crisis since the civil war with a reasonable chance over the next 3 to 4 years of incidence of mass violence. a breakdown of federal authority and the division of the country into warring a red and blue enclave. and to be clear, a far from believing that potential political violence could be a both sides situations where democrats and republicans alike end up taking arms for their respective causes. commentators like kagan and m. s. n. b c's. john heilman, make it clear that in their opinion, the threat of violence comes solely from the right, at least 8 percent. and maybe as many as 12 percent of the american people now say the job was illegitimate and that violence was appropriate tool to remove human restore. donald trump considering that throughout 2020 large scale political violence was almost exclusively left wing arena. with many american cities being burned or looted under the guise of b, l, m, and t for activism here in the corporate press. now trying to paint conservatives as the real threat of domestic terrorism in the country might seem disingenuous.

and so with all of this discussion of political division and even violence should come as no surprise that the topic of secession has even come back to the main stream. in fact, as a bloomberg opinion piece recently noted from tax it to the new california republic poles in the u. s. do show strong support for splitting the nation among blue and red lines. and although the concept of balcony zation or succession is still regarded as an extreme suggestion by many in the media, if from supporters and republicans really are as violent and bigoted as they would have us believe us, shouldn't they be jumping at the chance to separate themselves from them or perhaps are the allegations against conservatives. merely smears meant to keep them out of political power all while allowing democrats to enact legislative control over them . lauren chin. well, it's that time of year when every sort of prediction is made about the following 12 months. and so for chevy, nazi's visionary series has taken it up

a notch futurist political scientists and economists have all been invited to offer their thoughts. find out who's in the hot seat, right ahead. i will come to so think of visionaries may. so he shevardnadze as 2021 jurors to a close fisheries. political scientists, economists, they're all competing and well guessing about what next ear has in store for us. well today at talk to steve jacobson, chief investment officer at saxon bank, steve jacobson, chief investment officer at sax, so bank, great. have you with us. are you doing? all right, thank you. thanks for having man. is our pleasure. so seen every turn of the air,

you come up with what you call outrageous predictions for the ear to come. first of all, tell me why make outrageous predictions? what's to it? is it purely in mind exercise or there is more to it? well, it all started 20 years ago and you have to remember 20 years ago, we didn't have a smartphone. we didn't have social media. so at the time the time around christmas was very slow from major and markets. so we had a lot of time. oh, i had a reset, hang on a minute. why don't we do an exercise? we're just, you say is a mind game or way to look at the future. where we really try to provoke thinking with the reader. in the sense that everything we do as human being is finding patterns and thinking in lena terms, this exercise about being not leaner, but look at the exponential risks, games for exponential offsite. so over the last 20 years, this has become, by far, our most sought after publication. it's become sort of a global brand. and i know,

but from, from going to russia a lot is very much inside the russian nature as well too. while in russia you always look for the downside, that's just the way you are like me almost but, but it's, it's a good exercise to think about small probabilities that if they do happen has a high impact on markets. so none of 2021 predictions came true. but then again, that's why they're outrageous, right? these are things that are likely to happen even though they could. so you tell me, when i read about this, you know, potential black swan events and at the end of the day, there are so far out that there aren't likely to happen. why would i worry about the scenarios? and there's plenty to worry about this, these. why put more strain on my nervous system? because the way we operate in market is that the market changed in a certain direct his direction until the for some are some or the reason the

direction is change. so disruption happens. and historically, although of course, as you said last year, we didn't hit anything on the nail. if you allow us to extend the window by which we have to the right is 36 months. on average, we have 2 calls, right? you know, if we want it to be right, of course we will just make prediction 5 to 10 percent out of the market for every single product. and that would in itself make sure that by just coincidence will get there. that is not the exercise. so this year we talk about you living 25 years longer. we talk about a space rate on hypersonic weapons. we talk about the fact that will be a rain check on fossil energy. we talk about a democrat democracy crisis in the u. s. so if you don't think that's outrageous enough, you know, is only because today the everyday life seems to me as a, some has been doing this for 30 years. it's very difficult actually, to make a rate of prediction. compete with the reality of the rages they by day life that

