right now, we have more dependent on the flow from russia than ever before. while we had the same time across still have discussion where the noise stream should be implemented here. now in the future and for god's sake stop me from, from being involved that i have no opinion that, but that, that's definitely just the practical case. and you know, the way this, there's, when the looks, it's going to be colder. and the stores of energy is low again,

also which may instead the inflationary pressure, the energy crisis, as a concept is already there. the you have to, to give us a little bit of an excuse in terms of the, the fossil energy, coal, remember we wrote this before? the cop 26, but you're absolutely right. if you look at evolution of what's going on, please be globally. japan has pivoted to wall small nuclear power. felon is now trying to get you to accept and you kill paul and re classifying it. we seen a utilities in the u. k. is coal burning. decommission atomic plants in the u. s. is being reopened. so clearly, you know, at the end of the day, the green transformation is a political agenda, getting electricity coming out, those switches that is right behind you. that is a political need that needs to be filled on a daily basis. now that politician feels his, hence we will see this reef clarification and have read definition off the move

towards a, a very good objective fall self in society. but something that needs to be done in a and a political and accountable way. so you also look at major cultural shifts, not only economic or political, and you predict the more nish internet revolution on facebook that will see a mass exodus of young people from that platform. are you saying facebook will dine? 2020. no. what will we saying is that the youth again, once, don't want to be defined by a commercial algorithm, ada major platform day, i increasingly moving away. we see that some of the fastest growing apps in the world today is apps which is using the same sort of connectivity and being on that old times, the fastest rising as far as i know, social media platform, right. i was a french app, which is using the concept of instagram. we're way i used to gram account and everybody else is. the game is always telling you, telling people how well you're doing, how the sun is shining, how good the food is,

how expensive the cause is. this phone is turning things around and saying, this is cindy. you once a day, a 5 minute span by which you have to upload a picture. so this is showing you the reality of real life, the good side, the bad side, the downside and everything else. on top of that, you can only engage in the social platform if you are member and contributing yourself. of course, the instagram is little bit like streaming services or tv in the old days. today's it is, is it is almost a pay per view sort of the way to seeing. so what we're seeing is that the young people increasingly will claim and want to be on platforms which is expressing their view, their way of interpreter will not a commercial chopped down version of it. i think that is the grassroots going back to what you said earlier. if you use the analogy of to you for evolution, $960.00 s and every definition off, what is it that we want relatively to what the step isn't want? because however much opt out up on a bead that, that, that metaphor wants to be de,

i'll run by people who are, you know, very different in age and wealth and political opinion that the management of these companies. and that's going to be increased the an issue not only from facebook bubbles from instagram and tick tock and everything else. i think we will have smaller, more agile, more precise expression of people's interest going forward underneath that. also person to think that, you know, private private data, urgency is, is a major issue you and for young people today. we also put a woman's crusade on gender and equality and the gender pay gap in particular. so the world economic forum says before the pin, i mean it would take 9 years to close this gap. now, 136 years since we don't know how long this to them equal rag and how many more are too com or you know, when it will be other blacks once a man, it will be possible to fix this gap. what do you think?

now we're saying that listen, maybe the way to get eagle pen equal penya tend to bay is not to ask for it, but to take it. and the way they can conduct that in the arrays. but if we make is that, you know, if you're ready to use something like a rated or make a women's group that basically gather together and, and accumulate all of the wells that these women expression and going off to what we called to pet yaki of companies so basically, you know, dissing companies to which is not trying to close to pay gap who is not getting the right amount of c suite, women of rabbits and satan certainly on the board as well. and on top of that, you can also find companies. we're just doing the opposite and go off them. i think you underestimate disability, but most importantly, for me actually is the fact that the pers, or the size of the a u. m. sitting where women is, even in the most patriotic societies in world like in the middle east, it is almost always the women that sits on top off the cache. and

d have risk willingness. so i actually think over the next 22 years, you will see the 1st women only bang. you will see the 1st women only broker. i don't honestly understand why no one's ever done that. you know, why isn't there a women's only broker? i mean, if you look at the whole expression off commercials in financial markets is always a male person is always about cause and powerful and, and, and the signal the call is old. and he said, a man is about making it all women's, all female ah, segregating once again. you know, women alone, men alone or it's about equality and having as much women and men and maybe working on the same ground. but on equal conditions. i think in know a good philosophical question which has been to try to be address for 300 years. is it about equal rights? is it about equality for every one, noise it about equal rights to everybody. i'll push is for iq, arise to everybody,