we see. so, in 2020 predictions, a possible pandemic wasn't even mentioned, even though the virus was already with us when in late 2019. and so in a sea of global trends, how do you choose which ones are worth highlighting and which aren't? but again, the exercise is not to be precise. so you have to remember this is really about provoking people into thinking about different themes. so if i am allowed to rephrase your question, so you've so to say that if you reach the 10 outrageous production this year, what can i take away from it? well, you can take away from it that we are saying that there's probably going to be a reclassification of nuclear and natural gas. the fastest moving market in terms of new investment will be next gen medicine. there will be a military ramp up globally, not only in russia, but globally, which will benefit a lot of technology companies and companies that the space we will probably have

during the year a crisis in terms of funding as her. so i figured it's super relevant for people to think in this sort of way because, you know, let's just talk about the federal reserve. what they done over the last month. they have pivoted 180 degrees from saying that inflation is transitory. to now following a script, which is that inflation is dangerous for the work of population to us. so these changes happens all the sudden out of the blue, and that's why we're trying to prepare people for say, the same of this year's predictions as revolution and disruption. well kyra lucian, are we talking about here? is it supposed to be more art spring type or 6 days culture type revolution? belinda, i mean we, i think you chose a great day denominator here, the one, $960.00 to $900.00 service revolution. so, you know, if you look at the world from a political standpoint right now, we have to most recommended political system ever globally. we have probably the

single biggest divide in the world to day is not between the rich and the poor. it's still big and it needs to be closed but is really between the youth and the baby boomer generation, there is a funding need. there is a practical need. there is an ambition need. there is a hope me to create more future for, for the young generation, and that is on the line this, in such a small revolution. so when we talk about revolution is in the sense that something is being regenerated, re found, of redefine, not as, as, as we are used to, the 1789 french revolution, or even the context of the russian is not a weapon. so to say, going to arm, so revolution, but it's certainly a disconnect off the way we do business today. and i think that's very much in line with what we're trying to talk about her. so rates prediction. so, a revolution is always a result of festering wound revolutions, same fast sat in,

but there are, you know, and coins of grown up processes which one of the processes that you observe now can lead to relation of some sort our days in the political space, the lack of face in constitutions, we see the tag on the constitution in the u. s. receipt in the even a my own country. denmark of the prime minister here has been, or least right now, is partly being tried on, on having violate the constitution during the coven, 1000 crisis. so there is, and to me personally, this is a massive risk because i think in democracies and in countries that has done exterior wells over the last 100 years, a countries that have a vague strong constitution, a very, a law abiding way of conducting business on a daily basis, when that's under detect the fabric of life is under attack and the ability and the ignorance off, like the cost system. remember in sort of in philosophical terms,

a cost system is entirely built on the belief that it's fair. if the core system is seen not to be fair, then the faith in the system breaks down because you cannot enforce on people something if they don't believe in a system that is sort of the psychological, philosophical way of doing. if you look at then the practical market terms, we at the end of the road in terms of the ability to ignore inflation. we at the end of the road in terms of the ability to fit that finance everything. and we are probably also at an end road in terms of continuing to do fiscal support. so what the role needs right now is another way of increasing productivity. which by the way, have a very positive derivative story because productivity, as we know it today, and the way you get productivity is to invest in people. it is to invest in basic research. and it is in the faith that we could build something better in the future . the obviously is happening to the market. so you are extremely right. and a great question in pointing out that

a revolution comes at an end point of something that doesn't work. this when system breaks down or guess disrupted by something that either is just a platform and a time span before you get to a to a new model. so i think as firmly and, and not outrageously, i think the next 5 to 10 years we'll see the biggest macro changes that we've seen in history since the 19 sixty's spinning into the 19 seventy's. i think we are following the same script, different actors. they thin sort of relative that power struggle is going on, but the story is still the same. there's not enough hope for the youth. and there is too much money as cumulated in one side of the economy, which is the financial markets. and inside that people who have real estate and equity portfolios, university, i think of michigan, i think is to conducting a story where basically over the last i think, 40 years devoss people under the age of 40, relative to the people above 40. how do you feel about the future historically, the on to 40 years old have always been more positive about the future than the

over 40 years. oh, yeah. of course. now as you can imagine, the stories is the opposite. the youth is actually more negative. if we look at the recent data out of the u. s. were seen, then despite the fact we have very low on employment, we have big and negotiable or the labor work market. the low income are getting to you as can negotiate very good terms to get a job. despite that, the economic condition, they economic affordability off to child indicate that they are looking at is getting smaller. and i thing, of course i'm using us because i have been a day that there, but when i try around the world, the story sale does, it's still the same. i just came back from paris last night. you know, you have to sure invest that. you, you, you, every time there's a little increase in price is little lil inconvenience in terms of higher your contribution to society. society immediately rises to the occasion. and special interest group immediately come on to the full and then try to negotiate sort of as

to bill. it's a continuation of the already established maxime. there's in place think there is more formal fragmentation far more under the surface tension that that is building . say when i take a short break right now we're back. we'll continue talking to steve jacobson, chief investment officer at sacks of mine talking about trends and predictions of next year. stay with us. with join me every posted on the alex simon shows i'll be speaking to guess in the world of politics, small business. i'm sure business. i'll see you then. oh

right now, there are 2000000000 people who are overweight or obese. it's profitable to sell food that he's fancy and sugary and salty. i'm addicted. it's not at the individual level. it's not individual willpower. and if we go on believing that will never change this obesity epidemic, that industry has been influencing very deeply, the medical and scientific establishment. so what's driving the obesity epidemic? it's corporate in

and we're back with stain jacob's inches investment officer attacks a bank stain. so your team predicts that the fight against fossil fuels will be put on hold. and that's happening already. i mean, just looking at the g 20 or the cop 26. some is where our leader is agreed that they initially set green energy transition goes where part 2 emissions is it looking like we haven't really afford the bright, green future that we need to survive on this planet? all we can, we can afford it, but the way we are executing on the plan to get to that point is not done correctly . i think if, if you wanna, you know, sort of make it very simplistic, you can argue the least the rest and well thinks that if you increase the amount of electric vehicles on the road, you have a good way of actually getting to a c o 2 emission standard, which of course is not true, but what we're doing right now with the way we are executing it is that we are h accusing on getting more money, more flow at taxonomy in terms of the you,

which is entirely billed and green transformation and investments but when you are d cup and icing you are major licensed economy. and then on top of that, which is the single most i outstanding issue and the biggest risk full any of beslee, including the russians. we are under investing into the mining and into the energy sector. the cape x, the capital expend, the used into that sector is close 0. and this is at a time where electricity consumption globally is still growing at 6 to 7 percent with the global economy only growing at $3.00 to $4.00. in other words, the electricity consumption is accelerating relatively to the overall grocer. society, meaning people are using more electricity. the ability to do a bass load energy generation in europe is of all time low. this week alone, we had the highest energy prices ever in france, 205 euros for kill yvette. we have a deficient cheese in terms of the energy,

which means basically for the europeans, a sector right now, we have more dependent on the flow from russia than ever before. while we had the same time across still have discussion whether no stream should be implemented here . now i in the future and for god's sake stop me from, from being involved that i have no opinion that, but that, that's definitely just the practical case. and you know, the way this, there's, when the looks, it's going to be colder. and the storage of energy is low again, also which may instead the inflationary pressure, the energy crisis, as a concept is already there. the you have to, to give us a little bit of an excuse in terms of the fossil energy. coal, remember we wrote this before the cop $26.00, but you actually do right? if you look at the evolution of us going on politically globally, japan has pivoted towards small nuclear power. felon is now trying to get you to accept nuclear, paula and reclassifying it. we seen a utilities in the u. k. is coal burning,

decommission atomic plants in the u. s. is being reopened. so clearly, you know, at the end of the day, the green transformation is a political agenda. getting electricity coming out, those switches that is right behind you. that is a political need that needs to be filled on a daily basis. now that politician feels his, hence, we will see this reef classification and have read definition off the move towards a, a very good objective fall self in society. but something that needs to be done in an applicable and accountable way. so you also look at major cultural shifts, not only economic or political, and you predict the more nish internet revolution on facebook that will see a mass exodus of young people from that platform. or you think facebook will dine? 2020. no. what will we saying is that the youth again, once, don't want to be defined by a commercial algorithm, ada major platform. they,