to have their say, this concept that you can equally treat all people. same is rubbish, made the strongest constitution a world including my own constitution. and then one is based on the principle that everyone should have the ability to choose themselves. and i'm simply just saying, instead of asking for this stuff that women could get together and start to put pressure on companies, doesn't mean the company's needs to change what products to sell or how to do it. it only to represent it, not only it is the representation of that, that there is nothing on earth physically practically that the taste of women should be palest. i don't even understand the argument practically, and i'm at you the wrong person. i'm a 50 year old white male, right? i'm the, a typical person you're talking about this. i'm a should even be allowed to talk about. but, but i want this to happen. i don't really care whether it's, it's based on one thing to do, but you're right to point out for this to succeed. it has to be about equal rights to the expression that view. and that's why something like red women's army would

be a great way to do it because there's space you just saying you and other women just go on a certain platform. you agree that this, that, and the other companies good and then you support it. and you sell the companies you don't like in that way. you can show far more power than you can get by the factors. i agree in the political system. what scientific revolutions, while we worry about, you know, income inequality, climate change, and all that science is making absolute, giant leaps every year. and we have a prediction of the possible massive breakthrough in medicine. we're seeing how medicine is getting all the funding in this pandemic days. is quite likely how would a major breakthrough in, as your prediction says, lin, give any impact everything else? well, let's take the negative and, and talk a lot about the positive after. but the negative side is that we have difficulties dealing with, with the world today, with 7 to 7000000000 people in it. imagine to be all the 25 years longer than theoretically, they'll be 10 to 11000000000 people totally in the world that will make the

metropolitan issues of traffic and pollution bigger. it will make the any quality in a city speaker properly, and it will certainly make the ability to, to, to deal with the green transformation slower and more prolonged opposite that says of course, the fact that as we live longer and the way we achieving that and you're absolutely right. the medical breakthrough in this space is absolutely incredible. so what we figured out scientifically is that there's not a single pill that's not a single way that you improve your longevity. what actually happens is that most people die from lack of what is called resilience. resiliency is the fact you get attacked by a disease. your ability to come back from that at ease they did, they find how long you live. now with chris bar with gene editing cell reform, again regeneration cells, splitting organ transplants being possible both artificially and practically. you

can grow it. you can, you have medical platforms. the whole virus, of course, sits on this as well. what we actually doing is that as you go to my age and older, our brazilian will be improved simply because, you know, in 510 years from now we potentially will be able to, to detect early science or cancer. and before it gets into a hospital treatment, we can do precision medicine or gene editing that make sure that this is not evolving into a real attack on your resilience. the upside of that, of course, is that what is the single biggest cost to the russian society as is aging, is to health care costs. imagine we have a whole health, a health care system that just 1st off has 50 percent preventive medicine and 50 percent treatment that will come at more than half the price of what it is to day and ultimate move to a platform where 80 percent of old deceased is, is treatable or diagnosed before people get into the hospital to that will reduce the massive burden off, you know, the, the,

the cost of society and running as society with that as aging. that could be a massive offset. but most importantly, and i and i have to smile when i say that is for me as an investor. i know for a fact when you project bought the flow, there is into this sector. it will be growing at roughly 25 percent of year for the next 10 years. this is the single biggest ad growth that i've seen in anything in terms of, of markets ever in, in my life. and i'm pretty sure that the offside of the reduced cost is why society wants to and as an invest, of course, i want to hang on to this. the problem is, as you well know, you, you cannot ask me, what is the free stock you buy to represent this? i don't know because he's old very merging. it's very fragmented in terms of the market structure. but i'm know for a fact that is all moving along the same path towards at great utility for society and massive return for investors in what you know is being cornered the next gen

medicine. thank you so much for this wonderful insight stain. well, i wish you all the best of luck, and i wish all your positive predictions to come true for all sake. anyways, i wish all of us to be more aware of everything that is going on. anything that is the only way to go forward. happy holidays and stay safe, and i hope we talk soon, maybe next year to re evaluate next year's predictions. when came true, it didn't. absolutely. and that best of holidays to all my friends in russia, i may say coming in to moscow 2 free times a year. so i hope 22, that the predicts of a trends you, i hope will happen, is that i will spend more time in russia with my friends and colleagues and clients and, and it's always a pleasure to talk to your guy so best wishes to the whole family and any information on that. and then everyone who's listening. so best of luck, everybody. thanks. dana take care. take care. bye

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shallows. join me every thursday on the alex, simon, sure. but i'll be speaking to guess on the world politics sport business. i'm sure business. i'll see you then. this ours top headlines here on our tea, russia publishers a list of proposals to nato, for maintaining security. the deputy foreign minister saying the ball is now in the alliance his court when it comes to de escalation. the program we dig into disturbing revelation to the manchester arena, suicide bomber had linked to a former nato soldier, time terrorist. as an inquiry here, submissions from the u. k. 's home office and counter terror. police turning on the

president, media outlets that are usually very joe biden friendly start to brush.