i increasingly moving away. we see that some of the fastest growing apps in the world today is apps which is using the same sort of connectivity and being on that old times, the fastest rising as far as i know, social media platform, right. i was a french app, which is using the concept of instagram. well, way i used to gram account than everybody else is. the game is always telling you, telling people how well you're doing, how the sun is shining, how good the food is, how expensive? because is, this phone is turning things around and saying, this is cindy. you once a day, a 5 minutes span by which you have to upload a picture. so this is showing you the reality of real life, the good side, the bad side, the downside and everything else. on top of that, you can only engage in the social platform if you are a member and contributing yourself. of course, the instagram is little bit like streaming services or tv in the old days. today's it is, is it is almost a pay per view sort of the way to seeing. so what we're seeing is that the young

people increasingly will claim and want to be on platforms, which is expressing their view, their way of interpreter will not a commercial chopped down version of it. i think that is the garage root. going back to what you said earlier, if you use the analogy of to you for evolution, $960.00 s, and every definition off, what is it that we want relatively to what the step isn't want? because however much opt out up on a beat that, that, that met, those wants to be, they all run by people who are, you know, very different in age, in wealth and in political opinion, that the management of these companies. and that's going to be increased the an issue not only from facebook, global to, from instagram, and tick tock and everything else. i think we will have smaller, more agile, more precise expression of people's interest going forward underneath that. also person to think that, you know, private private data, urgency is, is a major issue even for young people today. we also put

a woman's crusade on gender and equality and the gender pay gap in particular. so the world economic forum says before the pandemic, it would take 99 years to close this gap. now 136 years. since we don't know how long this to them equal rag and how many more are too com or you know, when it will be other blacks once a man, it will be possible to fix this gap. what do you think? now we're saying that, listen, maybe the way to get you joel pen e cook penya at send a bay is not to ask for it, but to take it. and the way they can conduct that in the arrays. but if we make is that, you know, if you're ready to use something like a rated or make a women's group that basically gather together and, and accumulate all of the wells that these women expression and going off to what we called the pet yaki of companies so basically, you know, dissing companies which is not trying to close to pay gap who is not getting the right amount of c suite women of rabbits and say no,

certainly on the board as well. and on top of that, you can also find companies. we're just doing the opposite and go off them. i think you underestimate disability, but most importantly, for me actually is the fact that the pers, or the size of the a u. m. sitting where women is, even in the most patriotic societies in world like in the middle east, it is almost always the women that sits on top off the cache. and d have risk willingness. so i actually think over the next 22 years, you will see the 1st women only bang. you will see the 1st women only broker. i don't honestly understand why no one's ever done that. you know, why isn't there a women's only broker? i mean, if you look at the whole expression off commercials in financial markets is always a male person is always about cause and powerful and, and, and the signal the call is old. and he said a man to read about making it all women's, all female. ah, segregating once again,

you know, women alone, men alone or it's about equality and having as much women and men and maybe working on the same ground. but on equal conditions, i think in know a good philosophical question which has been to try to be addressed for 300 years. is it about equal rights? it's about equality for every one, noise it about equal rights to everybody. our push is for equal rice, everybody to have their say, this concept that you can equally treat all people with same is rubbish, made the strongest constitution a world including my own customers. and then mine is based on the principle that everyone should have. the ability to choose themselves, and i'm simply just saying, instead of asking for this stuff, the women could get together and start to put pressure on companies. doesn't mean the company's needs to change what products to sell, how they do it, only to represent it. not only it is the reputation off that they are based, nothing on earth. physically, practically,

that the taste of women should be painless. i don't even understand the argument practically, and i'm at you the wrong person. i'm a 50 year old white male, right? i'm the a typical person you're talking about there's, i'm a should even be allowed to talk about but, but i want this to happen. i don't really care whether it's, it's based on one thing to do, but you're right to point out for this to succeed. it has to be about equal rights to express in that view and that's why something like read it. women's army would be a great way to do it because that's basically just saying you and other women just go on a certain platform. you agree that this, that, and the other companies good and then you support it and you sell the companies you don't like in that way. you can show far more power than you can get by the factors . i agree in the political system. what scientific revolutions, while we worry about, you know, income inequality, climate change, and all that science is making, absolute, giant leaps every year. and we have a prediction of the possible massive breakthrough in medicine. we seeing how

medicine is getting all the funding in this pandemic days. is quite likely how would a major breakthrough in, as your prediction says, lynn cavity impact everything else? well, let's take the negative and then talk a lot about the pasta roster. but the negative side is that we have difficulties dealing with, with the world today, with 7 to 7000000000 people in it. imagine to be all the 25 years longer than theoretically, they'll be 10 to 11000000000 people totally in the world that will make the metropolitan issues of traffic and pollution bigger. it will make any quality in a city speak properly, and it will certainly make the ability to, to deal with the green transformation slower and more prolonged opposite. that's it's of course, the fact that as we live longer and the way we are achieving that and you're absolutely right. the medical breakthrough in this space is absolutely incredible. so what we figured out scientifically is that there's not a single pill that's not a single way that you improve your longevity. what actually happens is that most

people die from lack of what is called resilience. resiliency is the fact you get attacked by a disease. your ability to come back from that at ease they did, they find how long you live. now with this is chris bar where gene editing cell reform, again, regeneration cells, splitting organ transplants being possible both artificially and practically. you can grow it. you can, you have medical platforms, the whole virus, of course, sits on this as well. what we actually doing is that as you go to my age and older, our brazilian will be improved simply because, you know, in 510 years from now we potentially will be able to, to detect early science or cancer. and before it gets into a hospital treatment, we can do precision medicine, a gene editing that make sure that this is not evolving into a real attack on your resilience. the upside of that, of course, is that what is the single biggest cost to the russian society as is aging,

is to health care costs. imagine we have a whole health, a health care system that just 1st off has 50 percent preventive medicine and 50 percent treatment that will come at more than half the price of what it is to day and ultimate move to a platform where 80 percent of old deceased is, is treatable or diagnosed before people get into the hospital to they'll reduce the massive burden off, you know, the, the, the cost of society and running as society with that as aging. that could be a massive offset. but most importantly, and i and i have to smile when i say that is for me as an investor. i know for a fact when you project bought the flow, there is into this sector. it will be growing at roughly 25 percent of year for the next 10 years. this is the single biggest ad growth that i've seen in anything in terms of, of markets ever in, in my life. and i'm pretty sure that the offside of the reduced cost is why society

wants it. and as an investor, of course, i want to hang on to this. the problem is, as you well know, you, you cannot ask me, what is the free stock you buy to represent this? i don't know because he's old very merging. it's very fragmented in terms of the market doctor, but i know for a fact that is all moving along the same path towards at great utility for society and massive return for investors in what you know is being cornered the next gen medicine. thank you so much for this wonderful insight stain. well, i wish you all the best of luck and i wish all your positive predictions to come true for our sake anyways. i wish all of us to be more aware of everything that is going on. anything that is the only way to go forward, happy holidays and stay safe. and i hope we talk soon, maybe next year to re evaluate next year's predictions. when came true, it didn't absolutely. and best of holidays to all my friends in russia,

i'm coming in to moscow 23 times a year. so i hope 22. the predicts of a trends you, i hope will happen, is that i'll spend more time in russia with my friends and colleagues and clients and, and it's always a pleasure to talk to you guys, so best wishes to the whole family at the station. and then everyone who's listening, so best of luck everybody. thanks dan. take care. take care bye. ah ah, working room or should she popped in? she said, well, i'm getting ready to go shopping for christmas and i wish

it was a good bye to another shooting another safe part of american life. shattered by violence. the gunman was armed with an 8 or 15, semi automatic rifle. when the issue comes home, it's time to act. when we're filing on this issue, the other side wins by default, lady that lived over there. i was walking one of the dogs, which is why do you wear again? were you scared with nothing? you could take it off of me. i think the people need to take responsibility into their own hands and be prepared if those kind of weapons were less available. we wouldn't have a lot of shootings that we certainly wouldn't have. the number address with both are headline story.